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Fifth poll has Bailey leading, this time by 20; Irvin slips to third place

Thursday, Jun 23, 2022

* The last poll taken in this race is here. The last Fabrizio Lee poll is here. New one…


Since the last Fabrizio Lee poll, taken three weeks ago, Bailey’s lead has grown by 13 points. Since the last public poll, taken 10-13 days ago, Bailey’s lead is up by 2 points, which is likely just background noise.

Sullivan’s support has grown by just four points since the last Fabrizio Lee poll. He’s up five points since the last public poll.

Irvin’s support has dropped by six points since the last Fabrizio Lee poll, and it’s fallen by three points since the last public poll.

Your thoughts?

…Adding… I told you about Sullivan’s ad buy yesterday, but here’s Politico

Jesse Sullivan is hoping for a big surge in the final days of the statewide GOP race for governor, though you wouldn’t know it from his TV ad buys. According to ad spending documentation provided to Playbook, Sullivan is spending $680,000 over the next week on TV, but nearly all of it — $568,000 — is being spent in the Chicago area.

Similar move: Fellow Republican Richard Irvin also pulled back on advertising downstate to focus on Chicago. This week, Irvin is spending $430,000, with $412,000 of it in Chicago.

Darren Bailey, the GOP frontrunner in recent polls, is spending $312,000 in Chicago and another $160,000 across the rest of the state. The downstate Republican is seen as already having sewn up the southern part of Illinois.

And in case you’re wondering, Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker is spending more than all of the Republicans combined — about $1 million in the Chicago area and $600,000 across the rest of the state.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

79 Comments
  1. - DuPage Dad - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:30 am:

    If it holds, its a great result if your name is JB Pritzker or anyone who supports him.


  2. - Joe Bidenopolous - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:31 am:

    I think Irvin had the earliest campaign peak ever - the day of the announcement


  3. - cermak_rd - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:31 am:

    Your description sounds like the setup to a math word problem.


  4. - Nick - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:32 am:

    If I had to actually bet money I would bet Irvin is second, not third.

    But coming in third to a carpet-bagging venture capitalist cosplaying as a theocrat would be downright embarrassing.


  5. - New Day - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:32 am:

    No wonder Ken Griffin is taking his ball and going home. What an epic failure by Griff and Team Z.


  6. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:33 am:

    If Bailey sits at ~37-41% *right now*… I mean… in a 6 (I keep forgetting there are 6) way race, tough sledding fir the 2-3 lagging.

    I will be watching early voting (numbers and locations) as to see something that seems like a movement for a challenger.

    Whew.


  7. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    “The only poll that matters is next Tuesday,” said every losing candidate ever.

    Now Mayor Irvin can turn his attention to the FBI and its questions about his step brother/friend/business partner.


  8. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    ==Sullivan’s support has grown by just four points since the last Fabrizio Lee poll. He’s up five points since the last public poll.==

    I mean, OK, I think that might count as a surge.

    Tho he’d basically need to eat up all of Irvin’s support to even get close to Bailey, and I don’t think he can get there with 7 days to go.


  9. - ;) - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    Agree with DuPage Dad. The biggest winners in this are JB Prtizker and the progressive wing of the party.


  10. - Brocco Bry - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    My neighbor complained constantly about living Illinois, even though she paid no income or property tax b/c of a service disability… She kinda reminds me of Ken. We don’t miss our neighbor.


  11. - Nick - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:35 am:

    Though regardless with numbers like this

    Irvin probably won’t win a single county on Tuesday


  12. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:36 am:

    I’m now interested in who can vote their pluses. I’m sure Bailey’s folks will crawl over broken glass for him, and Irvin should have enough seasoned field hands to get out the vote for him.

    But Sullivan? Boy, I dunno.


  13. - Roadrager - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:36 am:

    ==Irvin probably won’t win a single county on Tuesday==

    What would the odds be on him winning the city of Aurora?


  14. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:37 am:

    Shocking that standing for something (as misguided as it is) is outpolling standing for nothing, or whatever my consultants tell me to stand for.

