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New poll has two races much closer than believed
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Constituent Dynamics has some fresh numbers for Illinois congressional races. You will recall that they already polled IL 6, 14 and 19 and came up with a few surprises. These new results are a lot different than commonly believed. Melissa Bean is thought to have a larger lead than this, and Mark Kirk is believed by nobody to be below 50. Still, we’re looking at 1,000 respondents in these (automated) phone polls. Both polls were conducted Oct. 15-16. * Bean-McSweeney, 47-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf] (They didn’t include the third candidate in the race.) * Kirk-Seals, 46-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf]
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Rasmussen: 44-36-9
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Rasmussen did a poll last week before the Rezko indictment which found Rod Blagojevich leading Judy Baar Topinka 49-43-3. Unlike the Tribune, which also polled pre-Rezko, Rasmussen realized that his numbers were no good and did the responsible thing by going back into the field. The new poll is up (although it’s still behind a subscriber firewall) and Blagojevich leads Topinka and Whitney 44-36-9. Five percent say “other” and 6 percent say they’re unsure. Real Clear has the guv at 45, but I have the crosstabs and it’s 44. Here’s the most interesting aspect of the poll. 24 percent said they were “certain” to vote for Blagojevich, while 22 percent said they were “certain” to vote for Topinka. Nobody said they were certain Whitney voters.
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“Ricky, get off my Trans Am!” *** Updated x1 ***
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Finally, a candidate for Illinois governor I can believe in… He won’t jump into bed with the special interests or organized crime… Your hero and mine… With a running mate who believes in the power of facial hair… Heck, even Honest Abe is backing Tim Nieukirk for governor of Illinois… How could you possibly not vote for a guy who puts John L. Lewis on his MySpace page? Hey, Henry, are you out there? Maybe AFSCME can finally endorse somebody in this race.
Illinois, I think it’s time to “Get Nieuked.” ![]() ![]() [And, by the way, if you do nothing else today, watch those first two videos. Brilliant.] *** UPDATE *** Oh, my goodness. They really have filed the paperwork.
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Peraica’s new TV ad
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller I had heard that Tony Peraica’s new television ad was powerful. Illiterate voters might have a tough time with it, but other than that, tell us what you think And if you’re wondering when Stroger will begin airing TV ads, Carol Marin provided us with this tidbit today: …Stroger last week reportedly told a roomful of North Side Democratic committeemen that he’s running out of money, only has about $400,000 on hand, and needs at least $200,000 more to launch some TV ads in the final week before the election… ![]()
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller What’s your over-under on Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney’s final vote percentage? Bonus Question: Handicap tonight’s Cardinals vs. Mets game.
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Words
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Judy Baar Topinka says what she’s thinking, for good or ill. Here’s what she told the Daily Herald this week:
And this is what she told the Sun-Times:
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Phony attack
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Alexi Giannoulias has apparently just graduated from the Rod Blagojevich School of Making Stuff Up. Democratic state treasurer candidate Alexi Giannoulias branded Christine Radogno a “Republican right-wing extremist” Tuesday as the GOP nominee continued blasting loans his family bank has made to convicted felons. […] I’ve covered Sen. Radogno for years and she is no “right-wing extremist.” Giannoulias’ credibility was already severely damaged in my eyes, but it’s just about gone now.
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Cash-strapped Duckworth gets Trib nod, airs Obama ad *** Updated x1 ***
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Nobody has yet explained why Duckworth has found herself in such a cash crunch, but today’s Tribune endorsement ought to help raise a few bucks.
The Sun-Times has more on the cash crunch and her new TV ad. Just days after filing a report showing her Democratic congressional campaign short of funds, Duckworth plans to begin airing television commercials today featuring U.S. Sen. Barack Obama singing her praises and dubbing her Republican opponent’s ad less than totally honest. The national Dems began running their TV ad yesterday that blasts Roskam as a book banner. The Tuesday ad against Roskam features a woman billed as “Mary Kay Doyle, retired teacher,†chastising Roskam for favoring book bans. *** UPDATE *** Here’s the Obama ad: And here’s the DCCC ad attacking Roskam. ![]()
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Morning shorts
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Stroger aide quits campaign after arrest * Marin: That doesn’t mean [Mike Quigley is] happy with the way this campaign is going. Quigley says Stroger is like “Bambi in the land of Godzillas. I think Todd’s tried harder as time went on when he saw he could lose, but fire in the belly? I think he’s still going through the paces for Dad. It’s extraordinarily sad to watch this.” * Sun-Times: Mayor Daley’s decision to pursue the privatization of Midway Airport is paying dividends for his chief fund-raiser in the black community. * State worker in trouble for allegedly campaigning on state time: In 2003, Shalabi got his job by the same method that brought in other politically connected candidates hired during the Blagojevich administration. He was hired to work in a county where there was a job opening, but then he was allowed to transfer to work closer to home. State records show that he was hired to work in Boone County, nearly 100 miles from his Lemont home, before he was transferred to Cook County in February 2004. * Lieutenant governor seeks hearing on ComEd exec compensation * Sims asks governor for clemency * Lipinski faces perennial candidate in 3rd district * Southtown: Gary Smith, 17, backed Blagojevich after conferring with his father. “He said he didn’t like Judy Baar Topinka, he liked Blagojevich. He said Blagojevich was for the people and Topinka could be, but she’s for herself now. So I voted for Blagojevich. He cares for the people, I can tell he does.” * Sweeny: Chicagoans are no strangers to scandals, but that doesn’t mean they like them * Kadner: Green Party’s Whitney gets attention of voters * Saluki Express makes its first run
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