GOMB: State needs another $3+ billion a year to stay even
Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018
Click here for the GOMB projection.
* A couple of caveats before beginning. This is the economic forecast used for the revenue estimates…
There’s also some editorializing by the Rauner-controlled office…
Does that “meaningful economic and political structural changes” phrase mean “right to work and term limits”?
* Despite the governor’s repeated claims during the campaign that the first budget he signed into law is balanced, his GOMB is projecting a deficit at the end of this fiscal year of $546 million, plus maybe another $500 million more if Rauner loses his AFSCME step increase case.
The projection for FY20 (Pritzker’s first full fiscal year) includes an overall resources decrease of about $100 million, due mainly to a $400 million disappearance of interfund borrowing and a super-anemic projected state tax revenue increase of just $331 million (1 percent). GOMB projects a spending increase of about $2 billion, driven mainly by pensions ($1.1 billion), K-12 education ($400 million) and healthcare ($400 million).
* Looking more long-term, of that grand total of $16 billion or so in projected structural budget deficits racked up over the next five fiscal years, about $2.3 billion of that is due to pensions. Another $1.8 billion is for K-12 education, $1.3 billion for AFSCME step increases, $1.1 billion for healthcare, $459 million for human services, $334 million for employee group health insurance and $181 million for public safety.
Not to mention that the state’s projected bill backlog at the end of the current fiscal year is $7.8 billion.