But the Dillard campaign claims their own county-by-county tally is different than the AP’s numbers. With all precincts counted, Dillard’s numbers show that he trails Brady by just 115 votes.
What makes this even more intriguing is that the Dillard campaign has the final tally between the two men quite a bit different than the AP. Here are the Dillard totals with the AP numbers in parentheses…
Brady 154,468 (155,263)
Dillard 154,353 (154,857)
And Dillard’s total GOP gubernatorial vote count is different than the AP’s…
AP 765,371
Dillard 764,994
In a normal race, that wouldn’t mean much, but perceptions are hugely important in a situation like this. Dillard needs to make sure people know he’s much more viable than the AP is saying. Considering technological advances, a recount probably won’t produce much of a vote change. But there just might be enough absentees and provisionals out there to overcome that 115-vote difference.
Did the AP double-count something? Did Dillard undercount something? That’s where you come in.
I think what we need to do is download the Dillard campaign’s numbers [use the right-click function to download that thing]. Then, go to the AP’s county-by-county map, scroll over the counties and see what those totals are compared to Dillard’s. Once we have the discrepancies, we can then then go to the individual county/city clerk websites and see who is right.
Is anybody up for this? Lots of work, but could be fascinating to some of you wonkish types.
* Meanwhile, the AP also has Quinn over Hynes by 8,090…
Illinois - 11215 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 460,376 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 452,286 50%
That’s a lot of votes to overcome, man.
Gov. Quinn is doing a media availability tonight at 6:55 before he appears on Chicago Tonight. So, we’ll track that.
The Democratic Governors Association just weighed in for Pat Quinn and added a bit of gentle, but not-so-subtle pressure on Dan Hynes to concede…
Democratic Governors Association Chair Gov. Jack Markell issued the following statement after the Illinois gubernatorial primary:
“I want to congratulate Governor Pat Quinn on his victory. During a global recession and difficult political conditions, Gov. Quinn has successfully restored confidence in state government, balanced the budget and fought to create good jobs for Illinois’ working families. He’s taken concrete steps to turn the corner on this recession and has the kind of optimistic vision for the future that will build a 21st century economy instead of taking Illinois back to the failed policies that caused this recession.”
“I also want to congratulate Comptroller Dan Hynes on running a strong race. He should be very proud of his time in public service and we all believe he will continue to build on what is already an impressive record.”
DGA Executive Director Nathan Daschle echoed Governor Markell’s confidence that Democrats will hold the Illinois governorship.
“While the Republicans will likely spend the next several weeks talking to judges and lawyers, we look forward to talking to voters,” Daschle said. “Eventually we’ll learn which one of these Springfield insiders with a 20-percent mandate will try to become governor on a record of fiscal irresponsibility and failed economic policies. Given what their court battles are bound to entail, though, this morning’s Unity Breakfast would have been better billed as a Prayer Breakfast.”
“I also commend our colleagues for making that the world’s shortest “unity” breakfast. It must have been uncomfortable with so many candidates brushing elbows at the head table, and I hope they had enough coffee – though I imagine there was plenty of tea to go around.”
* The AP also has Plummer over Murphy by 4,722…
Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Name Party Votes Vote %
Plummer , Jason GOP 237,646 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 232,924 33%
And Miller over Krishnamoorthi by 8,328…
Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11215 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Miller , David Dem 392,000 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 383,672 46%
* 5:03 pm - I received the following press release just six minutes before sundown, when Sen. Kirk Dillard had earlier predicted that he would be ahead in the count. He’s still behind, of course…
State Senator Kirk Dillard, Republican candidate for governor, today released the following statement in response to the current status of the Republican gubernatorial race:
“Yesterday was a real testament to the strength and power of our grassroots. Both Senator Brady and I were vastly outspent in this primary, but we are the ones still standing today. The strength of that grassroots support is how Republicans are going to take back the Governor’s seat this November.
But a winner has not been decided yet. Yesterday’s election was really close and the simple fact is that they are still counting the votes. There are hundreds of provisional and absentee ballots left to be counted along with several precincts votes to be reported. We believe every Illinoisan’s voice needs and deserves to be heard. We do not know who won yet and we probably won’t for several more days.
Rumors of a victory are not legitimate when votes are still being counted. I’m confident that when all of the ballots have been counted, I will be the Republican nominee for Governor.”
The “rumors” he’s probably referring to here are Sen. Bill Brady’s claim that he’s still about 430 votes ahead.
The AP count, which hasn’t moved since the last time I told you about it…
* 5:07 pm - Meanwhile, in the other gubernatorial race, we have yet to hear anything out of Dan Hynes, who is still seven thousand or so votes behind Gov. Quinn…
Illinois - 11143 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 454,665 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 447,235 50%
My intern Dan Weber asked Rep. Jack Franks a few minutes ago what he thinks Dan Hynes should do right now. Franks endorsed Hynes in the primary. Dan also asked Franks why he thought Hynes came up short. Have a look…
Last night, my intern Barton Lorimor talked to Quinn campaign finance director David Rosen about the election results. “I think that one person cannot divide the party any longer,” Rosen said. Rosen also called the victory a “mandate,” and said that even a “one-point” win would be a “mandate.” Watch…
* 5:18 pm - State GOP Chairman Pat Brady says the back and forth on this Brady/Dillard primary could take quite a while…
Republican state senators Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady remained only a few hundred votes apart, with Brady up slightly Tuesday afternoon. That photo finish is threatening a lengthy and costly recount, though neither campaign has said yet they are ready to pull the trigger.
“It could be a couple of months,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady about a final outcome. “It depends on what happens today. We are not done yet.”
Illinois - 11142 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 454,665 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 447,235 50%
Jason Plummer leads Matt Murphy by 4,976…
Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11142 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Plummer , Jason GOP 237,478 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 232,502 33%
Miller leads Krishnamoorthi by 6,923…
Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11142 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Miller , David Dem 386,641 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 379,718 46%
* UPDATE 1 - 2:44 pm - It appears, but I can’t be totally sure, that the precinct count is done in Cook County and included in those numbers. Dillard isn’t moving up as fast as maybe he thought he would. We still have late absentees and provisionals, however.
* UPDATE 2 - 2:49 pm - Clinton County has finished counting its three outstanding precincts. Brady picked up a net 53 votes - a tiny bit more than I expected. St. Clair County is still reporting one precinct not counted.
* UPDATE 3 - 3:18 pm - From the Cook County Clerk’s office…
All precincts reported in suburban Cook County
Unofficial election results for all precincts in suburban Cook County are now posted on cookcountyclerk.com.
Absentee ballots postmarked by midnight on Feb. 1 will be added to the results if they arrive within two weeks of the election. About 800 provisional ballots will be individually checked and, if validated, added to the tally.
Precinct-level results are coming soon.
* UPDATE 4 - 3:20pm - From a commenter…
The City Board of Elections is now reporting everything no except Chicago ward 4 precinct 37.
From this morning:
Dillard +115
Brady +39
Net for Dillard +73
Brady has reportedly told WLS Radio that all votes are in and he won by about 400 430 votes.
Also from comments…
St Clair only has 199 precincts. Yes I counted. #200 might be a software bucket for early or absentees or whatever.
* UPDATE 5 - 3:47pm - The Dillard campaign was hoping to pick up a net of about 100 votes in uncounted Chicago precincts. They fell just a bit shy. Based on my reading of an internal memo, they also apparently didn’t pick up what they thought they would on Cook County absentees.
They were saying earlier that they thought they were about 218 votes down, but that’s not happening yet, of course.
The more immediate problem for Sen. Dillard right now - and it’s one of perception - is that he claimed this morning that he would be ahead by “sundown” today. Sundown today is at 5:09 pm. That’s an hour and 22 minutes from now.
* Mark Kirk has released a couple results from a new campaign poll which he says has him thumping Alexi Giannoulias in the US Senate race. From a press release…
Just hours after winning the Republican nomination in a landslide election, five-term Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk today released a new survey showing his campaign out to an early double-digit lead over Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias, 47% to 35%.
The survey of 885 Illinois voters, conducted by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies between February 1-2, 2010 with a 3.3% margin of error, showed Kirk holding a net positive favorable/unfavorable rating of +5% while Giannoulias held a net negative favorable/unfavorable rating -15%.
