Rauner to amend disclosure reports
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bruce Rauner’s campaign has agreed to refile its quarterly disclosure reports. As we’ve discussed before, Rauner has not been disclosing his individual staff members and salaries, but the Board of Elections has asked him to do so. From his press secretary…
We have filed our campaign finance disclosure reports in the same manner for four quarters, and the State Board has accepted those filings without issue. We are confident that we have complied with the Campaign Finance Act.
That said, the Board has now requested that we break out the salaries. We are honoring that request. We have no problem providing further detail regarding our expenditures, and we will provide that detail shortly.
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Your medical pot or your gun
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I really don’t like this idea…
Patients who want to qualify for medical marijuana in Illinois would have to be fingerprinted for a background check and pay $150 a year — and give up their right to own a gun, state officials proposed Tuesday. […]
One new proposal states that a qualifying patient or caregiver may not possess a firearm, even if they have a state firearm owner’s identification card or concealed carry permit, and violators may be subject to sanctions by state police.
* I mean, I see the reason why, but I still don’t like it…
Todd Vandermyde, lobbyist for the National Rifle Association, said the NRA takes no position on the issue but that the rule seems to be an attempt to interpret federal law. A U.S. Department of Justice firearm application form asks if the buyer is “an unlawful user” of marijuana or other controlled substances.
Illinois regulations make clear that pot possession is still prohibited by federal law, and the state denies liability for damages arising from the program, including federal prosecution.
Ugh.
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Three of the four Republican candidates talk about how they’ll deal with Speaker Madigan…
On Wednesday, Brady, Dillard and Rutherford each said they had demonstrated their ability to work with Madigan and Democrats in the past without surrendering their principles.. “I know it might be a populist thing in the Republican primary to not admit that,” [Rutherford] said. “But the fact is they are the speaker and the president, you should be able to have a Sunday afternoon conversation, perhaps even have a meeting in one of the two’s offices.”
Dillard, of Hinsdale, said he sometimes gets criticized “in a Republican primary because I have worked across the aisle with Democrats to successfully move things along.”
He cited his work as chief of staff in the first year of GOP Gov. Jim Edgar’s administration in working with Madigan while keeping lawmakers in extended session and “the state didn’t come to a grinding halt.” Dillard, who also appeared in an early presidential campaign TV ad for then-Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, said his background showed he had the “bipartisan chops” to work with a “Chicago-led legislature successfully.”
Brady, the unsuccessful 2010 GOP nominee from Bloomington, repeatedly cited his lone support among the four contenders for a new state law aimed at eliminating the state’s $100 billion unfunded public worker pension liability over the next 30 years. Brady served on a special legislative panel that designed the law.
“I’m the only Republican candidate for governor who actually worked with the Democrats, convinced them that we needed meaningful pension reform,” Brady said. “That’s the kind of governor we need — someone who’s willing to take bold positions to work with the Democrats and make sure we pass them.”
* The Question: Regardless of the candidate you support, which of the four Republicans do you think would work most effectively with Speaker Madigan? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
surveys
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Swinging at straw men
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Transylvania University…
It’s called hitting the ground running. “When I graduated in May, I never expected to be in national media by November,” said Transylvania University economics and international affairs grad Lyman Stone ‘13.
It’s been that kind of year for Stone, now working as an economist at the Center for State Tax Policy, an arm of the Tax Foundation in Washington, D.C., as he pursues a master’s degree in international trade and investment policy at George Washington University.
A photo posted next to the story has Stone smiling…
* So, why is a profile of a recent out-of-state undergrad relevant here?
Stay with me.
From a January 15th press release…
Illinois state Reps. David McSweeney, Ron Sandack, Ed Sullivan, Darlene Senger, Tom Morrison, Patti Bellock and Jeanne Ives, and State Sen. Michael Connelly will join other legislators on Wednesday at a press conference to express their concerns with the proposed progressive income tax in Illinois. A new report from the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has found that proposed changes would negatively impact the state’s ranking on the State Business Tax Climate Index. Illinois would be demoted from the 31st best climate in the country to 44thoverall, and its individual income tax rank would drop from 11th place to 33rd if it adopted the proposed progressive tax plan. The study also notes that the progressive income tax would affect many Illinois small businesses that pay taxes through individual income tax code.
The Tax Foundation’s Joseph Henchman, vice president of state & legal projects, and Lyman Stone, economist, will lead the press conference with a discussion of their findings. [Emphasis added.’
Um, the guy just got a Bachelors degree last year and he’s touted as an economist?
I thought you needed a “piled high and deep” for that designation.
* Americans for Prosperity rushed to point out the new study by the “economist”…
Recently, Lyman Stone, economist with the non-partisan Tax Foundation and Joseph Henchman, the organization’s Vice President of State Operations joined with Illinois lawmakers for a downtown Chicago press conference. There, the Tax Foundation unveiled the sobering findings of a recent study which shows the potential impact of the proposed progressive income tax.
* And the Illinois Policy Institute pounced immediately…
The Tax Foundation released an analysis of the proposal to dump Illinois’ fair, flat tax in favor of a progressive tax that would force people to pay higher taxes as their income increases. The conclusion was unsurprising: a progressive income tax would deliver a devastating blow to Illinois’ already struggling business climate.
The Tax Foundation ranks states based more than 100 different variables that fit into five broad categories: major business taxes, individual income tax, sales tax, unemployment insurance and property tax. The index ranks the general competitiveness of state tax systems – with 1st being the most competitive and 50th being the least competitive state tax system. A state with a ranking of No. 1 is considered the most competitive economically.
* To the study…
Illinois’ State Business Tax Climate Index score could fall to 44th, from 31st currently, if the proposed progressive income taxes are passed, which indicates a tax climate less supportive of economic growth […]
With the 2011 tax increases scheduled to sunset in part, and with the state budget still not structurally balanced, some policymakers may consider doubling down on bad tax policy. One proposal that has emerged in recent months is to consider a graduated, or progressive, income tax that would impose many additional rates on individual income.
For example, (HJRCA0033) would amend the state constitution to allow a progressive income tax.6 The plan includes seven tax brackets and a top rate of 9 percent, raising taxes on all income over $18,000.
* The citation the economist author uses is a link to the proposal itself. The full and complete actual language…
There may be one tax on the income of individuals and corporations. This may be a fair tax where lower rates apply to lower income levels and higher rates apply to higher income levels. No government other than the State may impose a tax on or measured by income.
Yes, some rates have been discussed in the media, but the legislative proposal itself makes no mention of them. So picking essentially random tax rates and plugging them into a tax climate score just doesn’t do it for me.
