Question of the day
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a Doug Truax e-mail entitled “Greetings from Florida”…
No, I am not in Florida.
But you know who is? My Republican primary opponent: Jim Oberweis.
While Oberweis is vacationing in the sun; I am criscrossing Illinois talking with voters about the importance of this election and the issues at hand.
If elected I will always put Illinois families first. You won’t have to worry about whether your Senator is busy vacationing in a different state or even VOTING in a different state (you can’t even make this up - Jim Oberweis’ wife is registered to vote in Florida NOT Illinois).
The accompanying photo…
* The Question: Caption?
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Rauner’s circulators: $2 per signature
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Somebody I know who had his resume posted on Monster.com was sent an e-mail from a recruiter that linked to this page…
Part-time Campaign Field Associate
Client: Arno Political Consulting
City: Joliet
State: IL
Category: Professional
Job Type: Part time
Description
What do Part-time Campaign Field Associates do?
As a Part-time Campaign Field Associate (Petition Circulator) you will play in integral role in a historical movement dedicated to reforming the Illinois Constitution.
On Election Day, Part-time Campaign Field Associates will travel to their assigned precinct and gather signatures from registered voters.
You will get paid $2 per signature. If you collect 100 signatures and 70 of them are valid you will be paid $200. Historically, petition signatures on election day have high validity rates, so it shouldn’t be a challenge to meet this goal.
After the first hundred signatures, you will get paid $2 per signature with a validity rate of 60% or higher.
Arno has been hired by Bruce Rauner to run his term limit constitutional amendment petition drive.
I sure wish there’d been jobs like this back when I was in college. That’s not bad money.
* More…
Is this for a good cause?
Yes!
This petition helps put an amendment to the Illinois Constitution on the November 4, 2014 ballot which will make Illinois State government more responsive to citizens.
The amendment limits those elected to the state house or state senate to 8 years total. The 8 years can be served in the Illinois house or senate alone, or any combination of the two, but no longer than 8 years total.
The amendment also decreases substantially the number of state senators from 59 to 41 while increasing slightly the number of Illinois house members from 118 to 123.
The amendment makes it harder for politicians to override a governor’s veto by raising that threshold from a 3/5 majority to a 2/3 majority in both the Illinois House and Senate. This reform will ensure the best interests of all Illinoisans are protected and curtail the power of narrow, partisan or special interests.
Help make our democracy great!
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No surge detected yet
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As subscribers know, We Ask America has been tracking early and absentee voting in the Republican primary this season.
The following chart breaks down who has already voted early or sent in an absentee GOP ballot and compares that to all voting in the 2010 Republican primary.
A Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted…
* So, as you can see, the percentage of historic Democrats participating in the GOP primary so far appears at first blush to be a bit higher than it was in the 2010 primary.
But, that’s not really what’s going on here.
* The percentage total of independents voting early in the Republican primary is down six points so far from the final 2010 total. Republican participation on the GOP primary is up about three points and Democratic participation in the Republican primary is also up about three from the final 2010 number.
In reality, while the final vote will skew slightly more Democratic (but balanced out by a slightly higher GOP base turnout), there is no surge detected here, just a six-point drop in interest by independents.
And as my pollster Chris Wieneke says, this could all correct itself by election day, when independents might come out in higher numbers.
Also, Democratic participation in the Republican primary could change on election day itself, when unions will be pushing their members to get out and vote. We’ll see, but a major crossover has never been attempted here.
Many of us know Democrats or independents taking Republican ballots for the first time, but, so far at least, it’s not showing up in the results.
* Perhaps more interesting, however, is that more Republican ballots have been cast so far, 49,010, than Democratic ballots, 45,905. Usually, Democratic primary turnout dwarfs Republican turnout. Four years ago, 915,726 votes were cast in the Democratic gubernatorial primary while 767,485 were cast in the GOP primary.
That’s likely a function of the cash spent on the GOP side and the lack of any cash spent on the D side. The most impact will be down-ballot. Who’s turning out in competitive House primaries, for instance?
* Related…
* Shearer: ‘We are not pulling back’ on pro-Dillard ads: While public sector unions that had been funding Shearer’s group are now pulling back, trade unions and other money is here for now. Last week’s money will go toward buying ads through mid-week and the Teamsters will give another day or two and then make a decision on a day by day basis how much money will go his way, he said.
* Public Union Urges Crossover Vote for Dillard
* AFL-CIO mailing goes after “Billionaire insider Bruce Rauner”
* Election messages were more mixed than assorted nuts in a can of Planters.
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Remap reform group raising big bucks
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Reboot writes about major fundraising by the Yes for Independent Maps group…
Topping the list is former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who donated $100,000 to the cause of taking from Illinois party leaders the privilege of drawing friendly districts for their members every 10 years.
The latest report, filed Tuesday, logs $638,500 for the week of March 4-11. It brings the total raised by Yes for Independent Maps to $1.2 million since Jan. 1.
Perhaps most remarkable about the reports, in addition to the amounts, is the diversity of donors on the list. It’s a mix of well known political names from both parties and numerous business leaders of various political persuasions.
There are many other prominent people who have signed on to the effort to take politics out of the legislative map-drawing process but whose names have not shown up in donation reports. That list includes Playboy CEO Christie Hefner and former Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. […]
Other prominent donors include real estate mogul Sam Zell, Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts and J.B. Pritzker ($50,000 each); former Lt. Gov. Corrine Wood and Tom Pritzker ($25,000 each), and best-selling author Scott Turow ($1,000). Earlier reports had included a $25,000 donation from former U.S. Senate candidate Blair Hull and CEO and horse racing executive Craig Duchossois.
* The group also has a new Internet video that’s kinda fun to watch…
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Matune attempts another self defense
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Republican House candidate Keith Matune, who’s running against Rep. Ron Sandack in the primary and is backed by Dan Proft, wrote an op-ed for the Illinois Review. His lede…
Like a lot of people I did some stupid things when I was in college and I’m truly sorry for the missteps I took.
OK, let’s stop right there.
Other than maybe anti-war, civil rights or even anti-abortion protesters, how many people do you know who’ve been arrested three times?
* He continues…
During this campaign those regrettable moments have become public. Like everyone, I have matured and have spent the last 20 years becoming a husband, father of four, Illinois Teacher of the Year, IHSA Coach of the Year, and School Board Member.
Trouble is, he told his school that he hadn’t been arrested on his job app.
Oops.
And that “Illinois Teacher of the Year” award actually came from the Constitutional Rights Foundation of Chicago, which does have a heavy-hitter board of directors.
* Matune was responding to a devastating IR column by Chris Robling…
He told Waubonsie, when applying to teach Illinois kids, he had never been arrested.
He lied on his other school applications. And on the Daily Herald candidate questionnaire. When the Daily Herald got the facts, he claimed his priors were expunged, even though — obviously — they are not. That’s another whopper.
He issued a press release in January that invoked the Illinois State Police to claim he had never been arrested. As a guy who once wore handcuffs in court, he knew that was false.
He claims gymnastics “Consensus All American” status. But he forgot to tell Purdue about his distinction. Its official website does not list him –- or any gymnast of his era — as “All American,” since Purdue did not field a Division 1 gymnastics team then.
The General Assembly, to which he thinks he should be elected, says ‘public indecency’ is a sex crime. Illinois public school teacher applicants must disclose all such findings. Perhaps most deeply troubling of all — Matune’s applications show that when he asked for exposure to our kids, he refused to tell the truth.
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* The Sun-Times goes into great detail about House Democratic mailers which attack Will Guzzardi, who’s running against Rep. Toni Berrios. For example…
This week, voters in the district received the latest in a series of ads alleging that Guzzardi favors going easy on sex offenders.
The new mailer adds an odd racial twist to this line of attack. It features a photo of a young white woman with manly hands clasping her bare shoulders. You can’t see the face of the person whose hands they are, but they’re obviously not the hands of a white person.
* Another example…
Gov. Pat Quinn professes neutrality, but a high-ranking Quinn appointee, former 1st Ward Ald. Manny Flores, appears in Toni Berrios campaign literature, urging people to “join me in voting” for her.
It would be interesting to ask Flores how he plans to vote for Toni Berrios since he moved from the Northwest Side, to the northwest suburbs, after quitting the City Council and joining the Quinn administration. Flores has been registered to vote in Park Ridge, miles from the 39th Illinois House District, since 2012.
* But they totally accept Guzzardi’s explanation about one of those attacks without question…
The attacks are based on an article that Guzzardi wrote for his college newspaper in 2006. He says the comment was taken out of context, doesn’t reflect his campaign’s stance and is an attempt by the incumbent to play off voter fears.
* Guzzardi links to the column on his own website…
In short, in this digital age of infinite proliferation of data, expungement is a fantasy. The blank slate it once offered to those convicted of minor offenses is more like the old whiteboard on my dorm room door: though you might try to wipe it clean, there will always be some traces of what used to be written there.
If there were ever an issue for which civil rights groups on campus should get up in arms, this is it. Just like denying ex-convicts voting rights or sex offender tracking and registration, this is an instance of societal double jeopardy. These offenders have made an agreement with the justice system about the recompense they owe society for their transgression; having paid it, they should be able to return to society as members in good standing. Instead, they are dogged by their conviction for the rest of their lives.
Emphasis added to show this wasn’t “taken out of context.” He wrote what he wrote.
* To be clear, Guzzardi has been running away as fast as he can from that column. And it was, after all, a college newspaper column for crying out loud. The Fraternal Order of Police, Chicago Lodge #7 has endorsed him, which pretty much blows that “soft on predators” attack out of the water.
But the sex offender stuff was clearly not taken out of context.
* However, the Sun-Times does have a valid point about the mailer adding an “odd racial twist.” Here it is…
Ugly.
Just ugly.
*** UPDATE *** From a commenter…
So Mark Kirk is somehow not trying to appeal to the worst, most racist elements of human nature when he used the exact same photo, right?
The commenter is correct. Go have a look.
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“A wolf in sheep’s clothing”
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kirk Dillard is running a new 60-second radio ad that throws a whole lot at the wall. This was recorded off the radio via a cell phone, so it’s not the greatest audio. Listen…
* Partial script…
Male: The GOP primary for governor is coming up. Who are you voting for?
Female: Well, Rauner’s been on TV a lot.
Male: Yeah, but did you know Rauner’s pro-choice?
Female: Wait. Rauner’s pro choice?
Male: Yep. And Rauner doesn’t oppose same sex marriage.
Female: Oh, Rauner’s not who he said he is.
Male: Did you know Rauner voted Democrat in 2006?
Female: No Way!
Male: Yep. And Rauner gave millions to Democrats, like Dick Durbin and Nancy Pelosi.
Female: How can he say he’s a Republican?
Male: He even vacations with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
Female: No way Rauner’s Republican.
Male: Wait, there’s more…
It goes on for another 30 seconds and includes the Stu Levine and Peyton Prep clouting stuff.
“Rauner’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing, isn’t he?” the female asks near the end.
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A Bill Brady reality check
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kurk Erickson…
Despite polls showing super-wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner leading the Republican race for governor with a week to go, state Sen. Bill Brady said he’s confident voters will look to him on Election Day.
Calling himself the only “reliable Republican” in the four-way race, the Bloomington businessman said Rauner and state Sen. Kirk Dillard have ties to Democrats that will turn GOP voters toward him. […]
Brady also said the $14 million raised by Rauner won’t give an automatic win to the political newcomer from Winnetka, who has ties to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
“Money doesn’t buy elections,” Brady said. “Our voters are going to turn out.”
* OK, let’s look at a little history.
In the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary, Bill Brady finished third with 18.4 percent.
In the 2010 primary, Brady won with 20.26 percent.
He’s currently polling at 19 percent.
Notice a pattern?
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* From a press release…
Radogno, Durkin encourage Attorney General to aggressively pursue decision on pension reform
Springfield, Ill. – Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont) and House Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) on pension reform:
“We have shared a letter with the Attorney General expressing interest in an aggressive pursuit of a prompt decision on the pension reform legislation.
“We believe some legal procedures are available to the Attorney General to expedite the case and have respectfully encouraged her to use those procedures.
“Substantial financial consequences to the State, its retirement systems and current retired employees are at the heart of the pension reform litigation. We believe if the litigation is expedited and the State prevails, the fiscal stability of both the State and its retirement systems will substantially improve.
“All interested parties will benefit from a quick, but fair, final judicial decision. We urge the Attorney General to use the available avenues to accomplish that goal as we stand alongside her in this matter.”
* So, I asked, what are those legal procedures? The reply…
The letter references the most relevant actions, namely consolidation of various suits and a Supreme Court Rule 302 motion.
The AG has worked to consolidate the latest filing late last week in Champaign County from State University Annuitants. Consolidation helps the court decide on a similar question of fact and will assist in corralling all interested parties onto one court schedule.
The Rule 302 motion is applicable after a Circuit Court ruling. If successful, it would bypass the time and litigation with an appeal proceeding at the Appellate court and be heard directly at the Supreme Court from the circuit court decision.
The AG can also work to encourage the court to not allow unreasonable delays in the court proceedings in general.
So, AG Madigan has already done one of the things and can’t do the other until we get a circuit court ruling, but there is that last option, which I’m not sure applies yet because the case hasn’t even begun.
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Poll: Rauner back on the upswing
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The latest We Ask America tracker with the previous results in parentheses…
Bill Brady 19 (12)
Kirk Dillard 26 (14.5)
Bruce Rauner 46.5 (40)
Dan Rutherford 9 (8)
Undecided - (26)
The firm did not give the 1,235 likely GOP voters an “undecided” option this time around. The poll was taken yesterday and had a margin of error of ± 2.9 percent.
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Oberweis is wintering in Florida
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mary Ann Ahern caught up with Republican US Senate candidate Jim Oberweis in Florida…
NBC 5 has learned that Oberweis flew out of Illinois Saturday, and is at his million-dollar Bonita Beach Florida condo until the end of the week.
When reached by phone, Oberweis would not confirm his whereabouts, and when he was repeatedly asked whether he’s in Illinois, he replied, “I think you’ve figured out by now that I’m not answering that question.”
Oberweis did say he’s “really focused on November,” where he hopes to battle incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin.
He won’t be back until Friday, Ahern reports.
* Here’s the audio of the TV story…
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* There should probably be another zero on that amount to be truly effective, but Sen. Kirk Dillard’s campaign just reported $400,000 in contributions from AFSCME, the IFT and the IEA.
Jim Edgar kicked in another $50K.
I’ll have more for subscribers about this tomorrow.
*** UPDATE *** Via Fred Klonsky’s blog, AFSCME’s Henry Bayer sent this e-mail to his members today…
By channeling our dollars directly to the Dillard campaign, which can purchase crucial television time at roughly half the rate of the independent expenditure campaign, we can get that information out most effectively.
When we started the independent expenditure campaign, we had not yet endorsed a candidate. We did not know who was best positioned to defeat Rauner.
The campaign has entered a new phase.
The independent expenditure effort did a good job of slowing Bruce Rauner’s momentum.
While he is still the frontrunner, Rauner can be beaten.
That’s why it is so important that we redouble our efforts to recruit volunteers for AFSCME phone banks and encourage each of our members to cast their vote in the Republican primary for Kirk Dillard.
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Poll: Hardiman at 36 percent
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kevin McDermott…
A new poll by Strive Strategies shows Quinn with 64 percent of the Democratic vote, to Hardiman’s 36 percent.
In a news release, the polling firm calls that a “solid lead” and presents it as good news for Quinn. It isn’t. Hardiman has no political base, no money, and has received no serious media coverage. It’s unlikely that one-third of Democratic Illinois voters even know who he is, let alone are supporting him.
Which means this is a classic “anyone-but-Quinn” protest vote — from within Quinn’s own party.
I don’t know much about this polling firm, but I’ve been planning my own poll this week. I’ll let you know what happens.
* There are no silver medals in campaigns, but the more support Hardiman gets, the weaker Quinn’s gonna look when the primary is over.
Quinn has always had trouble with female voters, and Hardiman is winning 40 percent of Democratic women.
* Also, We Ask America is planning to release its GOP tracking results at around 8 o’clock tonight. Click here at that time and use this post to comment below.
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* From a press release…
Governor Pat Quinn today announced key campaign staff for his 2014 re-election bid. In addition to the campaign’s Chief Strategist Bill Hyers, the Governor named his Campaign Manager, Senior Advisor, Director of Operations, Deputy Press Secretary and digital and turnout powerhouse firm 270 Strategies. The latest hires join The Mellman Group and Joe Slade White & Company, the Governor’s nationally renowned pollster and political strategy and media firm who also worked on his 2010 campaign.
“I’m proud to have a dedicated and capable team who knows how to work hard and win,” Governor Quinn said. “We will run a strong grassroots campaign built for success in the 21st century.”
The Governor named former Deputy Chief of Staff of Legislative Affairs in the Governor’s Office Lou Bertuca as Campaign Manager. As the campaign’s top ambassador, Bertuca will lead day-to-day campaign operations. Carrie Glenn- a seasoned campaign operative - will serve as Senior Advisor to the campaign, providing critical field leadership, operations support and voter turnout expertise. Bertuca and Glenn will work hand in hand with Hyers, an Illinois native and one of the most highly-sought after campaign leaders in the nation.
In addition, other key staff members named today include: Deputy Director of Operations Sean Floyd, formerly of Bill de Blasio’s successful campaign for mayor of New York City as well as Deputy Press Secretary Izabela Miltko, formerly of SEIU Local 1. Governor Quinn also announced the hiring of 270 Strategies, a digital consulting and marketing firm led by former Obama National Field Director Jeremy Bird. The firm specializes in 21st century grassroots organizing and cutting-edge digital analytics.