* An NRCC spokesman trashed Dan Seals…
“The nomination of two-time loser Dan Seals is severe blow to the Democratic establishment’s hopes to running a winning campaign in November. As a Democrat, Seals will still have to defend an unacceptably high unemployment rate, a skyrocketing deficit and an out-of-touch agenda to the voters who’ve rejected his ideas twice before.” – Tom Erickson, NRCC spokesman
* The DCCC slammed Sen. Randy Hultgren…
Republican candidate for Illinois’ 14th Congressional District State Senator Randy Hultgren’s real record of raising taxes stands in stark contrast to his hypocritical pledge to oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax rates. This hypocrisy was not lost on Hultgren’s primary opponent, Ethan Hastert, when he said in a radio commercial “Senator Randy Hultgren, voted for a massive $31 billion tax increase just last year…Randy Hultgren campaigns like a Springfield politician too.”
“Randy Hultgren’s hypocrisy on pledging to not raise taxes and then voting for a $31 billion dollar tax increase, shows his Springfield political tendencies of talking out of both sides of his mouth,” said Gabby Adler, Midwestern Regional Press Secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “In these tough economic times, Illinois families need an honest Representative whose priority is helping middle class families and creating jobs, and State Senator Randy Hultgren simply does not meet this standard.”
* The DCCC also went after Bob Dold…
Republican candidate Robert Dold, who is running against Dan Seals in the 10th Congressional District of Illinois, not only wants to privatize Social Security, he wants to raise the retirement age – taking away critical benefits from Americans of all ages that they have rightly earned and deserve. Just as Washington Republicans are dusting off old failed plans from the past to privatize Social Security, Robert Dold seems to be fitting right in with these Washington Republicans who have time and again attempted to dismantle Social Security.
“Illinois families simply cannot afford to let Robert Dold take us back to the failed policies of George W. Bush that would privatize Social Security and cheat seniors who have worked hard and played by the rules out of the retirement benefits they earned,” said Gabby Adler, Midwestern Regional Press Secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It is only Day One of this campaign, and Robert Dold is already mimicking the very Washington Republicans who shamefully want to jeopardize Social Security when so many Americans are still reeling from their investment losses of the past two years.”
* As I told you earlier, the NRSC has a new YouTube vid slamming Giannoulias. The DSCC issued a press release…
CONGRESSMAN MARK KIRK TO KICK-OFF GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN WITH FELLOW WASHINGTON INSIDER AND MEGA LOBBYIST HALEY BARBOUR
Kirk’s First Move After Winning Primary Is To Stand Shoulder To Shoulder With Embodiment Of GOP Establishment And Special Interests
Republican “Unity” Event To Feature Same Players That Got Country Into Economic Mess In First Place
Today, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is on the offensive against Republican Senate nominee Mark Kirk for kicking off his general election campaign with fellow Washington insider and Mexico lobbyist Haley Barbour. The Republican “Unity” event comes less than 24 hours after Congressman Kirk won the Republican nomination. Now, instead of reaching out to voters he will need to win over in November, Kirk has decided to make a statement about his candidacy by instead, standing shoulder to shoulder with Barbour, who is the embodiment of the GOP establishment and of special interests, having served as Chairman of the RNC and a mega lobbyist in DC.
“Congressman Mark Kirk made a bold statement today about his general election campaign by holding his first post-primary event with a politician whose resume as a Washington insider rivals his own,” said DSCC National Press Secretary Deirdre Murphy. “Instead of reaching out to independent voters, Kirk has decided to kick-off his campaign by standing shoulder to shoulder with fellow Washington insider and establishment Republican Haley Barbour. As if they needed a reminder, this event just shows that Illinois voters will face a stark contrast this November between a candidate who wants to take the state forward and one who wants to take the state backwards.”
In many counties, the machines will not only reject the ballots, they’ll beep.
Voters then must take the ballot to an election judge, who will ask the voters if they intentionally left part of the ballot blank. If not, they’ll be allowed to vote in those races. If so, the ballot will be approved. […]
Even in counties where machines don’t beep, voters with rejected ballots will have to approach an election judge, show their ballot and ask for help, said Schultz.
State Board of Elections Director Daniel White said election judges are required to protect the integrity and the secrecy of the voting process and doubts there will be serious problems.
“There’s no reason for them to be staring at the ballots,” White said.
They shouldn’t even be looking at ballots, let alone starting at them.
We’re supposed to have a secret ballot, but when we decided not to vote in a particular race it was no secret to those assembled at our polling places. Election judges were required to ask if we really wanted to leave a race blank. They had enough to do without that extra chore.
People accidentally skip races. The way my paper ballot was laid out yesterday, that would’ve been easy to do.
I first encountered this undervote warning several years ago in Chicago. The card reader wouldn’t accept my ballot and it caused some consternation with the polling judges.
I always undervote. I never vote for unopposed candidates, for instance, and I often skip over judicial retentions. I undervoted yesterday in Springfield and a little light went off alerting me, and all I had to do was push that button and I was done. No biggie. So, it’s probably not a huge deal for many of us…
A first-time law aimed at catching ballot errors took effect with Tuesday’s election. It calls for voters to be notified of an “undervote,” that is, if they did not vote in races for statewide constitutional office. If they choose, they can go back and vote in that race. Most did not.
“No. There’s no complaints,” said election judge Mike Chiras after handling Tazewell County voters like Long at the Methodist church. “They know what they want to do.”
“No. There’s been no problem with that,” agreed Harold Dikeman, who was serving as an election judge for Knox County in Yates City. “I know everybody was worried about that.”
Concerns were raised that the 2007 law might create more confusion, not to mention more expense to upgrade voting machines. A couple of state legislators hope to overturn it, and even some sponsors have called for more review.
However, this would not be a good thing, if true. From Illinois Review…
One frustrated voter from Aurora spoke to IR today, telling the story of purposefully under-voting because they didn’t know enough about certain candidates and offices. By the time their ballot was submitted, several poll workers had reviewed it - one even asking them why they weren’t filling it all out and pointing to the specific offices this person had purposefully not voted in!
That voter should’ve called the authorities. I hope IR suggested it. I would’ve.
Do you deliberately undervote?
* Here’s your campaign roundup…
* Todd Stroger Talks Race Relations in Concession Speech
*** UPDATE 1 *** Dan Hynes’ campaign manager just said Obama called Hynes as well and didn’t ask Hynes to concede.
*** UPDATE 2 *** From Hynes spokesman Matt McGrath…
While I would never pretend to speak for the President, it was a warm call, wherein he indicated that he understood our position that every vote should be counted.
[ *** End of Updates *** ]
* President Obama tried to force Dan Hynes’ hand today. No luck yet, though…
President Barack Obama called Gov. Pat Quinn to congratulate him on his win in the Democratic primary, even though back in Illinois opponent Dan Hynes has not conceded yet.
News of the phone call, which came at a White House press briefing, puts added pressure on Hynes, who is mulling his options as he trails Quinn by about 7,100 votes. […]
In the Democratic governor’s contest, Hynes is staying out of the public eye so far today.
“We are still in the same posture as last night, taking a look this morning at where things stand,” Hynes spokesman Matt McGrath said. “We’re not prepared to declare victory or concede until all the votes are counted.”
“I lost an election to Harold Washington in 1983, and the next day I had breakfast with Harold, and I supported him. Just like a basketball or football game, it’s over with, then you support the individual” he said.
But Daley refused to say that Comptroller Dan Hynes should concede to Gov. Pat Quinn and help strengthen the Democratic push to hold onto the governor’s mansion.
“I don’t know. It’s real close,” the mayor said. “I don’t know all the — I haven’t seen the end result.”
“I don’t really want to get into the campaign’s mood, other than tired after a long night,” said Hynes spokesman Matt McGrath. “For the time being, we are waiting for every vote to be counted, and that will be our posture for the foreseeable future.”
Thom Serafin, a Chicago political strategist who has advised both Republicans and Democrats in the past, said the feeling on the ground is that Quinn will probably narrowly escape with a win, but that Hynes could mount a recount.