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Grotesque ISRA paranoia has not yet subsided
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From an Illinois State Rifle Association press release…
URGENT ALERT - YOUR ACTION REQUIRED
ANTIGUNNERS TO HOLD PUBLIC MEETINGS ATTACKING CONCEALED CARRY
YOU MUST ATTEND TO SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT
Gun-grabbing State Representative Laura Fine will be holding a so-called “Public Meeting” on Wednesday, January 22, 2014 in Glenview, Illinois. Joining Fine in organizing the meeting is the extremely anti-gun Cook County State’s Attorneys Office along with the state’s most radical gun control organization, The Illinois Council Against Handgun Violence (ICHV).
Fine claims that this meeting is for the purpose of answering questions the public might have about concealed carry. In reality, the organizers plan to use the meeting to frighten the public and spread lies about the impact of concealed carry on public safety. Fine and the other organizers plan to use this meeting as a recruiting session for ICHV and as a platform to launch efforts to REPEAL CONCEALED CARRY during the 2014 legislative session coming up this spring.
DON’T BE FOOLED - Rep. Fine, the ICHV and the Cook County State’s Attorneys Office want to strip you of your right of self defense, and then come take your guns away.
ARE YOU GOING TO STAND BY AND LET THE GUN GRABBERS TAKE WHAT IS RIGHTFULLY YOURS?
Of course not. That is why you must stand up now and defend your rights! That is why we must flood Fine’s “Public Meeting” with solid supporters of the 2nd Amendment!
3 THINGS YOU MUST DO TO HELP PROTECT THE FUTURE OF CONCEALED CARRY AND PRESERVE ALL YOUR GUN RIGHTS
1. Attend Rep. Fine’s “Public Meeting” on concealed carry. The meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, January 22, 2014, 7:00 PM, Glenview Police Station, 2500 East Lake Street, Glenview. Please plan on being there at 6:15 to make sure that you get a seat. In the past, the gun grabbers have been known to close the doors early to stifle pro-gun voices. Be sure to wear NRA or IGold hats and t-shirts to the event. If you see the media there, approach them and tell them that you are a law-abiding firearm owner and that you strongly support concealed carry and the right to keep and bear arms. The gun controllers on the panel will surely attack the Second Amendment and your right to keep and bear arms. It is very important that you vigorously defend your rights and enthusiastically support your fellow gun owners when they speak out in defense of our Constitutional rights.
2. Pass this alert on to all your friends and family members…tell them to show up at the meeting as well.
3. Post this alert to any and all Internet bulletin boards or blogs to which you subscribe.
* Rep. Fine canceled the meeting…
“The meeting was a question-and-answer session, not a debate on the concealed carry bill,” said Fine, of Glenview.
“Elected officials around the state have been holding these meetings, more so for chambers of commerce because business people want to know how to abide by the law if someone walks into their place with a gun.”
Jim Patterson, Glenview village president, said he read the Illinois State Rifle Association’s posting.
“The wording is strong and by design wanting a conflict. The meeting’s intention was question and answer, not turning it into a debate and setting the stage for conflict,” Patterson said.
He also said the police community room’s capacity limit could be exceeded, and he asked Fine to reschedule the meeting.
Sheesh.
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Sullivan may be right
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Illinois Radio Network…
If Illinois lawmakers want to extend the income tax increase beyond this year, their decision probably will come late.
This is the assessment of State Rep. Ed Sullivan (R-Mundelein):
“I don’t know that Speaker Madigan would like to put that out before an election, so this is all being driven by the election. If by some chance his candidate, Gov. Quinn, would lose, I think he (Madigan) would rather put that on the Republicans to figure that out,” he said.
If Gov. Quinn loses there will be huge pressure by many liberals in and out of the General Assembly to extend the tax hike indefinitely. But Sullivan has a pretty good handle on how Madigan usually thinks. MJM could very well just announce that the people have spoken and then toss this hot potato to whomever wins and maybe offer to work with him if and/or when he winds up in over his head - as long as he brings Republican votes to the table.
Your thoughts?
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The great divide
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Daily Herald looks at the vast disparity in suburban school property taxes…
The gap between the top and bottom suburban districts is vast. On one end of the spectrum is Rondout Elementary District 72 in Lake Forest, which will collect $30,381 in property taxes per student this year. On the opposite end is East Aurora Unit District 131, which has a property tax collection level of $2,816 per student, according to district budget documents submitted to the state.
“The main reason for the huge differences has to do with property tax wealth,” said Larry Joseph, director of fiscal policy at Chicago-based Voices for Illinois Children. “The heavy reliance on property taxes to fund schools combined with the weak support from the state just makes for very large fiscal disparities.”
Discuss.
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Rate the Frerichs intro video
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m not sure why he’s doing it now, but after months of actively campaigning for office Sen. Michael Frerichs is “officially” kicking off his state treasurer campaign today with stops in Chicago, Rock Island, Peoria and Champaign…
“Over the past year I’ve visited almost every county in Illinois and have talked to thousands of business owners, farmers, students, and regular citizens who told me that they want a qualified, ethical, and proven reformer to be our next Treasurer. As a former County Auditor and current Certified Public Finance Officer, I offer my record of fighting waste and corruption in state government to the voters of this state and ask that they join me as we work to take back the Treasurer’s office for middle class families,” Frerichs said.
“The Treasurer’s office works on issues that are bedrocks to a thriving economy and stable middle class: college savings, infrastructure investment, support for small businesses, low-interest loans to our farmers, and directing how to invest the state’s $16 billion in pension funds. I pledge to bring accountability, transparency and competency to Illinois’ finances, and to put state investments to work to help build out the middle class,” Frerichs continued.
* Tom Cross welcomed him to the race…
llinois State Representative and candidate for Illinois State Treasurer Tom Cross today released the following statement in response to Democrat State Senator Mike Frerichs’ announcing his campaign for Treasurer.
“The tax and spend policies of Senator Mike Frerichs have made the situation in Illinois go from bad to worse. The unbalanced budgets, reckless spending and record-setting tax increases that Frerichs has been a part of have left our state struggling to meet our most important priorities, including funding our children’s education and ensuring the safety of our communities. The simple truth is Mike Frerichs cannot be part of the solution because he is a big part of the problem. It’s time for a turnaround and that begins with real reforms that honestly balance our budget and crack down on fraud and corruption. I’m ready to get to work for the people of Illinois and fix the failed Frerichs policies.”
* Rate Frerichs’ intro video…
*** UPDATE *** Sun-Times…
If you’re a campaign tracker for the opposition, don’t try to get into a Mike Frerichs press conference.
The Democrat was announcing his candidacy for State Treasurer this morning in Chicago when a campaign worker for the Tom Cross for Treasurer team showed up. (Cross is running in the Republican primary for the office).
