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Good news for a change, but don’t go overboard

Tuesday, Jan 8, 2019

* From the latest COGFA report

Gross personal income tax is up [so far this fiscal year] by $931 million, or $777 million net. Gross sales tax receipts are up by $318 million, or $292 million net. Gross corporate income taxes are up by $188 million, or $165 million net. All other tax sources combined added $44 million to the year-to-date gain.

* News-Gazette editorial

In the last six months of 2018, overall tax receipts flowing into Illinois government coffers showed a nearly 10 percent hike, according to the Legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. Sales tax revenue was up 7.5 percent statewide, personal income tax collections were up 11 percent and corporate income taxes jumped 17.7 percent. Through the first six months of the year, all state revenue sources were up nearly $1.5 billion more than a year earlier. As UI economist J. Fred Giertz noted last week, it was an odd ending for outgoing Gov. Bruce Rauner, who spent much of four years belittling the performance of the state’s economy. […]

The booming national economy is a good part of the reason that Illinois’ economy is so strong. And there’s reason to believe, the COGFA economists say, that an economic slowdown is ahead.

“Overall, the economy appears to be ending 2018 on a strong note, but the future is more uncertain,” wrote analyst Benjamin Varner. “Economic prognosticators see a slowing of the economy in 2019, with further deterioration in 2020.”

Amid all the numbers, there’s a lesson for both Republicans and Democrats in Illinois: This is still a big state with a big, balanced, productive economy. But it needs to be tended carefully, especially if this welcome growth is to persist. That $1.5 billion (or more) in revenue growth this year is already claimed because the state still has a bill backlog estimated at $7.1 billion. And the Democratic Legislature and new Democratic governor have to be cautious about spending beyond the state’s means.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

35 Comments »
  1. - Annonin' - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 9:54 am:

    Impossible
    no element of GovJunk agenda enacted
    this must be fake news


  2. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 9:55 am:

    So, money in the pockets of consumers is a good thing—hmmm.

    That Trump tax cut must be working.


  3. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 9:57 am:

    Can Pritzker say ‘No’ to ‘wants’ and prioritize ‘needs’. Sounds crazy, but his (and all governors) success depends on doing this little thing.


  4. - Montrose - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 9:59 am:

    “Can Pritzker say ‘No’ to ‘wants’ and prioritize ‘needs’.”

    You make it sound like there is a crystal clear line that separates wants and needs.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:00 am:

    ===That Trump tax cut must be working.===

    Ask the stock market… lol

    To the post,

    We had a governor who bad-mouthed Illinois and refused budgets for a whole General Assembly…

    ===This is still a big state with a big, balanced, productive economy. But it needs to be tended carefully, especially if this welcome growth is to persist. That $1.5 billion (or more) in revenue growth this year is already claimed because the state still has a bill backlog estimated at $7.1 billion. And the Democratic Legislature and new Democratic governor have to be cautious about spending beyond the state’s means.===

    This next budget, actually having a budget to weigh and measure policy values, will be a critical first step for the new administration and the tone and tenor on the fiscal path they want walked, instead of no budget, period.


  6. - A guy - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:02 am:

    Ride this wave. We all need it.


  7. - PublicServant - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:05 am:

    ===the future is more uncertain===

    That guy’s worth every penny they’re paying him. /s


  8. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:05 am:

    Oh great spmeone touting trumps “tax cuts” .. Tell that tripe to Chicago homeowners.


  9. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:16 am:

    All that budget hostage damage, for nothing.

    Now it’s time to take this to the next level, since our state has been revenue-starved for decades, and raise taxes on the highest incomes. We need more revenue practically like life itself.

    California and Minnesota succeeded tremendously with their tax hikes on the rich. No one succeeded like they did, believe me. Granted, they’re two different states, but the gloom and doom of the right wing clearly didn’t happen—quite the opposite, which I suspect is a reason a progressive income tax is feared so much by certain people. Certain interests not only hate paying taxes, they want government to fail so they can shrink it to the point of drowning it in a proverbial bathtub. Clearly robust revenue would make those goals fail.


  10. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:18 am:

    –Amid all the numbers, there’s a lesson for both Republicans and Democrats in Illinois: This is still a big state with a big, balanced, productive economy.–

    LOL, where have you guys been during the Rauner/tronc/IPI Death Spiral nonsense the last four years?

    –That Trump tax cut must be working.–

    If “working” means doubling deficit spending in a growth economy — a kind of meth-like stimulus — then yes, it is working.

    I bet you think you’re one of those “fiscal conservatives,” don’t you?


  11. - Perrid - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:28 am:

    “So, money in the pockets of consumers is a good thing—hmmm.
    That Trump tax cut must be working.”

    Correlation and causation my friend.


  12. - TheInvisibleMan - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:33 am:

    With all the drum banging about how many people are leaving the state, it seems those who have left were a net negative for the state.

    It’s so unfortunate how reality and hard data are conflicting with the fear mongering of the republicans.

    It’s going to be more unfortunate(for them) when they continue to push that message in the face of this measured reality.


  13. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 11:03 am:

    This was the fiscal year that the state income tax increase took full effect. One of the reasons for more state income.


