* From the latest COGFA report…
Gross personal income tax is up [so far this fiscal year] by $931 million, or $777 million net. Gross sales tax receipts are up by $318 million, or $292 million net. Gross corporate income taxes are up by $188 million, or $165 million net. All other tax sources combined added $44 million to the year-to-date gain.
* News-Gazette editorial…
In the last six months of 2018, overall tax receipts flowing into Illinois government coffers showed a nearly 10 percent hike, according to the Legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. Sales tax revenue was up 7.5 percent statewide, personal income tax collections were up 11 percent and corporate income taxes jumped 17.7 percent. Through the first six months of the year, all state revenue sources were up nearly $1.5 billion more than a year earlier. As UI economist J. Fred Giertz noted last week, it was an odd ending for outgoing Gov. Bruce Rauner, who spent much of four years belittling the performance of the state’s economy. […]
The booming national economy is a good part of the reason that Illinois’ economy is so strong. And there’s reason to believe, the COGFA economists say, that an economic slowdown is ahead.
“Overall, the economy appears to be ending 2018 on a strong note, but the future is more uncertain,” wrote analyst Benjamin Varner. “Economic prognosticators see a slowing of the economy in 2019, with further deterioration in 2020.”
Amid all the numbers, there’s a lesson for both Republicans and Democrats in Illinois: This is still a big state with a big, balanced, productive economy. But it needs to be tended carefully, especially if this welcome growth is to persist. That $1.5 billion (or more) in revenue growth this year is already claimed because the state still has a bill backlog estimated at $7.1 billion. And the Democratic Legislature and new Democratic governor have to be cautious about spending beyond the state’s means.