The red-faced, snow-laden worker pamphleted from the sidewalk after he was kicked out.
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Things that make you go “Hmm…”
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a June 18, 2003 Koch Pipeline Company press release…
Koch Pipeline Company, L.P. (“Koch Pipeline”) announced today it will conduct Phase I of an open season for the Dakota Express Pipeline, a proposed pipeline to transport Bakken crude oil from western North Dakota to Hartford, Illinois and Patoka, Illinois. Koch Pipeline also intends to explore a connection at Patoka, Illinois, to the Eastern Gulf Crude Access Pipeline, which would be capable of delivering Bakken crude oil to eastern U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Dakota Express Pipeline would begin service in 2016 with an expected initial capacity of approximately 250,000 barrels per day.
This project presents an opportunity for Koch Pipeline to meet the growing transportation needs required to support increased crude oil production in the Williston Basin. Koch Pipeline’s system is anticipated to provide a low-cost solution for shippers to access important crude oil demand centers.
* From a January 13th story in Progress Illinois…
Gov. Pat Quinn announced the state’s plans to push for emergency administrative rules for the management of petroleum coke, or petcoke, a thick, powdery byproduct of oil refining that can pollute the air and water.
“We want to make sure that every neighborhood in the state of Illinois is protected from the hazard of petroleum coke,” Quinn said at a press conference Monday afternoon. […]
Quinn delivered the announcement from the outskirts of KCBX Terminals’ 90-acre property, at 3259 E. 100th St., on the Southeast Side of Chicago. The company, controlled by the conservative billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, temporarily stores petcoke along the Calumet River for a nearby BP refinery in Whiting, Ind. […]
“This particular neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago has been hampered and hurt by this fugitive dust,” Quinn said. “It’s blown off of these mountains of petcoke, into the homes of good people who are trying to raise their children and make sure they’re healthy.”
* From a press release issued early this morning…
Ahead of Thursday’s “emergency action” being considered by Illinois Pollution Control Board against the storage and handling of petroleum coke, coal, and related bulk materials across the entire state, coalitions of job creators are refuting this potential action as detrimental to industries across Illinois affecting thousands of jobs and our state’s struggling economy. This action is being encouraged by Governor Quinn five months after an isolated incident where non-toxic petroleum coke dust blew over portions of the southeast side of Chicago during a windstorm; adding to the lack of rationale, the operator of that Chicago facility has since rectified the problem. The “emergency” being referenced is about politics, not good government.
WHO: Mark Denzler, Illinois Manufacturers’ Association
Tom Wolf, Illinois Chamber of Commerce
Mark Biel, Chemical Industry Council of Illinois
Jim Watson, Illinois Petroleum Council
Phil Gonet, Illinois Coal Association
WHAT: Media availability (via conference call)
WHEN: Wednesday, January 22
9:30 a.m.
* From a Bloomberg story this morning…
Koch Pipeline Co. called off plans to build a 250,000-barrel-a-day crude line to Illinois from North Dakota’s Bakken formation, where a shale boom has helped lift domestic production to the highest in a quarter-century.
Quinn singled out the Metro East region as a petcoke problem area in his remarks to reporters the other day.
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Today’s Raunerpalooza
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the “No Rauner” blog yesterday…
Tonight was supposed to be a live GOP debate on WGN TV and WGN Radio, 720 AM. But, again, Rauner chickened out. Bruce Dold, the editorial board editor of the Chicago Tribune, did an interview with Steve Cochran of WGN Radio today about the forum that was cancelled because of Rauner’s refusal to attend.
Dold likened Rauner’s skipping of key forums to the same behavior of another rich guy with lots of Chicago Democrat connections, Andy McKenna, from 2010. Dold said McKenna controlled the TV airwaves, like Rauner, but fell short of winning the nomination (he was third- behind Brady and Dillard).
The audio is here.
Not mentioned above is that Dold’s Tribune editorial board endorsed McKenna in 2010 and has been obviously leaning toward Rauner this time around.
* Meanwhile, after our post last Friday about how both Bruce Rauner and Michael Frerichs were not reporting the salaries of individual staffers, Frerichs filed an amended D-2 later the same day with staff names and payments to them.
No amendment has yet been filed by Rauner.
* And this is from Diane Ravitch’s blog…
I had a personal encounter with Bruce Rauner. Two years ago, I received the Kohl Education Award from Dolores Kohl, the woman who created it, a great philanthropist who cares deeply about the forgotten children and annually honors outstanding teachers. After the awards ceremony, Ms. Kohl held a small dinner at the exclusive Chicago Club. There were two tables, 8 people at each table. I sat across from Bruce and of course, we got into a lively discussion about charter schools, a subject on which he is passionate.
As might be expected, he celebrated their high test scores, and I responded that they get those scores by excluding students with serious disabilities and English language learners, as well as pushing out those whose scores are not good enough. Surprisingly, he didn’t disagree. His reaction: so what? “They are not my problem. Charters exist to save those few who can be saved, not to serve all kinds of kids.”
My response: What should our society do about the kids your charters don’t want? His response: I don’t know and I don’t care. They are not my problem.
This was not a taped conversation. I am paraphrasing. But the gist and the meaning are accurate.
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Cross voted for it before he was against it
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Nina Totenburg reports on yesterday’s US Supreme Court hearing…
At issue: whether nonunion members can be required to pay fees to help cover the cost of negotiating a contract from which they benefit.
In Illinois 10 years ago, 28,000 home health workers who care for adults with disabilities approved a union. Since then, hourly wages have nearly doubled, the workers now receive regular training, and they have health insurance. The state says as a result, the workforce has been stabilized and professionalized, and the government has saved money by keeping adults with disabilities in their homes.
Some workers, however, object to paying what is known as “fair share” fees. That is, even though they haven’t joined the union, they are required to pay their fair share of the costs of negotiating and administering a union contract they benefit from. The Supreme Court has long allowed such fees to prevent nonmembers from free-riding on union members’ dues. But in recent years, some of the court’s conservatives have suggested they may be prepared to reverse this long-established principle. And Tuesday’s case presents that opportunity.
The state says it actually has saved $632 million by creating a stable workforce to care for adults with disabilities in their homes instead of nursing homes.
One of the questions before the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday is whether non-union members must pay for negotiating a contract they benefit from. […]
And the workers and their patients say the union has transformed a program that previously had been hobbled by rapid turnover.
“I have a son that has cerebral palsy,” said Flora Johnson, a home care worker who serves on the union’s executive committee. “They tried to get me to institutionalize him years ago. But by the union coming in, he got a chance to stay home with his family.”