  14. - Deadbeat Conservative -TBB? - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 11:05 am:

    –That Trump tax cut must be working.–

    That Trump deficit-funded wartime tax cut must be “working”?

    There, fixed it.


  15. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 12:21 pm:

    So a tax increase, increased tax collections.


  16. - SSL - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 1:00 pm:

    It’s good news, and though I hate the Trump rhetoric, the results on a state and national level are undeniable. The economy is stronger than at any time in the prior administration, and that is despite a far more hawkish FRB. If the trade war yields any benefit, that should further bolster the economy and assist additional job creation.

    The economy will likely moderate in the next year, but that doesn’t mean it won’t still be growing. Hopefully this helps the state further.


  17. - City Zen - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 1:14 pm:

    ==We need more revenue practically like life itself.==

    This sounds even more absurd when spoken aloud.


  18. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 1:22 pm:

    –If the trade war yields any benefit, that should further bolster the economy and assist additional job creation. –

    Let’s see — loss of world’s largest soy buyer, lowest soy futures price in 10 years, lowest farm income in 15 years.

    Are those the “benefits” you’re going for?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/these-charts-show-how-soy-farmers-are-paying-the-trade-war-bill


  19. - SAP - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 1:46 pm:

    ==So a tax increase, increased tax collections.==

    In spite of the income tax increase, sales tax revenue was up 7.5%, which tells me that the income tax hike didn’t hurt discretionary spending. Maybe removing that whole budget uncertainty thingy was a good idea.


  20. - M - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 2:20 pm:

    None of the following happened due to Rauner’s so called policies:

    “Gross personal income tax is up [so far this fiscal year] by $931 million, or $777 million net. Gross sales tax receipts are up by $318 million, or $292 million net. Gross corporate income taxes are up by $188 million, or $165 million net. All other tax sources combined added $44 million to the year-to-date gain.”


  21. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 4:26 pm:

    Nothing to celebrate folks, my income.e tax bill went up $3k in 2018 and I didn’t get a salary increase from 2017. Oh, and my RE taxes increased too.


  22. - SSL - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 5:24 pm:

    It’s called a trade war for a reason. It isn’t going to be easy, and there will be pain for a period of time. The US is much better positioned to withstand this effort due to the current strength of the economy, so if not now when? Of course if you feel the current trade environment is fair, then by all means, knuckle under to China.

    Can kicking is the favorite past time of this state, and some on this blog. It’s easier than making a tough decision.


  23. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 5:27 pm:

    The trade war is a massive scam for thewntally challenged.


  24. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 5:36 pm:

    –It’s called a trade war for a reason. It isn’t going to be easy, and there will be pain for a period of time. The US is much better positioned to withstand this effort due to the current strength of the economy, so if not now when? Of course if you feel the current trade environment is fair, then by all means, knuckle under to China.–

    I think it’s terrific that you can regurgitate empty talking points.

    But what are you talking about, exactly? Do you have any clue?


  25. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 5:38 pm:

    ===It isn’t going to be easy, and there will be pain for a period of time. The US is much better positioned to withstand this effort due to the current strength of the economy, so if not now when? Of course if you feel the current trade environment is fair, then by all means, knuckle under to China.===

    “I’m frustrated too but taking steps to fix an unneeded trade war is more important than realizing real people like farmers may never recover”

    I’ve seen this movie before… create a phony crisis… crisis creates opportunity.

    Rauner lost.


  26. - SSL - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 6:42 pm:

    I didn’t mean to offend Thing 1 and Thing 2. I apologize.


  27. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 7:26 pm:

    “This sounds even more absurd when spoken aloud.”

    Of course it does, to destructive IPI types, who want to bankrupt out of financial obligations.


  28. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 9:03 pm:

    –I didn’t mean to offend Thing 1 and Thing 2. I apologize.–

    Not offended. But you’re not embarrassed by just chanting empty cable-babble? Are you pretending you’re on one of your shows?

    You’re claiming to talk economics. Back it up with some facts.


  29. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 8, 19 @ 10:05 pm:

    ===I didn’t mean to offend Thing 1 and Thing 2. I apologize.===

    If you’re worried about offending me and not your own words, that’s an interesting take to my response I guess.

    You want people hurt, but don’t call you on thinking it?

    Ok.


  30. - City Zen - Wednesday, Jan 9, 19 @ 8:55 am:

    ==Of course it does, to destructive IPI types==

    searches Google translator for English to GOM-speak

    Why do you hate taxpayers?


  31. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 9, 19 @ 9:01 am:

    ===Why do you hate taxpayers?===

    We’re all taxpayers.

    Be better. Thanks.


  32. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 9, 19 @ 9:05 am:

    Most of us get very little benefit from Illinois government when compared to it’s coat.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 9, 19 @ 9:09 am:

    ===Most of us get very little benefit…===

    Schools, roads, the courts, yeah, very little…

    LOL


  34. - City Zen - Wednesday, Jan 9, 19 @ 9:17 am:

    ==We’re all taxpayers.==

    Who said we weren’t?

    Be clearer. Thanks.


  35. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 9, 19 @ 9:20 am:

    === ===Why do you hate taxpayers?===

    We’re all taxpayers.===

    Who would hate themselves?

    You want me to be… clearer… clarify who hates themselves.

    LOL

    Again, be better.


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