More details below:
Bill Hyers - Chief Strategist Hyers most recently managed Bill de Blasio’s successful campaign for mayor of New York City. He also led Governor Steve Beshear’s successful gubernatorial campaign in Kentucky, Mayor Michael Nutter’s successful campaign in Philadelphia and Kirsten Gillibrand’s first race for Congress in 2006. In addition, Hyers managed President Obama’s campaign in Pennsylvania in his 2012 bid for re-election and was Midwest Regional Director for his 2008 campaign.
Lou Bertuca - Campaign Manager Bertuca has worked for Governor Quinn for eight years in a variety of capacities, starting when Quinn was serving as Lieutenant Governor in 2007 and later becoming one of the Governor’s senior advisors. Prior to joining the campaign, Bertuca served as Deputy Chief of Staff in the Governor’s Office and Deputy Chief of Staff at the Illinois Tollway Authority.
Carrie Glenn - Senior Advisor Glenn has extensive campaign experience, which includes holding director and senior field positions in four states for President Obama’s 2008 campaign. Glenn most recently oversaw the Montana Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign. She will provide critical expertise on field operations, grassroots organizing and voter turnout.
Sean Floyd - Director of Operations Floyd previously worked as the Director of Operations for Bill De Blasio’s successful mayoral bid in New York City. He also served as the Director of Operations in Pennsylvania for President Obama’s re-election campaign.
Izabela Miltko - Deputy Press Secretary Miltko served as the Media Relations Specialist for the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 1, overseeing press outreach across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Texas and Wisconsin. Her experience also includes working in Senator Dick Durbin’s press office, as well as Statehouse reporting in Springfield.
270 Digital Strategies - Founded by former National Field Director for President Obama’s re-election campaign Jeremy Bird, 270 Strategies is a next-generation consulting firm that specializes in 21st century, cutting-edge digital strategies and data driven ground game. The 270 Strategies team used grassroots organizing to build their 21st century turnout machine on the historic Obama re-election campaign as well as work on the 2008 campaign.
The Mellman Group - The Mellman Group is one of the nation’s top polling firms, providing opinion research and strategic advice to political leaders, public interest organizations, Fortune 500 companies and government agencies. Clients include some of the nation’ stop political leaders, numerous U.S. Senators, Governors, members of Congress, and state and local officials.
Joe Slade White & Company –Joe Slade White & Company is a Democratic political strategy and media firm, whose clients have included Presidential candidates, U.S. Senators, Governors, members of Congress, and Mayors, including Vice-President Joe Biden and the former Governor of Michigan Jennifer Granholm. In 2012, White helped elect the only Democratic woman governor in the country, New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan.
So, the guy who has had serious problems dealing with the General Assembly names his former Deputy Chief of Staff of Legislative Affairs as his campaign manager?
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Rauner wants to know a lot
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* At about the six minute mark of his interview, Bruce Rauner told WBEZ he wants to have a “cooperative” relationship with state legislators. And then he said this…
“I want to get to know every legislator on a first name basis. I want to get to know them, their families, their hopes, their dreams, their fears, their weaknesses, their vulnerabilities. I want to get to know them well.”
Emphasis added for obvious reasons.
Be careful out there. He’s bringing the heat.
* Meanwhile, at about the 9:30 mark of this WTTW interview with GOP treasurer candidates Tom Cross and Bob Grogan, Mr. Grogan was asked about a comment he’d made earlier that running for office meant dealing with “a bunch of bullies”…
“Whether it’s the fake people on Facebook or on the Internet that are going out there and making up things about you and doing that sort of stuff. It’s rough and tumble… It’s not for normal people.”
Asked if he regretted running, Grogan took a very deep breath and said…
“You know, there are many a times that I do regret getting into it. I’m too stubborn and committed to turn around. Any time when you’re missing ball games with the kids and all that, obviously there’s a good deal of regret.”
He went on to say he felt he had to “stand up” and run, however.
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* I told subscribers about this development earlier this morning. Greg Hinz followed up…
In a critical development in the GOP race for governor, a union-backed group that had spent millions of dollars on TV ads blasting front-runner Bruce Rauner has decided to end its campaign, just as the race enters the crucial last week.
Michael Murray, a spokesman for the Illinois Freedom PAC, said the group has spent $3.1 million so far ripping Mr. Rauner but will spend no more, effective immediately.
Mr. Murray denied a report in Capitol Fax that unions that funded the effort concluded Mr. Rauner now is too far ahead to lose the race, and didn’t want to throw good money after bad. Rather, he insisted, “We feel we have accomplished our goal.”
“We wanted to highlight some issues with Bruce Rauner that the middle-class families of Illinois needed to be made aware of,” he said. “Now that we have achieved that goal, and all the top candidates are on the air, it’s up to their campaigns to make their final case.”
Yeah, OK. They “accomplished their goal” and now they go dark a week out? Right.
*** UPDATE 1 *** The full statement from Mike Murray…
We wanted to highlight some issues with Bruce Rauner that the middle class families of Illinois needed to be made aware of. You saw from the Tribune poll and Rauner’s reaction that we did just that. Now that we have achieved that goal, and all the top candidates are on the air, it’s up to the campaigns to make their final case.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Tribune…
Illinois Freedom raised more than $3.6 million and had begun a heavy schedule of TV advertising in early February. But a television industry official who asked not to be identified said the PAC’s spending on TV dropped noticeably on March 1 and fell even more this week. Murray said the group’s ads will run through the end of the week.
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* Pfleger does have a point, but the governor’s anti-violence program is in definite need of a thorough legislative examination…
South Side activists denounced “cul-de-sac” critics Monday and called for more cash — not less — for anti-violence programs such as Gov. Pat Quinn’s troubled Neighborhood Recovery Initiative.
The Rev. Michael Pfleger and former state Sen. Alice Palmer were among those who appeared at a news conference at The Ark of St. Sabina in the Gresham neighborhood to support the now disbanded program that was assailed in a blistering audit last month and is now facing a steady drumbeat of negative headlines. […]
“It angers me when people from Lemont and Palatine and Springfield, and suburbs all around Illinois, love to launch their attack on programs that seek to reach the most at-risk youth in our city,” Pfleger said. “It also bothers me that they never come to the South Side or to the West Side to say, ‘What can we do? How can we help? How can we stop this carnage of blood in our streets?’”
Pfleger and others shared troubling statistics — 216 school-age children killed in Chicago in 2010, 92 percent of black male teens unemployed in 2012 — and said success stories within the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative are being ignored, including “thousands of lives that were saved.”
* More…
“There are good and bad things about every state program, but why must we always concentrate on the bad when it involves youths on the South and West Sides?” said Pfleger, pastor of St. Sabina Church in Auburn Gresham. “I am sick and tired of people who do not live in our community and have never been to our community telling us what’s good for us.” […]
“Across the state 85 percent of black teens are unemployed. Across the city it is 89 percent,” said Jack Wuest, executive director of the nonprofit Alternative Schools Network, citing a January report by his organization. “Young blacks males in the city living with families earning less than $20,000 a year are 95 percent unemployed. This is an epidemic that has to be addressed in a broader fashion.”
* But…
Alice Palmer, a community activist, worked with 80 South Shore youths in programming supported by the initiative in 2010, including some who went on to get further training.
“These young people were well-received by businesses because they brought a positive message,” she said. “We have one young lady who is in nursing school thanks to the training and motivation she received from the neighborhood program.”
* According to an internal e-mail exchange posted by the Sun-Times in its original story, Ms. Palmer apparently knew the guy who allegedly killed his cohort during an alleged home invasion…
In a 2012 email, Betts identified Alice Palmer as his organization’s point person in the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative’s Mentoring Plus Jobs program for South Shore, of which Brown and Bufford were a part.
Palmer served in the Illinois Senate, involuntarily relinquishing her seat in 1997 to Barack Obama after being knocked off the ballot because her nominating petitions were insufficient. While Betts would not do so, a Quinn administration source confirmed the woman Betts referred to is the former state senator. Messages left at multiple phone numbers tied to Palmer were not returned Thursday.
“Dr. Palmer has first-hand familiarity with the youth involved in this tragic incident,” Betts said in his Aug. 8, 2012, email response to Barbara Shaw in which he promised to develop a “more formal response strategy” to the murder.
It would be nice to see her testify about this mess.
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Mr. “.01 percent”
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Sun-Times’ profile of Bruce Rauner…
Within minutes of sitting for an interview, gubernatorial front-runner Bruce Rauner makes a bold correction about his personal fortune when asked if he is among the so-called 1 percent of the wealthiest Americans.
“Oh, I’m probably .01 percent,” said Rauner, who owns nine homes, and made $53 million last year. […]
Rauner quickly grew perturbed when asked if the comparisons are true that he’s the “Mitt Romney of Illinois.”
“I am a very different person from Mitt Romney,” Rauner said. “I drink beer. I smoke a cigar. I use a gun. I ride a Harley. My grandparents lived in a double-wide trailer. I’m a salesman. He’s an analyst.” […]
“I get a crowd going to a standing ovation. I never saw [Romney] do that,” Rauner said.
* Sen. Kirk Dillard responded…
In a campaign statement today, Dillard, a Hinsdale Republican, called Rauner “out of touch,” and said he was concerned with “how” Rauner made his money.
“There’s no way someone who admits being in the top .01 of America’s richest people can relate to working families,” Dillard said. “How can someone with nine luxury homes relate to someone struggling to make ends meet? The answer is obvious: he can’t”
* As did somebody from Romney’s former campaign…
A former top Romney 2012 campaign official scoffed at Rauner’s comments.
“I don’t know what cave Bruce was stuck in during 2012, but of the 60+ million people who voted for Mitt Romney, tens of thousands would regularly show up to stand and cheer at our rallies,” the official told TPM.
* Rauner’s campaign responded to Dillard…
“Attacking success, on top of taking hundreds of thousands in campaign contributions from some of Pat Quinn’s biggest allies, is why Kirk Dillard should be running in the Democrat primary,” said Rauner campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf.
So far, though, there’s been no response to the Romney folks.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It’s been quite a lousy morning. I wasn’t feeling all that well, and then I finally woke up only to find that my Gmail account “has been disabled due to suspicious activity.” Trying to fix that now.
So, while I do that, how about we do this…
* The Question: Are there any local primary races that you are following? Who’s gonna win?
…Adding… Gmail is finally working. I had a real problem getting my computer to deal with the new password, but that’s fixed now as well. Hopefully, I can return to some sort of normalcy soon. What a lousy day.
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A little hypey
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP headline…
Study: Fiscal ’scarlet letter’ costs state extra $80M
* From the story…
The study, conducted by DePaul University professor Martin Luby, a visiting researcher at the U of I institute, and Tima Moldogaziev of the University of South Carolina, set out to determine whether interest rates were even higher than other states’ rates in similar situations. They used a “’scarlet letter’ metaphor to note the hypothesized incremental risk premium demanded by investors on bonds that carry the name ‘Illinois.’” […]
“That’s above what the state should have been paying based on our worst-in-the-nation credit rating,” Luby said. “That’s one expensive reputation.”
OK, but we’re talking two-tenths of one percent, or about $16 million a year on average.
Yes, that money could’ve been better spent elsewhere, but it’s not a hugely gigantic pile of cash in the state’s overall budget.
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* From the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s latest poll…
Now that Illinois has passed a law allowing registered trained citizens to carry loaded handguns in public, do you feel more safe or less safe?
More safe 31.8%
Less safe 52.3%
Neither/about the same (VOL) 12.9%
Other/Don’t know 3.0%
* From the Institute…
Voters in the Chicago suburbs responded similarly to the statewide average, with 54.6 percent saying they felt less safe. Those in the City of Chicago were much more likely to say they felt less safe (64.5 percent). In downstate Illinois, opinion was evenly split, with 41.9 percent saying they felt more safe and 40.5 percent saying they felt less safe.
* The following results compare 2013 answers (first result) to the 2014 poll…
Gun Rights vs. Gun Control
What do you think is more important? Protecting the right to own guns, or controlling gun ownership?
Response 2013 2014
Protecting the right to own guns 31.3% 41.5%
Controlling ownership 59.5% 53.0%
Other/Don’t know 9.2% 5.6%
Exceptions to Concealed Carry
Do you believe there should be exceptions to allowing concealed weapons in public places—excluding them from such places as schools, college campuses, shopping malls, and movie theaters?
Response 2013 2014
Yes 71.3% 56.7%
No 20.7% 35.7%
Other/Don’t know 8.0% 7.6%
Armed Guards in Schools
Do you favor or oppose putting more armed guards or police in schools?
Response 2013 2014
Favor 46.3% 53.1%
Oppose 44.8% 38.3%
Other/Don’t know 8.8% 8.6%
* Methodology…
The 2014 Simon Poll interviewed 1,001 registered voters across Illinois. It has a margin for error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that if we were to conduct the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances the results would vary by no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the results obtained here. The margin for error will be larger for demographic, geographic and response subgroups.
Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas. Cell phone interviews accounted for 30 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available. Customer Research International reports no Illinois political clients. The survey was paid for with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund.
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The governor’s totally messed up program
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
“There was no money allocated at all before the election of 2010,” Gov. Pat Quinn told Chicago TV reporter Charles Thomas about allegations that the governor had spent millions in state anti-violence grants to boost his flagging election campaign. Quinn used his to defend himself against growing criticism about a devastating state audit of the anti-violence grants.
But what the governor said in his own defense was not true.
According to Illinois Auditor General Bill Holland, Quinn’s administration signed contracts with 23 local groups on October 15th, about three weeks before 2010’s election day. Each of the groups, hand-picked by Chicago aldermen, were promised about $300,000 for a total of around $7 million.
“That is allocating money,” Auditor General Holland emphatically said last week about the awarding of those state contracts.
A Quinn spokesman countered that the governor actually meant to say that no money was distributed to the groups prior to election day. But the groups’ leaders, many with political ties, had signed state contracts in their hands. They knew that bigtime state money was on the way soon.
As you probably already know, Holland’s audit uncovered massive problems with the grants, finding “pervasive deficiencies” in the “planning, implementation, and management” of the grants doled out via the Governor’s Neighborhood Recovery Initiative. The program was “hastily implemented,” expenses were not adequately monitored, and a third of Chicago’s “most violent Chicago communities” weren’t included in the program.
The governor met with a group of ministers in the Roseland community in August of 2010. Black ministers have long held a strong position of power in Chicago’s African-American political culture, so Quinn was undoubtedly eager to placate them ahead of election day.
Five days after the meeting, the Illinois Violence Prevention Authority was informed by the governor’s office that Quinn wanted to establish a $20 million crime reduction program. Less than two months after the initial meeting, the governor upped the grant program to $50 million for Chicago communities alone. Chicago aldermen were asked to submit lists of groups that would receive the money and that list alone was used to solicit Requests for Proposals from the groups. Contracts were signed on October 15th.
The audit’s language is without a doubt the harshest since Rod Blagojevich was governor.
Some Republicans asked the Auditor General last week to forward his findings to the US Attorney.
One of the items pointed to by the Republicans is a passage from the Illinois Violence Prevention Authority’s September 30th, 2010 board minutes, when an official from the governor’s office told the board that “the Governor’s Office is committed to allocating some of the funds for this Initiative immediately and will allocate the rest after the election.”
That quote, the Republicans say, is proof that the election was an issue with the program. He was, some of them say, trying to “buy” the 2010 election. But that’s not really my read.
Back when Jim Edgar was Secretary of State, he oversaw a literacy grant program. Not coincidentally, lots of African-American churches with schools received grants from Edgar. The plan was simple and well thought out: Use state money to carefully buy influence with an important constituency.
But the creation of Quinn’s anti-violence initiative was completely reactive. Quinn was under enormous pressure from leaders of exploding neighborhoods to act fast.
The idea here appeared to be to throw something - anything - together as quickly as he could to get the angry ministers and neighborhood leaders off his back. Allowing aldermen to pick the local agencies further ensured that the squeakiest wheels would be greased.
What Quinn purchased wasn’t votes, it was peace with a powerful and important constituency. It got him out of the headlines. He was no longer part of the problem.
There are those who say politics and governing must be completely separated, but that just can’t happen in a democratic republic.
How many of the legislators carelessly talking to the press about impeachment in this case have introduced bills or voted for or against legislation to the benefit of a powerful local constituency? All of them.
There’s no doubt, however, that this grant program went far beyond normally accepted practices, to the point of throwing them out. But the really serious legal problems will likely be found in the middle and the bottom - perhaps some of the aldermen who recommended the agencies and any of the connected folks who got the grants.
* Meanwhile…
West Garfield Park ranks in the top 20 most violent areas on the city map.
In 2011 and 2012, the West Side neighborhood got more than $2.1 million from Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration through his Neighborhood Recovery Initiative anti-violence program, state records show.
But instead of all that public money going toward quelling the shooting and other violence there, a substantial chunk of it — almost 7 percent — appears to have gone into the pocket of the husband of Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown.
Benton Cook, Brown’s spouse, was paid more than $146,401 in salary and fringe benefits from state grant funds to serve as the program coordinator with the Chicago Area Project, the agency the Quinn administration put in charge of doling out anti-violence funding to West Garfield Park, state records show.
And no comment yet from the governor’s office.
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Burying the debate
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* If you really don’t want to debate your under-funded opponent and you go ahead and do it anyway, you probably ought to do it like this…
In their only live joint appearance before the March 18 primary election, Republican congressional candidates Erika Harold and Rodney Davis clashed over Davis’ vote to trim veterans’ benefits in a federal budget deal.