* LA Times…
In its lawsuit, the right-to-work attorneys portrayed the arrangement as a questionable deal between state Democrats led by former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and union officials. Alito picked up on the theme.
“Gov. Blagojevich got a huge campaign contribution from the union and, virtually as soon as he got into office, he took out his pen and signed an executive order that had the effect of putting $3.6 million in the union coffers,” Alito told U.S. Solicitor Gen. Donald Verrilli Jr., who joined in defending Illinois. The judge was referring to the $3.6 million in dues paid to SEIU after home-care providers were organized.
Verrilli denied that partisan politics were at play, noting that a “large bipartisan majority” of the Illinois Legislature voted in favor of the decision to extend union bargaining rights to the home-care providers.
The measure passed 51-2-5 in the Senate (Barack Obama voted “Present,” Dan Rutherford voted “No” and Kirk Dillard voted “Yes”) and 115-0 in the House.
* But Gov. Quinn expanded the scope of that legislation with an executive order in 2009.
In 2009, Governor Pat Quinn issued an executive order directing the State to recognize an exclusive representative for the Disabilities Program personal assistants, if a majority so chose. In a mail ballot election, however, a majority of the approximately 4,500 Disabilities Program personal assistants rejected representation by any union. Nevertheless, a union can request new elections in the future, and, under Illinois labor law, may bypass an election altogether if it collects a sufficient number of union cards from the personal assistants.
In 2010, personal assistants from both groups filed a two-count complaint against the Governor and the three unions involved. The Rehabilitation Program plaintiffs claimed that the fair share fees they were required to pay violated the First Amendment by compelling their association with, and speech through, the union. The Disabilities Program plaintiffs argued that although they did not yet pay fees, they are harmed by the threat of an agreement requiring fair share fees. The district court dismissed the Rehabilitation Program plaintiffs’ claims for failure to state a claim upon which relief could be granted. It dismissed the Disabilities Program plaintiffs’ claims for lack of subject matter jurisdiction because they lacked standing and their claims were not ripe.
The Seventh Circuit Decision
Writing for a unanimous panel, Judge Manion held that, with respect to the Rehabilitation Program plaintiffs, the fair-share fees withstand First Amendment scrutiny, in that they are, for First Amendment purposes, identical to the fees upheld by the Supreme Court in Abood v. Detroit Bd. of Educ.
Note that personal assistants from both groups of personal assistants have filed suit. Why is that important? Well, let’s revisit Tom Cross’ press release from yesterday…
“I believe forcing Illinois home-care workers to join a union and pay labor dues against their will violates both their right to free association and freedom of speech. For too long, the leadership in Illinois has focused on rewarding special interests as opposed to making common sense decisions that are fiscally prudent and defend core individual rights. It is not the job of state government to pick winners and losers, in this case seeking to bolster falling union membership; instead, elected leaders must put the common good before all else. My hope is the Supreme Court hears the arguments in this case and comes to the conclusion that Illinois’ actions are unconstitutional and cannot be allowed to stand.”
From the bill Rep. Cross voted for in 2003…
Provides that a labor organization recognized by Executive Order to represent personal care attendants or personal assistants shall be the exclusive representative of those individuals.
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It’s just a bill (Part 42,967)
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Buzzfeed…
A Republican state senator in Illinois introduced legislation Tuesday to repeal the state’s new marriage equality law, which takes effect this June.
But with a Senate and House controlled by Democrats — who just voted in favor of marriage equality in November — and a governor who pressed for equal marriage rights in the state, advocates say Sen. Kyle McCarter is simply playing to his base of conservative Republicans.
McCarter introduced Senate Bill 2637 to repeal the Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act, which passed last fall, and amend the state’s marriage statute to redefine marriage as between one man and one woman. […]
“This is just politics,” said Anthony Martinez, executive director of The Civil Rights Agenda, an LGBT rights group. “It’s an election year in Illinois and whenever that happens there’s always legislators who introduce legislation that will really go nowhere, but appeals to their base and I think that’s exactly what he’s done here.”
McCarter is McCarter. None of his Senate bills passed the Senate last year. That one ain’t gonna pass, either.
Personally, I really like the guy. I mean it. He’s a whole lot different back in the district than he is in Springfield. He listens, is considerate and can even be humble - qualities he doesn’t often display at the Statehouse, which is too bad, if you ask me.
* Along the same vein, the Champaign News-Gazette recently profiled a bed-and-breakfast near Paxton which is doing banner business since it was hit with a civil rights complaint for refusing to host a civil union ceremony. The owner says the same ban will apply to gay marriages, and he wants some legal protection…
State Rep. Josh Harms, R-Watseka, is among the lawmakers pushing for a change.
Harms said he voted last year against the Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act because, among other reasons, “businesses will be forced to host, cater or otherwise serve gay weddings, even if their religion forbids it.”
Harms said he had planned to draft legislation to protect “the rights of those individuals and businesses that have religious objections to gay weddings,” but he has since narrowed the focus of the proposed legislation. Harms said he now is working to draft a bill that would expand the law to “protect all entities controlled by the church” — specifically, private schools affiliated with churches. […]
“I think (the legislation protecting business owners) will be a hard sell,” Harms noted. “I’ve been talking to some other reps about carrying the other one that will give a personal objection exemption (to business owners). But I think it will be very hard to get through (into law).”
When even Josh Harms won’t touch the issue, you know it’s radioactive.
* Sen. Jason Barickman, who voted for gay marriage, says he might consider supporting Harms’ legislation tightening up language on religious institutions, but the private business stuff will not get his backing…
“As far as the bed-and-breakfast goes, their ability to turn away same-sex couples is prohibited by the Human Rights Act,” Barickman said. “They are unable to say ‘no’ to a same-sex couple not because of the same-sex marriage law that just passed, but because of the anti-discrimination law that passed long before Rep. Harms and myself were in the legislature.”
Exactly right.
* Also from the News-Gazette story…
The TimberCreek website lists Walder’s position against same-sex marriages and civil unions.
“If you go to http://www.timbercreekbb.com/history, towards the bottom of the page you will find what I believe and how I look at the issue. It is posted there for the world to see,” Walder said.
* From the bottom of the business’ “history” page…
America was built upon a foundation of religious liberty and Judeo Christian principles. This heritage is engraved in federal buildings all over our Nation’s Capitol. It is printed on our money. It is enshrined in the United States Constitution which guarantees the freedom of religious expression. But now it is under assault by well-funded homosexual activists who demand we surrender religious liberty to their new definition of marriage. President Obama has been deceived into embracing this far-left agenda. Even IL Governor Quinn is marching down this same path of perversion. As Christians, we should absolutely love individuals ensnared in homosexuality, but we should not and cannot condone any part of it because the Bible condemns it. The Creator of the Universe is no one to defy.