“Dan Hynes has a determination to make on proceeding with any kind of discovery,” he said. “He probably should do it with how close it is.”
* The latest results as of 1:46 pm…
llinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 451,871 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 444,779 50%
There’s also about 800 provisional ballots that need to be verified and at least 1,000 absentee ballots to be counted. The absentee ballots had to be postmarked Monday, but have two weeks to arrive at county offices.
Around 7,000 total absentee ballots were sent out, and about 3,700 already have been counted.
* Sen. Bill Brady talks to the press as he arrives at the Illinois Republican Unity Breakfast this morning. Brady said he considers Illinois be to a “center right” state…
* 7:30 am - I’ve been up all night working, so I’m gonna take a nap. I have session this afternoon and I definitely need some rest.
I’ll post more stories later. But if big news breaks - somebody concedes, or final counts come in, or the like - please post it here and discuss it in comments. Thanks.
…By the way, I just checked the site stats, and yesterday’s traffic was higher than any day since Rod Blagojevich’s arrest. Wow.
* A good friend sent me an e-mail last night with the subject line: “A message to the national media”…
Go ahead and try to decipher those election non-results and fit them into your nice little MSM political puzzle.
Heh. Scott Brown redux it wasn’t, that’s for sure.
Let’s see, now…
The flawed incumbent governor won a hard-fought primary with gigantic piles of cash from SEIU (horrors) and old guard party leaders. A conservative gubernatorial candidate with no real ties to the “Tea Party” types is essentially tied with the candidate of the true GOP old guard. A moderate Republican tied his conservative tea party enemies in knots and easily won the US Senate primary, and his Democratic opponent defeated a noted “reformer” backed to the hilt by angry newspaper editorial boards - and his chief of staff won the treasurer’s primary with slating from party regulars. A ten-year state Rep. defeated an insurgent “new politician” in the Democratic comptroller’s race. A longtime office-holder won the Republican comptroller’s race. And a pawnbroker with a past won the Democratic lt. governor’s race…
Scott Lee Cohen, a pawn broker and cleaning supply distributor, appeared to be edging out state Rep. Art Turner for the Democratic nomination. Cohen had 26 percent of the vote to Turner’s 22 percent, with 97 percent counted.
Cohen, a little-known candidate who financed much of the campaign with his own fortune, will have to answer questions during the general election race as more is learned about him. He was charged with a 2005 misdemeanor domestic battery charge.
He was accused of beating a woman, but the case was dropped a month later when she refused to show up in court to pursue the charges.
Hmmm. How about Jason Plummer? He’s certainly a fresh face, but he got the lt. guv nomination after spending a ton of his family’s money on a mostly non-ideological campaign.
Ethan Hastert’s loss to Sen. Randy Hultgren? Maybe. But was it “insider vs. outsider” or just “the kid ain’t his old man”?
Bob Dold over Beth Coulson in the 10th CD Republican primary? Dold was a mainstream conservative who touted his endorsement by Sen. Dick Lugar. Dick Green was the candidate who really tried to reach out to the “tea party” types.
Adam Kinzinger in the 11th CD? Great, young politician. Will get a lot of help from DC. But his primary opposition wasn’t much to crow about, and he’s basically a hand-picked DC candidate, so I’m not sure you can say he’s a total outsider.
Toni Preckwinkle probably comes closest, but she’s a black, liberal, wonkish Democrat. That’s not exactly the meme being developed by the DC crowd these days.
The Tribune ecstatically congratulated voters for listening to its constant rants and ousting Todd Stroger (as if that was in any danger of not happening). It didn’t mention all those other big losses, though, except for a petulant broadside against Giannoulias which began with an out-of-context quote from the preznit.
Can you think of an appropriate meme for this primary election? Snark heavily encouraged.
If I project out the remaining Cook County precincts based on the previous ones, I show Dillard picking up another 800 votes and Brady another 225. That would make the statewide margin Dillard 154,876, and Brady 154,877 — an advantage of literally one vote for Brady.
Silver didn’t include results from three Downstate precincts, where I give Brady about a 36-40 vote net advantage, plus things like provisional ballots, absentee ballots, etc. But this race is certainly close. Very close. It’s going to a recount for sure.
He’s totally right about the Quinn/Hynes race, though…
In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, incumbent Pat Quinn is performing slightly better than his statewide numbers in Cook County and it looks like his ~7,000-vote advantage over Dan Hynes will expand rather than contract. There might be a recount but unless there are mass irregularities or whole stashes of ballots that haven’t been counted yet, it is unlikely to change the outcome.
It’s over. Hynes should bow out. The same goes for Raja Krishnamoorthi…
Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Miller , David Dem 383,895 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 377,717 46%
Krislov , Clint Dem 62,729 8%
And Matt Murphy…
Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Plummer , Jason GOP 236,445 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 231,469 33%
…Adding… Jason Plummer isn’t waiting on Sen. Murphy to concede and has gone ahead and declared victory. From a press release…
Jason Plummer, Republican candidate for Lt. Governor declared victory this morning. With 99percent of all Illinois precincts reporting, Plummer leads his closest opponent by nearly 5000 votes. “Late last night, I accepted the congratulation of three of my opponents, this morning as the Republican Party’s Lt. Governor nominee, I look forward to out ticket coming together and beginning the work of creating a new brand of leadership in Springfield.” Plummer said.
Plummer and some of his supporters will attend the Republican Party Unity Breakfast this morning at the Union League Club in Chicago.
We’ll have video from that unity breakfast later today.
Right now, the results are unofficial. Election authorities will count late-arriving absentee ballots, randomly check some of the results, inspect voting equipment and then declare official winners.
That takes two weeks. Then the losing candidates might decide to seek a recount.
Unlike some states, Illinois doesn’t automatically conduct recounts in close races. Officials say the candidates have to go to court and ask for one.
546-vote margin. Dillard made up about 900 votes since the last tabulation. I think that was from the uncounted (by AP) votes in Lake County. Dillard is outpolling Brady 3-1 in the city and almost 4-1 in suburban Cook.
Scott Lee Cohen, a pawn broker and cleaning supply distributor, appeared to be edging out state Rep. Art Turner for the Democratic nomination [for lt. governor]. Cohen had 26 percent of the vote to Turner’s 22 percent, with 97 percent counted.
Cohen, a little-known candidate who financed much of the campaign with his own fortune, will have to answer questions during the general election race as more is learned about him. He was charged with a 2005 misdemeanor domestic battery charge.
He was accused of beating a woman, but the case was dropped a month later when she refused to show up in court to pursue the charges.
* As I told you earlier, Raja Krishnamoorthi refused to concede. But there’s little chance of overturning this one…
Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11097 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Miller , David Dem 382,850 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 376,897 46%
That’s almost 6,000 votes. In the age of electronic balloting, that’s gonna be pretty darned tough, if not impossible to overturn. Here’s Rep. David Miller’s speech…
510 votes. That’s a 36-vote pickup in the six precincts counted since the last update - 6 votes per precinct. If that trend holds, Dillard picks up a net 708 votes - meaning he has the potential of winning by 198 votes. LOL. Recount city, baby.
There are 117 GOP precincts still to be counted in suburban Cook and Chicago. Only one other precinct remains unaccounted for. I’m not sure where that one is, or maybe AP and I have different numbers for Cook/Chicago.
* Clinton County hasn’t yet counted 3 precincts. Brady is doing very well there, and if current trends hold, he picks up about 35 or 36 net votes.
* St. Clair County hasn’t yet counted one precinct. Based on current trends, that’s a couple/three votes net for Brady.
503-vote margin. That’s only a seven-vote pickup, even though 21 precincts were counted. Not many Republicans in those precincts. Somebody on the Brady team might want to call Clinton and St. Clair counties and see if they can finish counting tonight, but he may not need it. Fun.
* 2:24 am - David Orr has suspended tallying. From a press release…
To allow for public viewing, tallying of results for suburban Cook County will resume on Wednesday, Feb. 3, at the Clerk’s election warehouse, 4545 W. Cermak, Chicago.
Counting of the remaining 24 of 1,937 precincts will begin at 9 a.m. All are welcome.
Unofficial suburban Cook County election results, suspended at 98.76 percent of precincts reporting, are available at cookcountyclerk.com.
That really sucks.