    Congrats to the Sullivan campaign on their move from getting trounced and a distant third to getting trounced and a distant second.


  15. - Montrose - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:37 am:

    Clearly, Schimpf is riding that Tribune endorsement to victory /s


  16. - Sir Reel - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:38 am:

    Irvine comes across as inauthentic, packaged, scripted inauthentic. Bailey comes across as authentic, angry old white man authentic, but authentic.


  17. - Norseman - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:39 am:

    For the sake of his employees, let’s hope Griff picks an HQ building better than he picks political candidates.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:40 am:

    Dear Leader Durkin,

    Cannoli on me.

    I’m 37.4% kidding.

    Yikes.

    OW


  19. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:40 am:

    This is not surprising in the least. Irvin will come in third. Schimpf might overtake Rabine for fourth. And it’s Bailey winning a solid plurality. The race ends up pretty much like everyone thought it would before Irvin entered.


  20. - Regular democrat - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:41 am:

    Seems to be a trend here. People realized Irvin not really a Republican. Cant see in any scenario how Bailey can beat Pritzker Still trying to figure out how the brain trust for Irvin thought they could sell Irvin as a Republican. Strange year indeed


  21. - vern - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:41 am:

    More evidence that the Sullivan “surge” is pretty mild. With only about 20% undecided in this poll, Sullivan needs every one of them to go his way and pick up some more Irvin votes to squeak by.

    Hard to see it happening.


  22. - Long time Independent - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:47 am:

    Come Tuesday night or Wednesday morning their will be lots of finger pointing inside the GOP. A epic failure by each County Chairman that was on the Irvin band wagon. Also Mr Tracy needs to be held accountable


  23. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:47 am:

    ==Sullivan needs every one of them to go his way and pick up some more Irvin votes to squeak by. ==

    Or Irvin can continue to collapse with everything going to Sully? But you basically need Irvin to hit 0 to even get close.Your way sounds easier, but still not very easy.


  24. - Steve Rogers - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:53 am:

    I found video of Irvin’s free fall:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pUMzDEV-DE


  25. - JS Mill - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:55 am:

    So…if the polling is correct, I have to hear about Ellinoise failing skules for another 5 months?

    Heaven help me.


  26. - Cool Papa Bell - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:55 am:

    Take away: A Republican leads two Democrats in the GOP primary race for Governor.


  27. - phocion - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 11:59 am:

    Well, the 36% “base” looks like they’ll get their candidate. Don’t think Bailey will get much more than that percentage when Pritkzer demolishes him. Will the “base” learn that purity tests don’t win elections? Trump won because Hillary was a very flawed candidate. JB doesn’t have her kind of baggage.


  28. - SpiDem - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:05 pm:

    Pretty much everything that has happened so far in this campaign has been totally predictable since day 1.

    Nevertheless, it has been highly entertaining to watch.


  29. - Real - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:08 pm:

    When the IL GOP learned that Griffin was backing Irvin they started to have that same stubborn and fiesty attitude they had during the Rauner years… now they are quiet as a church mouse.


  30. - AlfondoGonz - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:08 pm:

    I hope these numbers are more an indictment of candidate Irvin than the GOP base.

    I fear that’s not the case.


  31. - New Day - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:09 pm:

    “Pretty much everything that has happened so far in this campaign has been totally predictable since day 1.”

    Yup. And predicted by me and lots of others. Money only goes so far when you fail to vet your candidates and they stink.


  32. - Been There - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:11 pm:

    14% for Irvin? If that holds up Griff and his 1,000 employees must have already left for Florida and forgot to early vote.


  33. - NIU Grad - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:11 pm:

    If Mayor Irvin wants to preserve his dignity, he should start acting like the moderate mayor he has always portrayed himself to be in the past. Right now he’s at the helm of a sinking ship that Griffin has abandoned, pretending to be someone else.


  34. - B Team - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:12 pm:

    Okay so the far righters (Proft, Ives, Uihlein) want to finally lead the ILGOP? Here you go, let’s all watch with popcorn this fall.