Homosexuality is a behavioral choice which has been historically viewed as immoral, sinful, and an abomination to God in Judeo Christian belief for over 6,000 years. This lifestyle can be adopted and abandoned. Yet it is being championed as equal to immutable human characteristics such as race, color, gender, creed, age, and national origin. It uses anti-discrimination laws as a bully club when dissenting Americans disagree with men trying to marry men, women marrying women, men changing to women, and women changing to men. It basically says that God is confused by marriage, family, and sexuality and that we need to correct his mistakes.
We politely disagree. God is not confused. His Word clearly illustrates and declares that marriage is between one man and one woman. It also labels homosexuality as an abominable sin throughout the Old and New Testaments. God’s Word is the ultimate authority, infallible, and unchanging. It is the same yesterday, today, and forever. His Word cannot be changed by a vote of the Illinois General Assembly when it passed the Civil Unions Act or the Gay Marriage Bill. Marriage is only appropriate God’s way. Sexuality is only appropriate God’s way.
Consequently, we cannot host civil unions or gay marriages at TimberCreek Bed & Breakfast. It is not an issue of fairness or equality, but an issue of right and wrong. We cannot be part of what God condemns. Be assured that we are not lawless, hateful, judgmental, bigoted, or activists by any definition. We did not initiate the present controversy. We are not the ones who voted to change the 6,000 year-old definition of marriage. We are just small business owners trying to be consistent in following God’s Word and living it out practically in our lives. And we are not alone.
Um, you call gay marriage a “path of perversion,” an “abomination” and a “bully club” against dissenters and then you say you “politely disagree” with its backers?
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Today’s numbers are lousy
Wednesday, Jan 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Pew Charitable Trusts has a new interactive analysis of state fiscal health and, of course, Illinois isn’t doing well at all. From an e-mail…
Rich,
Just in time for the start of the Illinois legislative session next week, The Pew Charitable Trusts has launched a new interactive featuring 50-state data on key fiscal, economic, and demographic indicators. Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis also features insights and analysis from Pew experts in five core areas of fiscal health: revenue, spending, economy and people, long-term costs, and fiscal policy.
Fiscal 50 launched with six key indicators of state fiscal health, and will be updated with additional indicators, fresh analysis, and new data over time. Our first six indicators are: 1) tax revenue, 2) federal share of state revenue, 3) change in state spending over the past 20 years, 4) employment to population ratio, 5) debt and unfunded retirement costs, and 6) reserves and balances. These indicators were carefully selected to illustrate macro fiscal and economic trends that encourage policymakers to think outside of the annual budget bubble and focus on long-term fiscal issues.
The interactive offers state-by-state comparisons on each of these indicators, so you can quickly see which states are leading and which are lagging behind. The tool also allows you to compare state data to a national benchmark.
For example, in the “Reserves and balances” indicator, you can quickly see that, in fiscal year 2013, Illinois had sufficient reserve funds to operate for just 0.4 days, compared to a national average of 20 days. Of all of the states that report this figure, Illinois had the lowest amount of reserve funding.
Emphasis added for obvious reasons.
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These kids today…
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* WGN…
A disturbing trend the kids are trying: snorting Smarties.
Thousands of YouTube videos have showed up showing kids grinding up the candy, and snorting it.
They’re laughing and egging each other one some are even doing it right there in the classroom.
They don’t think it’s risky because it’s candy and not a drug.
But, kids are getting caught and suspended from school for doing it, and doctors warn of some pretty serious risks.
They say, snorting Smarties can lead to lung irritation, infection, and even worse nasal maggots.
What sort of goofballs would ever do such a thing?
* Well, many years ago when my family rented a house on a farm in Iroquois County, my parents raised chickens. For whatever reason (I suppose he didn’t have a truck at the time), my dad bought some corn for the chickens and hauled it in the back seat of his 1964 Ford Falcon.
A few kernels remained on the floor of the back seat and were still there when my parents took us all on a family trip to Springfield.
My younger brother Denny was always an odd duck and to this day I’m not sure why he did it, but he put one of those corn kernels up his nose. He then proudly informed everyone of his superb accomplishment.
Mom told him to try to blow it out, but instead of blowing, Denny breathed in through his nose. Like I said, he was an odd duck.
Large families (I have four brothers) cannot ever escape the crazy. Somebody always does something goofy. But the real insanity comes when everybody gets into the act.
Dad was yelling, Mom was doing her best to stay calm, and my other brothers and I were trying to “help” Denny by blowing air out through our own noses to show him how it was done. I’m sure it was a pretty darned hilarious site if you passed us on the highway.
Denny sucked that corn kernel all the way into his sinus cavity and we had to go to a Springfield hospital to have it removed with a very long pair of tweezers. Needless to say, our capital city tour didn’t get off to a great start. I don’t remember anything else about that trip except waiting forever in front of the hospital in a hot car.
* Anyway, the moral of this story, kids, is don’t put stuff up your nose that doesn’t belong there.
…Adding… WGN must be behind the times. I just found a “snorting smarties” video from six years ago.
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More fun with numbers
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sounds horrible, doesn’t it?…
As the number of complaints about the racket caused by jets using O’Hare Airport’s new runway soar, two Northwest Side aldermen want answers from airport officials about what can be done to turn down the volume.
From September — the last full month before the new east-west runway opened in October — to November, complaints to the city-run toll-free hotline rose 124 percent, according to data compiled by the O’Hare Noise Compatibility Commission.
Aldermen are furious and Congressman Quigley wants flights halted O’Hare’s “fly quiet program” to start at 9 o’clock every night.
* But…
The 4,763 complaints filed in November came from 395 people, with each complainant making an average of 12 calls to the hotline, Pride said.
I’m not sure that 395 people ought to control the destiny of one of the world’s most important airports, but that’s just me.
Also, about half of those calls came from the suburbs, so aldermen are all up in arms about two hundred people.
On the other hand, there are some pricey homes in Sauganash and some very connected residents.
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Rate the new Cross ad
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rep. Tom Cross is running a new radio ad in Springfield, Bloomington and Champaign. Rate it…
Skyrocketing debt, record high taxes, the nation’s worst budget deficit.
State government is a mess.
We need new leadership in Springfield.
Illinois voters are facing an important choice for state treasurer.
Tom Cross is running to stop the dishonest budget gimmicks and enforce the state’s balanced budget requirement.
Senator Mike Frerichs supported billions in budget hikes leaving Illinois citizens holding the bag.