* I just got an e-mail from the Jim Ryan campaign…
ELECTION DAY:
Help Us Send 100,000 E-Yard Signs Today!
It’s Primary Election Day — and today the Illinois Republican voters will take a first step toward restoring honest, ethical authentic leadership to Springfield.
I would be honored to have your vote — and need your help to get our voters to the polls today.
That explains some things.
* Well, since Cook, Chicago, St. Clair and Clinton counties have all suspended counting, it’s time to end the blog portion of our program.
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 430,328 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 425,129 50%
And…
Plummer , Jason GOP 229,685 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 222,540 33%
And…
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 362,465 46%
Miller , David Dem 361,770 46%
* 10:56 pm - With just 3 precincts to count, Seals is ahead by 658 votes. That’s pretty much impossible to overcome…
Seals , Daniel Dem 22,325 48%
Hamos , Julie Dem 21,667 47%
* 11:10 pm - Andy McKenna just basically said the race is too close to call. No concession.
* 11:38 pm - Reporters have been told that Gov. Quinn will come downstairs in about 10 minutes. It won’t be to concede, I guarantee you that. lol
* 11:46 pm - At the moment, it appears the AP is undercounting Andy McKenna’s numbers in Lake County by about 3,500. They’re undercounting Dillard by 1,401 votes. They’re undercounting Brady by 504. That’s a 900-vote pickup for Dillard. With about 7900 GOP votes not counted in Cook County and Chicago and about 1,000 votes not counted in Downstate, who the heck knows what could happen now?
* 11:58 pm - Hynes is about to speak.
Hynes - “We are going to continue fighting.” … “This is a close race. A very, very close race.” … “About half have voted for me and half have voted for him.” … “But if democracy means anything, it means we need to count all the votes. All of them.” … “There are thousands of ballots that haven’t been counted. And whatever the outcome, it’s important for Illinois to get this right. So we say, ‘Hang in there, hold on tight.” … “Let’s just keep fighting until tomorrow.”
Wow. I just don’t see how he can come from as far back as he is. We’ll see what his people say.
* As far as Dillard goes, it looks - to my tired eyes - like he is losing by about .16 votes per precinct overall. That’s closer than the Thompson-Stevenson race. Recount for sure there.
* 12:08 pm - Here comes Gov. Quinn.
“The time for fighting is over. The people have won and we have won this election!” … “It was a close election, but one more than the other guy is a landslide in my book.” … “I think it’s important to understand that the primary is over.” … “When the winning candidate emerges from the primary, we unite behind that candidate for the cause of Illinois.” … “All of us together, we have to make the will of the people the law of the land.”
* 12:26 pm - We’re now at 99 percent…
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 442,543 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 437,161 50%
Plummer , Jason GOP 234,301 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 227,279 33%
Miller , David Dem 374,855 46%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 371,301 46%
* 12:27 am - Kirk Dillard is speaking…
“In just a few more hours, we feel confident that the race will be called for us.” … “Breaking reports show that we are within less than a thousand votes of victory.” … “I am confident that when the votes are counted, we will win now and we will win in Novemer.” “If the trend continues on how they will carry those precincts, then I will be your nominee…”
* 12:35 am - So, I missed most of Brady’s speech. Anybody catch it?
* The GOP “Unity Breakfast” in the morning ought to be fun.
* Burt Odelson is on ABC7 now. The election lawyer represents the Quinn campaign. He suggests this could take 30-45 days.
* Hynes campaign manager Mike Rendina talked to ABC7 - They’re going to look at results to see if the margin closes. Not talking about recounts just yet.
* 12:53 am - From a press release…
The following is a statement by Raja Krishnamoorthi, candidate for Illinois Comptroller.
“First of all, I would like to thank the hundreds of thousands of voters who chose to give Illinois a more open, transparent and accountable state government. Until every vote is counted fully, accurately and completely, this race is not over.”
Results in that race so far…
Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11056 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Miller , David Dem 375,661 46%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 372,552 46%
Krislov , Clint Dem 61,590 8%
* 9:42 pm - With 82 percent reporting, we’ve got a “wow” situation developing…
Brady , Bill GOP 118,349 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 114,717 20%
McKenna , Andy GOP 113,832 20%
With 83 percent in, GOP lt. guv candidate Jason Plummer is making his move…
Plummer , Jason GOP 182,218 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 178,231 33%
Downstate is really hurting both McKenna and his running mate Murphy.
Democrat David Miller is holding a few thousand-vote lead over Raja Krishnamoorthi in the Democratic comptroller’s race. Scott Lee Cohen has a commanding 20,000-vote lead over Art Turner for Dem lt. guv. Oh, man, there’s gonna be trouble.
And Gov. Quinn is holding steady with his 2-point edge over Dan Hynes. Not looking good for the challenger there.
* 9:46 pm - 86 percent…
Brady , Bill GOP 124,437 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 123,183 20%
McKenna , Andy GOP 121,560 20%
Half of DuPage is still not counted, so keep that in mind. Murphy and the DuPage guv candidates could make a run there. And 160 Cook County precincts have yet to be counted.
Could be a long night.
* 9:54 pm - David Hoffman has conceded the Democratic US Senate race.
* 9:56 pm - DuPage’s numbers have just jumped up to 86.5 percent counted, so we’ll have a readjust soon.
* Quinn and Hynes are now within 6,000 votes or so with 87 percent counted…
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 393,369 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 387,044 50%
90 percent counted and Dillard moves up…
Dillard , Kirk GOP 134,790 20%
Brady , Bill GOP 132,038 20%
McKenna , Andy GOP 130,189 19%
91 percent…
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 407,908 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 401,439 50%
* I didn’t notice this earlier, but AP has an interactive map of the results as they come in and which counties have not yet reported full results. Click here.
* 93 percent…
Dillard , Kirk GOP 139,977 20%
Brady , Bill GOP 137,843 20%
McKenna , Andy GOP 133,739 19%
93 percent…
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 412,092 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 406,811 50%
* 10:13 pm - With 99 percent of the vote counted, Dan Seals leads Julie Hamos in the 10th CD Dem primary by 662 votes.
* Ethan Hastert has conceded to Sen. Randy Hultgren in the 14th CD Republican primary. Big upset there, man.
* 10:15 pm - 93 percent counted…
Plummer , Jason GOP 216,071 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 212,554 33%
93…
Miller , David Dem 351,126 46%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 350,874 46%
* 10:22 pm - State Sen. Dan Cronin won big in the DuPage County Board Chairman’s race. With 96.5 percent of the votes counted…
Dan Cronin R 40980 47.92%
Debra L. Olson R 23643 27.65%
Gary Grasso R 10756 12.58%
Carole Pankau R 10140 11.86%
* 10:24 pm - 94 percent…
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 417,494 50%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 412,040 50%
94…
Dillard , Kirk GOP 142,748 20%
Brady , Bill GOP 139,809 20%
McKenna , Andy GOP 135,987 19%
94…
Plummer , Jason GOP 219,107 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 215,988 34%
94…
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 354,202 46%
Miller , David Dem 352,763 46%
* 10:35 pm - Jim Ryan has conceded and said he thinks Sen. Dillard will “probably” win the race.
* 10:39 pm - Champaign County is finally reporting most of its results and Bill Brady leads Dillard in that county by 3,000 or so votes. We’ll get a reset in the AP numbers soon. However, the Dillard people point to the uncounted votes in Cook and DuPage as what will put them over the top.
* 10:45 pm - There are 416 precincts still to be counted in the Democratic gubernatorial race and Dan Hynes trails Gov. Pat Quinn by 5,154 votes. So, Hynes needs to win every precinct by an average of 12.39 votes to come even. Just a little math to show you how tough this is for him right now.
* Here’s that reset I mentioned above. 96 percent counted…
* 8:39 pm - OK, let’s cut through some of the clutter and look at a few interesting races.
In the 10th CD GOP race, Bob Dold has a huge lead over state Rep. Beth Coulson, 38-29, with 66 percent of the vote counted. And third-time Democratic candidate Dan Seals is leading state Rep. Julie Hamos 49-45.
Toni Preckwinkle has the Cook County Board President’s race wrapped up. She’s got 48 percent of the vote with 70 percent counted.
