Unreliable sources
Monday, Apr 2, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* First up…
* From the bill…
Any school district that reduces its operational property tax levy for the 2019-2020 school year in relation to the district’s operational property tax levy for the 2018-2019 school year is eligible to receive a distribution from the [Education Property Tax Relief Fund].
* Also…
Provides that, beginning on January 1, 2018, the rate of [the state’s sales tax] shall be 5.75% (currently, 6.25%).
However, those income tax rates of his are gonna need to be readjusted.
* Next…
The Tribune focused on three upper middle class families from Naperville, Bolingbrook and Homer Glen.
* More…
As for what’s causing the population loss, [Chicago demographer Rob Paral] says it’s a “complex stew” of factors that includes race, income and immigration.
“One way to explain the population loss is largely due, in part, to African-Americans leaving. We’ve had a dramatic departure of blacks from Illinois to southern states,” he said, adding the trend has been going on for decades. In addition, he said the Latino population is growing more slowly, while whites are growing in the city but declining in the suburbs.
Last year Paral conducted a study that compared the number of whites living in Chicago and elsewhere in Illinois. Historically, whites who lived in the city had lower incomes than others across the state. But now that trend has reversed, according to Paral. “Whites in the city are wealthier than elsewhere in the state,” he said. They’re moving to the city for high-paying jobs that require educated and skilled applicants, he added.
Immigration has also dropped off in recent years. From the ‘80s to the early 2000s, “Illinois had really high immigration numbers, (which) covered up some of the other problems we’re talking about,” Paral said. In 2007, immigration, especially from Mexico, began declining nationally and in Illinois.
- Politically incorrect - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:23 pm:
And taking a job in Michigan. Not perfect, sure has its problems, but man that $8 billion backlog and $130 billion pension unfunded liability ain’t gonna tax itself.
Michigan moved to 401k for employees 20 years ago. My new county of Macomb has a funded ratio of 99%. Hate to say the grass is greener.
- TheRambler - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:25 pm:
I wonder how many people would not have left if we didn’t have a Governor who constantly screamed about how horrible Illinois was and how much better every other state is. Oh and that the budget impasse, can’t forget that.
- IllinoisBoi - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:28 pm:
You’d think Republicans would love the idea that the state’s population loss is largely due to the departure of African-Americans and the slow growth of Hispanics — largely Democratic voters.
- PublicServant - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:30 pm:
As soon as I encounter the words “flee”, or “flight” in relation to population in an article, I move on to non-propaganda posthaste.
And IPI and the Trib are propaganda poster-children.
- Lukas jackson - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:31 pm:
TheRambler - Illinois is horrible. The gov is telling the truth, unfortunately he’s incompetent and can’t get the job done. I moved from Chicago to Texas last years and it was the best decision I made.
- OneMan - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:34 pm:
Yeah, everything was peachy keen until three years ago. Property and income taxes were low, no governors going to jail, everything was fine.
Go visit some nearby state flagship colleges and see how much less a kid with a good ACT score from Illinois can attend for vs the resident cost in Illinois.
I am going to go out on a limb here and say that people who are deciding to go are not thinking, well if it wasn’t for that governor saying that stuff I wouldn’t have a reason to move.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:35 pm:
Total net outmigration was 33,000. Net outmigration of graduating HS seniors going into higher ed was around 19,000. (One of the three families highlighted in the Trib story left for less expensive higher ed.) It would be nice to see more attention paid to higher ed as a key aspect of this issue.
- NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:35 pm:
You have to give it up to both parties for their long-term neglect of the finances of this state. It’s beautiful to then read the diatribes from those who refuse to acknowledge the role their people played in this mess. Boy it’s just gonna be so great when the Dems control everything again next year. Can’t wait for all our problems to end.
- Stand Tall - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:36 pm:
Migration data from the Internal Revenue Service, or IRS, show that as of tax year 2014, the average income of taxpayers leaving Illinois was $77,000 per year compared to an average income of $57,000 per year for those moving into Illinois.Jan 3, 2017 - I wouldn’t call $77,000 a salary that most blacks that left Illinois were making. We have a problem that the Democrats do not want to recognize.
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:36 pm:
Who are you going to believe? Burning Hair Katrina with her hand-picked, self-serving anecdotes or some pointdexter demographer with fancy book-learnin’ who’s actually studied the issue on an objective, macro basis over time?
Katrina recently hosted a forum on the “Illinois Exodus” at City Club of Chicago.
Who was on the panel for this deep dive into a complex subject? U of C economists? Northwestern demographers? DePaul historians?
Katrina. Dan Proft. Mary Mitchell. Roderick Sawyer.