Cross is a proven fiscal conservative who will establish a government integrity unit to protect state funds from corruption and fraud.
Frerichs and Governor Quinn raised taxes on families and employers by 67 percent – the most in Illinois history.
Cross has the skills and determination to be a vigilant fiscal watchdog and protect Illinois taxpayers.
For treasurer, the choice is clear.
Tom Cross will clean up the mess…
…fight the waste and corruption…
…and restore fiscal sanity.
Paid for by Cross for Treasurer.
* As if by magic, the Illinois Republican Party backs up Cross with a press release…
Mike Frerichs is launching his campaign for Illinois Treasurer this week. But the people of Illinois have some questions that Sen. Frerichs needs to answer:
1. “Since entering office in 2007, 364,000 fewer people are working in Illinois. In fact, even your own family members have moved their business out of Illinois due to the poor business climate. Do you still maintain that raising taxes on small businesses, like you have, is an effective job creation policy?”
2. “In 2011, you joined with Governor Quinn to raise income taxes by 67%. At the time, you said it would help pay past due bills. Illinois currently has over $7 billion in unpaid bills while at the same time being a regional leader in unemployment. Did your tax increase plan work?”
3. “Twice over the last few years you voted to raise your pay and that of the Governor and other constitutional officers. During this same period, the state was accruing billions in unpaid bills and struggling to maintain funding levels for education and human services. Why were pay raises for politicians made a priority in your spending plans?”
4. “In 2010, even Speaker Madigan conceded that the budget was not balanced, even though there is a state constitutional requirement to have a balanced budget. How do you justify supporting that unbalanced budget?”
5. “During the last fundraising quarter, greater than 50% of your contributions came from public- and private-sector unions and overall have contributed over $270,000 in 2013 alone to your treasurer campaign. How will you avoid conflicts of interest with taxpayers?”
Illinois Republican Party Executive Director Jayme Odom released the following statement:
“Democrat State Senator Mike Frerichs has been a consistent vote for higher taxes, budget-busting spending and job-crushing fees and regulations. Illinois needs a solution-driven Republican Treasurer ready to tackle the economic problems facing our state. Mike Frerichs won’t be part of the solution, because he is already a part of the problem.”
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Fun with numbers
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP…
Recent pension reform legislation has been hailed as historic and groundbreaking, but the $160 billion savings plan ultimately won’t make much of a dent in the state’s growing deficits, a report released Tuesday says.
While the changes to the state’s major public pension systems will eliminate their unfunded liability over the next 25 years, the state’s deficit will increase to $13 billion during that time, according to the University of Illinois’ Institute for Government and Public Affairs study.
Institute researchers had projected a $14 billion deficit - a $1 billion difference - if the state had not implemented pension reform.
“The deficit has gotten off the front burner,” Institute Director Chris Mooney said. “And the pension solution, while important, in terms of (its effect on) the budget, it’s a red herring.”
The study is here.
* The Institute is projecting a $1 billion deficit for this fiscal year that doesn’t actually exist. If that’s the case, then I really gotta wonder about the rest of their numbers.
And even using their possibly flawed numbers, the pension reform (if it survives the courts) will save Illinois on average about a billion dollars per year through 2025, using a “cash budget gap” formula. Annual savings are designed to go way up after that, however.
* Also, the Institute admits that a different projection formula, which accounts for the annual change in unfunded liability, is “arguably more meaningful.” Using that projection of the pension reform law’s impact, you get an average annual savings of $5.5 billion. That’s pretty darned substantial.
And using that “arguably more meaningful” formula, if both the tax hike and the pension reform law remain in place, the average annual budget gap over twelve years is about $800 million. That ain’t great, but it’s far more manageable than repeal of both laws, which gives us an average annual budget deficit of a whopping $10.5 billion. Using the cash budget gap formula, repeal of both the tax hike and pension reform laws would result in an average annual deficit of $8.2 billion.
* So, yeah, not all problems are solved, but they are a whole lot more manageable with a permanent tax hike and the new pension reform laws than without.
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In which I agree with Kirk Dillard
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* More from the Tribune’s coverage of yesterday’s WTTW GOP candidate forum…
A generation gap was on display. Asked by the teens what TV show or character inspired them, Brady cited “Bonanza,” which stopped airing first-run shows in 1973. Rutherford said “Sea Hunt,” which ran first-run episodes until 1961. Dillard kissed up to the hosts, listing Ch. 11’s “Chicago Tonight.”
Dillard’s response was his usual “tell your audience what they want to hear” goofiness, but I actually agree with him. I wanted to be on that show so badly when I was young. You knew you’d made it if you were on the show. I was a total devotee.
So after I started my company and the call finally came in the 1990s, I eagerly jumped at the chance. That was in the old days, when the sainted John Callaway was still hosting and the show had a big enough budget to fly me to Meigs Field and pick up my car fare to the studio.
When I moved to Chicago, Phil Ponce kept me coming back on the show as a semi-regular. I never got over the thrill of walking into that studio, even when I grew a bit tired of being used whenever they needed somebody to whack George Ryan. Whatever. I felt like I was near the center of the Chicago political universe.
* And I learned a lot of “tricks” along the way, mainly by forcing myself to watch my appearances over and over again. It wasn’t a pleasant experience at first, but I figured out some stuff that helped improve my future performances.
The first thing to keep in mind is that everything moves fast so you have to jump in whenever you possibly can or the show will be over before you know it. I was on the program during Dan Rutherford’s first ever appearance, and we went out to dinner in Korea Town afterwards where he marveled at how 20 minutes (or whatever it was) just flew by.
And, between us, here’s a little secret I told Rutherford back then: The director will almost always cut to a shot of you if you react to somebody else’s comment. So a shake of the head, a smirk, a little chuckle, a frown, a smile, or whatever seems appropriate can slyly undermine an opponent’s argument, and they won’t even know what hit them unless they watch the show later.
Heh.
* I used to need all that stuff. And I mean need it. At one point, the station put up a photo of myself and my buddy Carlos Hernandez Gomez in the main lobby and the two of us were beyond ecstatic. I eventually found myself becoming upset if I didn’t get the call to discuss a hot topic. I had totally bought in to the hype.
Eventually, I realized I shouldn’t let that effect me so much, and then I finally realized that I could leave Chicago and not worry about such things any more.
But, I gotta tell ya, sometimes I really miss walking into that studio.
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*** UPDATED x2 *** Two sides of union debate
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune editorial…
“I am not an employee of the state. I work from my home. I don’t want the union in my home. I can Norma Rae with the rest of them.”