Dan Hynes better hope he has a ton of support downstate and in the suburbs because the Chicago and Cook County results really hurt him. With 41 percent of the vote counted, Gov. Quinn leads Hynes 53-27 (about 23,000 votes).
Andy McKenna is leading on the GOP side with 40 percent counted…
McKenna , Andy GOP 48,941 24%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 39,877 19%
Ryan , Jim GOP 37,641 18%
Andrzejewski , Adam GOP 30,430 15%
Brady , Bill GOP 27,770 14%
As Downstate votes are being counted, Scott Lee Cohen has moved up in the Democratic lt. guv race. This is with 36 percent counted…
Turner , Arthur L. Dem 89,812 25%
Cohen , Scott Dem 89,207 25%
Sen. Matt Murphy has a 12-point lead over Jason Plummer, but Plummer has been closing a bit. Democrat David Miller leads Raja Krishnamoorthi in the comptroller’s race, but only by a bit…
Miller , David Dem 171,364 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 168,153 46%
Robin Kelly has a big 58-42 lead on Justin Oberman in the Democratic treasurer’s race.
What else are you seeing?
…Adding… Former Senate Democratic staffer Elgie Sims is losing badly to incumbent Cook County Commissioner Bill Beavers. Beavers leads with 20,234 votes to Sims’ 16,354 with about 80 percent of the vote counted. I can’t see how he makes up those votes.
*** 8:54 pm *** Hamos is closing fast…
U.S. House - District 10 - Dem Primary
Illinois - 447 of 511 Precincts Reporting - 87%
Seals , Daniel 19,490 48%
Hamos , Julie 18,854 47%
Dillard is also closing…
McKenna , Andy 79,503 22%
Dillard , Kirk 70,316 20%
Ryan , Jim 62,371 17%
Brady , Bill 59,788 17%
* 9:04 pm - Rep. John Fritchey won by a huge margin in the 12th county board district…
John A. Fritchey 17,418 75.52%
Ted Matlak 5,645 24.48%
* 9:06 pm - Hynes is closing a bit with 64 percent counted…
Quinn , Pat 324,542 51%
Hynes , Daniel 306,741 49%
So is Dillard…
McKenna , Andy 92,141 21%
Dillard , Kirk 85,304 20%
As Downstate votes come in, Scott Lee Cohen is pulling away. He’s ahead of Rep. Art Turner 26-23. David Miller and Raja Krishnamoorthi are just 5400 votes apart (Raja leads).
* 9:18 pm - Close, but McKenna is still holding on…
McKenna , Andy 96,190 21%
Dillard , Kirk 91,546 20%
Brady , Bill 90,785 19%
* Plummer is closing fast…
Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 7958 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 71%
Murphy , Matt GOP 148,855 34%
Plummer , Jason GOP 144,772 33%
* My interns are in Chicago. Barton is with the Quinn campaign and filed this little crowd-shot video…
* Dillard is pulling closer to McKenna. He’s now just 2700 votes behind with 77 percent counted. Percentage-wise, they’re tied at 20. Also, Bill Brady is just a few hundred votes behind Dillard. He’s also at 20 percent.
Sen. Matt Murphy’s lead is now just 5,000 votes, with 77 percent counted.
* Rep. Beth Coulson has conceded in the 10th GOP CD race.
* 9:34 pm - Rep. David Miller has moved ahead of Raja Krishnamoorthi in the comptroller’s race with 80 percent counted…
Miller , David 315,102 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja 311,536 46%
With 80 percent of the vote counted, Hynes has not budged the margin…
Quinn , Pat 373,194 51%
Hynes , Daniel 362,810 49%
Alexi Giannoulias is maintaining a 5-point lead over David Hoffman (39-34).
Plummer pulls ahead with 81 percent counted…
Plummer , Jason 174,356 34%
Murphy , Matt 173,569 34%
* Huge upset in the making in the 14th Congressional District primary…
U.S. House - District 14 - GOP Primary
Illinois - 431 of 578 Precincts Reporting - 75%
Hultgren , Randy GOP 26,256 54%
Hastert , Ethan GOP 22,739 46%
* If you want to watch TV news feeds or watch the various live-blogging from other sources, click here. Let’s use this post to blog the results ourselves.
Robert Marshall 11,072 4.86 %
David Hoffman 69,245 30.38 %
Jacob J. Meister 3,130 1.37 %
Alexander ‘’Alexi'’ Giannoulias 82,403 36.16 %
Cheryle Jackson 62,058 27.23 %
Arthur L. Turner 57,590 27.57 %
Terry Link 16,662 7.98 %
Rickey R. Hendon 43,158 20.66 %
Scott Lee Cohen 46,800 22.40 %
Thomas Michael Castillo 26,420 12.65 %
Mike Boland 18,273 8.75 %
Justin P. Oberman 83,023 40.88 %
Robin Kelly 120,061 59.12 %
* 7:56 pm - These are all results available at the moment, both city and county…
Cook County Board President
Illinois - 2149 of 4510 Precincts Reporting - 48%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Preckwinkle , Toni Dem 123,388 47%
O’Brien , Terrence Dem 60,330 23%
Brown , Dorothy Dem 39,577 15%
Stroger , Todd (i) Dem 38,849 15%
* Live Chicago only results…
* 8:10 pm - Latest statewide results…
U.S. Senate - 2010 - Dem Primary
Illinois - 2812 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 25%
Giannoulias , Alexi Dem 113,579 37%
Hoffman , David Dem 99,694 32%
Jackson , Cheryle Dem 76,771 25%
Governor - Dem Primary
Illinois - 2788 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 25%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Quinn , Pat (i) Dem 165,932 53%
Hynes , Daniel Dem 144,927 47%
Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 2774 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 25%
McKenna , Andy GOP 21,930 27%
Ryan , Jim GOP 16,167 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 14,960 18%
Andrzejewski , Adam GOP 12,954 16%
Proft , Dan GOP 7,354 9%
Brady , Bill GOP 6,927 9%
Lieutenant Governor - Dem Primary
Illinois - 2743 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 24%
Turner , Arthur L. Dem 73,177 26%
Cohen , Scott Dem 65,991 24%
Hendon , Rickey Dem 52,421 19%
Castillo , Thomas Dem 34,456 12%
Link , Terry Dem 29,221 10%
Boland , Mike Dem 25,388 9%
Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 2741 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 24%
Murphy , Matt GOP 32,379 45%
Plummer , Jason GOP 18,129 25%
Tracy , Don GOP 7,477 10%
Cook , Dennis GOP 6,395 9%
Cole , Brad GOP 4,967 7%
White , Randy GOP 2,882 4%
Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 2738 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 24%
Miller , David Dem 137,052 48%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 129,214 45%
Krislov , Clint Dem 20,054 7%
Comptroller - GOP Primary
Illinois - 2732 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 24%
Baar Topinka , Judy GOP 45,066 61%
Kelly , William GOP 15,120 20%
Dodge , Jim GOP 13,780 19%
Treasurer - Dem Primary
Illinois - 2734 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 24%
Kelly , Robin Dem 158,625 58%
Oberman , Justin Dem 114,316 42%
* 8:18 pm - Still a bunch of votes to be counted, but the two IL House members aren’t doing well at all…
U.S. House - District 10 - GOP Primary
Illinois - 276 of 511 Precincts Reporting - 54%
Dold , Robert GOP 7,486 37%
Coulson , Elizabeth GOP 5,777 28%
Friedman , Arie GOP 3,510 17%
Green , Dick GOP 3,185 16%
Hamann , Paul GOP 467 2%
U.S. House - District 10 - Dem Primary
Illinois - 276 of 511 Precincts Reporting - 54%
Seals , Daniel Dem 10,713 50%
Hamos , Julie Dem 9,571 45%
Richardson , Elliot Dem 1,147 5%
* 8:20 pm - Scott Lee Cohen is making a move…
Lieutenant Governor - Dem Primary
Illinois - 3436 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 31%
Turner , Arthur L. Dem 84,252 26%
Cohen , Scott Dem 79,816 24%
* NBC5 starts its extended coverage at 9 o’clock. You can watch it here. Click that link for its six o’clock broadcast as well. The embed was causing problems for some people, so I took it down. I’ve also readjusted this post and I’ll be adding more in a bit, including links to results. Be patient, please.
