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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - NEW POST-INDICTMENT POLLING DATA (Use all caps in password) *** Update - Use TUESDAY’S password ***
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Boland; Schock; Spears radio ad; Smith radio ad; Holmes attack mailer; Axley-Kotowski; Cahnman radio ads; Roth-Noland; Special Session; Early Voting; Madigan-Radogno; Target feed (Use all caps in password)
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Assume it’s the first 100 days of a Pat Quinn administration. What happens?
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Seals goes up *** Updated x1 ***
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The piece doesn’t say how big this ad buy is, but it is running on network TV. Democrat Dan Seals will begin airing a television ad Monday tying Republican Rep. Mark Kirk’s votes in Congress to support President Bush. The full ad can be seen here. Meanwhile, the Daily Herald has endorsed both Melissa Bean and Tammy Duckworth. Watch it and discuss. *** UPDATE *** Animal Farm has the fundraising numbers: 6th District: Republican Peter Roskam raised $570,000 for a total of $2.36 million so far, with $1.5 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Democrat Tammy Duckworth raised $949,000 for a total of $2.8 million so far, but had only $206,000 left as of Sept. 30. That probably explains why Duckworth went off broadcast TV recently.
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Tribune poll: Stroger-Peraica 39-36
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The key here is that even though the two are essentially tied, 14 percent of African-Americans are still undecided. With those votes and if the machine kicks in hard, this is not a tie race. Still, Stroger is way under 50 and lots of people have to be nervous. Stroger leads Peraica 39 percent to 36 percent in the survey, which has an error margin of 5 percentage points. The poll of 481 likely Cook County voters was conducted Oct. 8-11. […] As usual, the Tribune hasn’t posted any crosstabs or polling details beyond what’s in the article. Meanwhile, the Trib endorsed Peraica today. And the Daily Southtown’s Phil Kadner let loose on Todd Stroger. In fact, during an editorial board interview with the Daily Southtown on Friday, young Stroger, the son of former Cook County Board President John Stroger, seemed so lacking in knowledge that I had to wonder why he is even running for the office. * The Tribune claims that its poll’s margin of error is 5 percent, but it’s actually slightly less than 4.5 percent. Isn’t it at least a little odd that the Trib would undercut its own poll by claiming a higher MoE than it really has and, in the process, make the race look slightly closer?
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Rezko roundup
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Greg Hinz makes a very good point in this week’s column.
My syndicated column lays out our options. 1) Blagojevich knows about the corruption and is a very good liar; 2) The governor isn’t curious enough to delve deeper than a headline and seriously question his friends; 3) He is utterly incapable of trusting any information that contradicts his own beliefs; or 4) U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is completely wrong, even though he has yet to lose a corruption case. The Tribune editorial board weighed in yesterday. So Blagojevich essentially is channeling George Ryan: In case of crime spree, I knew nothing. The problem with this, three weeks shy of an election, is that it forces voters to ask unpleasant questions: Is my governor clueless? Or worse? When something as big as the Tony Rezko indictment breaks, reporters will always find a way to keep it in their stories. Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich touted his senior health-care efforts Sunday while Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka accused him of distorting her plans for children’s medical insurance, as both campaigns pondered the effects of recent corruption charges against a top fundraiser for the governor. And here’s something so out of the blue that it might get some coverage and allow the guv to change the subject: The Illinois State Rifle Association has called on Blagojevich to resign. Also, Chuck Goudie tries to connect the Rezko scandal with the House page scandal.
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Blagojevich ‘06, Quinn ‘0? *** Updated x1 ***
Sunday, Oct 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Neil Steinberg asks a question that pretty much every insider has been mulling recently. So when do we start viewing the gubernatorial race as being not so much between Judy Baar Topinka and Gov. Blagojevich as between Topinka and Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, who would take over the job should his boss find it necessary to, ah, spend time elsewhere? Marie from Disarranging Mine sent me this photo last week, which she snapped somewhere in Springfield. Other people are getting the idea as well.
Meanwhile, the Northwest Herald has endorsed Pat Quinn for reelection. Trouble is, the paper based the endorsement at least partially on the completely false assumption that the lt. governor is elected separately. Lieutenant governor is an independent office, and we are confident Quinn could work with a Republican or Democratic governor. Oops. *** UPDATE *** The meme spreads. Monday’s editorial in the Belleville News-Democrat is entitled “Look beyond Blagojevich.” Quick, who’s the Illinois lieutenant governor? And, perhaps reflecting his greater importance in Illinois politics, the Sun-Times put LG Quinn on Monday’s front page.
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“New” pre-Rezko polling in guv’s race
Saturday, Oct 14, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Warning: Both of these polls were taken before or right around the time of the Tony Rezko indictment, so they’re outdated and almost useless. Keep that in mind, please, when reading what follows. Rasmussen has indicated to subscribers that it will do another poll soon. Events like the Rezko indictment take a few days to “gel” in the public’s mind. As of early Saturday afternoon, Rasmussen’s numbers are still behind a firewall, but subscribers say they have Blagojevich leading Topinka and Whitney 49-43-3, with 5 percent undecided. The September Rasmussen poll had Blagojevich ahead 48-36. Interestingly, 53 percent told Rasmussen they could still change their mind before election day. The Tribune poll was also released last night. The Trib’s poll was taken over four days, with the last one being the day Rezko was indicted, so a small portion of respondents had probably heard of the events, but not enough to make a huge difference. The Trib has Blagojevich ahead 43-29-9, with 19 percent saying “other” or undecided. September’s Tribune poll had Blagojevich ahead 45-33. According to the Trib, 51 percent are dissatisfied with their choice for governor, while 48 percent are satisfied. Topinka has managed to move Blagojevich’s favorables, however. The Trib’s September poll had 43 percent of respondents with a favorable opinion of him and 38 percent with an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are now 35 favorable and 43 unfavorable. Topinka’s are even worse, however - 25 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, compared to 29 and 40 back in September. Click the image for a better view. * From the Trib story, published late last night: Among Republicans, fewer than half—47 percent—say they have a favorable view of Topinka, who has held statewide office for a dozen years and was a state legislator from suburban Cook County before that. * Real Clear Politics charts all of the polls in this race dating back to June of last year. Click for a larger image. [Real Clear claims the Rasmussen poll was taken on the 12th, but according to people who have seen it, the survey was actually taken Tuesday night, which is before the Rezko indictment.] * You can find this blog’s statewide poll stories by clicking here. * Meanwhile, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney continues to make a splash. ABC7 had a big story yesterday. The story is worth a look.
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