That’s the sentiment of Pamela Harris, an Illinoisan who provides care for her disabled son, Joshua. He has a rare condition that causes cognitive and physical impairments. For this function, she and some 20,000 other personal assistants receive stipends from the state through Medicaid.
It’s a good program. The providers save the state money by allowing those in need to live in their own homes rather than public facilities, and participants get to choose those who provide their assistance — often family members.
Harris’ disagreement is with two governors, the General Assembly and the Service Employees International Union. In 2003, the legislature passed a law codifying a policy adopted by Rod Blagojevich classifying the caregivers providing rehabilitation services as state employees for purpose of union representation. They get it from SEIU-Healthcare Illinois & Indiana. Those who don’t want to join the union have to pay dues anyway.
* AFSCME’s Henry Bayer responds via e-mail…
You wouldn’t know it from today’s Tribune, but the named plaintiff in the suit, Pamela Harris, whose right to not pay dues they staunchly defend, doesn’t pay dues.
The caregivers who were granted collective bargaining rights by the Governor’s Executive Order voted against representation. Thus, Harris and all of the other caregivers covered by the Executive Order she contests, pay neither dues nor fees, a fact the Trib either doesn’t know or chooses to ignore. Is it ignorance or malice or both on the part of the editors?
They also ignore the fact that in the public sector employees who choose not to join the union are not required to do so. They pay a fee which excludes any costs associated with political or ideological expenditures and only requires them to pay for the services which the union is legally obligated to provide to them, which included, in the case of Illinois, hefty increases in their abysmally low wages and access to affordable health care.
Ms. Harris could take care of her child and not request or receive pay from the state. Then she would not be eligible for union representation. She could also hire someone to care for her child. She could pay those wages herself, and the individual providing those services would remain outside the purview of the Executive Order.
Finally, they fail to point out that caring for the disabled is a state responsibility
She has chosen to ask the state to pay for her services in the care for her loved one. She was not required by the law to do so, but has understandably exercised that right.
Why would she or the Trib think that she should have the right to receive a state paycheck for her services, but the state should have no right to declare her, or anyone else receiving a state paycheck, a state employee?
Her attitude of entitlement is one I thought the Tribune rejected.
Thoughts?
*** UPDATE *** From the Bruce Rauner campaign…
The United States Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today in Harris v. Quinn. In the case, Pam Harris is challenging Illinois’ requirements that home care providers are designated as government employees and forced to provide union dues even though they are hired by the individuals for whom they provide care. Moreover, Harris only provides care for her son.
“People like Pam Harris, who only wants to care for her own child, should not be forced to join and pay into government unions. Her case is a clear example of government union overreach and anyone who wants to be governor of Illinois should make clear where they stand on it,” said Bruce Rauner. “Pam Harris is dedicating her life to her child and she deserves the freedom to decide herself whether or not she joins a government union.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** From a press release…
Illinois State Representative and candidate for Illinois State Treasurer Tom Cross today released the following statement on the United States Supreme Court hearing oral arguments in Harris v. Quinn. The case focuses on challenging executive orders signed by Governors Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn that force Illinois home-care workers to join unions, some of which are spending member dues on political causes that are not necessarily supported by the organizations’ membership:
“I believe forcing Illinois home-care workers to join a union and pay labor dues against their will violates both their right to free association and freedom of speech. For too long, the leadership in Illinois has focused on rewarding special interests as opposed to making common sense decisions that are fiscally prudent and defend core individual rights. It is not the job of state government to pick winners and losers, in this case seeking to bolster falling union membership; instead, elected leaders must put the common good before all else. My hope is the Supreme Court hears the arguments in this case and comes to the conclusion that Illinois’ actions are unconstitutional and cannot be allowed to stand.”
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Wheels grinding slowly
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Judges in Cook County have begun revoking inmates’ sentences to boot camp and resentencing them instead to prison in response to a Chicago Sun-Times investigation that revealed hundreds of violent offenders were improperly sentenced to the program.
In November, the newspaper reported that violent criminals were being sent to boot camp, an alternative to prison with a focus on rehabilitation. Under Illinois law, judges are supposed to send only nonviolent criminals to the boot camp at the Cook County Jail.
In one case, a judge sentenced a convicted armed robber to the four-month boot-camp program rather than give him the sentence the law calls for — six to 30 years in prison without the possibility of parole. Less than two years after completing the program, the man was accused of killing a college student. […]
After the Sun-Times’ investigation was published, Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart wrote to the county’s judges, asking them to confirm that 56 inmates who’d been sentenced to boot camp — Chaney among them — had been properly sentenced. Those inmates were being held in jail, awaiting placement in the program.
Since then, 26 inmates have been confirmed as eligible for boot camp and admitted into what’s formally called the Vocational Rehabilitation Impact Center. Beside Chaney, judges also have revoked the boot-camp sentences of three other inmates and sent them to prison. The other cases are still pending, according to the sheriff’s office.
Sheriff Dart wrote that letter on December 10th. And in all that time they still have 26 cases still pending?
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Unclear on the concepts
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sen. Kirk Dillard unveiled a proposal yesterday to lower the state’s gasoline sales tax by 3 percentage points and then using the remaining 2 percent state sales tax to fund a $1 billion capital program for roads and bridges…
“This will save a typical family in Illinois nearly $200 a year while also putting people to work on road and bridge projects that are in dire need of repair,” Dillard said in a press release.
OK, first of all, in nominal dollars, Illinois’ gross state product was $644 billion in 2012. So, a $1 billion construction project represents just 0.16 percent of GSP. Not a lot of relative growth from something like that.
More importantly, though, the plan would cut state coffers by $550 million (including the $100 million taken out of circulation for capital projects). How would he cover that hole? By “growing the economy,” Dillard told reporters yesterday.
Sorry, but hope ain’t a plan.
* Then there were the contradictions…
“Illinois has two taxes on gas and I propose, using, getting rid of the second one — as I long have,” said Dillard, who noted the state also has a 19-cent per gallon tax on gasoline. […]
Dillard in the past has recommended shifting revenues from the sales tax on gasoline to replace the use of video poker money as a source for state bond-funded public works projects. On Monday, he said video poker was in Illinois to stay.
Dillard is finally getting closer scrutiny from the Chicago media, and it ain’t great. Natasha Korecki points out a few in her most recent column and ends it this way…
When the Sun-Times asked Dillard whether rumors were true that he was thinking about voting against the pension bill to keep the possibility open for union support, Dillard was adamant: “I always supported pension reform,” he said then. “I can’t imagine I wouldn’t be [in support].”
He then voted against it.
So taking it all into account is Dillard’s clout issue just “one story”?
Maybe.
But if he isn’t careful, doubts about his credibility may begin to look like a “perpetual pattern.”