* Y’all can keep track of the Chicago Current exit polling if you want, but their numbers are so low that I’m not gonna update them any longer. No offense to CC. It was a worthwhile endeavor. But 12 precincts in Cook County ain’t much.
* I mentioned this in comments earlier, but I’m almost hoping for a little Karmic justice for the Democrats today. If some supreme Democratic goofballs unexpectedly win because of the low turnout, general disinterest and - most importantly - way too early date of this primary [and it’s compressed schedule], then Karma will have been appropriately meted out because the House Democrats, in particular, refused to move this thing back to March where it belongs. As a policy, I don’t wish any party ill will, which is why I wrote “almost,” but this is just ridiculous.
Good turnout in counties favoring us over Kirk, e.g. Carroll & McHenry
Carroll County? You mean that county with a total population of under 17,000? This is the big strategy?
* I’m not sure when Langdon Neal said this, or where he’s been, but I’m not getting the impression so far that there’s a “growing interest” out there. He’s the expert, though, so we’ll see…
“There’s seems to be a growing interest in the election from the voters. So, we’re hoping to reverse the trend and see a larger turnout from voters than we usually have for a primary election,” said Langdon Neal of the Chicago Board of Elections Commission.
Numbers are horrible in Sangamon County, but expected to improve…
Sangamon County Clerk Joe Aiello says that as of early afternoon today, the percentage of voters going to polling places in the county seems to range from about 7 to 13 percent.
He said he expects that total to top 20 percent with the coming after-work crowd.
25 percent was the statewide turnout in 2006. The Tribune has a good graph to put all this into context…
“We’re looking real light, maybe 15 percent turnout,” predicted St. Clair County Clerk Bob Delaney. That’s on the low side of average for St. Clair. The statewide average for primaries is higher (around 25 percent for off-year primaries, says the State Board of Elections), spurred largely by Chicago. But local media up here are reporting almost in unison today how measely the turnout has been at the polling places so far.
There’s likely a few things at play. It could be that a lot of people took advantage of the early voting system available this year, so it only looks like turnout is down. And the usual after-work spike in voting could still push the numbers to better than average. Also, it’s a cold, overcast day in Chicago, which, like the rest of the state, is used to voting in early spring, not mid-winter.
Paul Green, political scientist at Chicago’s Roosevelt University, has a simpler explanation: That despite all the breathless media declarations about the importance of these primaries, what average voters are seeing are average candidates.
“There’s not an Obama or a (Chicago Mayor Richard) Daley running — no bigger-than-life figure,” said Green. “None of these candidates would need a bodyguard to walk down Michigan Avenue.”
Just got off the phone with Champaign County Clerk Mark Shelden who says that voter turnout today appears to be very low. That’s what I’m hearing from others in the community.
He said we’d be lucky to get a 20 percent turnout today (the 2006 numbers) and that it could be as low as the 1986 non-presidential primary percentage of 17.5 percent.
* Mayor Daley caption contest!…
# ryancudney: Best photo yet of a politician voting http://bit.ly/bHGR1T [They changed the link, so I did, too.]
# RutherfordDan: precinct committman in Kane County tells me his precinct is projecting only 5 to 6% turnout
# ramsincanon: I really think the shifting patterns in the Cook and inner DuPage, Lake, and Will burbs are the deciders for lots of these elections.
# ramsincanon: If @hoffman4il were to pull off an upset of @alexi4illinois, it’ll be because of reflexive anti-Chicago-Dem-Machine vote in Cook Suburbs.
# BrianMcDaniel: At 3:15 PM, only 91 of 865 have voted in my precinct. Rs - 56 Ds - 35
# kiyoshimartinez: Man, even the polling places in Logan Square are kinda hipster-ish.
# kiyoshimartinez: My polling place keyed my card for a Democrat ballot. Had to take it back & say “Um, I know this is rare, but I want to vote Republican.”
# kiyoshimartinez: I dunno if it’s because I pulled a Republican ballot, but I was NOT offered an “I voted” sticker.
# bmeyerson: As school gets out in Schaumburg, students and parents dwarf the few voters.
# AdrianCurrent: Handed a survey, a woman says, “I don’t remember who I voted for.” This was a few seconds after she voted.
# BrianMcDaniel: Turnout’s so low that the #ILPrimary may rest with eastern DuPage where most of the Gubernatorial candidates live.
# AdrianCurrent: A woman walks toward a polling place, asking, “Can I have some propaganda?”
# Suntimes: Conspicuously absent in this election day photo gallery? Voters. http://bit.ly/9tJCXx Light turnout today. Get on it, folks!
# Suntimes: RT @ascorzo: @Suntimes I’m working one of the polls today, we’ve only had 21 people vote so far.
# ilreports: With Illinois voters deciding his fate Quinn signs Funeral/Burial Funds Act/Cemetery Sales Act http://ow.ly/138rc & http://ow.ly/138rJ
# juggernautco: Field report: one Winnetka polling place has turnout at 35% at 1:30PM
* This revelation would definitely be a kick in the teeth [or help for the fall] to Gov. Pat Quinn, who so eagerly embraced the White House plan to move Gitmo detainees to Illinois…
The second-ranking House Democrat signaled Tuesday that the White House is reconsidering a plan to move Guantanamo detainees to a prison in northwest Illinois.
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said he agrees that the Obama administration should reassess the plan to move terrorist suspects from the Cuba military base to Thomson Correctional Facility in the state’s northwest corner.
“I think the administration realizes that this is a difficult issue,” Hoyer said, speaking at his weekly meeting with Capitol Hill reporters. “And I think that they are assessing where they are and where they think we ought to be and I think that’s appropriate and I look forward to discussing it with them.”
Congress would have to appropriate such funds, which could prove a stumbling block for the White House plans. Republicans have been largely unified in opposition to the prison move and Democrats such as Rep. Melissa Bean of Illinois have joined along.
It’s clear that the Scott Brown election has totally, completely freaked out the DC Dems. Everything is now up in the air. Yesterday, LA Times blogger Johanna Neuman mused: “Could Gitmo topple Democrats in Illinois?”
Brown got a lot of traction in Massachusetts suggesting that U.S. tax dollars shouldn’t go to defend terrorist suspects but to protect Americans. Will Gitmo help Kirk too?
…Adding… It should be noted that Obama has the Thomson prison purchase in his budget proposal. They could still buy the prison, which would be a win/win for Quinn - no Gitmo prisoners and money from the feds.
* Chicago Current’s Cook County/Democratic-only exit polling isn’t going well…
(I)t’s clear that turnout so far at these four polling places is well below what we expected.
We based our turnout projections for today on vote counts from the 2006 Democratic primary, and in some cases we’re seeing numbers that are 50-60% of what we expected. […]
If turnout is as low as I suspect, it’ll have some implications for our exit poll results, too. We originally hoped to tally results from about 500 Dem voters, but we’ll likely have far fewer than that, which will mean a wider margin of error for some calculations.
We’d originally planned to survey 25 precincts, but logistics are interfering, and we’ll probably wind up with about half that. We’d targeted 600 voters, but low turnout will probably leave us with about half of that count.
“I have no freaking idea what’s going to happen Tuesday,” said Kitty Kurth, a Chicago-based Democratic consultant. “It’s going to be an election that’s going to have people scratching their heads for a week.”
* Toni Preckwinkle’s campaign manager Scott Cisek’s latest Tweet…
just returned from the field and I saw some serious electioneering in the 8th ward [Stroger]. Complaints have been phoned in.
* A text message from the 42nd Ward…
True to form, [Rep. Ken Dunkin is]… walking into polling
places, electioneering next to polling booths, etc. Also found pre-marked Dunkin ballots…
Board of Elections and States Attys are currently investigating electioneering and ballot fraud
* An instant message from a good friend…
so one of my friends got called 10 min ago and begged to go in and do gotv calls for quinn today, they NEED people. really? hmm..nice gotv plan
GOTV has not been the strong suit of any statewide candidate this year. All their money is going into TV.
# jaymesiemer: Last primary, I was one of 2 Republican votes in my Chicago precinct. Now that I have a new precinct, I’m hoping for at least 3.