You can’t make that stuff up. They should have held it at Second City rather than Maggianos.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:42 pm:
“Yeah, everything was peachy keen until three years ago. Property and income taxes were low, no governors going to jail, everything was fine.”
Things are much worse under Rauner. Why won’t conservatives take ownership for his horrible governance? Don’t they want people to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and be accountable? The dude was a bloody CEO, for crying out loud.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:45 pm:
Lukas Jackson- so you moved to TX and still follow Illinois politics on Capfax?
Perfidy
I don’t believe you for a second
That being said,
You could be someone
Paid to gaslight
Obfuscate
And troll from another state.
That I would believe
Given the rights’
Penchant for using
Foreign social media agitators.
Nah, I’m betting you still live
In a dorm room.
In Illinois.
- Roman - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:50 pm:
== The Tribune focused on three upper middle class families ==
No surprise.
@wordslinger nailed it.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 12:56 pm:
To the Post,
The Tribune Edit Board, wholly owned by Rauner, will try to thread the needle for Bruce by saying “Madigan” and at the same time ignoring the 3 years of Rauner.
If Quinn failed, how can the same measure say Rauner has succeeded? Rauner has failed.
“Example”?
Check this out. This is “fun”. From the Editorial…
===Heard voted for Rauner in 2014 and thought the new governor might be able to change the tax-and-spend culture of Springfield. But the Democrats blocked Rauner’s agenda. Heard places the blame “square on the shoulder of (House Speaker) Michael Madigan and the powerful interests of Chicago. The state just appears to be getting more and more liberal. They’re going to be running out of people to take things from.”===
They find someone who “blames Madigan”, leaves, and blames “others” for a state turning “liberal”…
…and Rauner gets a convenient “pass”. Rauner’s three years. Meh.
What will be different in a Rauner second term if Rauner can’t stop “liberals” now?
This is as phony of “just found this person randomly” as it gets.
Pritzker’s Crew…
You realize… this is an absolute direct response to “Rauner Failed Me”, Twitter right? Your continued pressure is now drawing the Trib Edit Board to help.
Rauner failed is scary. Already, Rauner needs to create an answer, that’s a phony premise from Jump Street.
You understand there will be no quarter given.
Every move, statement, point, counter-point, “fact”, then, Rauner is going to make “Bruce Rauner failed” a threading of a needle of “Madigan” and defeating his Skyhook playbook.
Kept the pressure on. This is but a beginning.
Sadly.
- IPI - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:00 pm:
1) The tax swap is not going to change the fact that all Illinoisans will see their income tax bill go up.
2) Martwick wants to cut sales taxes and raise the income tax. The taxation of income (capital and labor) is less efficient than taxes on goods and services because capital and labor are more responsive to tax policy changes. Taxes that have the least distortionary effect on the economy are taxes on commodities that are relatively inelastic. Martwick’s proposed sales tax decrease coupled with higher income taxes fly in the face of theory and evidence on optimal taxation.
3) Martwick’s plan to provide property tax relief by raising the income tax does nothing to provide relief since the income tax increase will cause incomes (adjusted for the cost of living) to decrease. With a decline in real incomes, property taxes paid as a share of income may actually increase under Martwick’s plan.
4) Martwick fails math and econ 101. His current tax plan would fail to generate enough revenue to do what he promises: sales and property tax cuts, school funding increases and an additional $1B contribution to pensions each year. This is precisely why, in order to be able to do all those things, he would need a tax increase that lowers living standards for every Illinoisan (not just the super rich).
- Stones - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:02 pm:
My wife and I were both State employees who, despite being eligible to retire felt like we could have put a few more good years in. When the State couldn’t agree on a budget for two years (and even if they had there would likely be no money for a modest raise anyway) it became apparent that retirement and relocation to Florida was our best option. Although Illinois will always be home to us it is the best move we ever made on so many levels.
- Annonin' - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:04 pm:
Katrina’s three “witnesses” really need to appear. Hard to believe a Naperville family moved to GA and high performing schools. Hard to think SC engineering degree goes farther than U of I.
They whine about prop taxes. Those are set my locally elected folks not Madigan
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:05 pm:
–Migration data from the Internal Revenue Service, or IRS, show that as of tax year 2014, the average income of taxpayers leaving Illinois was $77,000 per year compared to an average income of $57,000 per year for those moving into Illinois.Jan 3, 2017 - I wouldn’t call $77,000 a salary that most blacks that left Illinois were making. –
So are you of the opinion that the documented black flight from Chicago isn’t happening?
Is it poor black people moving into all those apartment and condo towers going up in the Greater Loop?
Doesn’t even pass the eyeball test, much less any actual scholarship on the issue.
- Anonymous - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:10 pm:
They have good reason to call him out. Bill assigned to subcommittee and Martwick actively promoting. What school district do you know of that would reduce its operational property tax levy??
- Steve - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:21 pm:
One has to take Mr. Martwick and his proposal very seriously . Who’s going to stop these state income tax rate hikes? High tax states tend to become even higher tax places over time. Mr. Martiwick’s bill has a better change of becoming law than public pensions being cut…
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:27 pm:
I totally don’t believe
The majority
Of people who claim
To have moved from this state
And still participate in this blog
(Honestly no offense intended Rich. I am truly addicted to this blog but i can honestly say I wouldn’t care if I didn’t live in Illinois)
- Stand Tall - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:28 pm:
From the article - “Why are people ditching Illinois? What might a governor, a legislature, do to keep them? How should voters who remain here factor this intensifying Illinois exodus into their votes on Nov. 6? We’ve been tracking down expatriates and reaching out to Illinoisans who face a wrenching choice: Do we stay or go? From now until the election, we’ll introduce you to some of these people. Today, from the expats, meet the Carpenters, the Heards and the Salvas.”
Sounds like they will probably be interviewing and featuring a lot more people and their stories and no doubt at all income levels. Come down state and we will show you how “bad governance” in the past as decimated the middle class. A town of what used to be 38,000 that lost three large factories in the last 30 years and struggle to have 30,000 people with well over 50% of the students qualify for free lunch. 1500 vacated homes decaying with a few hundred already tore down.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:29 pm:
===Sounds like they will probably be interviewing and featuring a lot more people===
lol.
OK, whatever you say.
- Stand Tall - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:30 pm:
Those number are for a progressive tax that still wouldn’t keep up with expenditures not even counting the pension debt and unfunded retiree healthcare I believe.
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:38 pm:
–Come down state and we will show you how “bad governance” in the past as decimated the middle class. A town of what used to be 38,000 that lost three large factories in the last 30 years and struggle to have 30,000 people with well over 50% of the students qualify for free lunch. 1500 vacated homes decaying with a few hundred already tore down.–
You’re buying a pig in a poke if you believe state government is the cause of or solution to economic displacement caused largely by globalization and robotics.
There are far more powerful factors at play. Politicians promising the moon on manufacturing are corporate welfare snake-oil peddlers.
That’s not an argument for the current competence of state government.
But hold their feet to their fire on their core responsibilities, such as education, infrastructure and public safety. Those they can impact directly, and are the foundations of economic growth.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:43 pm:
===Hard to think SC engineering degree goes farther than U of I.===
lol
You may need to get “out” more.
When schools like South Carolina say…
“We’re giving you $115,000 worth of education, and with that the chance for others in your family to go to college… and you’ll have no debt… “
… only the snobby will say.
“Yeah, we were offered a full ride for a degree that still requires the same licensing requirements, but we felt it was important to put our 22 year old recent college grad $65,000+ in debt because it’s prestigious”
Yep. You may need to get out more.
And I say ALL this… with great respect.
- City Zen - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:43 pm:
The property tax relief fund sorely needs some real world context. If, per the IPI example, the St. Clair County family would see a $554 tax hike but only $55 in property tax relief from this fund, why would they support such a tax hike? If it’s not dollar for dollar reduction, Illinois property taxes remain obscenely high.
- Stones - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:50 pm:
Honeybear @ 1:27-
I can assure you that even though we no longer live in Illinois I still keep up with the political goings on through this blog and newspapers. I was raised in a political family - it is part of who I am. I rarely engage in anything political in Florida other than voting however.
- jdcolombo - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:54 pm:
Illinois’ problems are in fact easily solvable if there were the political will to do so. Illinois’ GDP for 2016 was $800 billion. If we taxed that GDP at an overall rate of 5%, it would produce $40 billion, more than enough to pay our bills, provide modest investments in education and infrastructure, and over time pay off our pension debt, without decimating social services.
Actual studies of “business climate” by experts in economics and business administration have found over and over again that tax rates are not nearly as important in fostering a good business climate as (1) proximity to customers (2) educated workforce and (3) infrastructure (primarily transportation infrastructure. STABLE government is also high on the list, along with a simplified regulatory environment (not necessarily “low” regulation, but regulation that permits ease of compliance).
If low taxes were the end-all of economic prosperity, Oklahoma and Kansas would be economic powerhouses. After all, their Republican governors and legislatures told everyone that would happen. Just dramatically lower the tax rate and the place will be an economic paradise. Instead, they are economic disasters. And conversely, states like New York and California, both with very high tax rates, would be population-barren economic disasters, while just the opposite is true.
