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Raoul out of the running

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a press release…

First, I want to convey my deep and lasting appreciation to the men and women, from communities throughout the state, who have expressed confidence in my ability to lead Illinois as its next chief executive. I am inspired by their determination to improve life for all our residents, and I am humbled by their desire to work with me to achieve that goal.

After careful consideration, I have decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for governor in 2014.

I did not take lightly the calls for me to join this race and provide voters with another option. In making my decision, I talked with my family and considered the timing of this potential step. I evaluated my existing and pledged resources and considered whether they would be adequate to communicate not only my record of service, but my vision for this great state. I took into account my sincere desire not to create unnecessary divisions, given the commitments that have been made.

I also considered my current role as chair of the pension reform conference committee. The office of the governor is a key position of leadership. In deciding not to seek that position, I acknowledge the pivotal leadership role that is mine today and that I must carry out to best of my abilities until the job is done.

While I will not be a candidate for governor in 2014, I pledge to do my part in this pivotal election to ensure that all who seek to be Illinois’ next governor hear the voices of people and communities who have been ignored or marginalized. To be their advocate will be a high honor, a worthy calling and a responsibility sufficient for this day.

  25 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your advice for new House Republican Leader Jim Durkin?

  54 Comments      


This just in…

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 1:37 pm - I’m told that Rep. Jim Durkin was just elected House GOP Leader.

  19 Comments      


Dillard’s not so secret secret

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Pretty much everybody knows that Sen. Kirk Dillard will choose Rep. Jil Tracy as his running mate, so Sen. Dillard didn’t even try too hard to hide it this week

“Let me tell you without divulging secrets, the people of Southern Illinois will be extremely pleased with who my running mate is,” Dillard said. “It is rumored out there that it is somebody who grew up in deep Southern Illinois and might even be a double SIU Saluki graduate.”

Dillard also dropped a hint that it was a woman. […]

State Representative Jil Tracy (R-Quincy) has been widely rumored to be Dillard’s choice for Lt. Governor. She was born in Carbondale, Illinois and lived in Anna. She graduated from Southern Illinois University with both a bachelor’s degree and a law degree. She has been in the State House since 2006.

Tracy said earlier this week an announcement would be made next week and Dillard says he’ll make his official announcement in southern Illinois sometime after the holiday.

Thoughts on Tracy?

  40 Comments      


The importance of party backing, or lack thereof

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Years ago, I asked House Speaker Michael Madigan how his precinct captains were able to get majorities for all of his ward’s Democratic candidates in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won the 13th Ward.

Madigan said his captains were ordered to not talk to people about the presidential race. Voters, he said, like to make up their own minds about top of the ticket contests, so it’s best not to ever argue with them.

The race for governor is pretty much the same. A captain who gets into a long discussion at the doors over the governor’s race is not gonna be able to convince those voters to go along with the ward’s choices for judge, or some other obscure elected office.

That being said, in some wards, townships and suburban and Downstate counties, party leaders can have an impact. The late John Gianulis of Rock Island County was one of those guys. There are a few others.

Mostly, though, the party structure just isn’t all that effective. I remember when Dan Reitz ran his first election for the House. Local county chairmen actually complained that Reitz was walking too many precincts. Clueless much?

* The bottom line here is that Gov. Quinn’s slating by the Cook County Democrats will have some impact, but only in certain wards and with certain types. Same goes for his support by the vast majority of Downstate and suburban chairmen and chairwomen.

In a close race, that backing might prove crucial. But slating for top offices is a bit overrated, so I tend to at least somewhat agree with Bill Daley here

While father Richard J. Daley perfected a political machine and controlled the slate-making process, the son opted to forgo seeking the endorsement of Cook County Democratic leaders this month and viewed it as a foregone conclusion that it would go to Quinn as the sitting governor.

Quinn’s strong reception at the annual downstate Democratic county chairmen’s State Fair breakfast two weeks ago also is viewed by Daley as a show of thanks from job-dependent political leaders.

“The path to victory is not on paper with committeemen. It’s getting out there,” Daley said.

“This race in January, February or March is going to get all the publicity in the world. This is the big race,” he said. “If I am able to raise the money I need to raise, they’ll see plenty of messaging from me. That’s where voters for the big races get their information. They don’t get it from the precinct captain ringing the doorbell in Eddie Burke’s ward.”

Again, in a close race, it might turn out to be crucial. Maybe. It just depends on the reaction the captains and committeemen get at the doors, if they even walk precincts.

Daley needs to figure out how to crush Quinn, and all the door-knocking in the world won’t turn those votes around. It’ll be all about the paid media.

And, by the way, I’m still not convinced that Daley can actually turn those votes around. The path just isn’t all that clear to me.

  8 Comments      


Attempting to define the beginning

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* For some reason, reporters lately have been trying to pinpoint when Campaign 2014 began for Gov. Quinn. From earlier this week

The busy chief executive of the nation’s fifth-largest state probably wouldn’t be expected to set aside time to attend an initial hearing in a lawsuit filed against him, but there was Gov. Pat Quinn on the 23rd floor of the Daley Center.

The Democratic governor had made what lawmakers contended was a constitutionally dubious move to take away their paychecks until they send him a pension reform bill. While not much was decided in court that day, the scene allowed a confident Quinn to flick the switch on his populist persona as the glare from a phalanx of TV camera lights shone on him.

“You don’t get paid if you don’t do your job,” the governor declared as though he already had won the lawsuit.

The moment this month marked the unofficial launch of Quinn’s re-election effort.

That was the moment? Really? How about when he vetoed the salaries in the first place? Or how about his splashy press conference accompanying his amendatory veto of the concealed carry bill?

* The AP tries to define the start as being today

The 2014 race for Illinois governor has entered a new phase with Gov. Pat Quinn taking time out of a work day to accept a union endorsement.

The Chicago Democrat has kept campaigning low-key so far with events such as speeches at churches and small fundraisers.

But on Thursday he stopped by the Chicago International Produce Market to pick up a re-election nod from Teamsters Joint Council 25.

The labor union endorsed him four years ago around the same time. Quinn was a member during college from 1969 to 1971.

He’s kept his campaigning low key?

This is a silly news hook.

No matter what they say, incumbents who want to run for reelection are always, in one way or another, in campaign mode.

…Adding… A good point from a commenter…

Don’t blame the reporters. Trust me, these stories are the concoction of thumb-sucking editors trying to prove they’re worth their considerable salaries.

  10 Comments      


Get it together, man

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Last fiscal year, the Quinn administration approved more than $135 million in no-bid emergency purchases. That’s a new record.

Some of it is understandable

Sometimes, however, an unexpected need arises. Recently, for example, the Illinois State Police and other agencies had to scramble to purchase goods and services to help implement the state’s new concealed weapons law. They also may have to declare an emergency if, for example, a tornado damages the roof of a prison.

But some of it clearly ain’t

The Illinois Department of Corrections, for example, recently had to make a no-bid emergency purchase of $15,000 for hot dog seasoning to be used at the Menard Correctional Center meat shop.

The reason: The prior contract for wiener spices had expired and a new contract wasn’t yet in place.

This is a laughable explanation

Matt Brown, the state’s chief procurement officer, acknowledged a lack of manpower in some agencies might be playing a role. But, he said ensuring that contracts don’t expire without a new contract in place is a matter of good planning.

Oh, c’mon.

A “matter of good planning” would be to make sure that basic state contracts don’t have to be let on an emergency, no-bid basis.

  32 Comments      


Defining the party down the drain

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Tribune editorializes against electing Rep. Raymond Poe as House Republican Leader

In recent years, Poe has voted against several signature cost-cutting initiatives that would reduce the size of state government and the demands on taxpayers. He voted against every pension reform bill that came to the House floor this year — there were at least four. He voted against closing half-empty state buildings. He voted to protect free health insurance coverage for state retirees, an enormous cost. He voted against giving public school children in Chicago the freedom to choose their schools.

If you want to know where he stands on issues, ask the lobbyists for teacher and state employee unions. Poe has accepted more than $100,000 in union money for his campaigns during his tenure in Springfield. Sure, he represents a district with many public employees. But based on his fiscal voting record, he might as well move his desk to the Democrats’ side of the chamber.

* The paper’s political cartoonist piles on…

Poe represents his district and he does it well. To suggest that somehow makes him a Democrat is as ludicrous as calling his chief rival Rep. Jim Durkin a Democrat because he has voted with the trial lawyers in the past.

* On the other hand, as mentioned yesterday, the social conservatives believe that Rep. Jim Durkin is far too liberal to be the GOP Leader

Illinois is in desperate need of leadership that is both principled and courageous. Every day/week/month/year that passes without such leadership results in the degrading progression of conditions that we’ve seen over the past many years. Without moral and enlightened leaders our state’s continued decline is guaranteed. Rep. Jim Durkin possesses neither the wisdom nor skills necessary to provide the kind of bold political leadership families across our state are demanding. […]

As with anyone who has held public office as long as Durkin has there are many questionable, even disappointing, votes. For example, Durkin has voted for tax increases and a massive expansion of gambling and against virtual schools.

The problem with the Republican Party is that too many of its factions believe they possess the sole authority to declare who is and who is not a “true” party member. That wrong-headed thinking has resulted in a long string of losses in this state.

Ray Poe is a Republican.

Jim Durkin is a Republican.

That should go without saying.

Sheesh.

  99 Comments      


Caption contest!

