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Post-campaign notebook

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* All opposed Illinois congressional Democrats appear to have under-performed Biden 2020 results in their newly drawn districts, which is to be expected when the party controls the White House during a midterm. But they didn’t under-perform Biden enough to lose any seats. The Dem maps/candidates/messaging held and the GOP candidates/messaging failed…


* From Tom Kacich’s story on Nikki Budzinski

The congresswoman-elect, who is a University of Illinois graduate, did especially well in areas near the UI campus. Of nine Champaign-Urbana precincts where the student vote dominates, Budzinski currently has 3,580 votes to 424 for Deering.

Wow.

* Speaking of winning Democratic candidates, US Rep.-elect Delia Ramirez sent me a selfie from freshman orientation this morning…

* Neil Steinberg

J.B. Pritzker … what do you say? He must really, really want to be governor. He plowed $171 million into his 2018 victory, and then put another $152 million into 2022. Can anyone make an observation about him that isn’t somehow tainted by the third of a billion dollars worth of hype firehosed at us over the past four years?

Whew.

* From a Crain’s Chicago Business editorial about what the governor should do now

But now that he doesn’t have to talk voters—and organized labor—into supporting him, what other measures is Pritzker willing to take to further bend the pension liability curve downward?

In other words, they are demanding that the governor flip on the people who put him and kept him in office.

From the same editorial

Finally, there’s the elephant in the room: crime. Granted, the governor is not the mayor. Beyond the Illinois State Police, he has little direct control over any particular municipality’s approach to making Illinois’ streets safer. That said, he has a massive bully pulpit—and he must use it to send a message throughout that state that he understands the urgency of the public safety challenge and will do all he can to make crime prevention and effective policing a top priority in his second term.

So… the Bailey approach of just talking about it?

* Daily Herald

[ILGOP Chair Don Tracy] said Tuesday’s results stung, but he’s not sure what could have changed the party’s fortunes. “I’m head of the party, so obviously I can’t deny responsibility,” he said, “but I haven’t heard anybody so far say we could have done anything differently.”

Maybe ask more people?

* From last week

One bright sign for the party: It appears to have held on to the Cook County Board seat of the retiring Pete Silvestri. Though some mail ballots are yet to be counted, GOP nominee Matt Padgorski has a better than 1,000-vote lead over Democrat Maggie Trevor.

That lead has since narrowed to 178.

* Tribune

Durkin’s leadership role wasn’t the only casualty of the election. Several members of his leadership team — many of whom have records of bipartisanship — will be gone when the new legislature is sworn in early next year.

Along with Rep. Dan Brady of Bloomington, who ran unsuccessfully for secretary of state, Rep. Tom Demmer of Dixon lost for state treasurer and Rep. Avery Bourne of Morrisonville made a failed bid for lieutenant governor in the June GOP primary. Rep. David Welter of Morris lost to a more conservative challenger in the primary, and Rep. Keith Wheeler of Oswego was unseated in the general election. Rep. Mark Batinick of Plainfield, meanwhile, chose not to seek another term. Early Friday morning, Rep. Tim Butler of Springfield, who was reelected three days earlier, said he would resign before the new legislature is seated to take a job with the Illinois Railroad Association.

Rep. Butler, by the way, will be taking advantage of an ethics loophole that he spoke against after the bill was passed

This legislation barely scratches the surface of what needs to be accomplished for ethics reform. Debate on the bill revealed that the revolving door prohibition outlined in the legislation would allow current members of the legislature to become lobbyists for the General Assembly one day after their retirement. This is not real reform. This is the status-quo!

As long as he resigns before his current term ends, he can begin lobbying for the railroads on the first day of the 103rd General Assembly.

* SJ-R

The future remains promising for Illinois Democrats, but Redfield still sees some room for improvement when it comes to attracting working-class support which has increasingly favored the GOP in recent elections. The tent is large for the Democrats, which can lend way to head-butting between the moderate and progressive wings.

He said the red wave never cresting may cause some Democrats to think the gap does not need to be bridged.

“I thought the Republicans were going to do a lot, lot better,” Redfield said. “Since they didn’t, then the temptation on the Democrat’s side will be to say ‘Well, we’re doing great.’… I don’t think that’s a good policy.”

Funny how people seem to forget that Black and Latino working class voters are solidly Democratic here.

* The Hill

A striking 45 percent of voters in Michigan’s gubernatorial race named abortion as their top priority — far higher than any other issue. Those voters broke 77 percent to 22 percent for Whitmer over her Republican opponent, conservative commentator Tudor Dixon.

Whitmer, who Republicans had believed to be vulnerable, won reelection by more than 10 points.

* Isabel’s roundup…

  33 Comments      


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Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Today’s quotable

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Eastern Bloc member Rep. Dan Caulkins (R-Decatur) in Center Square

“I just think that we need to get better organized and offer the people of Illinois a choice,” Caulkins said. “I don’t know, maybe things just haven’t gotten bad enough yet to where enough people haven’t figured it out.”

  44 Comments      


Pritzker wants to use big, one-time revenue bump to boost rainy-day fund, pay off some bonds and put more into the UI trust fund

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) released the annual Illinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report showing under Governor Pritzker’s leadership Illinois is in its best fiscal shape in decades.

“Illinois’ bills are being paid on time, we have over $1 billion in our rainy-day fund, our credit ratings are up and we are honoring our commitments to long-term financial liabilities by contributing extra to Illinois’ pension systems,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “As we celebrate the tremendous progress we’ve made with our partners in the General Assembly, we remain committed to working tirelessly for Illinois taxpayers and responsibly managing the state’s finances. We’ve closed a seemingly insurmountable structural deficit that I inherited, and together we are securing Illinois’ long term fiscal stability and providing economic opportunities to its citizens.”

The future years’ budget outlook detailed in the report benefits from strong fiscal management over recent years as the Governor worked with partners in the General Assembly, the Comptroller and the Treasurer, to balance state budgets, tackle the state’s multi-billion-dollar bill backlog, repay COVID related short-term borrowings early, make $500 million in extra-ordinary payments to the state’s pension systems and put more than $1 billion in a savings account for fiscal emergencies or economic downturns. Additionally, by rebuilding the foundation of the state’s finances during the Pritzker administration, the Governor and lawmakers were able to provide $1.8 billion in tax relief this year to the hardworking people of Illinois.

Even with troubling national economic indicators, income and sales tax collections so far this fiscal year continue to exceed budget forecasts by significant margins. Coupled with other one-time revenues, the General Funds revenue forecast for fiscal year 2023 is revised upward by $3.69 billion. GOMB is continuing to monitor the revenues closely as inflation and national/international factors beyond the state’s control may impact the economy in uncertain ways. GOMB is now projecting a nearly $1.7 billion net surplus in the general funds budget for fiscal year 2023, wiping out a forecasted fiscal year 2023 shortfall of nearly $3 billion as estimated in 2019.

The Governor intends to pursue several actions to continue Illinois’ strong path forward, and put the state in the best possible fiscal position to prepare for the economic uncertainty that lies ahead. The Governor’s recommended actions include working with the Legislature to:

    • Make additional deposits of $1.3 billion into the state’s rainy-day fund, bringing it to more than $2.3 billion. While Illinois currently has its highest balance ever at $1.045 billion, Illinois is still among the smallest state rainy-day funds.
    • Set aside funds to pay off revenue bonds issued in 2010 to help the state pay bills that mounted during the Great Recession. About one-third of the $1.5 billion borrowed at the time remains outstanding.
    • Make an additional contribution toward the Unemployment Insurance Trust fund. The Trust Fund’s remaining debt to the federal government is $1.345 billion plus interest. The Governor and the General Assembly have already taken several steps to reduce the amounts owed from last year’s level of $4.5 billion.

Illinois’ significant improvement to its fiscal outlook has been noticed by the state’s credit rating agencies, which have upgraded Illinois’ General Obligation Bond credit ratings a total of six times during the past year.
GOMB is required to annually submit an Economic and Fiscal Policy Report to the General Assembly outlining the long-term economic and fiscal policy objectives of the state, along with the economic and fiscal policy intentions for the upcoming fiscal year and for the subsequent four fiscal years.

The reports are available to the public online and can be found here: https://budget.illinois.gov/policy-reports.html.

* Attached charts

* More from the report

For fiscal year 2023, the Governor proposes to direct funds towards the remaining Railsplitter Tobacco Settlement Authority bonds. In December 2010, the Railsplitter Tobacco Settlement Authority issued revenue bonds in the amount of $1.5 billion to address a portion of the State’s unpaid bill backlog resulting from the Great Recession. The repayment stream is the State’s tobacco settlement payments under the Master Settlement Agreement between various states and various cigarette manufacturers. Of the original $1.5 billion issued in 2010, approximately $561 million – or over 1/3 of the original issue ‐ remains outstanding.

The Governor proposes working with the legislature to provide funds towards a cash defeasance of a portion of the remaining outstanding bonds with proceeds from a recent Attorney General settlement resolving claims regarding certain payments from tobacco companies. Once the bonds are paid off, the tobacco payment stream would be freed up to be used as ongoing annual state revenues to support the State’s Medicaid program.

* And the walkdown

* An important excerpt from the full report

Additionally, a larger than forecasted end of fiscal year 2022 balance in the Income Tax Refund Fund (due to stronger than expected income tax performance last fiscal year) has contributed a one‐time bump in the annual transfer from the fund of $1.28 billion. […]

Note that most of this fiscal year 2023 revenue forecast revision is assumed to be one‐time in nature.

And with a currently projected $384 million deficit in FY2025 rising to a $708 million projected deficit in FY2028, putting any of that new revenue into base spending would probably not be prudent. We’ll see if the Democrats can hold themselves back.

Thoughts?

…Adding… Comptroller Mendoza…

I wholeheartedly endorse Governor Pritzker’s proposal to put $1.3 billion more in the state’s Rainy Day Fund.

This will continue Illinois’ progress catching up to other states on preparing for any possible economic downturn. It protects Illinois’ important programs that care for our state’s most vulnerable, our schools and our health care systems.

I will continue to fight for passage of my Rainy Day Fund bill, HB 4118, which makes funding the Rainy Day fund and the Pension Stabilization Fund an annual obligation.

This responsible budgeting will send exactly the right message to the bond rating agencies that Illinois remains a good investment and is serious about restoring our fiscal health.

It’s prudent to be cautious about the impact inflationary pressures from the national/international economies can have on Illinois government. The report notes the Federal Reserve tries to mitigate these pressures, encouraging less spending and more savings. Likewise, with state government, Illinois should heed this direction to spend less and to save more and must better prepare for economic downturns that could hamper our ability to meet state obligations. This is why continuing to build the state’s Rainy Day Fund is essential. It is also the best path to further bond rating upgrades.

I urge legislators to get behind Governor Pritzker’s proposals to put more money in the Rainy Day Fund and toward the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund, including funds to address technology funding shortages. Any urge to spend one-time revenues on new programs must be resisted. Now is not the time to spend. It is time to shore up our reserves and continue exhibiting strong fiscal discipline.

  25 Comments      


Illinois Medicaid contractor failed to deliver basic medical services to foster children

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* From the BGA’s new Illinois Answers Project

Illinois’ top Medicaid contractor has repeatedly failed to deliver basic medical services to thousands of foster children, from dental visits to immunizations to well-being checks, leaving foster parents to scramble to find health care, wait months for appointments and pay medical expenses out of their own pockets for the abused and neglected children they take into their homes, an Illinois Answers Project investigation has found.

Since 2020, the state of Illinois has paid nearly $370 million to the for-profit insurance powerhouse Centene Corp. to manage health care for 36,700 current and former foster children as part of the state’s YouthCare program.

These payments were made even as Centene repeatedly failed to meet common benchmarks, government records show.

The failures have forced foster parents — people who take in abused or neglected children frequently in need of urgent medical care — to grapple with a health care program that’s often underperforming and in disarray. That’s according to state data obtained through a lawsuit and interviews with foster parents, medical providers and state officials.

* To get Centene’s basic performance records, the Better Government Association filed a lawsuit in 2021 after being defined records

The contract has rolled out in phases as some foster parents complained they could not fill prescriptions or even schedule regular check-ups for children with serious medical conditions.

Last year, Meridian began producing for state officials quarterly slideshows with basic data about its performance in delivering care. The slides are meant to outline whether Meridian is meeting timeliness and quality standards, and what it’s doing to overcome problems.

But when the BGA asked last month to see those slideshows, state officials turned them over almost completely redacted — with entire slides blacked out.

The contractor’s performance data constituted “trade secrets,” HFS explained in its denial letter to the BGA.

* Across the country, Centene has showered politicians with contributions while settling over-billing allegations. Missouri Independent

Since 2015, the Clayton-based insurance behemoth, its subsidiaries, its top executives, and their spouses have given more than $26.9 million to state politicians in 33 states, to their political parties, and to nonprofit fundraising groups, according to a KHN analysis of IRS tax filings and data from the nonpartisan, nonprofit group OpenSecrets. That total doesn’t include the millions of dollars Centene and its subsidiaries have given to state politicians’ political action committees because OpenSecrets doesn’t track those donations. The KHN analysis also does not include giving to congressional and presidential candidates.

It’s a purposeful political investment: Centene earns billions of dollars from governments and then uses its profits to back the campaigns of the officials who oversee those government contracts. The company has developed this sophisticated, multipronged strategy as it pursues even more state government-funded contracts and defends against sweeping accusations that it overbilled many of those very governments.

Centene declined to make a representative available for an interview and didn’t respond to specific questions about its political giving. But company spokesperson Suzy DePrizio said in a statement that the company follows all local, state, and federal laws and records all contributions from its political action committee. She said Centene’s contributions “are intended to serve as support to those who advocate for sound public policy healthcare decisions, which is evident by our nearly equal support of candidates from both parties.”

This year, according to IRS filings that go through Sept. 30, Centene has given $2.2 million, combined, to the Republican and Democratic governors’ associations, which help elect candidates from their respective parties. And Centene gave $250,000, combined, to the Republican Attorneys General Association and its Democratic counterpart.

  16 Comments      


Proft offers an explanation

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Dan Proft explains to Greg Hinz why his messaging failed

The first: “Making personal safety the referendum question was the best play we had. It put Pritzker (and Lightfoot) on defense the entire race. It kept him focused on me rather than Bailey and it had the added benefit of broad bipartisan opposition–prosecutors, judges, sheriffs, et al.” So it worked, up to a point.

However, he continued, “At the end of the day, as in New York, there are not enough motivated voters, to the extent they exist at all, to make a change even with broad agreement on an issue that was essentially even with abortion in terms of animating votes (per a lot of polling).” Or as he put it earlier in the email, “Many of those Rs you think are in the suburbs aren’t. And many who are left are either fatalistic–about a lot more than Bailey (see the congressional and leg(islative) races)–or cowered into inaction by the Leftist mob’s vilification.”

Retort

Proft “doesn’t do meaningful research on voters and tailor messaging to it. He just figures out what will make Dick Uihlein get his rocks off,” says Tom Bowen, who currently is working for Lightfoot. “Voters have competing priorities. You can’t just say ‘crime, bad. BOO!’ and hope that works if you don’t credibly put forward a plan as an alternative. Also, you can’t divorce that from what’s going on elsewhere.”

The crime issue failed spectacularly in the primary for Richard Irvin and then Proft amped up the volume to 11 in the general. Only Proft and Uihlein believed it could work, apparently, to the tune of $42 million.

  66 Comments      


Abortion news coverage roundup

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* St. Louis Public Radio

For months, abortion providers in the Metro East have described a surge in patients since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that legalized abortion nationwide.

A national report from the Society for Family Planning has documented that increase. It notes that Illinois clinics performed nearly 30% more abortions in August than in April, even as the total number of procedures fell across the United States. […]

The group began compiling the list in early 2022. It found that Illinois providers performed nearly 7,000 abortions in August, up from 5,400 in May and April and nearly 6,000 in June.

The jump in abortions performed by Illinois clinics comes as states in the south-central region of the United States saw a 96% decrease in the number of abortions between April and August. Many patients are coming to Illinois, where abortion remains legal, from Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and other states where lawmakers swiftly banned the procedure.

* And Scape

When the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in June, Missouri became the first state to outlaw abortion. Since then, logistics centers and clinics in neighboring states where abortions are legal are feeling the brunt of the decision. Demands for services are increasing, and people from Missouri are flocking to Illinois or Kansas get an abortion. […]

In 2020, a year after state legislators passed a strict ban on abortion after eight weeks of pregnancy, 3,391 Missourians received an abortion. Of that number, 1,837 white women and 1,160 Black women underwent the procedure. That same year, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health, doctors in Illinois performed 6,578 abortions on Missouri residents. Meanwhile, the 2021 Kansas Department of Health and Environment’s preliminary data found that 3,458 Missouri residents received an abortion in Kansas. […]

A recent report from Missouri’s health department found that Black women are three times more likely to die while pregnant or within a year of pregnancy than white women. And over the past 10 years, Missouri’s maternal mortality rates have increased. Some factors for Black women residents include late entry for prenatal care, pregnancy-related homicides, and that Black mothers in rural areas of the state experience low birth weight and preterm births at a greater rate than white mothers in rural or urban areas or Black women in urban parts of the state.

This data exposes the inequities in health care access and maternal health outcomes for African American women, which points to why advocates say more Black women in Missouri will die because of lack of access to abortions.

* Shaw Local

John T. Shaw, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, said pollsters and Republicans across the country believed crime and inflation were “the twin issues that would shape the election.”

Abortion, Shaw said, was likely a larger issue propelling voters than pollsters accounted for.

“It is unclear if this is the fault of polling or if people were propelled by that issue but didn’t want to disclose that to pollsters,” Shaw said. […]

No other issue came close, the AP report said, but many other issues were named most important by about 1 in 10 voters, including abortion, health care, climate change and gun policy.

* The Tribune

The upcoming session is not expected to address other issues that played high profile roles in the election, including additional protections for abortion access and a proposed ban on assault-style weapons. Those highly fraught topics likely will be pushed off into the new year, when the current crop of lawmakers returns to Springfield for a lame-duck session before newly elected legislators are sworn in. […]

One of the challenges facing lawmakers in the upcoming session is that any measure that passes requires a three-fifths majority in both chambers if it is to take immediate effect. While Democrats hold supermajorities in both chambers, rounding up enough votes on controversial matters to clear that hurdle isn’t always a given.

That’s a major reason why any action on hot-button issues like gun control and abortion is more likely to come after the new year, when only a simple majority would be needed. […]

Pritzker and other Democrats also have been looking for ways to strengthen the state’s already formidable protections for abortion access, and to support providers who are grappling with an influx of patients from other states, in light of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade this summer.

  5 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Secretary of State-Elect Alexi Giannoulias’ RevUpIllinois.com

* The Question: Do you have any ideas about these and perhaps other secretary of state-related issues? Explain.

  24 Comments      


Speaker Welch claims reelection victory

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Not a surprise, considering how well he did last week…

House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch released the following statement Monday:

“The people of Illinois have called on House Democrats to continue our efforts to move our state forward, and with the support of an expanded Democratic Caucus, I’m proud to say that I have secured the necessary votes to continue these efforts as Speaker of the House. I’m honored by the trust my colleagues and my neighbors have placed in me, and I’m ready to build on the progress we have made in the past two years.

“Thanks to Democrats we have taken significant steps to get our fiscal house in order and help families make ends meet amid turbulent global markets. We’ve expanded resources for our community outreach programs and law enforcement to help keep families safe. We’ve invested in our students and teachers, and taken steps to rebuild confidence in state government. And we’ve made it clear that Illinois will always protect the right to choose, no matter what extremist judges say. We have more work to do– and with a strong, diverse, and talented Democratic Caucus alongside me, I am excited to continue the work Illinoisans have sent us to do.”

In addition to securing the votes of legislators, Welch is supported by a broad coalition of advocacy groups including:

AFSCME Council 31
Chicago Federation of Labor
Chicago Teachers Union
IBEW Local 134
IBEW State Council
Illinois AFL-CIO
Illinois Education Association
Illinois Federation of Teachers
Illinois Trial Lawyers Association
Ironworkers Local 63
Laborers International Union – Midwest Region
Operating Engineers Local 150
Personal PAC
Sheet Metal Workers (SMART) Local 265
SEIU Illinois
United Food and Commercial Workers

  6 Comments      


Report: Workers’ Rights Amendment has more than enough votes to pass

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tweet…


Spreadsheet with the data is here.

…Adding… Election results from the Vote Yes for Workers’ Rights folks are here.

  38 Comments      


It’s just a bill

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* WBEZ

There are some proposals dealing with cannabis issues that could theoretically still pass within a couple months, and though that’s unlikely, at least one lawmaker is still hopeful.

A bill (HB3415) sponsored by state Rep. Marcus Evans, D-Chicago, would create a Cannabis Control Commission with seven governor-appointed members and an executive director. It would assume the functions of various state agencies that handle specific components of cannabis regulation.

Right now, a person may have to go to the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation to seek a dispensary license. But if they want a license for a 5,000- to 14,000-square-foot craft grow facility or 210,000-square-foot cultivation center? That’s the Department of Agriculture. The Department of Revenue handles cannabis income. […]

Akele Parnell, CEO of Umi Farms and also a board member of Chicago NORML, said a single commission would make sense.

“It would 100% help the licensees, and I think the consumers,” Parnell said of Evans’s bill. “There’s a one-stop shop for guidance on how to operate, guidance on what the product should look like, guidance on, you know, recalls and consumer complaints and just general information, as opposed to several different … government agencies with different processes and different approaches.”

Other related bills floating around focus on cannabis delivery to homes and businesses, rules for delivery license applicants and issue 200 conditional licenses to those who want their own cannabis delivery business.

* The Tribune

Illinois has issued its first two social equity marijuana dispensary licenses, and at least one of them is expected to open by next week in Chicago’s River North area.

Green Rose Dispensary is soon to open on the site of the old Carson’s Ribs restaurant at Ontario and Wells streets, one of the most prominent locations in the city. The state also issued a license to open to Ivy Hall, a boutique dispensary in Wicker Park, but it has not announced when it will open. […]

The wealthy and connected owners of Green Rose — GRI Holdings, Inc., — also include restaurateur Phil Stefani and former CTA executive John Trotta. Consultants on the project were Ross Morreale, co-founder of downstate Ataraxia cultivation center, and Jay Steward, former head of the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation, which controls marijuana licensing for the state.

GRI qualified for the state’s social equity designation, which comes with bonus points for license applications, by hiring at least six employees who qualify for social equity by coming from neighborhoods with high rates of poverty or marijuana arrests, or who had prior minor cannabis convictions.

* Sun-Times

With a deadline to open their doors this spring, minority marijuana business entrepreneurs will have an $8.75 million pool of state-backed loans, state officials announced Thursday.

The state Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity will release the funds to more than 30 businesses with “social equity” licenses to grow, sell, process or transport cannabis and related products, with firms eligible for up to $500,000 at zero interest for 18 months. […]

The 35 businesses that were awaiting word on their applications for loans under a previous loan program — which offered below-market interest rates from banks — will be eligible for the Cannabis Social Equity Loan program. Loan funds used for a range of key expenses, such as rent, payroll, utility bills and other costs won’t have to be repaid, said Emily Bolton, spokeswoman for the commerce department.

The announcement comes less than a week after Vargas and other would-be minority pot entrepreneurs told the audience at a City Club luncheon that as many as eight out of 10 social equity license holders would probably miss a March deadline to have their businesses up and running. Entrepreneurs who haven’t secured all necessary permits, found a permanent location, ordered inventory and purchased equipment and other signs of viability by March risk losing their license. The costs of starting a craft growing operation can top $2 million, Vargas said.

* More…

  5 Comments      


Money woes, spending blunders and a widely ignored state law

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

State Rep. Tim Ozinga (R-Mokena) made the classic blunder of not focusing on one election at a time. But his flub does give us an excuse to look at a few fundraising issues.

It’s been no secret that Ozinga wanted to be the next House Republican leader. But he hasn’t really been involved in many House Republican races this year and then, the day before Election Day, all of a sudden reported giving his own campaign fund a million dollars.

As I pointed out to my newsletter subscribers last week, that money could’ve really helped some suburban or Downstate candidates who struggled to raise money and then lost. House Republican Leader Jim Durkin relied on the word of billionaire Ken Griffin that he’d have plenty of money for the fall campaign. But when Griffin left Illinois in a huff over rival billionaire Richard Uihlein opposing his efforts to nominate Republican Richard Irvin for governor, that commitment was discarded.

The Republicans’ fundraising base has badly eroded over the years. It has either aged out and/or moved to warmer climes and more hospitable politics, like Florida and Arizona. Once those folks leave, they just don’t care anymore (unless they’re getting paid, like Dan Proft, who spent millions of Uihlein’s money to help Darren Bailey). Adequate, reliable and younger replacements have not yet been found. Bailey winning the primary probably discouraged potential contributors from seeing a path to any significant wins this year.

This problematic fundraising trend has been going on for quite a few years. The wealthy Bruce Rauner exploited it to his own advantage by handing out money before, during and after his 2014 gubernatorial bid. After Rauner lost reelection and split for Florida, Griffin stepped in, until he lost the Irvin race and split for Florida.

So it’s either jump into the far-right political bed with Uihlein, or deal with the GOP’s stark fiscal reality and scramble every day to raise a few bucks here and there. It’s no wonder that Durkin retired. It’s just not worth the hassle.

Anyway, there is most definitely a void in the Republican Party structure that wealthy people like Ozinga can exploit, if only he had pitched in more during the last election instead of waiting to plunk down cash during the leadership race.

And while billionaire Uihlein didn’t give money to Durkin, he did fund a group called Common Sense Reforms independent expenditure committee. As I’ve told you before, it’s run by some Illinois Policy Institute honchos, including John Tillman.

According to a State Board of Elections website search, the group reported spending $1.9 million since early October.

Uihlein used the group in much the same way he helped Bailey through Proft’s independent expenditure committee, People Who Play by the Rules PAC. He gave a few bucks to Bailey, but most of his cash went to Proft.

Instead of concentrating the Uihlein cash on some winnable races, though, Common Sense Reforms scattered the spending among 18 House contests, with almost all of the districts receiving about the same amount of mail. I’m not sure if their spending was enough to move the needle in any individual races, but Uihlein and Tillman might have created some good will among the very small handful who won.

And, finally, a recent complaint filed against Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie’s campaign highlights a campaign finance law that’s being almost completely ignored in Illinois.

State law requires any candidates who receive 33% of their funding from a single person or group to disclose the name of the “sponsoring entity” on their state paperwork.

In McConchie’s case, the sponsoring entity was Uihlein, who contributed $2.1 million to McConchie’s personal campaign committee in the third quarter, or 78% of his total.

A spokesperson for the Board of Elections says that candidates don’t have to disclose their sponsoring entities on their “paid for by” advertising disclaimers, although one attorney I consulted disagrees.

But just think of all the candidates with sponsoring entities this year who didn’t disclose it. Irvin received tens of millions of dollars from Griffin. Uihlein has been Bailey’s sponsoring entity all year long. Kari Steele’s Democratic primary bid for Cook County assessor was almost totally funded by the Operating Engineers Local 150-connected Fight Back Fund’s million-dollar contribution.

Strengthening the law to make clear that campaigns have to disclose their sponsors in their advertising probably wouldn’t work. Uihlein and Proft could’ve just set up an entity called “I love Darren Bailey,” or something. Money always seems to find a way around regulations.

  5 Comments      


Republicans assess the damage

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jake Griffin at the Daily Herald

“Everybody said this election was about crime and inflation,” said Tim Schneider, the state GOP chairman from 2014 to 2021. “But suburban women voted pro-choice, and they voted on the abortion issue, which I believe sunk us.” […]

“Until so many Republican voters stop looking as if they accept Trump as their savior, these elections are destined to go down the toilet for us,” said Arlen Gould, a former staffer on many high-profile Illinois GOP campaigns. “And it’s never going to come back as long as we’re a party of election deniers and grievances.” […]

Gould believes in many cases, any stigma attached to the Republican Party was earned by many of the party’s long-held platforms.

“We’re on the wrong side of history with abortion, gay marriage and LGBTQ rights. We’re wrong,” he said. “And what are we offering now? What are our programs? What do we stand for other than negativity?”

* Rick Pearson at the Tribune

The GOP losses symbolize a political party that has failed to adapt to the changing diverse demographics of the suburbs, moving from a message of social moderation and fiscal conservatism to a rigid-right ideology that is aging along with its dwindling base. […]

”We had lots of really great candidates” who were “constantly attacked by the Democrats on abortion, made-up issues and alleged extremism,” [ILGOP Chair Don Tracy] said. “In the coming days/weeks, we will be doing a deeper analysis on the elections and will share our thoughts on how best to move forward.” […]

Unofficial returns showed Bailey received about 37.5% of the vote in Lake County while the official count showed Rauner got 58% of the county’s ballots eight years ago. This year, Pritzker got nearly 60% of the county’s votes, according to unofficial returns.

An AP VoteCast survey of Illinois general election voters found suburban voters representing 49% of the state’s vote and supporting Pritzker 57% to 37% for Bailey. Suburban women, always a key demographic in statewide races, cast 26% of Illinois’ votes for governor and they went 61% to 31% for Pritzker, the survey showed. […]

Durkin noted his votes in favor of ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment and a previous proposal to ban assault weapons as examples of positions on “commonsense issues” in the voter-rich and increasingly Democratic-leaning suburbs.

Leader Durkin still doesn’t get it, or isn’t publicly admitting it. His party’s official hardcore stance on abortion has ruined them in the suburbs. And that started well before Donald Trump was elected president.

…Adding… I didn’t see this story, so I stand corrected on Durkin

Durkin specifically urged Illinois Republicans to rethink the politics of guns, abortion, and gay rights.

“Whoever succeeds me, we need to do more to not take these strident positions on issues related to firearms, to issues of reproductive health, issues relating to the gay and lesbian community. There are many people who feel very strong about those issues who would vote for Republicans,” Durkin said.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Open thread

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Happy Monday folks. What’s going on in Illinois today?

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Morning briefing

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* This has aged well…


* Here’s a quick roundup to start your day….

More to come!

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Live coverage

Monday, Nov 14, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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*** UPDATED x1 *** Saturday post-campaign updates: McCombie has 23 votes for Leader; Mazzochi tries to invalidate mail ballots; Greenwood opponent declares victory

Saturday, Nov 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rep. Tony McCombie (R-Savanna) appears to have 23 votes for House Republican Leader, which is more than enough to win the spot. She’s also backed by retiring Leader Jim Durkin

Eastern Bloc member Rep. Dan Caulkins issued a statement yesterday claiming this was all fake news and then demanded a more open process.

* Meanwhile, Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst) is sending canvassers to what appear to be Democrats who are on record as voting by mail to ask them if they really did vote by mail. If they say they didn’t vote by mail, then they’re asked to sign an affidavit attesting to that. Trouble is, if they do sign that affidavit, they or someone in their household might ultimately be subjected to prosecution for voter fraud. As we saw with the David Krupa case, people can be convinced to sign forms that they don’t quite understand…

Mazzochi is currently trailing Democrat Jenn Ladisch Douglass by 174 votes, 21,572 to 21,398. The trend is not her friend, hence the affidavit push.

Check out the third dot point in the instructions excerpt…

A few days ago, Douglass claimed on Facebook that Mazzochi’s supporters were attempting to disrupt the counting process

I have heard reports that supporters of my opponent are trying to disrupt the DuPage County Clerk’s office while they do their very important work of counting every properly cast vote. I ran for this office because people want rational, common-sense leadership. We do not need local extremists taking a page out of former President Trump’s failed handbook by disrupting and disputing the vote-counting process and need to let the Clerk’s office do their work without interference from protestors or my opponent.

*** UPDATE *** House Speaker Chris Welch’s committee…

Mazzochi Campaign Working to Disenfranchise Voters in Dupage County

Democrats in the Illinois House released the following statement regarding trick tactics on behalf of Republicans to discount votes:

It has come to our attention that Deanne Mazzochi and DuPage County Republicans are taking a page directly from Donald Trump’s election denier playbook by attempting to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters by tricking them into signing an affidavit indicating they did not vote by mail. They are disguising themselves as volunteers who are assessing the effectiveness of vote-by-mail in DuPage County, and have been instructed to not overtly tell the voter that they are working for a Republican candidate. This is a disgusting and despicable attempt by Deanne Mazzochi to disenfranchise voters.

“We want to warn all voters who live in the 45th District to be on the lookout for this scam. If someone comes to your door presenting themselves in this manner, you should immediately call the DuPage County Clerk.

“Democrats for the Illinois House is calling on Representative Mazzochi and DuPage County Republicans to immediately halt their Trumpian tactics to overturn legal votes, and instead commit to accepting the results whatever they may be.

In the meantime, there are voters who had their vote-by-mail ballots rejected, and they will need to sign an affidavit to have those ballots restored and counted. We hope those voters are given an opportunity to have their votes counted.

* In other legislative campaign news

The Associated Press has called three of the four state House races in southwest Illinois. The AP has not called the Rep. LaToya Greenwood-Kevin Schmidt race. Schmidt, a Republican, was leading Greenwood, the Democratic incumbent, by about 6,000 votes with 71% of the precincts reporting in the House of Representatives 114th District, according to unofficial returns reported by the AP.

Schmidt has claimed the victory based on complete but unofficial results reported by St. Clair County and East St. Louis, according to Travis Akin, the campaign manager for Schmidt. […]

Schmidt had 18,949 votes and Greenwood had 16,627 votes in 111 precincts, according to election results reviewed by the News-Democrat. In 86 precincts in the St. Clair County election results, Schmidt had 18,758 votes and Greenwood had 11,716. In 25 precincts in the East St. Louis election results, Schmidt had 191 votes and Greenwood had 4,911.

One pickup for the House Republicans and it was in the East St. Louis district. You may recall, however, that some Black leaders in that area filed suit against the district’s new map.

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Veterans Day updates: McCombie, Curran likely in; Butler out; SAFE-T Act talks continue

Friday, Nov 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I was told this morning that Rep. McCombie currently has enough votes…


Note the time stamp on Tina’s tweet from last night. Somebody else claimed a scoop on the story this morning, several hours after Sfondeles popped it.

* Also, since I saw it mentioned online today, subscribers were told yesterday that Sen. John Curran has rounded up more than enough votes to depose current Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie.

* Rep. Tim Butler (R-Springfield) announced early this morning that he plans to “resign from the House before the start of the 103rd General Assembly to work full-time with the Illinois Railroad Association.” Flashback…


* Tina Sfondeles with an update on SAFE-T Act negotiations

So far, the sponsors and supporters are not interested in “massive substantial changes,” another source with direct knowledge of the negotiations told the Sun-Times.

Supporters of the bill are working to clarify provisions they claim have been “willfully misinterpreted,” including some drafting errors.

The working group met for three hours on Wednesday and again on Thursday. Gordon-Booth said the conversations are “robust.”

“A lot of areas, we have a consensus,” Gordon-Booth said. “On some other areas, there’s some work left to do.”

The reforms have already been signed into law, but Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Democratic lawmakers had pledged to look at any “clarifications” they needed to make in the veto session. […]

“Many of the things that were said about the SAFE-T Act were lies. Hard stop. Flat out lies,” Gordon-Booth said. “All the while, we’re still working with law enforcement to strengthen and clarify what is the intent of the original language from January 2021.”

The only way we’d have seen “massive” changes would’ve been if Republicans had swept. Instead, the GOP endlessly flogged the issue (oftentimes untruthfully) and still got thumped almost everywhere except for one seat in the Illinois Senate and one in the House. Also, I wouldn’t expect any floor action next week in either chamber.

…Adding… I was asked by the Conference of Women Legislators to post this flier…

…Adding… DeVore waited far too long to criticize Proft, but here we go

Let them fight.

* A few more…

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Even more news

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Illinois National Guard’s 144th Army Band will play us out

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - More news

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - This just in…

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Some updates

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Leader Durkin begins exit interviews: “People look at Republicans as extremists”

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I scheduled mine for next week…


* From Brian’s interview

We were overwhelmed on Tuesday, and I believe greatly because people look at Republicans as extremist, and also they associate Republicans with Donald Trump, and also the US Supreme Court. I mean, there was a lot of factors that were in play. But at the end of the day, Illinois voters rejected us. And it was a, it was a tough night. And we, I hope we learned something from this, that you have to be able to expand and not just, you know, disqualify somebody because he may have a different position than most, than conservative Republicans on the Second Amendment, reproductive rights, or even same sex marriage and gay and lesbian rights. I mean, we’re losing a lot of people, a lot of people who otherwise thoroughly believe in the Republican positions on public safety, spending our budget, spending in our budget, but we’ve completely turned our back on them because we disagree with them on social issues. And you know what? It’s addition, it’s not subtraction. And if we continue on with this approach, and just nominate people in the most important races that appeal to the far right. We’re going to be in the same, we’ll be, we’ll be having the same elections over and over again.

Discuss.

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Question of the day

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Finally, a post about the Associated Press that isn’t negative. Hooray! AP Votecaster interviewed voters all over the country, including in Illinois. It’s not actually an “exit poll” because it was conducted over eight days

AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey was conducted for eight days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The survey is based  on interviews with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files. Participants were contacted by phone, mail and online, and had the opportunity to take the survey by phone or online. All surveys are subject to multiple sources of error, including sampling, question wording and order, and nonresponse.

* From the AP’s interactive tool


The AP’s survey of national congressional races found that 43 percent of men backed Democratic candidates while 53 percent of men backed Republican candidates. That wasn’t the case here. Pritzker won men four years ago, too.

* The Question: After clicking here and looking at the results in the governor’s race and the US Senate contest, and after clicking here and looking at the congressional results, what stood out the most? Explain.

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Post-campaign notebook

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

In January, a record number of Democrats are set to be sworn in as state representatives in the Illinois House, giving Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch a supermajority not even enjoyed by his notorious predecessor and claiming its first political victim — now-outgoing House Minority Leader Jim Durkin.

Aided by a newly drawn map of district boundaries, Welch’s Democrats say they racked up wins in as many as 77, and possibly 78, of the House’s 118 seats. That would best the modern high-water mark of 74 seats set in 2018 by Democrats led at the time by now-indicted ex-Speaker Michael Madigan, the longest-serving state House speaker in American history. […]

The final tally will likely reduce Harmon’s current Democratic majority from 41 of 59 senators to about 39 or 40, depending on when results are confirmed over the coming days. Democrats will easily exceed the 71 votes needed to control a supermajority in the House and the 36 in the Senate to exercise on issues ranging from borrowing money to overriding a veto to putting proposed constitutional amendments before voters.

Meanwhile, the AP sticks to its outdated numbers and spreads misinformation

According to vote tabulations by The Associated Press, by Wednesday afternoon, House Democrats had picked up one seat, matching their 2021-22 total of 74 votes

As another example, on election night, the AP was only reporting suburban Cook County numbers in Sen. Bill Cunningham’s race. They finally incorporated the Chicago results, but have since appear to have stopped counting. The AP claims that with “99% of precincts reporting,” Cunningham (D-Chicago) leads Christine Shanahan McGovern 53-47. He’s actually ahead 59-41.

If you’re gonna set yourself up as the ultimate factual authority, then, please, put the work in, or at least run a disclaimer.

* Yep


The AP still has Sheehan ahead by 68 votes.

* Speaking of mail, what DeVore fails to mention is that Donald Trump has actively discouraged mail-in ballots for years. The Illinois Republican Party pioneered mail-in voting years ago. It was jettisoned because rank-and-file voters now hate it. It’s truly hurting their party’s candidates and they need to get over themselves

Also, with or without mail-in ballots, DeVore woulda got clobbered. I mean, c’mon.

* Politico on the scramble to replace retiring House GOP Leader Jim Durkin

State Rep. Tim Ozinga, who was elected in 2020 and has been angling for the position for months, has already caused concern among some Republicans. Ozinga committed to helping the House Republican Majority)this cycle as finance chair and said he would personally give $2 million to the fund, according to a person familiar with the arrangement.

But Ozinga didn’t end up committing anything after all. He gave more to the Senate Republicans than he did to the House Republicans.

Ozinga, whose family runs a well-known concrete company, sat on the sidelines at a time when Republican candidates could have used the financial help. But he did create something he calls the “Big Tent Coalition,” which provides candidates with services on the campaign trail. Ozinga charged a 15 percent fee for the work.

The day before the election, Ozinga also deposited $1 million into his political account, maybe in an effort to show members he has money to share. But some saw it as an insult because it wasn’t used to help any candidates win office.

Another potential candidate for GOP House leader is state Rep. Martin McLaughin. He’s also been in the House since 2020 and before that was a Barrington Village president. Away from his public job, he runs a pension firm, a position that could put him under some scrutiny. He has opposed pension consolidation legislation and has employed a lobbyist in Springfield for his business in order to influence legislation for his firm’s benefit.

Yikes.

* Golden Horsehoe winner Candy Dogood in comments

Speaking of 2024 speculation, it’d be nice if reporters would recognize that JB cannot state his intention to run for president without triggering an immediate requirement to file with the FEC and to comply with quite a few laws regarding what he can do, how he can do it, and how he spends money.

So, he can’t answer in the affirmative. There’s also no legal difference between an “exploratory committee” and a regular presidential campaign committee, they just call it exploratory so it’s less embarrassing when the candidate decides not to run.

JB benefits from others talking about the possibility both in Illinois and nationally, but it’s not hard hitting journalism to ask him a question that he can’t legally answer in the affirmative at this time.

If he is ever planning on running for President a random reporter at a political event is not getting the scoop by pressing him on the issue and a state governor giving a non answer about running for president isn’t news and isn’t important. It’s also lazy to keep asking him about it.

If a journalist wants to have fun with this topic, the questions should tie back into his administration, “Do you think that the staffing difficulties and contempt of court charges at your Department of Children and Family services could detract from your national image if it was reported on nationwide?”

Asking him a yes or no question solely about running for president is a waste of everyone’s time.

It is also very unlikely that Biden would ditch his VP, and if Biden decides not to run we probably won’t hear about that affirmatively for at least another 12 months.

The Governor has a lot that needs to he addressed that his administration is directly responsible for, let’s press him on those issues and why they seem to be lingering with no one being held accountable for the failure to address them.

* Last February, Lake County Clerk Robin O’Connor, elected four years ago as a Democrat, announced she was switching parties to run as a Republican. She’s losing 54-46 to Democrat Anthony Vega. All countywide Democrats are winning. And only 5 of 19 seemingly victorious county board candidates are Republicans. JB Pritzker won the county with 51 percent in 2018. He’s winning the county this year with 59 percent.

Pritzker won DuPage County four years ago by two points, with 48 percent. He’s winning it this year by 15 points, 56-41.

Pritzker lost McHenry County four years ago by 10 points and he’s cutting his losing margin this year in half.

One potential kinda/sorta bright spot for Bailey is Will County, which Pritzker won 50-44 four years ago. Pritzker’s winning by a lesser amount so far this year, 50-47.

* Sen. Darren Bailey is currently leading in one Chicago ward, the 41st, way up on the city’s Northwest Side. The ward is the home to a lot of first responders. But the lead is small, 9,022-8,964, so that could get wiped out when more mail-in/provisional ballots are counted. Pritzker won the 41st Ward four years ago 51-43.

* Isabel’s roundup

    * ADDED: Rep. Theresa Mah | Asian Americans are making a big mark in Illinois politics: With these numbers, Asian Americans come closer to equitable representation for the state’s fastest-growing population. We’ll be able to advocate for our communities so that it will not be possible to make policies “about us without us” and we will more effectively fight for resources our constituents need.

    * NBC 5 | ‘Ok Then’: Pritzker Details What Was Said in His Election Night Call With Bailey: “I got on the phone… I said, ‘Senator Bailey,’ he said, ‘Governor, I want to congratulate you.’ And I said, ‘Well, thank you very much. That’s very kind of you.’ And he said, ‘Okay, then.’”

    * Daily Herald | No red wave here: Democratic congressional candidates won big in the suburbs: Despite projections of a red wave that would push Republicans into office in Illinois and across the country, Democrats — nearly all of them incumbents — swept all eight suburban congressional seats in Tuesday’s election.

    * Daily Herald | Syed’s defeat of Bos in 51st House District bucked trend of incumbent victories in Northwest suburbs : “I’m feeling very, very grateful,” she said Wednesday. “I think we laid it all out there. We communicated our message. We wanted to let constituents in this district know what exactly I would fight for in the state legislature, in our suburban district and the place that I’ve called home, and a place that I was born and raised in, and I have a lot of care for this community.”

    * WTTW | South Side Voters Speak Up for Trees in Jackson Park and South Shore. Is Anyone Listening?: Should the city of Chicago stop cutting down trees in Jackson Park and the area surrounding the South Shore Cultural Center? […] An overwhelming number of ballots — 82% — were cast in the affirmative, according to unofficial totals from the Chicago Board of Elections.

    * Tribune | Progressive challenger Brandon Johnson lands another big union endorsement: An influential labor group with ties to the Chicago Teachers Union announced its endorsement of Brandon Johnson for mayor on Wednesday, adding to the list of labor organizations opting to back the Cook County commissioner over other progressives, including U.S. Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García.

    * Jerusalem Post | Alarming rise in American Jewish children’s complaints of antisemitism at schools: The Israeli-American Council’s (IAC) School Watch initiative reported a rise of hundreds of percent of complaints on behalf of Jewish children on antisemitism in schools, one year after the watchdog’s founding. School Watch was designed to “contribute to a safe school environment and reduce incidents of antisemitism, anti-Zionism, national origin discrimination and hate,” according to its mission statement.

    * The Daily Beast | The Six Biggest Takeaways From Musk’s Groveling Call With Twitter Advertisers:Amid a mass exodus of advertisers, “Chief Twit” Elon Musk took to his newly purchased social media platform on Wednesday to assure companies that Twitter will remain a safe space for their brands. In an hour-long livestream, known as a “Twitter Space,” Musk cajoled advertisers with promises of robust content moderation and account verification practices. The billionaire faces a formidable challenge: shoring up Twitter’s revenues without alienating the highly vocal band of right-wing users who initially celebrated the acquisition.

    * Politico | Crypto kingpin bet a fortune on Democrats. Now he’s lost it all.: Crypto megadonor Sam Bankman-Fried helped bankroll Democrats’ overperformance in the midterms. But any friends he may have had in Washington won’t be there for him as his crumbling business empire threatens to torpedo the entire digital currency market.

    * FiveThirtyEight | Abortion Rights Are Reshaping American Politics: Results are still pending in some key states like Arizona, but Democrats won many contests that will shape abortion access for the next few years — and in some cases, much longer. Abortion-rights supporters managed to enshrine the right to abortion in three state constitutions, including the crucial state of Michigan, where a near-total ban on abortion from 1931 has been tangled up in court battles for months. And supporters notched another consequential win in Kentucky, where a majority of the state’s voters opposed a ballot measure that would have explicitly clarified that abortion rights was not protected under the state constitution.

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*** UPDATED x1 *** DCEO offers direct forgiveable loans for cannabis social equity participants

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Governor JB Pritzker and the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) today announced that $8.75 million in Direct Forgivable Loans fully financed by the State will be made available to all conditionally-approved social equity loan applicants in order to provide immediate access to capital. Pending the completion of a simplified documentation process, forgivable loan amounts between $50,000-$500,000 will be released immediately.

“Equity has always been at the core of our cannabis legalization process. It’s why we expunged hundreds of thousands low-level cannabis charges and instituted the Cannabis Social Equity Loan Program. But I know that if we want to create a truly equitable cannabis industry in Illinois, we must give our business owners the resources they need to grow—both figuratively and literally,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “That’s why we are launching this Direct Forgivable Loan Program to provide a much-needed jumpstart for social equity applicants who’ve faced hurdles in pursuit of capital funding. This $8.75 million will help our social equity licensees open their doors for business—a major step towards creating a prosperous cannabis industry here in Illinois.”

The Cannabis Social Equity Loan Program is a first-of-its-kind program that launched in the summer of 2021 with the goal of providing low-interest loans to social equity licensees through a partnership with lending institutions. Program participants have encountered significant delays in receiving capital through financial institutions due to the complexities of navigating a new industry that remains illegal under federal law, as well as institutions’ fiduciary, regulatory responsibilities and underwriting standards that are set independent of the program.

In response to feedback from participants, and out of an unwavering commitment to increasing equity in the cannabis industry, DCEO’s new Direct Forgivable Loan Program will make funding from the state available to all eligible program participants regardless of their original loan application status with a lending partner. Interested participants can continue to pursue funding through the original loan program, while also receiving the new Direct Forgivable Loan.

“In Illinois, we are striving to create an ecosystem for cannabis entrepreneurs that prioritizes those who have been adversely impacted by the war on drugs,” said Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton. “The creation of the Direct Forgivable Loan Program is a critical step in that mission. We are forging ahead to support social equity licensees’ businesses so that Illinoisans can thrive alongside this growing industry.”

“Creating a more equitable cannabis industry in Illinois is the driving force behind the State’s loan programs and today’s announcement will accelerate our vision by making immediate capital available to social equity licensees,” said DCEO Director Sylvia I. Garcia. “Looking ahead we will continue working closely with licensees as we implement the new Direct Forgivable Loan Program and incorporate program improvements for future rounds of funding.”

A total of $8.75 million will be available through the new Direct Forgivable Loan Program. The following loan amounts are available per participant based on the business type:

    • Craft Growers: $500,000
    • Infusers: $250,000
    • Transporters: $50,000

Because DCEO has already received significant documentation from program participants, the additional documentation requirements for a direct forgivable loan are minimal to allow for prompt disbursal of funds. The forgivable loan has an 18-month grace period with no payments or interest accrued to provide businesses with flexibility.

Loan forgiveness will be provided to recipients upon receiving documentation of a broad array of eligible expenses currently accrued or accrued during the loan period, including rent, payroll, utilities, inventory, debt, regulatory expenses, legal fees, equipment and much more. The main differences between the programs are as follows:

Looking Ahead: Continued Collaboration with Licensees
Through the original loan program, social equity applicants were conditionally approved to pursue loan funding directly with lender partners. While conditional approval did not guarantee funding through the financial institutions, the program was designed to incentivize lending to social equity licensees to the greatest extent possible. As part of the structure, DCEO committed to funding a portion of each loan– thereby assuming a portion of the risk and making lending more attractive to lenders.

With many applicants still in the process of seeking loans through the original program, DCEO will continue to work closely with partners in an effort to secure loan funding for applicants who wish to complete the loan application process. Any loan funding provided through the original program would be in addition to the Direct Forgivable Loan funded by the State. In addition to providing additional capital, securing a loan from a financial institution can help add to the legitimacy of the social equity applicant’s business model and help attract capital from additional investors.

*** UPDATE *** Press release…

The Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation (IDFPR) announced today it has issued the first full adult use cannabis dispensing organization licenses to social equity applicants. IDFPR issued a social equity applicant license to Ivy Hall, located at 1720 N. Damen Ave. in Chicago in Cook County, which is 61% African American owned. IDFPR issued a second social equity applicant license to Green Rose, located at 612 North Wells Street in Chicago, which is 15% Latino-owned and 2.5% African American owned.

“In the coming months, Illinois is set to more than double the number of cannabis dispensaries, with every single new license holder being a social equity applicant,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “With equity as our north star, today marks the first step for retail cannabis operations to begin repairing the devastating harm caused by the failed War on Drugs on communities of color. Congratulations to Green Rose and Ivy Hall – and we look forward to welcoming many more social equity-owned dispensaries to our great state.”

“This is but the first two of almost 200 new full dispensary licenses IDFPR anticipates issuing in the coming months, and we’re proud to welcome Green Rose and Ivy Hall to the most equitable cannabis market of any state in the country,” said Mario Treto, Jr., Secretary of the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation. “IDFPR is committed to ensuring a diverse and well-regulated cannabis industry in Illinois, and we look forward to welcoming even more entrepreneurs in the time ahead.”

To date, IDFPR has issued 192 conditional adult use cannabis dispensing organization licenses from a series of lotteries in 2021 and 2022. Full licenses will be issued as the Department receives and reviews the applications for the full licenses, before completing the mandatory on-site inspection as required by the Cannabis Regulation and Tax Act. Of the businesses selected through the lottery process, 41% are majority Black-owned, 7% are majority White-owned, and 4% are majority Latino-owned, while 38% of awardees did not disclose the race of their owners. To open, applicants still need to receive agent and agent-in-charge badges, create an account with the state traceability system, and place their first order for cannabis products.

  15 Comments      


What’s next for the SAFE-T Act?

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NBC 5

The SAFE-T act may not have been on the ballot during the 2022 Midterm Election, but it played a big role. Now that Election Day is over in Illinois, attention is turning to the new law set to take effect early next year, but what exactly it will look like by then remains unclear.

Facing mounting criticism from a variety of groups and officials over provisions of the “SAFE-T Act” that will ban cash bail in the state beginning on Jan. 1, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said changes could soon be in store.

“There’s a lot of work that’s been done by the General Assembly over the last number of months and working groups,” he told reporters Wednesday, one day after securing his second term in office. “And so they’re going to bring that to the veto session and I’ll be watching carefully. I’ve made my thoughts clear. And we’ll see if we can get something done during the veto session to address the changes that we ought to be making.”

* The People’s Lobby and some allies pushed back hard on that TV news framing…

Midterm elections in Illinois have shown that the majority of voters were not swayed by far-right Republican fear mongering around the SAFE-T Act and the end of money bond in Illinois.

Not only did Governor Pritzker win a resounding victory over State Senator Darren Bailey, who made attacking Pritzker on crime central to his campaign, but suburban seats that republicans were trying to flip remained blue: State Senator Gillespie (D-Arlington Heights), State Senator Ellman (D-Naperville) and State Representative Stava-Murray (D-Naperville) all beat their republican opponents.

Despite facing a deluge of racist disinformation ads funded by Florida resident Dan Proft and billionaire Trump supporter Richard Uihlein about the “end of days” that would come as a result of the end of money bond, voters weren’t fooled. Illinoisans voted in record numbers during this midterm election and they overwhelmingly showed their support for candidates who prioritize public safety and are committed to creating a more just pretrial system.

“My constituents are concerned about crime, but they understand that the current system isn’t working,” said State Senator Gillespie. “Criminalizing poverty hasn’t made us safer–if anything it’s made things worse by feeding the cycle of incarceration, joblessness and poverty.”

“Republicans know the facts and data about pretrial incarceration are on our side, so they tried to win people over by stoking fear and outrage,” said State Rep. Stava-Murray. “What they don’t understand is that Trumpian tactics don’t work in the suburbs. Here, people want politicians to give it to them straight, and the truth is that we all want to feel safe in our communities and we’ll continue to work with all stakeholders to achieve that goal. We all know we aren’t made any safer when a person accused of a crime languishes in jail because they can’t afford to pay a low bond or when wealth can buy the freedom of someone who may hurt someone while out on bond.”

The People’s Lobby supported Gillespie, Ellman and Stava-Murray on the ground, talking to voters at the doors for months leading up to the election. We knocked on the doors of 6,800 people and called 9,600 people. What we heard across communities was largely the same: once people understood more about how the current system of pretrial incarceration works, and heard more about what the Pretrial Fairness Act actually does, they supported the end of money bond.

“I’ve lived in Arlington Heights for 20 years, and I know what safety looks like for my community: it’s fully funded mental health programs, affordable housing, and thriving schools. It is not locking people up and throwing away the key,” said People’s Lobby member and longtime Arlington Heights resident Peg Lane. “Over the last few months, I have knocked hundreds of doors, and tonight’s results have confirmed what I already knew: my neighbors and I can see right through the fake newspapers and internet ads that have been bombarding us. We support the Pretrial Fairness Act provision of the SAFE-T Act and the legislators who voted for it.“

“Four years ago, the suburbs saw democrats’ win as part of the Blue Wave that grew in response to the election of Donald Trump,” said State Senator Ellman. “We rejected his views then, and we rejected them again in these midterms. Despite dark money churning out misinformation and fear, voters clearly weren’t fooled.”

They’re having a press conference today.

* Meanwhile

The McHenry County State’s Attorney’s Office was selected as lead counsel on SAFE-T Act litigation.

The selection came from the 62 other state’s attorneys who had filed similar suits challenging the constitutionality of the SAFE-T Act to litigate on their behalf.

Also selected as lead counsel were Kankakee County, Kendall County, Sangamon County, Vermillion County, and Will County.

As the case will be decided on legal issues, the parties have agreed to an expedited briefing schedule on cross-motions for summary judgment. A summary judgment occurs when a court decides the outcome of a case based on legal arguments without empaneling a jury, swearing in witnesses, or hearing evidence in open court.

  26 Comments      


Do better, AP

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’ve been grumpily informing subscribers about the Associated Press’ performance for two days, but if you go to the New York Times site and pull up its list of the county-by-county vote on the proposed constitutional amendment and scroll down, you’ll see a bunch of counties that have not yet been tabulated by the Associated Press

If you go to Kane County’s website, the results are there. The AP is just not reporting them.

* The AP’s coverage of this year’s election results has been shoddy, at best. It’s far behind in way too many contests. They have, for instance, Kane County results for some local races and other top statewide races, but not for the proposed amendment.

They are also claiming that 100 percent of precincts are reporting in the 45th House District and that GOP Rep. Deanne Mazzochi is ahead by 157 votes. As of right around 9 o’clock this morning, Rep. Mazzochi was trailing by 6 votes. In an age when election denial is so intense, the AP has got to stop doing stuff like this.

It’s not a new problem, either. Back in 2014, you may recall, the AP stopped posting updated tallies in the super-tight state treasurer’s race. Scott Kennedy was generating up to the minute numbers, which I posted here, but no other reporters used them so their stories were just plain wrong for weeks. It was embarrassing to watch.

* Back to the Workers’ Rights Amendment…


If the union total is correct, then the Workers’ Rights Amendment has enough votes to win.

  15 Comments      


Despite Darren Bailey dropping the idea, a handful of people still want to secede from Illinois

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’ve been getting several emails from Google lately…

xxxx (xxxx@gmail.com) is requesting access to a file via an old link, which is no longer valid due to a security update. Share the file with this person directly, or copy and send the new link in sharing settings.

The link is to this image

* I’m pretty sure the interest in that older map has something to do with this story

Illinois residents wanting to separate their communities from Chicago and Cook County is nothing new in the political world, but three counties took things one step further during the midterm elections, passing non-binding resolutions indicating that they want their elected officials to potentially explore seceding from the state.

These so-called “separation referendums” were on the ballot in Brown and Hardin counties, as well as a portion of Madison County.

The thrust behind the referendums was to allow the county board of each area to coordinate with other county boards to explore the possibility of seceding from Illinois due to the influence Chicago and Cook County have on the state’s political decisions.

Brown County, located in western Illinois, voted overwhelmingly in favor of the non-binding ballot question, with nearly three-in-four voters approving it. […]

Hardin County, located in southeastern Illinois, also voted on a similar measure and passed it. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the county has a population of 3,649 residents, making it the least-populated county in the state.

More

The [Brown] county board’s vice chairman Mike Yingling said a group of citizens petitioned to put the measure on the ballot. The decision directs the county to seek to join other counties who wish to cast off the influence of Cook County.

“If I recall, one of the proposals was that parts of downstate Illinois would become part of Iowa,” Yingling said. “And parts would become part of Missouri and parts become parts of Indiana and not a separate state.”

Since it passed, Yingling said the board now has more to add to its agenda.

“We’ll have to research that and see what that referendum mandates us to do,” Yingling said. “Which obviously just passed yesterday so we don’t know exactly what our requirements are going to be.”

Darren Bailey won Brown County with 82 percent of the vote. Sounds like a bunch of sore losers.

* From 2018

Longstanding political dialogue in Illinois is that downstate Illinois does not receive its fair share when it comes to a return on state funding and resources.

While there is not an equal funding distribution across the state, research by the Southern Illinois University Carbondale’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute shows that despite heavy rhetoric, the downstate region receives more than it pays into the state coffers. The best deals are received in central Illinois and Southern Illinois. […]

The research breaks the state’s 102 counties into six specific regions, including Cook County, a five-county suburban section that surrounds Cook County, and the 96 remaining downstate regions, which are subdivided into north, central, southwest and southern regions.

The research shows the south region receives $2.81 in state funds for every $1 generated. The central Illinois region of 50 counties receives $1.87 back for every $1.00 sent to Springfield. All of the downstate regions receive more from the state budget than they pay in taxes. By comparison, Cook County receives 90 cents for every $1, and the suburban counties only 53 cents for every $1 generated.

The study is here. And here’s the map

Discuss.

  68 Comments      


Rate Chuy Garcia’s mayoral announcement video

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Here you go

We’re not going to do a ton on the mayor’s race, but I thought you’d like to see this and weigh in.

  28 Comments      


Speaker Welch reacts to Leader Durkin stepping down

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Background is here if you need it. From House Speaker Chris Welch…

I want to congratulate and thank Leader Durkin on nine years of leading the Republicans in the Illinois House of Representatives. As leaders of our own respective parties, we of course have fundamental differences on policy, but we love Illinois the same and I know Leader Durkin worked passionately on behalf of those who elected him to serve.

I look forward to working with a new Republican leader as we head into the 103rd General Assembly. I’m hopeful to find opportunities to reach across the aisle, to mend some of the relationships that have been strained in this political climate, and to build on our common purpose as public servants for the people of Illinois.

  15 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - An update and a supplement to today’s edition

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

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Open thread

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* How are y’all doing today? Any Veterans Day plans?

  16 Comments      


Morning briefing

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* A 2024 preview?…


* Here’s a roundup to start your day…

* And Mr. Bigger has gone Hollywood on us…


More to come!

  8 Comments      


Live coverage

Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


  Comments Off      


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* When RETAIL Succeeds, Illinois Succeeds
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* Hexaware: Your Globally Local IT Services Partner
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* Hexaware: Your Globally Local IT Services Partner
* Pritzker to meet with Texas Dems as Trump urges GOP remaps (Updated)
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