# Pantagraph: Midterm primary turnout historically low in McLean County http://bit.ly/ax5sRG
# thomascbowen: “Did I do everything I could have?” Is the most haunting feeling in the world.
# Brooke22: Lowest Illinois primary turnout was in 1978 when just 25% of registered voters voted. Wonder what today’s will be?
# thomascbowen: Dear national media: I like Russ Stewart, but if he’s the guy you’re relying on for IL political analysis, you don’t know what you’re doing
* Adam Andrzejewski’s supporters were all aflutter yesterday about a supposed endorsement by shock jock Glenn Beck. Beck disabused them of that notion today. A Dan Proft supporter gets in a dig…
Anyone who actually listens to the Glenn Beck Program would be mightily confused, as Beck didn’t even mention his name, let alone talk about the GOP race for governor in Illinois. Put simply, it just didn’t happen.
1. Gov. Pat Quinn will edge Comptroller Dan Hynes in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. People know Quinn better than they know Hynes and, despite his flaws and missteps, they like him.
2. Kirk Dillard will win the Republican gubernatorial primary. GOP voters will see in his comparative moderation their best chance at regaining the governor’s mansion. He will not beat the combined vote totals of Adam Andrzejewski and Dan Proft, who will split the substantial yet ill-focused Earl Grey vote with Bill Brady, but he’ll handily beat former party chairman Andy McKenna ,who will do worse than expected.
3. I can see Cook County Board President Todd Stroger pulling a Dick Devine-like upset surprise tonight, but in the end I expect Ald. Toni Preckwinkle will narrowly edge him out for the Democratic nomination for Stroger’s job, and that Terry O’Brien and Dorothy Brown will lend up far behind.
4. Former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman will run strong in Chicago and the suburbs but Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias will beat him on the strength of the downstate vote.
Any last-minute changes of heart in your predictions?
* Man, does Alexi looked tired in this pic of him at Manny’s Deli or what?
Other pols have visited the deli this morning. Its Twitter feed lists, Giannoulias, Dorothy Brown and Scott Lee Cohen. Terry O’Brien stopped by yesterday. Dan Hynes was there a few days ago.
* As subscribers know, 59th House District Republican candidate Cynthia Hebda was disqualified for the ballot because she signed a petition for the Democratic incumbent - appointed state Rep. Carol Sente (D-). The Illinois Supreme Court ordered last week that votes for Hebda be counted (she was still on the ballot because the appellate ruling came so late in the game). The House Republicans put Hebda in the race, and are now scrambling to help her win the primary against two opponents with big head starts.
Lake County Clerk Willard Helander said she expects Hebda to demand a special election, depending on today’s results.
That race has been ugly on both sides. Sente and Elliott Hartstein have been slamming each other and the House Republicans pulled a bit of a dirty trick on the incumbent…
Sente wasn’t as understanding when it came to automated calls made recently to voters by a Republican political group that said Sente is a member of the National Rifle Association. Sente denied she’s a member of the group. So did the association’s spokesman.
The group behind the calls, Citizens to Change Illinois, is funded by state House Republican leader Tom Cross. A Cross spokeswoman defended the calls.
And then yesterday, some group made what looks to be a possibly illegal robocall into the district designed to confuse voters. Here’s the text…
All around the state the Democrats have engaged in last minute dirty tricks to confuse Republican voters in the upcoming primary. Don’t be fooled. The only two legally recognized candidates in the Republican Primary for State Representative in your district are Mohan Mania and Dan Surge [sic]. Paid for by Republicans for a fair election.
There’s no such group listed at the Board of Elections website, of course.
* Illinois Review posted the Log Cabin Republican endorsement list last night. The comments are quite funny, particularly considering that Kirk Dillard was endorsed and is also supported by conservative activist Jack Roeser, who is not exactly noted for his support for gay rights.
* Jacob Meister dropped out of the US Senate race the other day, but somebody posted his yard signs near a polling place today…
To help root out voter fraud and voting irregularities during Tuesday’s primary election, Attorney General Lisa Madigan will be sending out teams across the state to help monitor polling places.
A total of 166 teams comprised of Assistant Attorneys Generals and investigators will be assigned to various polling places to assist local election officials in investigating claims of fraud. Madigan has assigned 125 teams in Chicago and northern Illinois and 41 teams in downstate Illinois.
Madigan’s office also has hotlines available for voters who witness improper or illegal activity. Voters in Chicago and northern Illinois can call 1-866-536-3496. Downstate voters can call 1-866-559-6812.
* Primary Campaign Contributions — Governor: Crain’s Chicago Business and the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform have teamed up to provide a snapshot of campaign financing in important state and local 2010 races.
* Let’s start a fresh thread, shall we? The first one is full.
Also, we know the turnout is low, so some numbers from your polling place would be welcomed. This report from the LaSalle News Tribune was enlightening and frightening…
The four precincts at the La Salle VFW were so slow today that by 7 a.m. there were more election judges (20) on hand than people who had voted (15).
Raymond Miklavcic, an election judge at La Salle precinct 7, counted just seven voters in the door — low even by primary standards.
“It’s horribly slow,” Miklavcic said. “Primaries are normally slow, but this is ridiculous.”
Have at it.
*** UPDATE 10:53 am *** Twitter hashtag #ilvote has more updates from the front. But a lot of it is just propaganda…
TheCHICon Just cast my ballot, place was empty. Oh and they didn’t ask for ANY ID. @danproft - @hughesforsenate - lets hope for the best! #ILvote
National political pundits have been busy trying to divine broad meaning from Illinois’ Groundhog Day primary, but that noisy class of professional crystal ball gazers could be in for a challenge if an early collective yawn from voters continues through the day.
City election officials said turnout for the first hour of voting was extremely low. Jim Allen, communications director for the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, said there were precincts all over the city that experienced as few as two voters coming through their doors. […]
Cook County Clerk David Orr, who oversees election machinery in the suburbs, said morning turnout appeared “relatively slow,” though it was too early to make any broad projections about how things might end up by the time the polls close at 7 p.m.
“A lot of people vote late and whether or not this snowy weather will have an effect, who knows,” said Orr as he visited a precinct at the Dorchester Senior Center in Dolton. By 8:30 a.m., Orr said, 19 residents had cast ballots. While he said that’s a typical pace for that retirement village, its residents don’t have to venture outdoors to cast a ballot.
[Cook County elections spokeswoman Gail Siegel] says her office hasn’t received any complaints about a new feature on voting machines. For the first time, the machines reject incomplete ballots. That’s where someone fails to vote in one or more races for statewide office.
Election judges are asking voters if they intentionally left part of the ballot blank when the machine spots so-called “undervoting.” If not, they’ll be allowed to vote in those races. If so, the ballot will be approved.
*** UPDATE - 11:31 am *** For what it’s worth, the snow has stopped in Chicago, I’m told. Also, I hear one key Lakefront precinct reported just 6 votes this morning. Oof.
There were no crowds in Quincy polling places despite the close races.
“I’m not seeing any lines or crowds,” said Adams County Clerk Georgia Volm.
She visited one polling site at 7:30 a.m. where seven people had cast ballots. She was at a voting site on Sycamore at 8 a.m. and found that only seven voters had been there.
*** UPDATE - 12:10 pm *** Some of my recent “retweets“…
# Chicago_Reader RT @dansinker: sounds about right. RT @chitownpolitics: Setting over/under for turnout at 22%.
# ramsincanon If city turnout is as low as anecdotes would have you believe, @alexi4illinois could coast to 10+ point victory.
# johnfritchey I’ve been kissing hands and shaking babies all morning; not sure why people are reacting strangely. Oh. Damn. Never mind.
# dancurry Just voted for Jim Ryan, governor. Only person in polling place.
# rsamuels Mayor Daley votes at Old Saint Mary’s at 11. Alas, I shan’t be on hand for the Q&A. First time in years I’ve missed the mayoral vote.
# ramsincanon I’ve heard this from about a dozen ppl the last few days: “Quinn or Hynes? Seems like a coin toss.”
# PeoriaChronicle Only about 4 voters were at my polling place (which covers three precincts) this morning. Very low turnout.