* Not to mention that Dillard and two of the other three Republican candidates definitely want the state income tax to sunset on schedule, which blows a $3.6 billion hole in state revenues the first full year of implementation, according to the governor’s budget office.
With that in mind…
[Sen. Bill Brady], the only GOP candidate for governor who supported a new law in December curbing state employee pension increases aimed at closing the state’s $100 billion unfunded liability, also said the measure’s passage would mean the scheduled reduction in the state’s income tax rate should go on as scheduled in January 2015.
“It will save us at least $1 billion or $1.2 billion in the first year, which lets the income tax go away,” Brady said.
Only in Fantasyland is that even remotely true.
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“One of the worst accounting frauds ever”
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Tribune takes a long look at one of Bruce Rauner’s prized GTCR acquisitions, Lason, Inc…
A few months after praising its performance, Rauner resigned from its board of directors just as the company’s high-flying stock began to crater. Lason imploded amid allegations by investors and criminal investigators that top executives cooked the books to boost the company’s value.
Neither Rauner nor his partners at the venture firm GTCR were accused of any wrongdoing. The firm netted at least $32 million from its investment by selling almost all of its stock before the earnings scandal became public. However, records show, other investors and lenders lost about $285 million as a result of the systematic accounting fraud, and three top executives went to prison. […]
Prosecutors alleged that for most of that time — from approximately 1997 through early 2000 — Lason’s success was bolstered by bookkeeping sleight of hand. The maneuver, referred to around the office as “Tailwind,” was orchestrated primarily by William Rauwerdink, Lason’s executive vice president and chief financial officer.
Rauwerdink, who eventually became a company director as well, was hired by Rauner and fellow board members in 1996 just months after he was sanctioned and fined more than $200,000 by the SEC over insider trading allegations at his previous job. He neither admitted nor denied the allegations, Lason noted in an annual report to the SEC.
Messinger told federal investigators the Tailwind scheme counted on manipulating financial data from newly acquired companies to inflate Lason earnings, driving up the stock price while masking Lason’s real financial condition. But the scheme began to unravel as acquisitions slowed and it became difficult to meet Wall Street expectations with accounting tricks alone.
The solution of the Lason conspirators was to make up $13 million in anticipated revenues from work that wasn’t real, according to court records. To mislead investors and stock analysts, the false numbers were highlighted in a company press release distributed in late October 1999. The figures were also folded into an official report filed with the SEC on Nov. 15 that wrongly claimed operating income in the third quarter of 1999 had far exceeded the same period the year before. […]
[Peter J. Henning, an expert on securities fraud and white collar crime] said Lason might be recalled as “one of the worst accounting frauds ever” had it not been upstaged by similar scandals at much bigger companies — Enron and WorldCom. […]
Go read the whole thing.
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So far, so good
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
A solid week of horribly negative media coverage of Bruce Rauner was apparently outweighed by lots and lots of television ads because his numbers are still rising.
A new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll found that Rauner’s lead increased in the Republican gubernatorial primary since late November.
The poll of 1,139 likely Republican primary voters taken January 14th found Rauner getting 34 percent of the vote, with state Sen. Bill Brady at 17 percent, Treasurer Dan Rutherford at 15 percent and state Sen. Kirk Dillard bringing up the rear at 9 percent.
A We Ask America poll taken November 26th after Rauner launched his holiday season TV ad blitz showed Rauner leading with 26 percent, to Brady’s 18 percent, to Rutherford’s 17 percent to Dillard’s 10 percent. Those numbers confirmed a Public Policy Polling survey taken just days before, which had Rauner leading with 24 percent.
So, essentially, the rest of the pack hasn’t moved at all, while Rauner has added eight points to his lead. Last week’s poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
“Buoyed by a constant stream of quality TV ads, Mr. Rauner continues to gain ground,” said We Ask America pollster Greg Durham. “For now, it does not appear the negative press he’s recently received has resulted in producing any significant speed bumps. This race is far from settled, but the Rauner camp must feel like their plan is working.”
As you already know, twin scandals have buffeted Rauner’s campaign since the holiday season ended. He’s been hammered extensively for a December comment that surfaced in early January of Rauner demanding that the minimum wage be cut by a dollar an hour. Last week, the media focused on Rauner’s successful effort to clout his suburban daughter into a Chicago public school, followed by a $250,000 contribution to that school.
But “earned media” attacks don’t work like they used to, particularly in GOP primaries where a hardcore strand of voters tends to discount the “mainstream media.”
Most importantly, though, is that none of Rauner’s opponents have yet to run a single TV ad. Paid media, and in particular television, moves numbers. Period. End of story. And Rauner has had the TV all to himself.
Rauner’s massive TV spending is having a profound impact. Just 25 percent of GOP primary voters say they’re undecided. Rauner leads in almost every geographic region in the state, with his biggest numbers racked up in the vote rich collar counties. There, Rauner scores a whopping 44 percent. He’s also way ahead in suburban Cook County, with 37 percent. And he has 27 percent in Downstate, which puts him 8 points ahead of both Brady and Rutherford. Treasurer Rutherford leads in Chicago, according to the poll, but only by three points.
Speaking of Treasurer Rutherford, he reported raising about $400,000 in the fourth quarter last year and had just under $1.4 million in his campaign bank account.
When he puts that money on TV, Rutherford could take advantage of any effect that labor unions will have on the primary. If the upcoming multimillion dollar labor union-financed TV advertising blitz manages to disqualify Rauner in GOP voters’ minds, then Rutherford’s ads could convince those voters to head his way.
Right now, though, Republican primary voters are divided on whom they would choose if Rauner is taken out of the equation.
We asked Rauner supporters: “If information emerged that would cause you to withdraw your support for Bruce Rauner, for whom would you vote?”
According to the poll, 22 percent of former Rauner backers would choose Rutherford, 20 percent picked Brady and 16 percent backed Dillard. But 42 percent remained undecided.
Sen. Brady has raised just about zero cash in the last six months and Sen. Dillard’s campaign is barely staying afloat. So the poll and common sense indicate that Rutherford could be the most likely candidate to take advantage when the union money starts pouring in against Rauner.
But Rauner could then start attacking Rutherford, and anybody else who starts climbing in the polls. It’s gonna get complicated.
And that’s very important to remember. The poll shows what it shows on the day it was taken. But voters can only express a preference based on the information they currently have, and there will be a whole lot more info - mostly bad - coming very soon.
Those last two paragraphs are absolutely necessary to keep in mind as this thing moves forward. 2010 showed how volatile the Republican primary electorate can be, and that’s why I voted “No” last week on our question which asked whether anybody should drop out.
Carol Marin has an alternate take here.
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