The one-hour debate was held at 7 a.m. today at Bloomington-Normal radio station Cities 92.9 FM, a station whose signal doesn’t reach Champaign-Urbana or any of the larger communities in the 13th Congressional District. Only a portion of Bloomington-Normal is in the district, which is represented by Davis of Taylorville.
However, the magic of the Interwebtubes means the debate is forever available to anyone with a computer. Click here.
* From the debate coverage…
“I think it’s unconscionable to have voted for something that cut veteran’s pensions. And I would disagree with Congressman Davis, he was not the person who led the charge on restoring those benefits.”
[Harold] said Davis defended the cuts in a television interview.
“That’s not true,” Davis interjected.
“He was justifying the cuts as saying that they would not apply to disabled veterans, and he said that they would be applying to people who could have a second job. I think it’s a mischaracterization to say that he was the one who led it,” said Harold, a Harvard Law School graduate and former Miss America. “Finally I would say that if members of Congress fixed it, what was the point of having those cuts in the first place? Either they didn’t read the bill carefully or, what I think happened, is they understood after the American public responded negatively that this is unacceptable and they went back and fixed it.” […]
[Davis] said he was asked what the impact of the cuts would be “if they weren’t fixed.”
“And that’s the quote they used and that’s where you say that I support these cuts, and that is just wrong and disingenuous and frankly dishonest,” Davis charged.
* Meanwhile…
Davis raised $328,000 from Jan. 1 to Feb. 26, according to his pre-primary filing with the Federal Election Commission. Davis also reported $1.1 million in cash on hand. […]
Former judge Ann Callis, a candidate touted as a top recruit by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, brought in $102,000 in the pre-primary time period. The haul left her with $449,000 in cash on hand as of Feb. 26.
Physics professor George Gollin, a Democrat running against Callis in the primary, raised $76,000. He reported $227,000 in cash on hand, some of which includes an initial loan Gollin made to his campaign. […]
Davis’ GOP primary challenger, Erika Harold, a former Miss America winner, raised $61,000 in the pre-primary period. She reported $137,000 in cash on hand.
* And here’s a new TV ad by Democrat George Gollin…
* Script…
Narrator: Political insider Ann Callis folded to the tea party agenda. Ann Callis said this about cutting Social Security…
Audio of Callis: We’re going to have to see what’s there and what we remove
Narrator: Cut Social Security? Ann Callis wants what the tea party wants
The sentence in question was actually only part of a sentence. According to the Big Debbie’s House Blog, when asked if she’d favor making people work longer before they could retire, Callis said no. The blogger documented several other times where Callis opposed cutting Social Security benefits and quotes the Illinois AFL-CIO president…
Ann Callis has the support of thousands of working men and women in Illinois because she is a true fighter for the middle-class and will protect Social Security and Medicare. Gollin’s ad is clearly misleading and uses a quote out of context, and this desperate attack from George Gollin is totally unwarranted.
Subscribers have an update on poll results in that primary race.
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Proft, Matune hit
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Click the pic to see a larger version of a new flier sent out in defense of Rep. Ron Sandack, who is in the fight of his life against GOP primary challenge Keith Matune…
Hat tip: Illinois Truth Team, which appears to be a HGOP-related creation.
* Meanwhile, Carol Marin wrote a column bashing Dan Proft for allegedly sending out a mailer blasting Sandack that featured two men kissing. Click here to see the mailer. But Proft didn’t send that mailer. It was sent by the Illinois Family Action PAC. Marin promptly apologized in a rewritten column, but added this…
Proft argues there is no excuse for my error. He is correct. There is not.
That said, there was more to the original column, and let’s consider that. In my view, some of the mailers sent by Proft’s own PAC, Liberty Principles, appear homophobic.
That includes a mailer against Sandack that shows Mayor Rahm Emanuel in a leotard and a line reading, “Now we know where Ron Sandack learned how to dance.”
Proft, in a followup email to me, writes, “I do not believe that Rahm is gay.”
Another image on a Proft mailer shows a photo of Sandack in the foregound and a gay activist in the background with the headline, “Strange Bedfellows.”
Proft argues I misinterpret that as well, saying the mailer “chronicled (the gay activist’s) radical activism, house being raided by the FBI . . . comparison of Scott Walker to Mubarak and the like.”
Proft adds in his email to me, “You want to make the race about gay marriage. I do not. . . . To accuse me of gay bashing is little more than conservative bashing.” Noting that he has supported two candidates who endorsed either civil unions or same-sex marriage, Proft maintains it is economic policy principles that guide his commitment to a candidate.
“I’m a gay basher?” he writes. “Utter and complete bulljive.”
Subscribers know much more about this race, including details of a blistering new anti-Matune TV ad.
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Question of the day
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz…
If Mr. Dillard really has momentum, the Rauner campaign has the resources to whack him back. The campaign already has up spots criticizing his legislative votes on tax and spending issues. But much of the chatter in political circles last week was about whether the Rauner campaign will question Mr. Dillard’s union ties in paid TV ads, and whether it will remind voters that the senator once cut a television commercial for then-presidential candidate Barack Obama.
Team Rauner isn’t saying what it will do. I’d take that as indication it’s aware that a last-minute, heavily negative campaign would hurt not only Mr. Dillard but potentially backfire on Mr. Rauner, with the Dillard campaign loudly reminding voters that Mr. Rauner is the one who has donated to Mr. Emanuel and other Democrats such as former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. […]
Four years ago, Mr. Brady was the GOP nominee against incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, and Mr. Brady still harbors some goodwill among the GOP faithful, particularly downstate.
Mr. Brady also has another path to victory: light turnout. That would mean that traditional Republicans are dominating the party, rather than outraged “time for change” newcomers to whom Mr. Rauner has pitched his campaign.
* Kurt Erickson…
Walking into the Capitol Wednesday with a lawmaker-turned-lobbyist, we chatted about whether Dillard, with the help of the unions, could somehow turn the numbers around in his favor.
“That’s a very big hill to climb in such a short amount of time,” rhymed the former suburban Republican senator.
Later in the day I talked with a veteran member of the Senate — a Democrat — who cautioned that it was still too early to call the race. After all, he said, no one saw Brady — except perhaps Brady — emerging out of the cornstalks to win the 2010 GOP primary.
* Doug Finke…
The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees added its endorsement to those Dillard previously won from the Illinois Education Association and the Illinois Federation of Teachers. With the endorsements should come money, which anyone running against multi-millionaire Bruce Rauner is going to need.
The question is how much the endorsements will do for Dillard when the votes are cast.
Everyone knows that turnout in primary elections is sparse. Those most likely to vote are the committed party faithful. Among Republicans, that often means more conservative members of the party, which explains why you often see GOP candidates tacking to the right in the run-up to a primary.
You have to figure that the more conservative wing of the Republican Party will be more receptive to Rauner’s position that public employee unions, or at least their leaders, have been bad for the state and are the cause of many of the state’s problems. So if those are the people more likely to vote in a primary election, it may not do Dillard all that much good to pick up endorsements from public employee unions.
Then again, I talked to somebody over the weekend who saw a tracker that had Dillard in fourth place. Yes, that’s very weird. I don’t know whether to believe those results or not. Strange days.
…Adding… Looks like a normal off-year Democratic turnout and stronger GOP turnout in Chicago. From the Chicago Elections Commission…
2010 Early Voting (Gubernatorial Primary)
……………………………………….DEM…………REP
Week 1 (22-16 days out)…….9,533………786
Week 2 (15-09 days out)…..11,060……1,023
Total for Two Weeks…………20,593……1,809
2012 Early Voting (Presidential Primary)
……………………………………….DEM……….REP
Week 1 (22-16 days out)……9,993…….1,267
Week 2 (15-09 days out)…..10,750……1,382
Total ………………………………20,743……2,649
2014 Early Voting (Gubernatorial Primary)
……………………………………….DEM……….REP
Week 0 (22-16 days out)……NO EARLY VOTING
Week 1 (15-09 days out)…..9,268…….1,753
* The Question: Odds that Brady, Dillard or even Rutherford could surge enough to win the primary?
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Mouth, both sides
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune editorial…
Late last year, many lawmakers made an exceedingly difficult vote. They voted to save this state and its pension funds from financial ruin. […]
Here’s the danger in the March 18 primary election. If several lawmakers lose because they took a tough vote, fewer lawmakers will be willing to make the next tough vote. […]
There are only a handful of challenges in this primary for seats in the House and Senate, but several of them are taking on outsized importance. Voters, if you’re in one of those districts, reward courage. Don’t settle for the lie that soothes.
And yet they didn’t “reward courage” by endorsing Bill Brady, the only Republican gubernatorial candidate who voted for/supported the pension reform bill.
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Today’s numbers
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
Attorney General Lisa Madigan today announced that her office collected nearly $1 billion in 2013 on behalf of the State of Illinois.
Through a combination of litigation and collection efforts, Madigan’s office generated more than $32 for every tax dollar appropriated to the office in 2013. Since Madigan took office, total collections have reached over $10 billion.
“My office works to maximize revenue to support critical state programs and services, and we do this while maintaining the lowest level of taxpayer funding since 1997,” Madigan said. “Since my first term as Attorney General, we’ve secured over $10 billion in revenue to fund state operations.”
In 2013, Madigan’s office collected $992,581,592.32 on behalf of the state. The Attorney General’s office generated nearly $374.5 million of this amount through collections litigation for damage to state property, child support, unpaid educational loans, fines and penalties. In addition, the Attorney General’s office collected nearly $273.6 million through tobacco litigation and nearly $243.6 million in estate tax revenues.
Additionally, due to a settlement with JPMorgan Chase & Company, Madigan’s office recovered $101 million for the state’s pension systems to cover losses sustained from investments in mortgage-backed securities that contributed to the economic collapse in 2008.
Madigan’s office operated in 2013 with an appropriation from the state’s general revenue fund of $30,843,200 – the lowest level of funding from taxpayer dollars that the office has received since 1997. Attorney General Madigan’s office generated $32.18 for every state general revenue tax dollar the office received in 2013.
The $992.6 million generated in 2013 does not include more than one billion dollars in benefits that Madigan’s office successfully recovered through mediation and litigation, which is distributed directly to Illinois residents, businesses and organizations often in the form of restitution.
For instance, Attorney General Madigan’s Consumer Fraud Bureau recovered and saved more than $1.1 billion on behalf of defrauded Illinois residents and businesses in 2013, a sum that includes relief that Illinois residents received directly from the $25 billion national foreclosure settlement that Attorney General Madigan secured in conjunction with her state counterparts, the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Over the last two years, Illinois residents have directly received nearly $2 billion in financial relief in the form of principal reductions, loan refinancing and cash payments as a result of the settlement, which was the second largest ever obtained through joint action of state attorneys general.
Madigan’s office also reached several major settlements with the pharmaceutical industry in 2013. Among the most notable is a $1.6 billion joint state and federal settlement with Johnson & Johnson and its subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals over its illegal marketing of antipsychotic drugs Risperdal and Invega. Illinois received $23.6 million under the agreement.
Madigan’s office also has secured more than $85 million in unpaid gasoline sales taxes through a joint enforcement initiative with the Illinois Department of Revenue. This ongoing investigation is aimed at cracking down on gas station owners who have evaded paying sales taxes by falsely under-reporting sales figures, causing the loss of millions of dollars in state tax revenue.
Thoughts?
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Two endorsements, two very different reasons
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The SJ-R goes with Kirk Dillard for governor…
Dillard, a suburban state senator from Hinsdale since 1993 and former chief of staff for former Illinois Gov. Jim Edgar, has a record of moderate views on fiscal and economic matters involving the state. In a state whose books are so dramatically out of whack, why look for moderation in a leader? Because reason and moderation — not heavy-handed, uncompromising pledges to take a jackhammer to Illinois government — are how good leaders get things done.
* But the Moline Dispatch and the Rock Island Argus go with Bruce Rauner…
Based on their records and long commitment to making Illinois a better place to live, we believe Sens. Dillard and Brady and Treasurer Rutherford could slide easily into the governor’s office and get to work within the system to try to change it. But is incremental change at glacial speed what Illinois needs? Or is it time to explore shaking up a system that has made one of the best states in the nation one of the worst in far too many categories?
* Related…
* After years of running together, Brady and Rutherford now running against each other
* Tom Kacich: It’s time for ugly part of campaigning
* Doubek: No Profiles In Courage
* Kass: In Illinois Republican primary, no white knights
* GOP Governor’s Race: 8 Issues You Should Know
* GOP governor candidates cite proudest accomplishments
* Local Historian Shares Thoughts on Governor’s Race
* 5 questions with Bruce Rauner
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Brady’s money problems
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* To put this into a little perspective, Bruce Rauner reported raising more than three times this much in one day last week…
State Sen. Bill Brady’s bargain-basement bid for governor is finally up on the television airwaves.
A spokesman for the Bloomington Republican said the campaign has purchased $100,000 in TV advertising time as the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination heads into its final days.
The 30-second ad is a “nice looking piece that sells Bill Brady,” spokesman Dan Egler said.
Brady has trailed his three opponents in fundraising through most of the 2014 campaign season. Records show he had about $273,000 in his campaign account at the end of 2013 and has raised about $27,000 since then.
* I asked Comcast what their numbers showed. They said Brady’s claimed total may “include other systems elsewhere in the state,” because their tracking has it at about $20,000 “spread across Chicago and our Central IL markets.”
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SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Recent cable TV buys
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Comcast…
Committee to Elect Will Guzzardi
$48,833
3/5 - 3/17/14
Northwest and Southwest zones
AEN, AMC, CNN, FOOD, HALL, LIFE, MNBC, OWN, OXYG, TBS, TNT, TWC, USA, VH1, WE,
All dayparts bought
Chicagoans United for Economic Security [Anti Christian Mitchell]
Agency: 76 Words, DC
$2,030
Targeting IL HD 26
3/11 – 3/17/14
Networks: BET, CNN, MNBC, TVL, TWC
Dayparts: 5-9A, 9A-4P
Syscodes: / zones / $ by syscode
1796 / Chicago Central/ $880
1797 / Chicago City North / $1,150
Total Buy - $2,030
House Republican Organization [Sandack]
Agency: Jamestown Associates, DC
$27,420
Targeting IL HD 81
3/10 – 3/17/14
Networks: FXNC, MNBC
All dayparts bought
Syscodes / zones / $ by syscode
1737 / Aurora-Naperville / $10,940
1733 / Wheaton –St Charles / $9,580
6217 / Oakbrook / $6,900
Total Buy - $27,420
Liberty Principles PAC, Chicago [Anti Sandack]
Direct buy from client
$59,010
Targeting IL HD 81
3/10 – 3/17/14
Networks: AEN, CNN, DISC, ESPN, FXNC, HIST, TNT
All dayparts bought
Syscodes: / zones / $ by syscode
1737 / Aurora-Naperville / $38,110
6217 / Oakbrook / $20,900
Total Buy - $59,010
Liberty Principles PAC, Chicago [Anti Pihos]
Direct buy from client
$59,015
Targeting IL HD 48
3/7 – 3/17/14
Networks: AEN, CNN, DISC, ESPN, FXNC, HIST, TNT
All dayparts bought
Syscodes: / zones / $ by syscode
1737 / Aurora-Naperville / $24,950
1733 / Wheaton –St Charles / $20,995
6217 / Oakbrook / $13,070
Total Buy - $59,015
* Also…
Carol Ammons for State Representative [Jakobsson district Dem primary]
Champaign-Sprngfld-Dtr
BET,BRVO,BTIL,CMDY,CNN,ESPN,HIST,LIF,MNBC,VH1
3/7/14 through 3/17/14
$3,298.84
More, including a Kirk Dillard buy, is here. [Fixed link.]
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Rutherford drama costs the state more money
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* After spending $27,000 in taxpayer money on his internal investigation, Treasurer Dan Rutherford now has three $200 an hour state-paid attorneys to defend himself against a federal lawsuit…
The state will pay three attorneys up to $200 per hour to represent Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford in a lawsuit filed by a former employee.
Edmund Michalowski accused Rutherford last month of sexually harassing him and forcing him to do campaign work on state time.
Rutherford, who is seeking the Republican nomination for Illinois governor, has denied the claims. He’s said the accusations have made his campaign more difficult.
Documents from the attorney general’s office say Robert Shuftan, Daniel Fahner and Bilal Zaheer have been appointed special assistant attorneys general. They’ll be paid using taxpayer funds from the treasurer’s office.
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* Both the Tribune and the Sun-Times have published profile pieces on Bruce Rauner. Most interesting nugget in the Tribune’s story…
The only way to fix the state’s fiscal woes, Rauner insists, is to effectively do away with the current pension system, though he would not seek to eliminate benefits already earned by public workers. Instead, Rauner says, going forward they all should be shifted into 401(k)-style plans that don’t guarantee minimum retirement benefits but give workers the option to invest the money.
Workers in the private sector were long ago shifted to the more volatile 401(k) plans, he argues. However, Rauner would not have the state pay to extend Social Security coverage to those same public workers, even though that is legally required for those in the private sector whether or not they have 401(k)s. [Emphasis added.]
…Adding… From a legislator…
Going to a 401(k) doesn’t necessarily trigger Social Security. In fact, as long as the employer + employee contribution into the 401(k) is at least 7.5% Social Security can be optional.
In other words, Rauner’s horrible idea isn’t illegal. But it’s still a horrible idea.
Also, he does want to eliminate some benefits. Rauner would freeze pension benefit payments at their current amount forever. No inflation protections at all for anyone. That’ll most certainly diminish pensions over not that much time.