  35. - MoralMinority - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:15 pm:

    == Trump won because Hillary was a very flawed candidate.==Yeah, the other voters could probably hear me gritting my teeth as I voted for her. But, as previously pointed out by others, Illinois doesn’t have an Electoral College for gubernatorial elections, so everyone’s vote counts the same.


  36. - Real - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:20 pm:

    -Okay so the far righters (Proft, Ives, Uihlein) want to finally lead the ILGOP? Here you go, let’s all watch with popcorn this fall.-

    Can’t be any worse than the current establishment that leads it.


  37. - Sue - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:20 pm:

    And who says advertising doesn’t work. Pritzker spent 50 million destroying Irvin and now gets to face an unelectable. Not much different then blago getting Tombstone to enter the primary in 2002 and eliminating Vallas


  38. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:21 pm:

    ===Can’t be any worse===

    If I’ve learned anything in this life, it’s that things can always get worse.


  39. - Highland IL - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:21 pm:

    Is it too early to speculate on what office “professional” candidate Darren Bailey runs for next after losing the general election?


  40. - Craig Wright - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:24 pm:

    I’m skeptical of a poll released by Dan Proft’s guys that produces the exact results his guy Darren Bailey would like to see.


  41. - Real - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:31 pm:

    If Bailey loses the general it’s because Pritzker hasn’t been a bad Gov. The only candidate that is unelectable is the candidate that sold himself out. If you can be bought then that disqualifies you to be Gov over a state and that quality makes you unelectable.


  42. - MoralMinority - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:31 pm:

    ==Is it too early to speculate on what office “professional” candidate Darren Bailey runs for next after losing the general election?==There is usually an opening on the North Clay School Board.


  43. - G'Kar - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:35 pm:

    At this point are all the anti-Irvin ads I still see on Cable and during Cubs games simply beating a dead horse? Are the campaigns who are running them simply stuck with them, or could they ask the cable companies to show a different ad?


  44. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:40 pm:

    ===simply beating a dead horse?===

    Never take your foot off your opponent’s political throat.


  45. - MisterJayEm - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:41 pm:

    “let’s hope Griff picks an HQ building better than he picks political candidates”

    WBEZ says Griff’s building himself a bespoke new Miami HQ.

    No word on whether or not it will have a big, shiny microwave tower like the one he got himself in Aurora.

    – MrJM


  46. - Montrose - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:50 pm:

    “===simply beating a dead horse?===

    Never take your foot off your opponent’s political throat.”

    They clearly aren’t taking their foot off when it comes to people that play Yahtzee on their phone. Man, Aurora is Hell Hole AND I can’t large straight.


  47. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:52 pm:

    == could they ask the cable companies to show a different ad?==

    The could, but with 6 days to go they may not have another ad ready and probably don’t want to switch up their strategy.

    Make the rubble bounce.


  48. - Fayette County - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 12:58 pm:

    Bailey and Hubbard at the top of the GOP ticket cannot make moderate Illinois Republicans feel good.


  49. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:02 pm:

    ==But, as previously pointed out by others, Illinois doesn’t have an Electoral College for gubernatorial elections, so everyone’s vote counts the same. ==

    Also, Pritzker’s ratings have just never been as bad as Hillary’s were.

    (Cue Lucky Pierre: WHAT, YOU MEAN TO TELL ME THAT EVERYONE IN THE STATE DOESN’T SPIT ON A PHOTO OF JB PRITZER BEFORE THEY GO TO BED EVERY NIGHT? HOW OUT OF TOUCH YOU ARE.)


  50. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:09 pm:

    -I’m skeptical of a poll released by Dan Proft’s guys that produces the exact results his guy Darren Bailey would like to see.-

    It’s largely consistent with others. What is there to the contrary? If it existed, I’m sure Irvin or Sullivan would be trumpeting it.


  51. - Big Dipper - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:16 pm:

    ==Also Mr Tracy needs to be held accountable==

    Tracy ran as a Dem himself in the past so he had a huge blind spot on the issue of party purity.


  52. - PublicServant - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:16 pm:

    There’s a reason why Trump won and why bailey leads now, and its because the Republican base doesn’t believe in one man, one vote anymore because there’s too many of the wrong men voting.


  53. - Observation - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:25 pm:

    -Bailey and Hubbard at the top of the GOP ticket cannot make moderate Illinois Republicans feel good.-

    Scares the (banned words) out of me.


  54. - Suburbanite - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:26 pm:

    Z and his crew of yes men are failures. The GOP should shun them from any future endeavor.


  55. - G'Kar - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:29 pm:

    IRT the update on ad buys. I mentioned last week that living in a central Illinois media market, I hadn’t seen a Sullivan ad in a couple of weeks. Well, I finally saw one yesterday during the local news broadcast.


  56. - Noted - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:34 pm:

    I hope no one here took investment advice from Ken Griffin.


  57. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:45 pm:

    More great news for Sen. Bailey and his campaign. Time to close strongly, and go with the mo to this weekend’s rally. The establishment is trying to force a phony on its voters, one who tried to “swift boat” real conservatives and accuse them of what he is, anti-Trump. That did not sit well at all with Jeanne Ives, who Irvin evaded with a canned response and walked away from when she repeatedly asked if he voted for Trump.


  58. - SAP - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:46 pm:

    ==Trump won because Hillary was a very flawed candidate. JB doesn’t have her kind of baggage.==

    Held on to Chapa LaVia while veteran’s home residents were dying.
    IDES lost $2 Billion (with a B) in federal unemployment grants to fraudsters.
    DCFS Director held in contempt 10 different times.


  59. - Kris - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:49 pm:

    I suppose this news, coupled with the Griffin retreat, means that Trump will be endorsing Bailey soon.


  60. - Red Ranger - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:49 pm:

    Noted, you may want to check Citadel’s Wellington Fund Q1 returns vs broader market before you make such silly statements. You can also look at Citadels rate of return over past decades for further proof of the silliness of your statement. Facebook is a few clicks down the dial.


  61. - Kris - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:53 pm:

    Red Ranger - agreed - but success in business rarely translates to success in politics and/or governing. They short term profit mentality coupled with cutthroat behavior rarely works.


  62. - Demoralized - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:58 pm:

    ==asked if he voted for Trump==

    The Republican Party has turned into a party that demands its members exhibit fealty to one man. It’s pathetic and shows just how much a portion of the base of the party no longer believes in American democracy.


  63. - Sports Stooge - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 1:59 pm:

    Noted - just like being a successful businessperson does not mean one will be a successful sports owner being a successful businessperson does not mean one will be successful in the political arena.


  64. - Red Ranger - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 2:01 pm:

    Kris, you will note the Noted said investment advice and not political advice, thats why I said it was silly.

    I get that most of the commenters on this site are excited that Griff is leaving town, but I think its silly. Large corporations/business HQ’ed in Chicago/IL has always been a source of pride for this state. From ADM, to Cat, to Baxter etc etc, all politicians have been happy to use these larges HQs as a point of emphasis of the greatness of this state. Recently we have had three major companies decided to leave, and many on this board have an attitude of good riddance. I just dont understand that. In the long run, Citadel and the others leaving is a net negative to the state and to treat it otherwise if foolish.


  65. - South of 80 - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 2:27 pm:

    You know it’s bad when the Irvin people aren’t even in the comments trying to debunk this.


  66. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 2:33 pm:

    ==In the long run, Citadel and the others leaving is a net negative to the state and to treat it otherwise if foolish. ==

    CAT and Boeing leaving sucks. Citadel’s presence apparently includes its CEO every so often provoking a years-long budget crisis, so that juice isn’t worth the squeeze.


  67. - Pundent - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 2:54 pm:

    =Pritzker spent 50 million destroying Irvin=

    I would argue that Pritzker spent his money (not sure it was $50M) propping up Bailey. Irvin pretty much destroyed himself.


  68. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 3:09 pm:

    Wonder if Tracy will blame Pritzker if Trump endorses Bailey and sinks the ILGOP in turn…

    That’d be… fun.


  69. - Red Ranger - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 3:15 pm:

    So the talkers are Griff controlled Rauner and forced him to lead the 2 year stand-off. Ok, got it.

    Also, Griff was outspent by Pritzker and thats why Irvin lost, by a lot. Got it.

    I’ll start writing these talkers down, message discipline is very important to me.


  70. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 3:22 pm:

    ===controlled===

    Encouraged, Supported, you deny that Griffin wasn’t in cahoots with the Rauner agenda? That’s interesting.

    ===Griff was outspent by Pritzker and thats why Irvin lost==

    No.

    It’s like Apollo 13 really. The vetting, or lack of it, and the choices in the rollout will be the demise, if Irvin loses… Pritzker merely highlighted existing oppo that had legs.

    That help?


  71. - Baloneymous - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 3:55 pm:

    ===Also, Griff was outspent by Pritzker and that’s why Irvin lost, by a lot. Got it.===

    JB net worth - $3.6 billion
    KG net worth - $25 billion

    If Irvin was an incredible candidate, Griff had millions and billions more than JB to spend.


  72. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 4:02 pm:

    What are “the talkers”?


  73. - Red Ranger - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 4:30 pm:

    I agree with you Baloneymous, but the people at the helm of the Irvin ship will need to find a way out and on to the next grift. The talking points I see developing so far are, JB just plain out spent us and thats why Irvin lost. It nonsense, but the RGA consultant class just hops from one campaign to the next; successes isn’t really important to them, its just finding the next campaign with a big checkbook.


  74. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 4:53 pm:

    Truth?

    If Dan Proft can get millions (and his own take for himself of what he gets) to gracefully have candidates bring out the vile elements of the GOP…

    … what makes anyone think Z or any of his crew here will be lacking opportunities?

    Truthfully, Griffin “leaving Illinois” before the election is even held helps that crew with what can easily be seen as a terribly flawed candidate at the oppo stage of vetting.

    I can’t imagine Z or any of his crew need me to break down how this is all rolling, may be rolling, or how a post-mortem will look, they don’t take me too serious anyway, but… this idea that this will “end” anything, I don’t see that at all. Proft proves there’s always someone ready to pay, and wins, losses, it comes down to how folks go about their business… Proft one way, Z another.


  75. - TJ - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 4:54 pm:

    Irvin really was the most astroturfed candidate imaginable.


  76. - Real - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 5:03 pm:

    -The Republican Party has turned into a party that demands its members exhibit fealty to one man.-

    The national GOP might do this for Trump but the IL GOP has been doing this for Ken Griffin so what’s the difference? At least Trump is able to move the base whereas Griffin wants to fool the base.


  77. - Lurker - Thursday, Jun 23, 22 @ 6:06 pm:

    I liked Don Tracy when he wore bow ties and was true to his Democratic self. He was a joy to talk to then but now it is impossible with the phoniness.

    Now we have Irvin as that guy. Weird.


  78. - Arsenal - Friday, Jun 24, 22 @ 8:44 am:

    == The talking points I see developing so far are, JB just plain out spent us and thats why Irvin lost. It nonsense==

    I mean, I think there’s not nothing to it; the Dems spent on an anti-Irvin message when Bailey didn’t have the money for his own message, and I think that had some effect.

    But I said all along that Bailey could win even if he only had 1/4 of what Irvin had, and he eventually got that, so. Plus, Irvin spent his money really poorly, never really making a positive case for himself, just talking about how Bailey (of all people) was a secret Democrat and that JB Pritzker was afraid of him.

    Plus, I’ll never get over how he ran multiple ads whining about JB’s ads. Just made him look weak.


  79. - Radio Frequency - Friday, Jun 24, 22 @ 2:41 pm:

    ==Trump won because Hillary was a very flawed candidate.==

    The former president won because the Electoral College skews the power of the voters.


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