The blue suburban wave
Tuesday, Nov 27, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We’ve talked a lot about the Democrats’ gains in DuPage and Lake counties. Greg Hinz takes a look at them plus these others…
In Will County, Democrats swept the countywide spots, taking control of the clerk’s job for the first time in 80 years. They also picked up four spots on the county board and now have a majority. […]
Republicans did better in Kane County, retaining the clerk’s and treasurer’s slots but losing to a Democrat for sheriff. Democrats, though, won seven of the 13 county board seats up for election. And former Democratic state Sen. Mike Noland defeated County Circuit Court Clerk (and former Kane County GOP Chairman) Thomas Hartwell for a Circuit Court judgeship.
If Republicans have a stronghold left in suburbia, it’s in McHenry County, which still is largely rural.
Rauner won there by better than 10 percentage points, and Erika Harold, the GOP nominee for attorney general, led Raoul by more than 8. Republicans won all of the countywide positions up for a vote by a wide margin. But even there, Casten and Underwood got more votes than incumbent GOP Reps. Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren, respectively. And Democrats won a third of the 12 seats up for a vote on the county board.
* More on McHenry’s congressional vote…
One of the most dramatic turnarounds in the region was in McHenry County, where Democrats went from earning 40 percent of the House vote in 2016 to 51 percent this year.
- anon2 - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 12:00 pm:
The political environment has changed in the collar counties, as it had previously done in northwest Cook. If Republicans want to survive, they must adjust. Those continuing to run as hard-right conservatives, the way Proft wants them to, will have trouble winning a majority of the votes.
- illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 12:04 pm:
What is the population divide.Galesburg at 30000 remains blue. Does the switch occur just below that.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 12:10 pm:
The ILGOP needs to come to terms that the Rosemary Mulligans and Mark Beaubiens yet to be found need to be the candidates most sought in districts turning bluer and bluer.
The ILGOP needs to come to terms that candidates like the Bernie Pedersens and Maureen Murphys might not be the fits in the collars and Cook like they once were.
The ILGOP needs to come to terms that a party unwilling to… find who they are, and be who they are, and be welcoming to all who agree 80% of the time… see places where a majority party can be cobbled, it deserves these results time and time again.
I’ll know quite quick where the ILGOP wants to be in 6 years.
Quite quick.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 12:10 pm:
McHenry “largely rural?” Any county with over 300k people and a density of over 500 people per square mile is not what we think of as rural in the demographics biz. I do agree with anon2, and it hasn’t really been a secret in IL politics in the last century…moderate R’s have historically had much more success here than hard-right R’s.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 12:13 pm:
If Trump runs in 2020, it will be even worse for the down-ballot GOP candidates in the suburbs.
Consider: Roskam won by 18 points in 2016. After two years of Trump, he lost by 10 points. Hultgren also won by 18 points in 2016, then lost by four points two years later.
- McHenry Mike - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 2:21 pm:
Being from McHenry County it will be interesting to see the precinct by precinct breakdown there. Most of the population in the county is centered in the Eastern townships which are definitely suburban, comprising about 75% of the vote. The last time a congressional candidate won in McHenry County was the Melissa Bean race in 2006 where she won her McHenry County portion by about 50 votes, but her district did not include the rural areas. The Underwood race included all of the rural areas plus about half of the suburban, so her victory is particularly stunning. Underwood will have to vote somewhat conservatively, however, if she expects to repeat herself.
- PublicServant - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 2:39 pm:
Keep up with the Madigan theme. See how far that gets you. People don’t want blame. They want solutions. If you don’t have any, then you’re part of the problem. Oh yeah, and on the national level, stick with the blame Pelosi theme too because that worked (not).
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 2:47 pm:
2020 could be real interesting for down-ballot races if the economy takes a downturn plus Trump’s baggage.
- jaykaysr - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 4:15 pm:
Still doing the happy dance here in the 6th with Roskam on his way out.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 4:55 pm:
The current Republican strategy seems to be content in sacrificing suburban votes for rural votes that were never really in jeopardy to begin with. It’s hard to see much upside in this strategy.
- Union Thug Gramma - Tuesday, Nov 27, 18 @ 11:37 pm:
I’m happy to have a representative, in Anne Stava-Murray that will actually speak to me…didn’t have that in Sandack or Olson. Neither would come out of the floor or allow an appointment. Too bad Bridget didn’t defeat con Curran.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Nov 28, 18 @ 5:03 am:
==Too bad Bridget didn’t defeat con Curran.==
John Curran fought for his constituents being poisoned by Sterigenics. So there’s that.