Thursday, Aug 29, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Du Quoin Evening Call

Jason Plummer (left), who says he has no interest in running for office again, is pictured at left with DuPage County auditor Bob Grogan in downtown Du Quoin during their visit on Thursday.

So, he’s moving into a kingmaker role?

Um, I don’t think Plummer will have much more success with Grogan than he did with his own campaigns. Just sayin’.

The photo…

  88 Comments      


Report: Proft won’t run

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Twitters…


I’m not sure anyone ever really thought he was gonna run, but whatever.

…Adding… Illinois Review has a statement

“I feel a bit odd making a statement about something I am not going to do. However, since I have been openly contemplating another run for Illinois governor, it is appropriate I make my decision known for clarity’s sake and for the sake of generous supporters past and present. Therefore, after careful consideration and reflection I have decided that I will not be a candidate for governor in 2014. Instead, I will continue to work in support of selective Republican candidates for office at the local and state legislative levels. And I will continue to work from the platform I am fortunate to have at WLS radio in Chicago to do intellectual battle with the craven Illinois Ruling Class and to advance the flag for policies and personalities in furtherance of free minds and free markets.”

  51 Comments      


Today’s mystery

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I received several text messages and phone calls about this automated poll last night…

Robo-calls in the 9th and 16th congresional districts, as well as parts of Lake County, hint that Congressman Adam Kinzinger (IL-16) could be considering a 2014 bid for Governor.

Tuesday night, Republicans in those Illinois districts began getting robo-calls that asked first about the four current Republican candidates seeking the nomination for Governor, then whether the person would support Kinzinger if he ran for Governor.

Given how relatively late in the GOP nomination process it is, there is little probability that Kinzinger will actually jump into the 2014 Governor’s race, and it is difficult to determine who or what group is behind the calls and the questions.

The Illinois Review writer goes on to list a bunch of theories about what’s going on, but I’ve made quite a few calls and don’t think that Kinzinger is considering a run. I’m just not sure what’s up.

  17 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Lee Newspapers

“We are second-to-none when it comes to growing corn and soybeans in Illinois, and many other things,” Gov. Pat Quinn said Tuesday.

* The Question: What “other things” is Illinois known for growing?

  86 Comments      


Actually, this is a good thing

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

Another new PAC that has ties to gubernatorial candidate and millionaire businessman Bruce Rauner emerged this week. Since Monday, Rauner, Jack Roeser and Richard Uihlein — all wealthy businessmen — have dumped $94,000 into the Reform PAC, according to a state campaign filing. Roeser is one of the most influential Republicans in the state.

“What they want to reform is anyone’s guess, but it’s an interesting gathering of people,” David Morrison, Deputy Director of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform said in a post on Tuesday.

This is the second committee with ties to Rauner that’s outside of the candidate’s straight-up election committee.

* Actually, the explanation is pretty simple. From the PAC’s Board of Elections’ page

Purpose: To support Illinois Republican House candidates in the general election

* Freshman Rep. Dave McSweeney has been heavily involved in the PAC. From an August 24th e-mail…

I’ve helped raised $100,700 for a newly formed PAC called Reform PAC. The purpose of the PAC is help GOP State House candidates. The PAC will have minimal administrative expenses and will only invest in top tier winnable races. We’re confident that the PAC can quickly raise an additional $90,000 so that the total raised in the short run will be over $200,000. […]

The reason that I helped raised money for this effort is that we want to increase the number of GOP House members. In an off-year election, we should be successful if we unite and all GOP House members focus on raising money and continuing to recruit good candidates.

With the House Republican Organization’s finances in complete disarray, this is actually a good thing that Rauner and the others are doing. Not everything has to be a whack.

  22 Comments      


Vote set for tomorrow on House GOP Leader

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Subscribers have known about this for a few days

Illinois House Republicans are gathering to elect a new leader on Thursday following a summer of internal squabbling while the current caucus chief debated his political future.

The 1 p.m. meeting at Springfield’s Statehouse Inn follows House Republican Leader Tom Cross’ announcement last week that he would be stepping down from his post to run for treasurer. […]

According to House caucus rules, a majority of Republican members’ votes — 24 — are needed to elect a new leader.

* Rep. Raymond Poe (R-Springfield) was not pleased with the meeting’s timing and sent a letter to his colleagues blasting Rep. Jim Durkin. From the SJ-R

“It sounds like even though some of my people can’t be there, they are going to press ahead with their meeting on Thursday,” Poe said Tuesday. “I don’t’ think they worried about if my people could be there or not, they’d just like to have it.”

In a letter to House Republicans, Poe said the hasty election threatens a rift in the party. He said it was his understanding that Sept. 12 was selected by Cross because a majority of House Republicans said that was the most convenient time to meet. He also said changing the meeting date on such short notice will require the Republicans to suspend their internal rules for conducting caucus meetings if they want to vote on a new leader Thursday.

