Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » The partisan redistricting debate moves to SCOTUS
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
The partisan redistricting debate moves to SCOTUS

Wednesday, Oct 4, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* AP

In a case that could reshape American politics, the Supreme Court appeared split Tuesday on whether Wisconsin Republicans gave themselves an unfair advantage when they drew political maps to last a decade.

If Justice Anthony Kennedy, whose vote almost certainly controls the outcome, is prepared to join his liberal colleagues, the court could rule for the first time that districting plans that entrench one party’s control of a legislature or congressional delegation can violate the constitutional rights of the other party’s voters. That could lead to changes in political maps across the country.

* As we’ve already discussed, this case revolves around the “efficiency gap,” which, the SCOTUS blog explains, “looks at the number of votes ‘wasted’ in each election, either because they are cast for the losing candidate or because the victorious candidate did not need them to win”

(M)uch of [the court’s time] was spent in the weeds, on what Justice Stephen Breyer described as another “hard issue” in the case: If courts are going to get involved with partisan-gerrymandering cases, what are manageable standards that they can apply to evaluate the claims? Breyer offered Tseytlin a five-part test that looked at, among other things, whether one party controls the legislature and the redistricting process; whether the redistricting maps create “partisan asymmetry” – that is, they do not treat the different political parties equally; and whether that asymmetry is “persistent” and extreme. “I suspect,” Breyer told Tseytlin, that the test is manageable. […]

[Erin Murphy, arguing for the Wisconsin State Senate] picked up this theme, reminding the justices that the kinds of standards that the plaintiffs have proposed have identified “false positives” – districts that appear to be the result of gerrymandering but are not – 50% of the time. What, she asked rhetorically, are legislatures supposed to do when confronted with problems like these? […]

[Justice Elena Kagan] seemed to be on board with Breyer’s standard, but looked for reassurance that the courts would not be inundated with challenges to other redistricting maps in the future. Smith suggested a variety of measures that seemed to placate Kagan, but not Roberts, who complained that the kind of statistics-based predictions that Smith’s measures would call for had “been a very hazardous exercise” for the court in the past. Alito also complained about the “dozens of uncertainties” in the process that Smith was proposing.

* The potential for a large number of cases disputing whether a state’s map is in compliance is real. For example, there are strongly differing opinions on whether Illinois would be ruled out of compliance

(A)ccording to Nick Stephanopolous, a law professor and lawyer for Wisconsin Democrats, it would leave Madigan’s partisan cartography undisturbed.

“At this point, no, (the Wisconsin case would not affect Illinois), simply because the ‘efficiency gap’ isn’t big enough for Illinois,” he said.

* On the other hand

In 2012, [Illinois] Democratic House candidates got 52 percent of the vote statewide but captured 60 percent of the seats, report political scientist Kent Redfield of the University of Illinois at Springfield and policy consultant Cynthia Canary. In 2014, Democrats got 50.5 percent of the vote and 60 percent of the seats. This year, Madigan’s party again won 60 percent of the races.

That’s why Illinois Republicans may side with Wisconsin Democrats on one issue: partisan gerrymandering.

* From a Change Illinois fundraising e-mail…

Yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a landmark case that could change America’s political landscape and establish constitutional limits to partisan gerrymandering. If the Court establishes a new constitutional standard prohibiting partisan gerrymandering, this will apply nationwide and could be used to finally change Illinois seriously flawed redistricting process before new legislative maps are drawn after the 2020 census.

“Could” is the operative word there. Maybe, maybe not.

       

12 Comments
  1. - Not Rich - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 1:43 pm:

    winners DRAW losers LITIGATE.. it is a founding principle of American government.


  2. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 1:51 pm:

    Many people complain about Illinois’ maps, but the maps before the US Supreme Court are far worse. The ruling could easily declare Wisconsin’s gotta change, but in a way that means Illinois doesn’t.


  3. - So_Ill - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 1:54 pm:

    Nationally, this would help democrats a whole lot more than it would hurt them.


  4. - The Captain - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 1:57 pm:

    I think very highly of Redfield and Canary but adding up the total votes for State Rep and using that as the measurement has a major flaw, many races have no opponent even some that really should have been contested. For example they say that “In 2014, Democrats got 50.5 percent of the vote and 60 percent of the seats.” Fair, but look at the districts that had no opponent. For example John Bradley, Jerry Costello and Brandon Phelps all had no Republican opponent and Rauner won all of those districts by more than 30 points. The Republicans could have won any or all of those districts in a midterm election that was also a big Republican year locally and nationally. They didn’t win them so the Dems got 60% of the seats that year but this isn’t evidence of gerrymandering, it’s evidence of ineptitude.


  5. - COPN - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 2:23 pm:

    Hopefully the majority of the SC is looking for more than just a manageable standard and at least account for (1) certain demographics already being packed by geography and (2) equal protection rights don’t necessarily equate to a right to proportional partisanship in a state legislature.


  6. - Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 2:40 pm:

    I hope the Supreme Court stays out of this political issue. Membership in a political party does not make a person a member of a protected class.

    I advocate for 3 person districts like we had before the Cutback Amendment. Those are hard to Gerrymander.

    But I don’t want judges running this process. It damages their credibility.


  7. - JB13 - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 2:45 pm:

    Nothing quite like a gerrymandering discussion with Illinois Democrats.
    “C’mon, man, legislative maps don’t determine who wins. Well, except in Wisconsin.”
    “Then, give up control of the maps.”
    “No.”


  8. - FPJ - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 2:46 pm:

    A recent “explainer” in the Times goes into why Illinois (and New York) are kind of unique cases for this efficiency gap calculation. Both states have such concentrated populations centers that the political geography of urban Democrats and rural Republicans really throws the test for a loop. In fact, this test gives Illinois Republican a slight efficiency advantage!

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/03/upshot/how-the-new-math-of-gerrymandering-works-supreme-court.html


  9. - DuPage Saint - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 2:54 pm:

    Read that two of the three worst maps are Democrat and that Maryland is the most partisan (Democrat) map. And another issue brought up is that Democrats and Republicans do not necessarily stay Democrat or Republican.
    Still think some guy with a computer could drawn rather square or rectangular lines with the correct number of people in the district and also trying to c=keep counties and or towns in same district.


  10. - FPJ - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 2:54 pm:

    Honestly, the only way around the political geography issue is some kind of state-wide proportional representation system. That doesn’t seem to be a likely outcome any time soon.


  11. - Sue - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 4:10 pm:

    At least in Illinois- this would be Madigans worst nightmare


  12. - Lamont - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 7:54 pm:

    The simple, and obvious, solution is statewide proportional representation. And we need to do away with the onerous restrictions on parties not named “Democratic” and “Republican”. Jeez, it’s 2017 already.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* AG Raoul orders 'Super/Mayor' Tiffany Henyard's charity to stop soliciting donations as Tribune reports FBI targeting Henyard (Updated x2)
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Pritzker on 'Fix Tier 2'
* Caption contest!
* House passes Pritzker-backed bill cracking down on step therapy, prior authorization, junk insurance with bipartisan support
* Question of the day
* Certified results: 19.07 percent statewide primary turnout
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Update to today’s edition
* It’s just a bill
* Pritzker says new leadership needed at CTA
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Live coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller