A black mark on apparent success
Tuesday, Aug 27, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the AP…
After shutting down all early-out programs for three years, a revised, stricter plan was approved by Quinn and lawmakers last spring that overall appears to be less problematic. Records analyzed by the AP show that since March, more than 1,600 inmates have been let go up to six months early, and only 20 have been returned to prison for violating parole — just over 1 percent.
* But one of those early parolees may have committed a murder…
The suspect in the recent fatal shooting of a Decatur man was released from an Illinois prison five months early as part of a revamped out-for-good-behavior prisons program, according to records reviewed by The Associated Press.
Joshua A. Jones served 19 months of a four-year sentence for drug-dealing and left the state prison in Vandalia May 3. Jones is now in Macon County Jail charged with murder in the Aug. 17 shooting death of 22-year-old Marvin E. Perry in Decatur — three months before his original release date.
The case is a potential embarrassment for Gov. Pat Quinn and the Department of Corrections under the revamped early-release program, just three years after the governor struggled to win the 2010 election following a scandal involving the early release of more than 1,700 inmates within weeks or even days of arriving at prison. The AP reported at the time that they included hundreds of prisoners convicted of violent crimes or with violent histories.
* Background on Jones from the Decatur paper…
Jones has had three felony cases, including two involving firearms, in the past eight years.
He received his four-year sentence on Dec. 10, 2012, after pleading guilty to charges of dealing cocaine and heroin. In that case, he was arrested after police received a report of a man with a handgun near the intersection of Main and Hilton streets on Oct. 3, 2011. When officers arrived, Jones reportedly ran from them while holding a semiautomatic handgun. When he was booked into the jail, a bag was recovered from his rear end containing 18 crack cocaine rocks and 25 heroin rocks.
Felony charges of armed violence were dropped as part of a plea deal. With credit for time served awaiting trial and day-for-day prison credit for good behavior, Jones was released May 3.
In 2009, Jones was charged with felony aggravated unlawful use of a weapon for carrying a handgun in a vehicle. As part of a plea agreement, he received 18 months conditional discharge, a lighter form of probation, and his charge was reduced to a misdemeanor.
* How it went down…
Perry was shot to death about 9:30 p.m. Aug. 15 in the 1200 block of North Union Street, as he stood near his girlfriend’s home. There were many people in the vicinity at the time, including some who were involved in a verbal altercation. The victim was apparently briefly engaged in the argument before he was fatally shot in the chest.
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Fahner blasts Poe
Tuesday, Aug 27, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Civic Committee’s Ty Fahner has come out from under a rock to blast the possible election of Rep. Raymond Poe as House GOP Leader…
“Poe’s selection as leader would be another reason why employers large and small would think it prudent for those companies and shareholders to look for a less hostile business climate,” said Mr. Fahner, noting that Mr. Poe favors only the relatively modest plan that was bargained with state unions by Senate President John Cullerton, rather than the much deeper cuts that Mr. Cross has supported.
Then came the knife. “Any member who supports Poe can expect little or no financial support (from business) going forward given the critical need for meaningful pension reform and Poe’s public opposition to it.”
Subtle. As is another comment from Mr. Fahner: “Poe has taken a very substantial amount of money from all of the public employee unions. . . .I guess his leadership would not be overly concerned with the interests of the roughly 95 percent of the people in Illinois who are not public employees.”
Discuss.
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Pat Brady to lobby for gay marriage
Tuesday, Aug 27, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From WBEZ…
The American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois has hired former state Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady to lobby for a same-sex marriage bill in Springfield, months after his own support of gay marriage sparked a controversy that led to his resignation.
The ACLU confirmed Tuesday that it has hired Next Generation Public Affairs, the lobbying and public relations firm Brady co-founded after he left his party job in May.
“I think the very core of the conservative movement, which I consider myself a part of, is application of equality under the law for all,” Brady said Tuesday in an interview with WBEZ.
Brady will focus on lobbying House Republicans in hopes of getting the same-sex marriage bill passed during this fall’s veto session, he said. He’ll also tap the political donors he cultivated during his four years as party chairman to raise money for groups that support gay marriage, and for Republican lawmakers who may be hesitant to cast a yes vote, fearing a challenge in next year’s primary.
Brady’s hiring comes after the ACLU launched a $10 million national push in June, aimed at winning support for same-sex marriage from Republican lawmakers and voters in a handful of states, including Illinois.
Steve Schmidt, a GOP strategist who was formerly a top advisor to Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, is heading up the national effort.
It’s probably not a bad hire at all, particularly if he follows through on the fundraising aspect. That alone could make him more effective than he was as chairman, when he couldn’t convince more than one Senate Republican and two House Republicans to vote for gay marriage. Brady also wasn’t the only Republican operative pushing gay marriage in Illinois last spring. Aside from Sen. Mark Kirk, some highly experienced and capable GOP lobbyists were also on board. They didn’t have much success.
I have no evidence yet, but I figure Tom Cross might decide to be a “Yes” vote now that he’s stepping aside as House GOP Leader. But that won’t have anything to do with lobbying. It’ll be about the fall campaign.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Aug 27, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Tedd McClelland…
Some time next spring, Michael Madigan will become the longest-serving state House Speaker in American history.
The current record is held by Thomas Bailey Murphy, who ruled the Georgia House of Representatives for 29 years, from 1973 to 2002.
First elected speaker in 1982, Madigan has held the job for all but two years — 1995 and 1996, when Lee Daniels sneaked in, as a beneficiary of Newt Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution.” Madigan long ago eclipsed the Illinois record of 11 years, held by Republican David Shanahan, who served from 1915-21, 1923-25 and 1929-32. […]
Madigan has a few things in common with Murphy. Both reigned as political bosses whose style was formed in an earlier period in their state’s history. In Murphy’s case, it was an era when rural courthouse gangs dominated Georgia politics. In Madigan’s case, it’s been the Democratic machine that reached its maximum effectiveness under his first patron, Mayor Richard J. Daley.
According to the New Georgia Encyclopedia, Murphy “could with the nod of his head make or break legislation.”
* Reboot Illinois has a list of the top ten longest-serving Illinois legislators…
* The Question: Do you support term limits for state legislators? Bonus Question: Do you support term limits for the four top legislative leaders? Take the polls and then explain your answers in comments, please.
survey services
polls
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A cautionary tale
Tuesday, Aug 27, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I was visiting a good friend’s office yesterday and accidentally left my mobile phone behind. I was sitting at a stop light in front of her office building listening to some loud tunes on the radio when my passenger door suddenly opened. The next thing I knew, there was a smiling person pointing my phone at me.
Needless to say, I was startled out of my mind, although I eventually managed a big smile and a “Thank you!” to my friend.
As I drove away, the incident got me to thinking. Even if I had a concealed carry permit, it wouldn’t have done me much good if my friend had been a carjacker. No way did I have enough time to react, let alone respond. I didn’t see her walk up to my vehicle. If she’d been a carjacker, my truck would’ve been gone, along with my gun.
Your response might be, “Well, you were in a ’safe’ area, so there was no need to be on your guard.” I’d point to the horrible murder of Sen. Napoleon Harris’ brother-in-law in a pretty safe South Loop neighborhood this summer. The family said they believed it was a carjacking.
* All I’m saying here is that I doubt most criminals are stupid enough to come at you from the front and give you time to respond. Predators try to take advantage. So, as someone who is himself planning to get a concealed carry permit once they’re available, I’m under no illusions that I’ll be all that much safer.
And God help me if I had overreacted and shot my extraordinarily helpful friend. I don’t want to even think about that. I wasn’t carrying yesterday, of course, because I don’t have a permit. But one day I may be.
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New play to debut about Stu Levine
Tuesday, Aug 27, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
During the federal investigation of former Governor Rod Blagojevich, one of the biggest stories became the unsavory life of political insider and star government witness, Stuart Levine. As the judge said at Levine’s sentencing: “you are certainly one of the most corrupt individuals this district has ever seen.”
The tawdry and salacious headlines about Levine - bribes, kickbacks, sex, drugs, and E-cigarettes - grabbed the attention of actor and writer Tim Touhy, a native Chicagoan and lifelong political junkie. Touhy also worked as a senior communications staffer for the Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office and a former Governor of Illinois (Republican Jim Edgar). Using court transcripts, news articles and group devising techniques, Touhy and The Agency’s Artistic Director, Andrew Gallant, put together this ground-breaking work.
“This is not the story of how the feds caught up with Rod Blagojevich; frankly, who cares anymore,” said Touhy. “This is a story of how one man yanked the business-as-usual politics of Chicago and Illinois out from behind the curtain and put them on display for the world to see.”
“I Wish to Apologize to the People of Illinois” is the name of the play. It premieres at Collaboraction’s Pentagon Theatre in the Flat Iron Arts Building, 1579 N. Milwaukee…
Previews Oct. 31 - Nov. 3; press opening Nov 7; runs Nov. 8 - Dec. 8. Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays at 7:30 PM; Sunday matinees at 3 PM.
Maybe we should do a group outing? Some of you may remember that I once held a party at the “How the Blagojegrinch Stole Christmas” play a few years back.
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Grogan to announce this afternoon
Tuesday, Aug 27, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
DuPage County Auditor Bob Grogran will hold a press conference to formally announce his candidacy for Illinois State Treasurer on Tuesday, August 27, in Du Quoin. Grogran (R) would be the first CPA to serve as State Treasurer.
What: Bob Grogan press conference, announcing for State Treasurer
Date: Tuesday, August 27th
When: 4 p.m.
Where: Republican Tent, Du Quoin State Fair, Du Quoin, IL
Notice the misspelling of his own name. Oops.
* Shall we welcome him to the race with a caption contest? From Grogan’s Facebook page…
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* Illinois Review has an interesting roundup of the weekend’s “Conservative Summit,” which picked state Sen. Kirk Dillard as their guy for governor…
Dillard promised the group conservatives would have unprecedented access to him, and that he would appoint, and regularly meet with, a committee of conservatives to strategize on public policy.
* But he also created an opening for anti-tax candidate Bruce Rauner…
When asked about gambling expansion, [Dillard] said he would try and pair down the number of casinos, preferring a second gas tax rather than gambling expansion to fund roads.
* And what about that Obama TV ad? It’ll help him in the general, Dillard said…
As to the 2008 ad he did praising Barack Obama, Dillard told the attendees he has never supported Obama, but that the ad does give him some credibility in the Black community.
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Union coalition blasts pension reform outline
Tuesday, Aug 27, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a We Are One Illinois press release…
“Published reports suggest the legislative conference committee on pension reform is ready to rehash the same unfair, unconstitutional attacks on retirement security.
“Particularly harmful is the committee’s threat to delay and sharply reduce the cost-of-living adjustment that protects retirees from inflation. Research shows that a COLA cut to half the rate of inflation slashes the benefit earned by a retiree just as deeply as the drastic Senate Bill 1 that was twice rejected in the Senate.
“Teachers, police, nurses, caregivers and hundreds of thousands more working and retired public servants earned their pension, never missed a payment, and in most cases aren’t eligible for Social Security. They deserve better from the conferees. So does the Illinois Constitution, which lawmakers are sworn to uphold and which provisions of the committee’s outline would directly violate.
“We urge conferees and all legislators to abandon unconstitutional cuts and focus on Senate Bill 2404, a compromise pension solution that maintains basic fairness, saves nearly $140 billion and has majority support in both the Senate and House.”
The research referenced in the statement is here. Over twenty years, the half-CPI proposal would reduce SERS pension benefits by 25.4 percent, according to the study.
…Adding… Tribune…
The Teachers’ Retirement System, which covers 700,000 working and retired teachers outside Chicago, downgraded its estimated savings from the Madigan plan by about $24.5 billion. That cuts the estimated overall savings for the Madigan plan to $163.2 billion.
And…
Democratic Rep. Elaine Nekritz of Northbrook, Madigan’s pension leader, also cautioned that the elements that have surfaced don’t represent a deal.
“No one said ‘yes,’ but no one said ‘no’ either,” Nekritz said about the overall “package or on individual components.”
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* From a press release…
Key conservatives and pro-family leaders from across Illinois met at the Conservative Summit Conference in suburban Burr Ridge on Saturday.
After hearing speeches and questioning GOP gubernatorial candidates Senator Bill Brady (R -Bloomington) and Senator Kirk Dillard (R -Hinsdale), the group of approximately 40 key leaders of pro-family, taxpayer, and Tea Party groups gave a significant boost to the candidacy of Kirk Dillard by giving him a rating of “strongly preferred”.
Dillard received an overwhelming vote of confidence from the conservative leaders 32-0 with 3 abstentions in the final vote. Many of the participants had supported Senator Brady in the 2012 Primary but switched to Dillard this time.
Previous Summit Conferences have launched the campaigns of U.S. Senate candidate Al Salvi (1995) and Senator Peter Fitzgerald in 1997.
Although both State Treasurer Dan Rutherford and Chicago businessman Bruce Rauner were invited to address the group, they did not attend.
* Pull quotes…
“Illinois now requires the leadership of an authentic conservative who respects, and commands the respect of, a diverse array of constituencies across our state; whose commitment to putting the state’s fiscal house in order is firm; whose competence in government management has been tested and proven; and whose opposition to corruption is unquestioned. Kirk Dillard is such a leader, and Illinoisans should unite to make him the next Governor of our state.” - Joseph A. Morris, Past President, United Republican Fund of Illinois; National Director, American Conservative Union; Convener of the Chicago Conservative Conference.
“I was impressed with Kirk’s ability to articulate conservative principles in a substantive way, and not seem like he’s giving a speech.” - Sheila R. Devall, Co-Chair, Patriotic Voices of Illinois; Peoria-Tazewell Tea Party Alliance.
“In prior elections, I have supported both Senator Dillard and Senator Brady. However, only one showed the passion and focus to win the General Election and lead Illinois out of the wilderness. Senator Kirk Dillard will make a great Governor.” - Jim Nalepa, Hinsdale business executive; Chairman, Phoenix Pac; Former GOP Candidate for Congress, 3rd District).
“Senator Kirk Dillard recognizes the importance of Illinois’ most valuable resource — families — and he understands that our state’s well-being is closely tied to the strength of this resource. I am confident that, if elected as governor, Dillard will work to strengthen and uphold family, marriage, life and liberty.” - David E. Smith, Executive Director of Illinois Family Action.
“It’s in the best interest of pro-life, pro-family organizations to support one candidate and thereby unite our movement for victory. The Summit has decided that Kirk Dillard is that person.” - Mary Anne Hackett, President, Catholic Citizens of Illinois.
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Question of the day
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the AP…
Illinois will lower the required age that students must attend school under legislation signed Sunday by Gov. Pat Quinn.
The law, which takes effect in the 2014-2015 school year, lowers the compulsory age from 7 to 6, a move state officials said puts Illinois in line with about half of U.S. states.
“It’s all about getting an early start on education,” Quinn said at an elementary school on the city’s West Side. He spoke a day before hundreds of thousands of Chicago Public Schools students are expected to start the first day of classes. […]
Opponents, including, Republicans, had questioned the cost of the change. State officials have estimated that lowering the age would cost roughly $28 million.
* The home schooler lobby opposed the bill and encouraged calls to legislators last spring…
When you call your representative, your message can be as simple as: “Please vote ‘no’ on HB 2762. It would lower the age of compulsory school attendance from 7 to 6 and make some young adults attend school even after high school graduation. Parents, not the government, know when it’s best for their young child to start formal education. Illinois is in financial trouble. It’s the wrong time to expand an expensive program.”
* The Question: Do you agree with this new law? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey tool
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Fair stuff
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I was standing there when Rep. Rich Brauer ponied up and jokingly encouraged him to sponsor another keg, but was shocked when I heard the price. Finke…
Belated credit is due to Brauer for helping to bail out Republican Day at the Illinois State Fair.
Both Republicans and Democrats have some similarities in their annual political gatherings at the fair. Namely, they have food, soft drinks and beer available for the party faithful. And the one thing you don’t want to do is run out of food, soft drinks or beer. Particularly the latter.
“They said we’re shutting down. We’re out,” Brauer said. “There were quite a few people left there. I said put me down for one.”
That’s one as in one keg of beer. Brauer said he offered to buy the keg of beer to keep the festivities going. Or in Republican Day political parlance, Brauer said he offered to sponsor a keg. The price tag was $240.
Both Brauer and I flinched a little when the price was announced. We were told that the State Fair gets a big cut of every keg sold. Ouch.
* Meanwhile, the Du Quoin State Fair opened last week. Gov. Pat Quinn was there for a bipartisan ribbon cutting…
Caption?
Quinn also publicly hugged Glenn Poshard during his visit, which was odd considering that the two men have been at each others’ throats over the SIU board of trustees for a year or so. Bygones be bygones and Quinn has a tough primary ahead, I suppose.
* Related…
* DCFS to honor the Poshard Foundation for Abused Children at Du Quoin State Fair
* Du Quoin State Fair sets opening day attendance record
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Quinn reacts to pension ideas
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Gov. Quinn was cautiously optimistic about the pension reform committee’s work product so far...
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn called the outline of a pension overhaul proposal floated by a bipartisan panel “positive” and “progress,” but he shied away Sunday from saying whether he’d fully back it.
The so-called conference committee — a 10-member panel formed in June to come up with a solution to Illinois’ nearly $100 billion crisis — is considering a framework that would, among other things, end automatic 3 percent cost-of-living increases for retirees. Increases would instead be linked to the rate of inflation.
“It appears … that some progress is being made,” Quinn told reporters after an unrelated Chicago event. “We still have to get to the finish line but I think the concepts … are very positive indeed.” […]
He said although some of the concepts in the plan are familiar and his own budget office is heavily involved in the committee’s research, he wants to see final details of a plan before he weighs in.
* Background on the framework, from Friday’s post…
A bipartisan panel tasked with solving Illinois’ multibillion-dollar pension crisis is considering a framework that would save the state about $145 billion over 30 years, largely by ending automatic 3 percent cost-of-living increases for retirees. […]
It calls for setting retirees’ annual cost-of-living increases at half the rate of inflation, though it would set both floors and caps — which were not included in the outline — for what the rate would be. That formula would likely equate to smaller adjustments than the current 3 percent increases, compounded annually.
Employees would contribute 1 percent less to their own retirement, according to the document. But their annual pension benefit would be based on their salary over their career, rather than on the higher amount they’re making right before they retire.
It would reduce the state’s nearly $100 billion unfunded pension liability by about $18.1 billion and fully fund the retirement systems within 30 years.
Keep in mind here that there’s no deal yet.
* Also keep in mind that when Gov. Quinn talked to reporters over the weekend, he wouldn’t commit to actually putting votes on the bill, which is a demand of House Speaker Michael Madigan. Listen…
From the audio…
“Well, uh, it has to get to my desk. They still have to vote on it, the Legislature. I sure hope that they can expedite that. If the members of the House, the Senate pass the bill, put it on my desk, that does the job, erases the pension liability, moves us forward, then I’ll be able to sign the bill into law.”
* And, of course the Tribune editorial board didn’t care for the ideas…
Led by state Sen. Kwame Raoul, the pension committee has been hyperfocused on meeting the constitutional wording that pensions cannot be diminished or impaired. But without more ambitious reform that would save the pension system more money, the benefits may not be there for retirees at all — or taxpayers may have to pay more.
The committee’s draft plan assumes: 1) The state can and will continue to afford to make huge payments annually into the pension system. 2) The legislature will honor that “savings” commitment long after paying off old debt and not spend the money elsewhere. 3) All pension investments will meet an annual return of 8 percent … for three decades.
Taxpayers would be on the hook if any of those assumptions fail.
The pension committee continues to work out the details of the proposal, which its members hope to unveil the week of Sept. 9. So far, their proposal does not include giving workers the option of a 401(k)-style plan. That idea should be resurrected.
Committee: You’ve come this far. Keep going. You can do better than this. Give taxpayers and public sector workers a more ambitious plan that will stabilize the system. No wings, no prayers — just basic math.
The Tribune led the charge against Senate President Cullerton’s A-B plan, which could’ve solved this problem months ago. If they actively try to kill the pension reform compromise which eventually emerges from the conference committee, then they should be looked at as part of the problem here. You just can’t pass everything. There comes a time for compromise.
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Here come the lite guvs
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Twitters…
* The AP ran a story over the weekend about lite guv announcement timelines…
“My No. 1 priority was would this individual both in reality and perception-wise (among voters) be able to succeed me,” said state Treasurer Dan Rutherford, a Chenoa Republican who said he’s already picked someone and will make the name public in the next few weeks.
Brady said he expects to announce his running mate around Labor Day, and an adviser to state Sen. Kirk Dillard said the Hinsdale Republican plans to make his choice public around then, too.
Mike Schrimpf, a spokesman for Bruce Rauner, said the Republican businessman’s campaign likely won’t have an announcement until later in the year. He said Rauner mainly is looking for someone who shares his willingness to “take on the special interests in Springfield.”
Quinn, who became the first Illinois lieutenant governor in more than three decades to ascend to the state’s top spot when now-imprisoned former Gov. Rod Blagojevich was booted out of office, is looking for a replacement for Simon, who’s running for comp-troller. He said he’s looking for “a people person” who can relate to ordinary citizens, adding that he’s heard from a lot of potential running mates and plans to sit down and talk with them.
Former White House chief of staff Bill Daley, who’s challenging Quinn in the Democratic primary, would like a running mate with private sector management experience who’s also worked with elected officials, spokesman Pete Giangreco said.
Failed 2010 attorney general candidate Steve Kim is apparently on the radar screen for Rutherford in addition to retiring state Rep. Kay Hatcher. We’ll see.
* Jim Nowlan’s take…
Gov. Pat Quinn is unpopular downstate, but more than 60 percent of the Democratic primary vote is cast in Cook County alone, so he may want a black or Hispanic from Cook. His present lite guv is Sheila Simon of Carbondale, daughter of the late U.S. senator, who is running for comptroller.
Quinn will have a tough time finding a running mate, as he is so unpopular with legislators, whose salaries he vetoed, among other slams against lawmakers.
Chicagoan Bill Daley, of the Democratic Daley clan, will want either an attractive black such as state senators Toi Hutchinson or Kimberly Lightford, who do not face re-election in 2014, or a downstater, where his name is not playing well.
On the Republican side, Bill Brady of Bloomington is probably vetting suburban women, a region and gender where Brady fared badly in his narrow loss to Quinn in 2010.
(By the way, gender was not even a consideration back in 1972 when I was a candidate; times change quickly.)
State treasurer Dan Rutherford of Pontiac will also probably want a suburban woman, though I have no idea who that might be.
State senator Kirk Dillard of suburban DuPage County is probably looking for a downstate woman. Karen Hasara comes to mind; a former state senator, mayor of Springfield and member of the University of Illinois Board of Trustees, Karen would be an attractive match.
Wild-card megabucks financier Bruce Rauner is thought of as a Chicagoan, where his business is located, but he grew up in the suburbs. Several downstate senators with free rides such as former prosecutor Dale Righter, R-Mattoon, might make attractive complements.
Any ideas?
*** UPDATE *** Chuck Sweeny thinks retiring Rep. Jim Sacia may run for lt. governor...
“I’m very seriously contemplating a run for another office,” he said. It won’t be a legislative office, because “I’m not going to run against (state Sen.) Tim Bivins (R-45),” he said.
Through a process of elimination we narrowed things down to a statewide office, and that’s as far as he would go at revealing future plans. Whatever it is, Sacia gave indications that he’s preparing for an all-out, full-time campaign.
“To me, running for office is like being in office. It’s a full-time job. Had I stayed in the House, I would have not been devoting full time to my legislative responsibilities. Not only that, but you lose some effectiveness as a lame duck.” […]
Treasurer Dan Rutherford, a Republican, is running for governor; at least two Republicans, Michael Scott Carter and Bob Schillerstrom want that job. That might be a possibility for Sacia.
And then there’s lieutenant governor, the office I think he’ll seek. The office will be open because Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon, a Democrat, is running for comptroller.
Um, the office will be open because it’s an election year. Other than that, he may be right.
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Words of wisdom
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I couldn’t agree more with Chris Mooney…
[Gov. Pat Quinn’s] political obituary was half written twice in 2010 before he narrowly won difficult primary and general elections.
“You would think that an incumbent with his low approval level would be toast,” said Chris Mooney, director of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “But every election is not about ideals, it’s about choices.”
Too many pundits characterize elections as “referenda” on incumbents or the party in power. They’re not. Elections, in the end, are almost all about how the choices are defined between the candidates on the ballot. Pat Quinn’s job approval rating was just 24 percent in a late September, 2010 Public Policy Polling survey and 28 percent in an early September, 2010 Tribune poll. He still won, mainly by defining his opponent as potentially even worse than he was.
Never forget that.
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Puppy tourism
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* After his bath yesterday, Oscar the Puppy toured the Statehouse grounds…
* With Abe…
* One last look…
Oscar is not allowed inside the Statehouse, so that’s about as close as he’ll get to where I work during session unless somebody changes the rules.
*** UPDATE *** Oops. I meant to add some related links to this post and completely forgot. Here they are…
* $50 million Capitol west wing renovation almost done
* Photos: Statehouse renovation project
* What Happens To ‘Puppy Lemon Law’ Dogs?
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This ain’t another Gidwitz
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has focused like a laser on his absolute disgust with public employee unions like AFSCME, the Illinois Education Association and the Illinois Federation of Teachers. The wealthy former business executive claims the unions are the root of most of Illinois’ problems and has decried the “corrupting” influence of their campaign cash on both political parties.
Illinois Republicans appear to overwhelmingly agree with Rauner.
“Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a Republican candidate for governor who received hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from public employee unions? ” 1,614 likely Republican primary voters were asked August 21st in a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll.
An overwhelming 80 percent said they’d be less likely to back such a candidate, while a mere 8 percent said they’d be more likely to do so.
The Rauner campaign claims that rival candidate state Sen. Kirk Dillard has received over $400,000 from public employee unions during his long career. Dillard has defended his friendship with the unions by saying they should be worked with, but has also pointed to his support for union-opposed pension reform bills. Even so, that labor cash appears to be a no-go for Dillard.
Rauner’s other two opponents, Treasurer Dan Rutherford and Sen. Bill Brady, have also received significant contributions from public employee unions, and Rauner’s campaign has made it clear those ties will be used against them as well.
Rauner has also formed a new, well-funded political action committee to push for term limits. When asked if they’d be more or less likely to support a GOP gubernatorial candidate “who supports a constitutional amendment limiting the number of terms state legislators may serve,” 76 percent of Republicans said they’d be more likely, while a mere 13 percent said they’d be less likely and 12 percent said it made no difference.
Sen. Brady says he supports legislative term limits, but he was first elected to the General Assembly 21 years ago. Treasurer Rutherford and Sen. Dillard are both on record opposing term limits.
Both Brady and Dillard voted for a bill which allowed illegal immigrants to apply for state drivers licenses. A whopping 83 percent of likely Republican primary voters said that this vote would make them less likely to support those candidates.
It’s unlikely that Rauner would make a campaign issue out of those immigration votes, since he’d have a tough time winning the fall election if he “goes there.” The Latino vote, as I’ve pointed out time and time again, has gained incredible strength in this state. But Rauner has already benefited from third party TV ad spending, which helped drive Congressman Aaron Schock out of the race, and some of his supporters, including ultra-conservative millionaire Jack Roeser, are probably in a position to “help” make this an issue if necessary.
Roeser, by the way, wasn’t happy that Rauner admitted to being pro-choice earlier this year. But the activist has stuck with Rauner, likely because of his outright hostility toward the teachers’ unions. Roeser has long despised those unions.
A July 16th We Ask America poll found that Republican primary voters aren’t all that uniform on the issue anyway. Just 45 percent said they’d be less likely to vote for a pro-choice gubernatorial candidate. But 32 percent said they’d be more likely to vote for such a candidate and 23 percent said the issue made no difference, meaning that Rauner’s position doesn’t really hurt him with over half the primary electorate.
Since a recent poll found that 83 percent of GOP primary voters would be less likely to vote for Rauner because of his close ties to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Dillard and Brady have amped up their criticism of that relationship
But, so far, neither Dillard nor Brady have shown they can raise the kind of money needed to run an effective negative paid media campaign.
And while those other candidates struggle to raise the money necessary to get on the air, Rauner can run all the ads he needs to tout the issues that put him on the same side of the vast majority of Republican primary voters, and connect his opponents to the opposition.
Rauner seems to have a very deliberate, poll-tested victory strategy. He’s no lock, but he has a workable plan.
Discuss.
24 Comments
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Raoul by the numbers
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The problem with most pundits when it comes to estimating Sen. Kwame Raoul’s chances in a Democratic primary is that they speak from the gut instead of using any actual polling numbers or recent history. Ergo, my Sun-Times column…
A debate of sorts is raging about whether state Sen. Kwame Raoul would be a “spoiler” for Bill Daley if Raoul ran for governor.
The assumption is that Raoul, who is black, can’t win, but that he would take away so many African-American votes from Gov. Pat Quinn that Quinn would lose to Daley, who supposedly does so poorly with black voters that a Raoul candidacy wouldn’t hurt him.
I’ve commissioned some polling that should be helpful here.
A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters on July 19 found that Quinn was leading Daley 38-33. In that poll, the governor was getting less than half — 47 percent — of the black vote, while Daley was getting 26 percent, which isn’t bad when you figure that another quarter of the black vote was still up for grabs.
I commissioned yet another poll of 1,528 likely Democratic primary voters on Aug. 6 and added Sen. Raoul’s name into the mix. In that Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, Raoul was identified as a state senator and “an African-American attorney from Chicago.” Daley was identified as a former White House chief of staff and Quinn was identified as the governor.
The results showed Quinn led Daley by four points, 27-23, with Raoul getting 13. The Quinn-vs.-Daley spread barely changed from the July poll, belying the notion, at least so far, that Raoul is an automatic spoiler for Daley. Quinn’s lead over Daley dropped a lot among black Democrats with Raoul in the race, but Quinn went from trailing Daley among whites by two points in July to leading Daley by five when Raoul was put into the mix.
And Raoul’s score of 13 percent right off the bat is pretty darned good, especially considering that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has spent $2 million on TV and radio ads and is polling at about the same level as Raoul is now.
Why is that? Well, one reason is that history shows black voters tend to support legitimate black candidates, so Raoul doesn’t need to spend huge money to get himself into contention as long as he’s running a solid campaign.
Another big reason can be found in another poll I commissioned on Aug. 12, which found that 48 percent of 1,538 likely Democratic primary voters were dissatisfied with their choice between Quinn and Daley and 9 percent were unsure. So a clear 57 percent majority were either unhappy or ambivalent about the two announced candidates.
Among black Democrats, just 31 percent were satisfied and a huge 57 percent were dissatisfied with their two choices.
It’s pretty obvious that lots of Democrats want somebody else to run, and black Democrats are particularly eager to see another candidate get into the race. If Raoul can satisfy that very clear Democratic hunger for “somebody else,” then he has a real shot at winning.
With the help of most of his Democratic state Senate colleagues throughout the state and Senate President John Cullerton’s fund-raising and campaign infrastructure assistance, I think the numbers we have so far show that Raoul could overcome a somewhat late start and very well win this thing.
And what if Raoul loses and Daley wins? Nobody can totally rule that out. But a June 13 Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,322 likely Democratic primary voters found that just 28 percent of African-Americans approved of Pat Quinn’s job performance, while 40 percent disapproved. Blacks gave Quinn the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval rating of any race or ethnicity. So, African-American Democrats obviously don’t care much for the governor’s tenure anyway.
Thoughts?
12 Comments
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Rutherford pledges not to go negative
Monday, Aug 26, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz…
He won’t go negative, says Mr. Rutherford, perhaps hoping that one of the other candidates, state Sens. Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady, will do the job for him, or perhaps knowing that attacking Mr. Rauner would invite massive retaliation from a man who plays hardball.
Rather, he says, it will be by playing his own game: working the precincts and county board chairs, carefully spending his $1 million war chest and emphasizing his success as one of only two Republicans to win statewide office since 2002. (The other is Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka.)
“The Republican Party base is looking for someone they have a relationship with,” he says. “I’m the guy who’s won. I got more votes than Pat Quinn did last time.”
Good idea or not?
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