“I would suggest we not start our new caucus with this type of underhanded activity,” Poe said in his letter. “One Michael Madigan is enough.”

Ouch.

* And Poe isn’t giving up

“I have the assurance from the majority of our caucus that they will vote for me to be the next leader,” Durkin wrote. “And it has been made very clear that our caucus wants to get this vote behind us as soon as possible.”

A new leader needs 24 votes to get elected. Poe said he has 24 votes between solid commitments and “leaners.” There are 47 House Republicans.

“I’m not convinced he’ll have enough people there to win, either,” Poe said. “I don’t know what we do then.”

Subscribers have the full letters from both men.

Stay tuned.

…Adding… I forgot to mention that Illinois Family Action has weighed in against Durkin

Making him the minority leader for the Illinois House Republicans would undoubtedly elevate Representatives Ron Sandack (R-Westmont) and Ed Sullivan (R-Libertyville) into leadership positions. This is completely unacceptable. Both of these lawmakers are lobbying for him for this position. Both of these lawmakers are co-sponsors of SB 10 [gay marriage].

Another enormous blot on Durkin’s record is that more than anyone else, he was responsible for the elevation of Pat Brady to the post of Illinois Republican National Committeeman and then Illinois Republican Party Chairman. When Brady came out publicly and strongly for homosexual “marriage” earlier this year, he did more damage to the Illinois GOP than anyone since former Governor George Ryan. Jim Durkin’s cozy relationships with feckless politicians like Pat Brady and State Representatives Sandack and Sullivan have apparently caused him to reconsider his defense of true marriage.

A bit much, if you ask me.

  34 Comments      


Do they want failure?

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* One of the components of the possible pension reform compromise that’s under discussion would be to use money currently appropriated for pension bonds to make pension payments once those bonds are paid off. The Tribune editorial board doesn’t like the idea

The state sold a total of $17.2 billion in bonds to make payments into the pension funds in 2003, 2010 and 2011. The state will be done paying off some of the bonds by 2015. One huge bond sale — the $10 billion borrowed under Rod Blagojevich — will be retired in 2033, freeing up more money to pay down the pension system’s liability.

That component — one of the linchpins of the draft proposal — worries us.

First, future money that would be set aside after the bonds are paid off is money that might better be spent elsewhere on education, Medicaid and services for the state’s most vulnerable. Or — get this — tax relief. Instead, under this plan it would be spent propping up a system that will perpetuate overly generous benefits that taxpayers simply cannot afford.

* OK, but the Tribune has repeatedly and forcefully editorialized in favor of House Speaker Michael Michael Madigan’s pension reform proposal, including this May 8th diatribe entitled “Knock yourselves out, Senators - But know that the fate of Madigan’s bill will define you”

Madigan’s plan makes it easier to project savings because it is based on more predictable outcomes.

* From an April 30th SJ-R story about Speaker Madigan’s pension plan

Madigan’s plan also calls for the state to use $1 billion a year now allocated to repaying pension bonds to paying down pension debt once the bonds are retired.

So, the Trib is now attempting to slay a proposal that it has long supported. Why? I dunno. But I think it’s fair to suggest the same answer that the Tribune itself discussed on June 12th

And there’s plenty of suspicion that good buddies Madigan and Cullerton aren’t really at impasse, they’re just gaming everybody; failure, for some reason, suits them.

* Now, let’s go back to the more recent editorial blasting the possible compromise plan

Money from the state’s main checking account that now pays down pension borrowing debts would be redirected once the debts are paid off. The money would be invested and, assuming an 8 percent return, eventually get pumped back into the pension system to reduce the liability.

Any investment adviser will tell you that expecting an 8 percent return is, um, an arguably fanciful projection. Yet the plan would work only if those steady returns materialize.

* From the Tribune Company’s 2012 financial statement

Effective Dec. 30, 2012, the Company began utilizing the Aon Hewitt AA-Only Bond Universe Yield Curve for discounting future benefit obligations and calculating interest cost. The Aon Hewitt yield curves represent yields on high quality (AA and above) corporate bonds that closely match the cash flows of the estimated payouts for the Company’s benefit obligations. Prior to Dec. 30, 2012, the Company had utilized the Citigroup Pension Discount Curve for discounting future benefit obligations and calculating interest cost.

The Company used a building block approach to determine its current 7.5% assumption for the long-term expected rate of return on pension plan assets. This approach included a review of actual historical returns achieved and anticipated long-term performance of each asset class.

Emphasis added for obvious reasons.

  37 Comments      


Today Lard

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a photo taken at yesterday’s Du Quoin State Fair Republican Day and posted on 115th House District candidate Terri Bryant’s Facebook page

…Adding… Just so there’s no confusion, I’m not trying to cast any aspersions at all on Ms. Bryant. It’s just a funny picture.

  46 Comments      


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Wednesday, Aug 28, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

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