Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Polling average: Rauner 7-8 points ahead

Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Another day, another poll…

According to a survey by Gravis Marketing for Human Events magazine, Mr. Rauner leads Mr. Quinn by 8 points among likely election voters, with 48 percent for the Republican challenger and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent. A considerable 12 percent of voters are reported as undecided, many of them Democrats.

Both men improved their standing slightly from the last Gravis survey in April, when the numbers were 43 percent to 35 percent.

The survey, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, includes only a portion of Mr. Quinn’s recent Cayman Islands/Rauner’s rich assault. But if Mr. Quinn is drawing only 31 percent of the independent vote, he’s going to have a problem in the Nov. 4 election.

From the pollster…

The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.

Hmm.

* Huffpo included the survey in its polling chart…

Real Clear Politics has not yet plugged in this new survey. RCP’s average is a seven-point led for Rauner, which is only a point away from HuffPo’s.

* Meanwhile…

Back to Gravis, which showed Mr. Durbin with a rather narrow 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Mr. Oberweis, with 14 percent undecided. If true, it’s not a very impressive lead.

Mr.Durbin’s campaign had no immediate response to the poll. But he has been furiously campaigning of late, a sign that he’s a smart politician, or that he’s a tad concerned, or perhaps a bit of both.

For those Democrats who think Winter Springs, Fla.-based Gravis might have stacked the deck, the poll found President Barack Obama with an only slightly negative job performance rating, 48 percent negative to 45 percent positive, which is far better than his national figure and a sign that the president from Chicago retains considerable home-state loyalty.

The HuffPo average in this race is Durbin +11.75.

11 Comments

New AARP poll shows serious anxiety

Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* AARP has a new poll of Illinoisans aged 50 and over. Click here to read it all. Let’s start with the politics. Bruce Rauner leads Gov. Pat Quinn 48-39…

Again, the governor has base problems.

* President Obama’s job approval rating is upside down among the 50+ crowd…

* But the real story here is the deep anxiety levels among the aging and aged. For instance, 61 percent of non-retirees say they have or will delay their retirement for financial reasons. And 76 percent of all of those polled say the Illinois economy is bad, with 46 percent saying it’s “very bad”…

* Almost two-thirds say their income is falling behind their cost of living…

* “Looking ahead to the next five years or so, do you feel more hopeful and confident, or more worried and concerned about being able to achieve your economic and financial goals?” More worried and concerned are in red…

* “Voters are assigned 20 points for each of five economic concerns about which they say they worry very or somewhat often. A minimum score of 0 reflects no economic anxiety, while a maximum score of 100 indicates a great deal of economic anxiety”…

It isn’t difficult to see why Bruce Rauner keeps bringing up the tax issue every chance he gets.

* On to other concerns. 64 percent said it was important to them “that the next governor preserve access to reliable, affordable landline service in Illinois,” with half saying it was “very important”…

* “How important is this issue in helping you make your voting decisions this year? - Helping older people and the disabled live independently.” 79 percent said it was important, with 65 percent saying “very important”…

19 Comments

“Evelyn loves the Springfield area”

Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Evelyn Sanguinetti contacted a former law school classmate who is a staff attorney at the Illinois Department of Human Rights about getting a state job before she was tapped to be Bruce Rauner’s running mate…

“Hello Honey — With the New Year, I am seeking other employment opportunities. Is anything available in ur hood?” she wrote in an email to the attorney [on the afternoon of Jan. 1, 2013].

The worker responded a day later, saying nothing was open and that state government was in the midst of a budget-related round of layoffs. But he suggested she file her resume with the state’s main hiring agency in order to get the process moving. […]

And, the Wheaton resident added, “Isn’t cow tipping a work requirement in Springfield (LOL)?”

Schrimpf suggested the comment wasn’t meant as a dig about downstate Illinois.

“The cow tipping reference was a jovial exchange … Evelyn loves the Springfield area, and unlike Pat Quinn, who spends the bulk of his time in Chicago, she looks forward to working in the capital region next year,” Schrimpf said.

Have at it, campers.

* Meanwhile, let’s go back to that new Sun-Times poll…

When asked who was “better prepared to serve as governor if the need arises,” 45 percent of respondents gave the nod to the former Chicago Public Schools CEO, Vallas, who ran for governor in 2002. Wheaton City Councilwoman Sanguinetti drew support from 35 percent of those polled.

That ain’t much of a help to Quinn.

* Crosstabs…

74 Comments

Quinn’s base problem

Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new poll of 1,085 likely voters conducted by We Ask America for the Chicago Sun-Times finds Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn 51-38. The most explicable difference between this poll and one leaked to Michael Sneed by the Quinn campaign (and which I also obtained and gave to subscribers) is that this WAA poll is of likely voters. The Quinn numbers, which had him down by one point, were registered voters - which is almost always a more Democratic universe in off-year elections.

* But check this out: “Which gubernatorial candidate do you consider to be a reformer?…

Oof. So much for “You know who I am.”

And check out some of the crosstabs on this question…

Look at how few Democrats and Chicagoans consider Quinn to be a reformer.

* Which candidate for governor do you think understands your every day concerns?…

No success yet in painting Rauner as an out of touch billionaire. From the xtabs…

Quinn really has problems with his base, not to mention with independents. Ouch.

* Which candidate for governor is more likely to solve Illinois’ budget problems?…

Despite the fact that Rauner’s plan would blow a gigantic hole in the state budget, even Democrats aren’t thrilled with Quinn’s plan…

* Back to the Sun-Times story…

A deeper dive into the head-to-head data in the poll between Rauner and Quinn shows that the Republican is outscoring the incumbent among both men and women. Rauner also appears to be doing surprisingly well among those who identified themselves as Democrats, spelling potential trouble for the governor.

Nearly 17 percent of Democrats chose Rauner as their preferred option for governor, the poll showed. By contrast, Quinn got the nod from self-identified Republican voters 7 percent of the time.

The survey also has Rauner with a steep advantage among independents. The poll found that nearly 54 percent of those swing voters chose the Republican candidate, compared to nearly 32 percent for Quinn.

Most of those Democrats will “come home.” And if you look at the xtabs, 12 percent of Democrats were undecided. So the race will obviously tighten up down the stretch.

55 Comments

« NEWER POSTS