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Fun with numbers

Monday, Dec 2, 2019

* Hilarious

The New York political consulting firm, MACIAS PR, has released the first political poll for Illinois’ Seventh Congressional District, revealing more than half of all Democratic voters believe Rep. Danny Davis should be fired. The poll also found 77 percent of registered Democratic voters are concerned over the source of Rep. Davis’ campaign funds.

The phone poll was conducted November 11th-21st and has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent. The Seventh Congressional District encompasses all of downtown Chicago going south to West Englewood, north to Old Town, east to the lake, and west through Garfield Park, Austin, Oak Park, and extending to Hillside.

A poll taken over eleven days of 236 registered Democratic voters? And check out the questions

1. ​ ​What is the most important issue to you? Press, 1) Healthcare [49%] 2) Criminal Justice Reform [24%] 3) Education [27%]

2. Your Congressman has missed a vote, every other week - should he be fired? Press, 1) Yes [52%] 2) No [47%]?

3. Your Congressman has received the super majority of his campaign funding from special interest groups. Does this concern you? “Yes” [77%] or “No” [22%].

Wait. No mention of Danny Davis’ name? This isn’t exactly an open seat. Davis was elected to Congress in 1996. He’s a well-known entity.

Also, I couldn’t get a definitive response about how many landlines and mobile phones they called. And no racial demographics were provided.

* So, who’s behind this? Back to the press release

The most recent FEC filing report also found Davis was having a difficult time raising money against a first-time Congressional candidate, Kristine Schanbacher, who outraised Davis approximately 3-1 and raised more money than all of the reported candidates combined. Schanbacher raised $166,172.34 in the most recent amended FEC filing report compared to $57,125 raised by Davis.

$166K isn’t exactly a ton of money in an expensive media market like Chicago and I’m pretty sure Davis can raise more cash.

Do better.

…Adding… As a commenter points out, as of 11:28 this morning Schanbacher still hadn’t filed her petitions.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

8 Comments »
  1. - 7th district voter - Monday, Dec 2, 19 @ 11:17 am:

    Other than Davis, only a republican candidate has filed to run thus far. So any of these potential primary challengers have about 5 hours left to get their signatures in.


  2. - The Captain - Monday, Dec 2, 19 @ 11:19 am:

    The MOE on a n of 236 is +/- 6.5%, meaning you can say with a 95% confidence level that the true answer lies somewhere in a 13 point band. Jeepers.


  3. - austinman - Monday, Dec 2, 19 @ 11:22 am:

    Danny wins, I live in the district, 166k wont buy the name ID to match the Congressman. Maybe the only called east of Damen and west of Austin?


  4. - Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 2, 19 @ 11:29 am:

    ===166k wont buy the name ID===

    That’s about one day on Chicago broadcast. Maybe.


  5. - Gooner - Monday, Dec 2, 19 @ 12:08 pm:

    Austinman, your comment is interesting.

    That’s been a big problem for Davis.

    I lived in his district since 1997, and left it a few months ago.

    He was invisible in that part of the district.
    Disclaimer: I’ve known Schanbacher for a few years, and although I know she’s running, I have zero involvement in her campaign.

    However, in light of that disclaimer, I will add that if she gets on the ballot, she will make a pretty good candidate. However, like all first time candidates, getting the signatures and raising money are huge tests, and she hasn’t passed either.


  6. - 'Goose - Monday, Dec 2, 19 @ 1:09 pm:

    I can’t believe otherwise intelligent people like Schanbacher are dumb enough to spend money on things like this


  7. - Gooner - Monday, Dec 2, 19 @ 2:46 pm:

    I was curious as to whether her plans changed, so I checked her campaign’s facebook page. It shows her in line with her petitions. It looks like she is getting them filed today.


  8. - Lynn - Monday, Dec 2, 19 @ 3:36 pm:

    Sad to see so much hate in here about this poll - and her. Seems like a great underdog candidate to beat out Davis who hasn’t done anything for us in years…


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