“Fixing” Illinois doesn’t require busting public unions, right to work laws, or dramatically lower tax rates. It requires sensible taxation (a graduated income tax coupled with lower property taxes would be a good place to start), top-notch public education that doesn’t cost an arm and leg (supported by that sensible taxation), and excellent transportation infrastructure. All that is doable by a governor and legislature working on the same page. It is NOT doable with four more years of Rauner/IPI/Proft war focused on all the WRONG “fixes.” One could only hope that Illinois was so terrible that Proft and his IPI buddies would leave for Florida! But apparently not.
- City Zen - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 1:59 pm:
==You’re buying a pig in a poke if you believe state government is the cause of or solution to economic displacement caused largely by globalization and robotics.==
While I mostly agree, areas like Tippecanoe County in Indiana have thrived under strong economic policies driven by state government. Its population was in decline, even w/ Purdue University, prior to Subaru and others moving in.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 2:22 pm:
Okay IPI lets dance
Point 1) The numbers I believe, as derived from Bob Bruno at U of I ( I think ) have that 90% of Southern Illinoisans will see atheir taxes go down. I believe households making over 260k. I do apologize for the non specifics or lack of citation.
Point 2) sales tax is set by the local government right? Who cares what Martwick wants. Also please stop trying to sound informed and educated. Really…..just stop.
Point 3) again…stop with the big boy talk.
Point 4) the reason for the fair tax is to
Start, just start
To address the unparalleled
Economic devastation
To our states
Credit rating -which makes borrowing cost more
Contractors-especially medical/hospitals, social services who are still owed millions each.
Jobs- thousands of jobs lost solely due to Rauner holding the state hostage.
Government itself- 35% reduction in state workforce already the smallest per capital in 2015. Agencies are non functional husks. Millions lost services they need.
All so folks like you
Privileged folks
Don’t have to pay more in taxes
Which can afford
You know what I call that?
Greed
The anti fair tax argument
Is driven by greed
The rich should pay more
Period
Your turn IPI
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 2:23 pm:
Second thought
It should be
Greed and selfishness
- Blue dog dem - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 2:27 pm:
How comes the people.I know in my small little world left.for high property taxes.
- Blue dog dem - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 2:29 pm:
…because of…
- Demoralized - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 2:43 pm:
==Tippecanoe County in Indiana==
I can see how that’s relevant to Illinois. /s/
- OneMan - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 2:46 pm:
And the Democrats responded by nominating another rich guy without government experience. Glad to see the lesson was learned…
Not sure if you noticed the primary a couple weeks ago where an underfunded conservative challenger from the right almost pulled off an upset. If she had not run ‘the ad’ she might have even pulled it off.
Perhaps you missed this article from that well-known liberal publication Mother Jones, oops I mean the National Review.
The Worst Republican Governor in America
https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2017/12/18/bruce-rauner-illinois-worst-republican-governor-america/
- supplied_demand - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 2:47 pm:
I know people who have moved to Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. All of them were surprised to see their income taxes go up. Most of them have since complained that property taxes are increasing in their (new) area due to population increases (schools and roads).
- City Zen - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 2:55 pm:
==Government itself- 35% reduction in state workforce already the smallest per capital in 2015.==
This metric really needs to be put to rest. This is typically the product of urbanization.
7 of the 10 most populous states rank in the bottom 10 govt workforce per capita numbers you cited. PA is knocking on the door at 11. Only MI and NC (two RTW states) significantly buck that trend. Even high tax CA is right on our heels.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 3:21 pm:
Zen City- nope, I’m going to fight you on it.
The smallest state workforce per capita was reported at the beginning of the Rauner administration. I cited it many times on this site.
But I can tell you as a current state worker and I wager any other state worker will confirm that we
Aspire to skeleton crew at this point.
I’m not making this up
Additionally about a year and a half ago, maybe two years I went agency by agency and added up the numbers. The old accountability.illinois.gov site was great because it let you set the. Year and then total in that agency. I totaled each agency for 2014,2015, and 2016. I may have even gotten 2017 but I can’t remember. (I’ve got to dig those sheets up again. ) Between 2015 and 2016 alone we lost 13%. With the new site you can’t see the totals and by what year. Believe me or not. I don’t care. Ask any state worker and they will most likely report their office is critically understaffed.