* Sun-Times…
Myles Mendoza, the executive director of Ed Choice Illinois, said when he’d get a voicemail from Rauner, he’d save it.
“It’s like the voice of God coming through your phone. It’s sort of this roaring, commanding voice,” Mendoza said, adding: “You can hear the passion coming through.” Mendoza, who said he doesn’t get funding from Rauner, has known him since 2011 to be an advocate for education reform and having a leadership style that mixes confidence and warmth.
“It was a combination of being informed, being charismatic enough to get your attention and having the sort of sheer will to direct things in the way that they have to go,” Mendoza said. “I think he absolutely will stoke the fire and once the fire’s going, he will move things in the direction they need to go.”
Mendoza said Rauner has told him you can’t get people’s attention by being a wall flower. But he denied Rauner would have a scorched earth approach to leading.
“Bruce is going to get your attention, but it’s not going to be scorched earth all the way. I’ve seen communications where — he just has a way of making sure you don’t ignore things. He is a very loving person. He has this juxtaposition between strength and compassion,” Mendoza said. “Who else in this universe is a successful businessman but really spends most of their time learning and investing in education? Why is he doing this? Because he cares about disadvantaged kids. There’s like a handful of people who care about this stuff on his level. He cares about it, he’s like consumed by it. I think that’s why he’s running for governor, because he wants to change things.”
Discuss.
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More on “Bill”
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I stopped by our late commenter “Bill” Naegele’s wake yesterday and spoke with his widow and his daughter. They both greatly appreciated your kind comments about Bill after we learned of his passing on Friday. As you might imagine, there was a big turnout for the wake. People loved the man.
I also spoke with some of his fellow union officials and we kicked around the idea of maybe setting up a scholarship fund. Bill taught in a suburban community college, so the focus would be there. More details as I get them.
* Bill’s daughter also commented on our post over the weekend…
I would like to thank you all for the happiness this blog brought to Bill. He truly enjoyed all the banter and hell raising he experienced here with each of you. Reading the kind words and memories y’all have shared since his passing have been a great source of comfort for us.
I’ll leave you with one more smile thanks to Bill- his final wishes were that we take his ashes and scatter them off of the pier in the town in Florida where he loved to vacation. The town offers the option of engraving a message in a plank of the pier and Bill asked us to make one in his honor that says, “I never caught a fish here…and now I never will.”
* In the entire history of blogging, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an outpouring of sadness over the death of a commenter anywhere. We’ve built such a strong community here together that many of us feel truly close to one another.
Also, some of our commenters are so active that they almost have their own blogs within a blog. Bill was one of those folks. He had become an integral part of this website and our community and his passing has left a huge hole. I want to create a permanent memorial for him somewhere on the blog’s front page and I’m currently mulling how to do it. Maybe you could help.
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Reader comments closed for the weekend
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* For Bill. Get up and dance…
…Adding… Bill’s arrangements are as follows…
Visitation will be from 3:00 to 7:00 pm. Sunday, March 9th and Memorial Service will be at 7:30 at:
Beverly Ride Funeral Home
10415 S. Kedzie
Chicago, IL
In lieu of flowers the family asks to make a donation to your favorite charity
We’ll be picking a charity next week.
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Question of the day
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Eric Zorn…
Brady’s new one-liner — “the more I hear Bruce Rauner speak, the more he sounds like Rod Blagojevich” — isn’t nearly as preposterous as it sounds.
Though Blagojevich’s policy impulses differed from Rauner’s, he, too, ran as a populist outsider whose superior moral judgment and iron will would rout the corrupt power elite in Springfield and spark a rebirth of Illinois, as though our problems are simple and governors are kings.
We’ve seen that movie already. We know how it ends.
Meh.
Blagojevich was clinically insane. There are gonna be some big fights if Rauner is elected, but at least they will probably be about something that makes some sense. Rod’s GRT fight lasted months beyond all reason, for instance.
* And, yes, there is a very strong populist vein to be mined in this state. Rod had his schtick, Quinn does it, Rauner has also tapped into it.
It’s no coincidence that both Quinn and Rauner insist on staying at cheap hotels. Rauner has his $18 watch, Quinn has his decades old briefcase “Betsy.”
Quinn is more legit, however. He’s a frugal guy who lives a relatively modest private life. Rauner may have some frugal tastes, but his Manhattan condo with a moat around it shows he has an ultra-extravagant, 0.01 percenter side as well. I’m betting he doesn’t fly coach on business trips like Quinn does. Then again, Quinn loves that state plane.
* The Question: How would you compare and contrast Pat Quinn and Bruce Rauner?
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Matune attempts an explanation
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’d really like to believe the guy, because mainly I don’t care all that much about what people did in their 20s. But, Rep. Sandack is right that Keith Matune’s stories have changed so much that I don’t know what to think about his latest defense…
Court records obtained by the [House Republican Organization] and released to the media show that Matune was arrested in January 1994 for allegedly entering a woman’s dormitory through a window. In April 1994 he signed a plea agreement and the court withheld prosecution in exchange for two payments of $50, good behavior and promising not to enter the premises again, according to the documents.
Matune said Thursday that the building was his previous college fraternity house, was vacant, and that he and his friends entered the building with keys, not through a window, for a nostalgic reasons after finishing college.
This is the second incident the organization has released information on regarding Matune.
“It’s a desperate act of a desperate campaign who knows they’re not going to win this election,” Matune said Thursday. “It’s the whole centerpiece of the Ron Sandack campaign. They have absolutely nothing to run on so they have to smear and defame someone’s name.”
Sandack said in response that, “I’ve run a positive campaign. People that are paying attention know where I am on the issues that matter to the families in the 81st. Mr. Matune’s past is his past, and everyone makes a mistake. But his failure to be honest about it is a troubling act.
“Anyone that’s been listening to him [knows that] he continually changes his story – or he’s forgotten he’s been arrested, or that he told the [media outlets] he’s never been the arrested.”
If Matune wins this primary, he’s gonna cost the House Republicans a fortune this fall.
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“Bill”
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From IFT President Dan Montgomery…
It is with sadness that I inform you of the passing of IFT Vice President/Cook County College Teachers Union Legislative Chairman Bill Naegele.
Information on services will be forwarded as it is received.
* Bill Naegele was one of the most infamous commenters we ever had on this blog.
“Bill,” as we knew him, delighted in firing up other commenters by supporting Rod Blagojevich through thick and thin. Man, he got into some wicked fights.
It was mostly an act. He delighted in messing with people, making them defend their arguments, putting a burr under their saddles.
Bill and I eventually became friends and I got to experience the born contrarian up close and personal. He was one of the funniest, down to earth, in your face guys I ever knew.
* Bill introduced himself to me years ago at the Old State Capitol. The Statehouse was being remodeled, so the House held session at the old place. I took a photo and posted it on the blog. He wanted to maintain his anonymity, so we used a photo of the back of his head…
* On the day Blagojevich was arrested, Bill posted a comment that will live forever with people who’ve been around here awhile…
Heh.
* By then, most commenters had warmed up to Bill and he became a very popular guy. We even tried to get him appointed to Barack Obama’s Senate seat. OneMan put this one together, as I recall…
* We created a Facebook page and Bill jumped all the way in. Here’s his “acceptance speech”…
My friends,
On this great day for Illinois, at this moment, we now have 200 members of the Capitol Fax Bill for Senate Group. Let me just say that I am overwhelmed and humbled by your support. It is after much soul searching and after conferring with my family that I am proud to announce that should our movement be successful and Governor Blagojevich offers me the opportunity to serve you, the people of Illinois, as your Senator, I will accept the appointment.
It is time for a change in America! We have assembled a team that is unprecedented in national politics.
My fellow Americans now is the time to show the bureaucrats in Washington D.C. how government should be run for the people not for the special interests. Except for myself and my supporters, lobbyists will have no place in the Capitol Fax Bill Senate office. Our job is not done. Call or write Rod Blagojevich today and demand change we can believe in.
Demand Bill as your Senator! God Bless you and God bless America!
* When Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris instead, Bill issued this statement…
My fellow Illinoisians,
Today is a sad day for our state. Despite our best efforts to clean up politics in this state by running a campaign clean and free of the pay to play syndrome that has plagued Illinois for decades,it now seems that we were doomed from the start.
I can state here unequivocally that I was never contacted by COS John Harris to put in my bid for appointment to the US Senate. It could be because Harris knows that I have no money, power, or influence or it could be that he knows that I would never engage in any pay to play schemes,especially with someone as totally stupid and untrustworthy as he or his boss.
Be that as it may, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of my supporters especially Henry and Miller who made our great crusade possible. I intend to take a few weeks off, spend some time with my family, and contemplate the future.
Rest assured, my fellow Americans, You have not heard the last from CapitolFax Bill! With your support, we shall prevail!
God, I loved that guy.
* Bill’s comments tapered off over the past several months. It turns out, he was very ill.
For the first time ever on this website, here’s a photo of our beloved friend…
Rest in peace, pal.
This place is just never gonna be the same without that guy.
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Another surge?
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jim Oberweis surged nine points in 2006, but still lost the GOP governor’s race to Judy Baar Topinka. Bill Brady surged eight points to take first pace in the 2010 primary. Another surge is apparently happening now, according to the Chicago Tribune’s latest poll…
Rauner had 36 percent support — down 4 percentage points from a month ago amid a blitz of labor union-backed TV ads attacking his business dealings as a venture capitalist.
Dillard had 23 percent, doubling his support since last month, especially among Downstate voters. The veteran state lawmaker gained while state Sen. Bill Brady and Treasurer Dan Rutherford lost support in recent weeks. Brady was at 18 percent, down from 20 percent in early February. Rutherford, who was hit with a sexual harassment lawsuit by a former employee last month, was at 9 percent — a 4-percentage-point drop from the last poll. […]
There’s still the potential for some shifting in the contest: 13 percent of those polled said they were undecided. The survey of 600 registered voters likely to cast a ballot in the Republican primary was conducted March 1-5 through live interviews by land line and cellphone. It has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. […]
Downstate, however, Rauner saw his support fall from 35 percent to 30 percent, while Dillard’s increased from 6 percent to 21 percent. Dillard now stands tied among Downstate voters with Brady, the unsuccessful 2010 nominee from Bloomington who won the primary four years ago off his showing in the 96 counties outside the city and suburbs.
[…]
The ads may have driven up unfavorable views of Rauner. While the percentage of voters who have a favorable view of Rauner remained largely the same at 47 percent, the percentage who hold an unfavorable view rose from 10 percent in early February to 21 percent in the new poll.
Expect a Dillard/Obama TV ad or some such thing from Bruce Rauner’s campaign in 3… 2… 1…
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“Don’t worry, there’s plenty of money”
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Apparently, the House and Senate Republicans are not operating out of the same budgetary playbook…
Illinois senators voted along party lines Thursday to adopt a revenue estimate for next year that is about $1 billion less than was used to create the current state budget. […]
The new revenue estimate is lower in large part because much of the temporary income tax increase is set to expire at the end of 2014, midway through the next budget year. At the same time, budget negotiators must cope with increased costs that cannot be avoided, such as for pensions, health insurance for both retirees and active workers and Medicaid. Between the higher costs and less revenue, budget negotiators are looking at a $2.3 billion hole they will have to fill in the next budget.
Senate Republicans all voted against the revenue estimate. Some accused Democrats of hiding revenue to make the budget numbers look worse than they are. They said it was part of an attempt by Democrats to build support for continuing the income tax hike. […]
The same resolution passed the Illinois House on a 112-0 vote. Some House Republicans noted that the figures were based on estimates from the legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, which has provided reliable estimates in the past. Republicans said they were also encouraged that Gov. Pat Quinn’s budget office had estimates very similar to COGFA’s.
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You just knew this was gonna happen
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Dave McKinney and Frank Main at the Sun-Times…
Both Jermalle Brown and Douglas Bufford were gang members hired to play a small role in helping combat violence on the South Side through a program hatched by Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration.
Paid $8.50 an hour with taxpayer funds to hand out anti-violence pamphlets in their South Shore neighborhood, the two low-income teens were part-time foot soldiers in the governor’s $54.5 million Neighborhood Recovery Initiative, a program he once described as “a comprehensive and concerted effort to keep our young people safe, off the streets and in school.”
Quinn launched that program a month before his 2010 election as an answer to gun carnage in the city — even though murders that year, Chicago Police would later disclose, dipped to a nearly 50-year low.
But instead of embodying a bold new way to fight bloodshed on the South Side, Bufford is now dead, and Brown is charged with his murder, putting a dramatic and deadly new blemish on the one-time Quinn showpiece, which was pilloried last week in a report by Auditor General William Holland.
At the same time they were on the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative payroll, Brown, then 19, and Bufford, 16, allegedly broke into a Grand Crossing home in July 2012 with one other man and announced a robbery in what Chicago Police believe was a gang-related crime.
It’s not clear, based on court and police records, what happened next. But Bufford was fatally shot in the back of the head with a shotgun, and Brown and an associate now face murder charges tied to the shooting.
Ugh.
* I was on the phone with someone close to Quinn yesterday who pointed out that nowhere in the Auditor General’s blistering report on the governor’s anti-violence initiative was there any evidence that gangs or other notorious types had received grant money. The implication was that the program was much better run than portrayed.
Well, so far we don’t know of any gangs getting grants, but we do know of at least one completely botched attempt to turn a gang member’s life around by having him hand out anti-violence fliers.
Yes, handing out fliers.
What fool dreamed up that stupid quackery?
Go read the whole thing.
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Yet another explanation from Dillard
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard sparred last night over the now infamous Barack Obama ad…
Brady went after Dillard for his appearance in a TV ad run by President Barack Obama’s campaign in which he stated: “Republican legislators respect Barack Obama.”
Dillard downplayed the ad. “I said 15 nice words about Barack Obama,” he said. “It was an Internet thing that ended up in an ad and I called him and I said, ‘You know you’ve got to pull that because I’m for John McCain.”
* It was an “Internet thing”? Really? From the June 27, 2007 edition of the Iowa Independent…
Sen. Barack Obama’s first two Iowa TV ads hit the air Tuesday. Emphasizing Obama’s past, the ads are intended to deflect criticism of the Democrat from Illinois as inexperienced. […]
The centerpieces of both ads are interviews with two somewhat unlikely characters: Republican Sen. Kirk Dillard of Illinois narrates the first ad, called “Carry,” which chronicles Obama’s career in the Illinois Senate. And the highlight of the second ad, titled “Choices,” is a clip from world-famous legal scholar Lawrence Tribe, who taught Obama at Harvard Law School (although, despite Tribe’s fame, Iowa Independent was unable to reach any caucus goers who were familiar with his work).
On a press conference call held in conjunction with the launch of the ads, both Dillard and Tribe were made available to reporters. Each praised Obama unequivocally during their introductions on the call.
Dillard described Obama as “someone who really carried the ball well and was instantly respected” when he got to the state senate. Dillard said he and Obama formed an unlikely “tag team, of a caucasian, suburban senator” and an African American from the inner city. [Emphasis added.]
* So, Dillard not only wasn’t taken by surprise when the ad went on the air, he helped launch the TV ad with a press call. He knew it wasn’t an “Internet thing” back then. And he effused praise for Obama during and after that conference call…
Dillard told the Associated Press today that while he expects to support whoever wins the Republcian nomination, “I would not lost a night’s sleep worrying about my young children’s future if Sen. Obama were my president because I know he would probably surround himself, like Ronald Reagan, with exceptionally experienced people.”
Oy.
Sen. Dillard has been all over the map on this issue. Eric Zorn ran a timeline in 2010 about Dillard’s various explanations and the way this ad has been used against him. It’s worth a read.
* Also, if you’d like to refresh your memory, watch that ad…
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* During the 2002 Republican gubernatorial primary, the Chicago Tribune endorsed Corinne Wood.
In 2006, the Tribune endorsed Republican Ron Gidwitz for governor.
In 2010, the Tribune went with Andy McKenna in the GOP primary.
* Besides all losing their primaries, what else did those three have in common?
Well, all of them were millionaires who were the biggest self-funders in their respective races.
* And, today, Mother Tribune did it again…
We do appreciate comity. But we think Rauner would have a much easier time wielding a veto pen. A much easier time saying No to legislative leaders.
Of the four Republicans, Rauner best communicates to citizens the indelible fact that Illinois is broken. If nominated now, in November he would force voters to choose a future for this state:
If that future resembles the failed past, it will feature lawmakers of both parties battling openly over proposed marginal changes to the derelict status quo.
If that future takes this state in a new direction, it will embrace changes wrought by governors of neighboring states with balanced budgets, healthy pension funds and lower unemployment.
The best solution for all that now cripples Illinois would be a jobless rate of 6 percent or less, with more workers bringing home paychecks and contributing tax revenues.
Of the Republicans running for governor, Rauner is the change agent who could best begin to rescue Illinois.
Never mind that he very nearly derailed the Tribune’s much-beloved pension reform bill by coming out forcefully against it. Never mind that he has dismissed the Tribune’s near to the heart workers’ comp reform as basically worthless.
Nope. They just love his style, even as they continue to bash candidates for doing just what Rauner did, opposing pension reform and workers’ comp reform.
*** UPDATE *** They endorsed Tom Cross for treasurer, but it was a tough call because of - guess what? - pension reform…
To our mind, Cross made a bad vote based on political considerations. He damaged his credibility. More damaging, he undermined the efforts of his successor, House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, to pass the bill. […]
Our endorsement goes to Cross. We wish it came with more enthusiasm.
Rauner did more to undermine that pension reform vote than Cross, but his opposition was not even mentioned.
Sheesh.
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