The big question now is how many votes Rich Whitney gets.
Gov. Rod Blagojevich maintained a sizable advantage over Republican Judy Baar Topinka even as new corruption allegations surfaced involving his close supporters, a new Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll shows.
A week before the election, the survey of 600 likely voters shows Blagojevich backed by 44 percent, Topinka supported by 29 percent and Green Party candidate Richard Whitney with 13 percent. Another 13 percent were undecided in the survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, which has an error margin of 4 percentage points. […]
The poll also found that in the race to replace Topinka in the treasurer’s office, Chicago banker Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat, has the support of 40 percent of voters compared to 23 percent for Republican state Sen. Christine Radogno of Lemont. Green Party candidate Dan Rodriguez Schlorff got 5 percent.
But nearly 30 percent of voters were undecided in the treasurer contest and large numbers had never heard of either major party candidate, despite a series of stories about questionable loans given by the Giannoulias family’s Broadway Bank, the survey showed.
Two different media companies, two different Cook County Board president polls, two widely different results. The reason? Most likely it’s because the Tribune poll is recent and has a reasonable sample size, while the Daily Herald/ABC7 poll is ancient and has a tiny sample size.
First, the Tribune poll of 484 likely voters conducted Thursday through Sunday:
Stroger leads Peraica 48 percent to 33 percent with 17 percent of voters undecidedâ€”a significant gain for the Democrat since a similar poll about three weeks ago showed the contest a virtual tie.
While Stroger has surged, Peraica’s support has slipped among voter groups who are key to his chances, according to the poll of 484 likely voters conducted Thursday through Sunday. The poll has an error margin of 5 percentage points.
The new poll shows Todd Stroger increasing his advantage among city voters beyond what had already been a significant margin. The survey found 62 percent of city voters back Stroger, compared to 50 percent almost two weeks ago. At the same time, Peraica’s support in the city was essentially unchanged at 24 percent. […]
The survey found 63 percent of Democrats now say they support Stroger, up from 59 percent in the previous poll. Stroger’s support among African-American voters increased by 4 percentage points, to 79 percent.
Peraica’s edge among suburban Cook County voters has slipped to 44 percent from 48 percent, while Stroger’s suburban support rose to 32 percent from 28 percent.
Meanwhile, the latest Daily Herald/ABC poll is of just 300 voters taken Oct. 16 to 22, meaning the margin of error is plus-or-minus 6 percentage points and some results are more than two weeks old. So, the poll doesn’t take into account many of the ads that have been aired by Stroger or much of the field work by the Democratic machine.
Even though many don’t know him, Republican board member Tony Peraica led Democratic pinch hitter Todd Stroger by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent, the Daily Herald/ABC7 Chicago poll found.
To know Stroger apparently is to not love him, poll results show. Stroger, a Chicago alderman chosen to replace his father on the ballot after the primary, was known to 87 percent of those surveyed, but supported by less than half of them. On the other hand, Peraica was unknown to 42 percent, but still favored by more than half of those polled.
“If people know Stroger and not Peraica, they’ll vote for Peraica,” said Richard Day, whose Evanston-based firm conducted the poll. “It’s remarkable.” […]
Stroger was viewed unfavorably by more than half of those polled, 53 percent, and favorably by 24 percent - a 2-to-1 negative margin. Peraica was thought of unfavorably by 24 percent and favorably by 39 percent, with 42 percent unfamiliar with him.
* