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Schimpf doubles down on his worst idea ever while rewriting history

Tuesday, Mar 16, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Jeff Berkowitz’s recent interview with Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul Schimpf

Schimpf: But the other mistake that Governor Pritzker made - and this goes back to the idea that we should have been focusing on either protecting our most vulnerable population and then also making sure that our medical capacity was not overwhelmed - is he used the positivity rate as his metric for deciding whether or not areas were going to be reopened, or whether they were going to have to shut down again. And the positivity rate should not have been the metric that we were using.

Berkowitz: What metric would you have used knowing what you knew in April of 2020?

Schimpf: I would say we needed to focus on the hospitalization rate. How are the are the number of people that are being hospitalized, is that increasing? […]

Berkowitz: And knowing what you knew then, not what you know, when do you suppose you would have made that decision to start relaxing as well started opening?

Schimpf: I wrote that letter and signed that letter in the middle of April.

Schimpf was referring to a letter that he and other Senate Republicans sent Gov. Pritzker on April 15 of last year.

* The claim about the importance of the positivity rate vs. hospitalizations is historically inaccurate. Here’s Dr. Ezike [it actually may have been Gov. Pritzker, but I’d need to go back and listen to make sure] on April 14 of last year

Perhaps the most accurate leading indicator of our progress is our hospitalization data. Right now, if someone is sick enough with a respiratory illness to need hospital care, then it’s likely that that person has COVID-19, whether or not they have been tested.

On April 6, the number of known COVID patients and suspected COVID patients totaled 3680. On April 10, that number was 4020. On April 11, it was 4104. On April 12 4091. As of today, it was 4283.

Hospitalizations peaked last spring on April 28 at 5,027. Hospitalizations didn’t drop below 4,000 until May 21. They didn’t drop below 3,000 until June 4th - 53 days after Schimpf would’ve let off the brakes.

In other words, Schimpf would’ve eased up on mitigations while his supposedly most important metric was still rapidly increasing and at the tail end of an enormous spike. That clearly would not have ended well.

By the way, IDPH didn’t even include the positivity rate in press releases by mid-April last year (I found that above Ezike/Pritzker quote while looking through media briefing transcripts). I checked with the governor’s office this morning and was told the 7-day average positivity rate last April 15 was 22.7 percent.

So, skyrocketing hospitalizations, huge positivity rate (albeit with low testing numbers) and yet, let’s open it up.

Wonderful.

  29 Comments      


Pritzker interview roundup

Tuesday, Mar 16, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. JB Pritzker did several interviews with reporters yesterday. Subscribers have my report, but here are some highlights from the others. Mary Ann Ahern at NBC 5

Gov. J.B. Pritzker said while he anticipates opening up vaccine eligibility - particularly in the months ahead to meet President Joe Biden’s deadline of having all adults eligible by May 1 - the exact timing of Illinois’ expansion isn’t clear.

“No announcements yet about what 1C would look like, I just think that people should start to think very much about you know the fact that we’re going to open this up to everybody relatively sooner than I think people expected,” Pritzker said during the interview Monday. “Certainly by May 1 and we’ll do it sooner than that I believe in the state of Illinois.”

* CBS 2’s Dana Koslov focused on the IDES backlog

Kozlov: “We’re a year in. Why is this still happening?”

Pritzker: “Well, let me begin by just saying that when you’re in the most difficult moment of your life – when you’ve lost your employment and you need help – you ought to be able to get to it.”

And that is exactly why alarms sounded when Acting IDES Director Kristin Richards stated, at a hearing, that some callback times were getting worse. She said current response times were “upwards of four weeks.”

Pritzker disputes that, calling it inaccurate. But he did say: “We’ve gotten better at this, but it’s not good enough. There’s no doubt about it. It’s not good enough, and that’s why we continue to apply people, technology, dollars to fixing the system; making it easier.”

Fixing it would make the questions go away. Just sayin.

* Greg Hinz at Crain’s

After a full year of COVID-19 battles that has taken a toll on him and his state, Gov. J.B. Pritzker says he has no real second thoughts about the decisions he’s made to fight the pandemic.

“If I knew then what I know now, I probably would have made some changes,” such as implementing a statewide mask order earlier, Pritzker said in an interview late Monday, exactly one year after the state’s first COVID death. Of all government restrictions, “it’s clear masks have done the most” to slow the infection rate.

To date, Illinois has reported nearly 21,000 COVID-related fatalities and 1.2 million cases. That’s actually more on a per capita basis than in some states, notably Florida, which imposed far fewer restrictions for a far shorter time than Illinois, and whose experience has made some wonder if Pritzker made the right tradeoff.

Pritzker rejected that suggestion. Florida “is different,” he said, with a much different population mix than Illinois and a warmer climate which keeps people outside more often and away from indoor venues where the virus spreads more quickly.

The better comparison to make would be with New York and California, particularly New York City and Los Angeles. “Hospitals were over-run” in New York last spring and in LA this winter,” he noted. “That didn’t happen here.”

Just as an aside

“From March to early June, Republican-led states had lower Covid-19 incidence rates compared with Democratic-led states. On June 3, the association reversed, and Republican-led states had higher incidence,” the study by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Medical University of South Carolina showed.

“For death rates, Republican-led states had lower rates early in the pandemic, but higher rates from July 4 through mid-December,” the study found.

* Mike Flannery at Fox 32

The governor says a hoped-for summer re-opening of the tourism-hospitality business, Illinois’ second-largest employer, is not entirely up to politicians.

“And I think it’s very important for us to recognize that there are a lot of people who are still afraid. And I don’t blame them,” Pritzker said.

* Rachel Hinton at the Sun-Times

“Remember, a hurricane hit us effectively with this pandemic and what Donald Trump ignited was a heavy headwind in addition to the hurricane that was hitting us,” Pritzker said. “I had to just decide that this wasn’t about politics and that, even if he was trying to convince people not to wear masks … that I needed to do everything that I could to keep people safe. And that’s what I’ve done.”

The governor gave an emphatic “no” when asked if he was worried that his efforts during the pandemic may tank his potential bid for a second term, adding “I’m focused on doing what’s right for the people of the state of Illinois and not on the politics.” […]

Half the funds from the recently passed COVID-19 relief bill should be available by April and the state has to make sure they’re used “prudently,” Pritzker said.

“What’s important about it is we we’ve got to make sure that those dollars are used prudently, that we pay down debt that we incurred as a result of the coronavirus, that we pay down bills that were incurred during this pandemic and that we ignite job creation and economic growth with those dollars,” Pritzker said. “I think that’s the best and wisest use for us in this pandemic, and that’s what I’m here to encourage the Legislature to do.” […]

Pritzker is eligible for the vaccine in Phase 1B plus, but he said he’s waiting to get his dose to avoid jumping the line.

* Mark Maxwell at WCIA

While Pritzker stopped short of calling on Cuomo to resign, he said he supports a “thorough investigation,” believes the women accusing Cuomo of harassment and misconduct “should be listened to,” and suggested the Albany legislature may decide to remove him from office.

“A decision needs to get made in New York by the people of New York, by the people in the legislature in New York, whether or not Governor Cuomo should stay in office,” Pritzker said.

When asked if he plans to run for re-election in 2022, Pritzker said, “that’s not something I’m thinking about right now.”

* Marissa Nelson and Amanda Vinicky at WTTW

“I feel better today than I have this entire year,” Pritzker said Monday during an interview with “Chicago Tonight.” “As you see, our numbers have significantly declined, the numbers of people going into the hospital, getting sick, going on a ventilator in an ICU, and we’ve got more people vaccinated on a per capita basis than any other of the top 10 largest states in the country.”

On Monday, Illinois launched a COVID-19 vaccine hotline to help residents book appointments — a process many have found to be challenging.

“We have a decentralized public health system in the state of Illinois, and so 97 local public health departments,” Pritzker said. “They don’t answer to the state, they answer to their local county governments. That’s been one of the challenges.”

Illinois offered the same appointment-making software to every local public health department, but many chose not to use it, he said.

* Hannah Meisel at WUIS

Though COVID-19 has been all-encompassing this year, Pritzker has also dealt with issues not directly related to the pandemic — and much ink has been spilled over a string of perceived political losses. In November, voters overwhelmingly rejected his signature graduated income tax constitutional amendment, which he spent more than three years — and millions of his own dollars — campaigning on as both a gubernatorial candidate and as governor.

Pritzker recently backed Chicago Ald. Michelle Harris (8) to head the Democratic Party of Illinois after the departure of longtime House Speaker Mike Madigan from party chair last month, only to see U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly of Matteson ascend to the position with backing from U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin. The governor also failed to muscle through a significant revenue-related bill during lawmakers’ Lame Duck session in January.

In these losses — coupled with the tension that’s built up between the executive and legislative branches of government during the past year where Pritzker has mostly ruled via executive order — does the governor think he has any bridges to mend with fellow Democrats and voters?

“Look, I’ve not been focused on the politics what I’ve been focused on is really keeping people safe, keeping them alive,” Pritzker said. “If I was focused on politics, I would have made different decisions and more people would have died.”

A recent poll from 1892 Polling found voters were split 41% to 41% on public opinion of Pritzker, with 18% reporting no opinion. Pritzker on Monday dismissed that poll for its pollster’s history in Republican politics, including former Gov. Bruce Rauner’s 2014 campaign, and instead pivoted to programs his administration set up to help struggling Illinoisans.

“It’s been a difficult year for everybody, there’s no doubt about it,” Pritzker said. “What I’ve been focused on is lifting people up trying to get them the assistance that they need, whether it’s with the largest rental assistance program in the United States, the Business Interruption Grant [BIG] program, the childcare support program that we put in place — the largest in the United States and uses a model now nationally.”

He did an interview with the Tribune, I’m told, but it’s not up yet.

…Adding… Oops. Missed one. Dave McKinney and Tony Arnold at WBEZ

Another GOP criticism directed at Pritzker involves his administration’s inability to safeguard residents of Illinois’ state-run veterans’ homes from COVID-19. Since the pandemic began, nearly 80 COVID-19 deaths have been reported at state-run veterans’ homes, with 36 of those fatalities reported at the LaSalle veterans’ home alone.

“It does get to this level of (a) …question of competence,” said Senate Minority Leader Dan McConchie, R-Hawthorn Woods, one of Pritzker’s harshest critics in the General Assembly. “Just because you have a pandemic going on, just because you have a long-term crisis, doesn’t mean the governor should get a pass in regards to this level of mismanagement on these and other things.” […]

But Pritzker shrugged off any negativity from the newly seated top Senate Republican.

“It’s clear there’s a lot of politics involved here. The Senate minority leader, Dan McConchie, [has] consistently been wrong in his criticism. Remember that it’s his caucus and members of his caucus that have been frequently the ones who are telling people ‘don’t worry about wearing masks, don’t worry about mitigations,’ that in fact have seen deaths and people getting sick in their areas,” the governor said.

“There’s been very little leadership on the part of Republicans, in general, and specifically here in Illinois,” Pritzker said.

  24 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Tuesday, Mar 16, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x1 *** It’s just a bill

Monday, Mar 15, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Local sheriff leads the charge against the next outrage

The bill is sponsored by Rep. Camille Lilly, who buckled to pressure last year and tabled a different controversial bill after the public heat became too intense.

*** UPDATE *** Email…

Good Afternoon Rich-

I saw the post today on Capitol Fax regarding HB 3913, the bill that removes barriers for people on the sex offender registry. James Medrick doesn’t seem to understand that the sex offender registry has proven to be an ineffective method to ensure public safety. However, it is effective at continually letting legislators and law enforcement off the hook for failing to actually respond to survivors’ needs and addressing sexual violence.

As an organization that advocates for survivors, we support HB 3913. We understand the importance of reducing or eliminating punishments that are not evidence-based and redirecting resources to real prevention strategies and support for survivors. Also, lowering the housing restrictions (from 500 ft to 250 ft) will help address the housing crisis created by the sex offender registry in Chicago and elsewhere among people with sex offenses who have homes but legally cannot live in them when they exit prison.

If you are interested in learning about or sharing our perspective, this blog post details our position. You can also see a short synopsis of our view in our Legislative Priorities for 2021. Also, feel free to reach out if you would like to speak to someone at CAASE about this issue.

Thank you for your time!


Hayley Forrestal | Communications Manager

Chicago Alliance Against Sexual Exploitation

* Press release…

Senate GOP Leader ­­­Dan McConchie on the need for executive power changes

“One year ago, Gov. Pritzker issued his first executive order, granting him sole decision-making power for millions of Illinoisans,” said Illinois Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods). “Over the next twelve months, the governor extended his state of emergency power by delivering executive order after executive order—a total of 76 times, shutting down our economy and making massive public health decisions without the inclusion of the legislature or the communities we represent. This go-it-alone strategy is not representative of our democracy, which is why I have introduced Senate Bill 103, requiring the General Assembly to approve any subsequent renewal of emergency powers after the initial 30-day state of emergency declaration.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated our families and businesses in Illinois. We must learn from this horrible situation and improve our governing process to allow for more seats at the decision-making table to reach better outcomes. I believe that this bill will help ensure Illinois has the most effective response possible in any future pandemic or disaster.”

The bill is co-sponsored by Republican Sens. Sue Rezin, Jason Barickman and Terri Bryant.

* W3D Country

Abortion clinics would be required to offer patients the opportunity to view an ultrasound under legislation State Representative Paul Jacobs (R-Pomona) is sponsoring.

House Bill 683 would create the Ultrasound Opportunity Act. It would require attending physicians, referring physicians or other qualified personnel to offer any woman seeking an abortion after 8 weeks of gestation the opportunity to receive and view an active ultrasound prior to an abortion being performed.

“This legislation does not require abortion clinics to show patients ultrasounds but merely requires them to at least make the offer to do so,” Jacobs said. “There is no question that seeing an ultrasound has a big impact and can change people’s minds about having an abortion. But women should have all of the facts before making such a big decision and besides, anyone who is pro-choice should be in favor of legislation that gives women more choice and that is what my bill does.”

* NPR Illinois

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred a renewed focus on mental health issues, particularly among students. Some Illinois lawmakers say schools must bolster suicide prevention procedures to better identify warning signs.

Back in 2015, the General Assembly passed “AnnMarie’s law,” named after 11-year-old AnnMarie Blaha of Orland Park, who died by suicide after two classmates allegedly set up fake profiles on social media and persuaded her to take her own life.

The law called for the Illinois State Board of Education to develop a statewide suicide awareness and prevention policy for schools. Prevention policies must include reporting procedures, intervention methods, and professional development training for teachers and staff.

The House Elementary and Secondary Education Committee this week passed HB 577 , which is aimed at building on AnnMarie’s law by specifically identifying in state statute groups of students who are more at-risk of committing suicide — including students who are homeless, identify as LGBTQ, or suffer from substance abuse.

* Related…

* Vegetable gardener takes fight to the Illinois Capitol

  19 Comments      


Cook Political Report editor discusses some remap ideas

Monday, Mar 15, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* US House editor of the Cook Political Report…


Notice that he keeps the current Latino district intact. There will be pressure to create two Latinx districts in the coming mapmaking process. Also, the chair of the House Redistricting Committee is Rep. Elizabeth Hernandez and the Senate’s Redistricting Committee chair is Sen. Omar Aquino.

He does have a point about creating another Downstate Democratic district by correcting the Dems’ 2011 mistake and no longer splitting all of their Metro East turf into two districts. He would take away some GOP voters from Cheri Bustos and give her a few more Dems. Lauren Underwood does even better in this map.

* Politico

Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s congressional seat could be eliminated when Illinois conducts its remap, according to the Cook Report’s David Wasserman.

Taking out the current 16th Congressional District makes “geographic sense,” Wasserman said in his subscription-only report. […]

The 16th District stretches from Indiana up to the border with Wisconsin and touches the fast-growing Chicago exurbs and some downstate districts. “More rural/GOP parts of it could go to Rep. Darin LaHood’s 18th CD and Rep. Mary Miller’s 15th CD, while its Rockford suburbs and the liberal university town of DeKalb could go to Democratic seats,” writes Wasserman.

* Back to Wasserman…


Thoughts?

…Adding… Related…

* Illinois Legislative Leaders Separately Discuss What is a ‘Fair Map’

* Changing face of Illinois Democrats evident in Madigan’s successors

  49 Comments      


House Democrat on Pritzker loophole closures: “We’re not hearing that’s going to happen”

Monday, Mar 15, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jake Griffin at the Daily Herald has the best story I’ve yet seen about the governor’s corporate loophole closure proposal. There’s just too much good stuff to excerpt, so you should definitely click here and read the whole thing. However, buried deep down is this little nugget

State Rep. Fred Crespo, a Hoffman Estates Democrat, said he doubts the governor can get those changes made by the legislature.

“I am always concerned when there are assumptions built into those budgets that might or might not happen,” Crespo said. “In closing those corporate loopholes, I think he valued that at close to $1 billion. … We’re not hearing that’s going to happen.”

Rep. Crespo chairs the House Appropriations-General Services Committee.

…Adding… From a House Dem involved with the budget-making process…

I’m not sure who Fred speaks for here. We haven’t even started going through each loophole yet.

  10 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Monday, Mar 15, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x1 *** New jobless claims fall nationally and in Illinois, but serious problems persist here

Friday, Mar 12, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Emily McCormick

U.S. states saw new jobless claims fall more than expected to reach a four-month low last week, as impending spring weather and more vaccine-driven business reopenings allow hiring to pick up.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics included in the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

    • Initial jobless claims, week ended March 6: 712,000 vs. 725,000 expected and a revised 754,000 during the prior week
    • Continuing claims, week ended February 27: 4.144 million vs. 4.200 million expected and a revised 4.337 million during the prior week

* CBS 2

The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) reported 57,483 new unemployment claims were filed last week, a nearly 16% decrease from the week before, when 68,111 people filed.

For comparison, during the same timeframe last year, 8,727people filed claims in Illinois. That’s a 559% increase. […]

Illinois’ latest claims make up about 8% of the estimated 712,000 filed across the country last week.

There were 68,383 new unemployment claims filed during the week of Feb. 15 in Illinois.

* Lourdes Duarte, Andrew Schroedter at WGN

There appears to be no end in sight to the avalanche of fraudulent unemployment filings in Illinois.

In the latest twist, the owner of a Northwest Side bridal shop called WGN Investigates after a stack of letters from the Illinois Department of Employment Security arrived at her business. The letters asked her to verify unemployment claims for 10 people.

But here’s the rub: They were sent to her address, but she didn’t recognize a single name. Not one person had worked at the bridal shop. There was even one in her mother’s name. […]

“The states are so overwhelmed, they haven’t figured out how to keep this from happening,” Terry Savage, a personal finance expert, said.

Savage has been tracking trends in fake unemployment claims since the start of the pandemic. Savage said scammers are constantly coming up with different ways to trick the system, including using random addresses to file claims.

*** UPDATE *** IDES…

The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) announced today that the unemployment rate decreased -0.3 percentage point to 7.7 percent, while nonfarm payrolls were up +9,700 jobs in January, based on preliminary data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and released by IDES. The December monthly change in payrolls was revised from the preliminary report, from -2,500 to -9,200 jobs. The December unemployment rate was revised from the preliminary report, rising +0.4 percentage point to 8.0 percent.

The January payroll jobs estimate and unemployment rate reflects activity for the week including the 12th. The BLS has published FAQs for the January payroll jobs and the unemployment rate.

In January, the three industry sectors with the largest over-the-month gains in employment were: Professional and Business Services (+11,500), Leisure and Hospitality (+5,100), and Other Services (+2,400). The industry sectors that reported the largest monthly payroll declines were: Financial Activities (-6,400), Construction (-3,200), and Government (-1,800).

“While the unemployment rate and job markets continue to be impacted by the ongoing effects of COVID-19, with vaccination rates continuing to increase, we are focused on building a strong recovery on the other side of this pandemic,” said Deputy Governor Dan Hynes. “This administration is fully committed to supporting individuals displaced from their jobs and ensuring small businesses and working families have the support they need to recover and grow in a post-pandemic economy.”

“Today’s data shows that Illinois is making steady progress in restoring jobs and building towards economic recovery,” said Sylvia Garcia, Acting Director of the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO). “Under Governor Pritzker’s leadership, we have deployed over $1 billion to date in emergency relief programs to help some of the hardest hit businesses and communities in our state. The recent passage of the American Rescue Plan will further support our economic recovery with additional emergency relief to help build back key industries, support our workforce, and provide targeted investments for businesses and communities that need it most.”

The state’s unemployment rate was +1.4 percentage point higher than the national unemployment rate reported for January, which was 6.3 percent, down -0.4 percentage point from the previous month. The Illinois unemployment rate was up +4.2 percentage points from a year ago when it was 3.5 percent.

Compared to a year ago, nonfarm payroll employment decreased by -504,800 jobs, with losses across all major industries. The industry groups with the largest jobs decreases were: Leisure and Hospitality (-216,600), Government (-71,100) and Educational and Health Services (-65,400). Illinois nonfarm payrolls were down -8.2 percent over-the-year as compared to the nation’s -6.3 percent over-the-year decline in January.

The number of unemployed workers fell from the prior month, a -3.6 percent decrease to 473,000, and was up +114.0 percent over the same month for the prior year. The labor force was down -0.1 percent over-the-month and down -3.5 percent over-the-year. The unemployment rate identifies those individuals who are out of work and seeking employment. An individual who exhausts or is ineligible for benefits is still reflected in the unemployment rate if they actively seek work.

  22 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Friday, Mar 12, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

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« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Rep. Canty says she is ‘disturbed’ by LIG’s conduct
* Illinois becomes 19th state to beat back DOJ on voter database seizure attempt
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Rep. Kelly Cassidy: Speaker Welch has issued a 'series of excuses, victim blaming, and a failure to publicly acknowledge shortcomings'
* LIG initially recommended no expulsion proceeding against Benton - One complainant claimed 'inaccuracies' in the report
* Speaker Welch statement (Updated x2 with Pritzker statement)
* LIG report released
* Legislative Ethics Commission still fine-tuning Benton report (Updated)
* Pritzker says he looks forward to seeing Welch's CPS funding plan
* Sean Grayson denied early medical release from prison
* Turning Promise Into Progress For Illinois Students
* Color me highly doubtful
* Governor Pritzker, Fight For Us.
* Today's must-read
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Good morning!
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