# nbcchicago NBC’s live coverage of the primary elections begins at 4:30pm. Bookmark our livestream page: http://snipurl.com/u94c0
# BrianMcDaniel Turnout is quite low in the Collar Counties of Illinois.
# CollinCorbett Voter turnout is abysmal across the state, and it’s not just the snow. After the last 13 months what more motivation do IL voters need?!?
By midday, a look at precincts in Springfield and Champaign might prove instructive for Giannoulias and Hynes. If turnout is steady and strong south of Peoria, it’s most likely a soothing sign for the two, because both are more familiar to downstate voters.
A Hynes aide said recent polling has shown the comptroller surging into the lead over the governor in rural areas, but the aide cautions that “it has to translate into actual votes cast.”
Hoffman lacks strong name identification outside Chicago, and a potentially damaging story about Giannoulias’s role in his family’s bank has been bumped from leading the evening newscasts in favor of the racially charged gubernatorial primary. On the flip side, a big turnout on the North Shore and Lakefront would be beneficial to Hoffman.
The timing of this election makes enthusiasm even more difficult to measure.
“With how early the election is, it’s very difficult to gauge who’s going to vote and whether it’s going to line up with traditional votes,” said Jerry Morrison, political director of the Illinois Service Employees International Union.
* Not so sure of this yet, though. From CQ Politics…
Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, said he thought the undecided voters would break for the front-runners, Giannoulias and Kirk, because those are the more familiar names in the race.
Kirk, yes. Alexi? We’ll see.
* We already kinda know this. From the National Journal…
If Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes beats Gov. Pat Quinn in today’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, the political wires will once again be buzzing about the anti-incumbent and anti-establishment mood out there. […]
The mood is very anti-Washington and very anti-status quo. If you are a sitting governor, senator or House member, you already know this. That said, simplifying this as an anti-government backlash misses the point. It’s about competence. When voters are hurting they really don’t care to hear excuses from those who are in charge. They want results. And if you are someone who can sell that — whether you are a longtime legislator or a first-time candidate — you can get the ear of voters.
Looking for an overarching theme in the voting? How about the latest test of just how anti-incumbent/anti-establishment the voters are feeling. Gov. Pat Quinn is in serious trouble and, while his challenger — state Comptroller Dan Hynes — isn’t exactly an outsider, the defeat of a sitting governor in a primary race is a rarity. (The last governor to lose in a primary? Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski in 2006; he lost to a little known mayor named Sarah Palin.) The insider/outsider dynamic is even more clearly at work in the Democratic Senate primary where state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has lined up the support of much of the party establishment but has seen former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman making up ground with a law and order, outsider appeal — think Elliot Ness. In one ad, Hoffman paints Giannoulias as an insider’s insider — lumping the treasurer in with disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich and real estate developer Tony Rezko while touting himself as the only one who can bring real change to the state’s politics. Wins by Hynes and Hoffman today would rightly be interpreted as voters in Illinois sending the same message that the voters of Massachusetts did last month when Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R) scored an upset victory in the heavily Democratic Bay State.
The same message as Massachusetts? I’m not sure of that. We’ve had some pretty specific issues here that they didn’t have there.
Here at Manny’s legendary deli, where expansive pols have for decades stormed across the linoleum floor appealing for votes from the well-fed, Dan Hynes does not suit up as much of a dragon slayer.
Um, it’s supposed to be a newspaper report, not a bad novel.
* Worst column of the day goes to the New York Times’ Gail Collins. I don’t even want to excerpt it, it’s that bad.
Here’s one final observation about Illinois: The National Republican Senatorial Committee has to feel very fortunate about the timing of today’s primaries in the state. Why? Because had the primaries been next month (as had been normal pre-’08), we’re guessing that front-runner Giannoulias — who has political baggage — might no longer be the front-runner, especially if the story about his family’s bank continued to play for several more days. Make no mistake, the NRSC feels that Kirk would have an easier time in a general election against Giannoulias than, say, Hoffman. We’re also guessing that if the primary took place a month from now, Kirk — who voted for cap-and-trade and supports abortion rights — would be facing a stronger Tea Party challenge that he currently is. However, as we said above, it’s worth watching how close Hughes might get to Kirk tonight. This INCREDIBLY early primary (six weeks earlier than what WAS normal for Illinois) meant the campaign season didn’t kick off until after New Year’s, leaving underdog challengers just three weeks to gain traction.
The meme since the NY-23 kerfuffle has been that Republicans will face contested primaries in dozens of their races, and an emboldened tea party movement will give establishment candidates the boot and potentially hand easy wins to the Democrats.
The evidence had been adding up - with tea party candidates popping up in Pennsylvania and Texas and conservative groups targeting moderate Republicans in California and Florida.
But Kirk holds a steady lead in our TPMPolltracker average over two tea party-backed challengers Patrick Hughes and Judge Don Lowery despite all those efforts. Republicans in Washington expect him to emerge the nominee and shake off the tea party fears for the GOP nationwide.
“This blows a hole in that whole narrative,” said Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.
* Ben Smith of Politico tries to shoehorn his “outsider” theory into our primary…
The Illinois primaries today are set to test a thesis I’ve been thinking about, and on which I’d be interested in readers’ input: This wave of populist revulsion at the establishment, almost by definition, is far harder to bring to bear in primaries. […]
If Giannoulias, Kirk, and, say, McKenna win today (the insider-outsider dynamic is a bit muddied in the Democratic governor’s primary), it’ll suggest that partisan primaries maintain a degree of insulation from the free-floating anger — which may not actually be good for the parties’ general election candidates. And if they’re upset, it’ll suggest the reverse.
Except, McKenna is running as an outsider and Kirk is a shoe-in.
The biggest and longest-term maturity in the transaction was $520 million of 6.63 percent securities due in February 2035, priced at 205 basis points, or 2.05 percentage points, more than benchmark 30-year Treasuries.
* Money woes could threaten high-speed rail’s future
The $8 billion in stimulus cash awarded to 13 high-speed rail corridors across the country may seem like a windfall for advocates, but there’s a catch: The money isn’t enough to finish any of the major projects.
* Illinois may get new regulations for debt settlement companies
[Lisa] Madigan recently forwarded legislation in the state that would forbid debt settlement companies from charging certain fees, including those charged to consumers monthly. Companies would also have to get a license from the state’s Department of Financial and Professional Regulation.
The historically large budget includes about $270 million for the prison, which is slated to host terrorists moved from Guantanamo Bay prison when it is closed.
That’s nearly double the amount that Governor Pat Quinn sought for the penitentiary, $100 to $145 million.
Carothers’ father and political mentor, former Ald. William Carothers (28th), went to prison in 1983 for extorting up to $32,500 in remodeling work for his ward office from the builders of Bethany Hospital. The son’s crimes were strikingly similar.
Last week, the city asked the FAA for more time to complete the deal, a request the FAA has granted, according to a spokesman for the city Finance Department. The city had a Monday deadline to file the notice to comply with an FAA pilot program that allows up to five U.S. airports to be privatized, including one major hub, and Chicago wants to keep first dibs on that designation.
Shortly after taking office in 1989, Daley turned towing over to Environmental Auto Removal, a newly-formed company whose owners had close ties to former State Sen. Jeremiah Joyce (D-Chicago), one of the mayor’s closest friends in politics.
Total enrollment stands at 19,134, which includes 16,950 students on campus and 2,184 off-campus. The off-campus enrollment reflects a 21-student increase compared to a year ago.
While most towns in this area already have negotiated settlements with CN, Will County, New Lenox and seven others are still fighting to get the railroad to address their environmental concerns.
Just last month, Plainfield dropped out in exchange for local upgrades, including a system to alert emergency workers about blocked crossings and easements for an overpass at 143rd Street.
The City Council authorized a $14.1 million funding agreement with the Illinois Department of Transportation on Monday that will allow the city to begin property acquisition necessary to start the West Main project.
Galesburg was awarded $33.5 million through the state’s capital infrastructure program last summer to build grade separations — overpasses or underpasses — at West Main, East Main and North Seminary streets.
The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees has been attempting to negotiate a new contract with the city for more than a year but those talks have reached an impasse over the union’s demand that it have a guaranteed work week.