- anon2 - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 3:33 pm:
=== her hand-picked, self-serving anecdotes ===
Here’s what Gallup found in 2014: In Illinois, 8 percent of those who said they were leaving claimed it was because of taxes (versus 14 percent of New York respondents), 26 percent of Illinoisans who said they were leaving claimed it was work/business related, 17 percent said weather/location, 15 percent said it was for a quality of life change, 9 percent said cost of living, and 6 percent said it was for family/friends or school related. https://capitolfax.com/2014/04/30/gallup-half-of-illinoisans-would-leave-if-they-could/
- City Zen - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 3:41 pm:
Honeybear - I do not doubt we have one of the smallest state workforces per capita, nor am I defending it. I’m just saying in relation to similar high population states, we are no outlier.
The only other state comparable to Illinois that has a great ranking in this regard is Washington, the state with no state income tax. Otherwise, it’s primarily low population/GDP states.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 3:52 pm:
“And the Democrats responded by nominating another rich guy without government experience. Glad to see the lesson was learned…”
We don’t know and can’t judge what hasn’t happened yet. Pritzker has no governmental record and should not be judged in that regard until he does. Rauner has a record, and it’s terrible. How many gave Rauner a chance and voted for him because he had no record?
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 4:13 pm:
–This metric really needs to be put to rest. This is typically the product of urbanization.–
Not sure how you landed there. “Urbanization” has been going on for more than 100 years.
Perhaps you forgot about privatization?
That’s the historical shift of the last few decades where you contract with private vendors to provide services formerly provided by state employees.
And then, in Rauner’s case, you don’t pay them for two years, they go out of business and the services aren’t offered at all.
Great success.
- City Zen - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 4:40 pm:
@word - Urbanization as in more densely populated states and more populous in general. WY/ND/AK all rank high whereas CA/NY/FL rank near the bottom with Illinois. If prioritization is a culprit, which I’m sure at some level it is, then it is a culprit in all the other states just like us.
Not a judgment on right or wrong, just that we are not an outlier.
- Four Red Stars - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 5:26 pm:
To IPI:
1) The tax swap is not going to change the fact that all Illinoisans will see their income tax bill go up.
- The tax rates in Martwick’s proposal are nearly identical to the tax rates in that “great” state up north (Wisconsin) that you like to crow about constantly (when using WI “married filing separately” rates). The only major exception is income between $164,900 and $225,000, which Wisconsin taxes at 7.65%, and the bill would tax at the LOWER rate of 6.27%. Both scenarios tax/would tax income over $225,000 at 7.65%.
2) Martwick wants to cut sales taxes and raise the income tax. The taxation of income (capital and labor) is less efficient than taxes on goods and services because capital and labor are more responsive to tax policy changes. Taxes that have the least distortionary effect on the economy are taxes on commodities that are relatively inelastic. Martwick’s proposed sales tax decrease coupled with higher income taxes fly in the face of theory and evidence on optimal taxation.
- You’re right. Instead of decreasing the sales tax burden, which would benefit anyone who buys (almost) anything in Illinois, we can spend that money on decreasing the pension liability (on top of the bill’s $1 billion influx towards that cause).
3) Martwick’s plan to provide property tax relief by raising the income tax does nothing to provide relief since the income tax increase will cause incomes (adjusted for the cost of living) to decrease. With a decline in real incomes, property taxes paid as a share of income may actually increase under Martwick’s plan.
- Again, you’re right. Instead of decreasing the property tax burden, which would benefit most property owners in Illinois, we can spend that money on decreasing the pension liability (on top of the bill’s $1 billion influx towards that cause, and on top of the savings from the bill’s proposed sales tax decrease that you rejected). Moreover, decreasing the property tax levy for just one year would result in lower property taxes year over year for PTELL districts; but, apparently, you aren’t interested in something like that. Also, if we take what you say about property tax rates and their alleged negative effect on business growth, this proposal should help business because it decreases the property tax, decreases the sales tax, and holds the corporate income tax steady.
4) Martwick fails math and econ 101. His current tax plan would fail to generate enough revenue to do what he promises: sales and property tax cuts, school funding increases and an additional $1B contribution to pensions each year. This is precisely why, in order to be able to do all those things, he would need a tax increase that lowers living standards for every Illinoisan (not just the super rich).
- Pretty sure if you run the numbers in the bill through COGFA, you’ll get pretty close to an even exchange, using data from 2015 (which were the latest numbers available when the bill was drafted).
- Anonymous - Monday, Apr 2, 18 @ 7:38 pm:
In 1982, finance class at Arizona State, we studied the migration of baby boomers to warmer climates. What is occurring is not a surprise nor an easy cause and effect. Once retired and financially comfortable the boomers are selling year round summer.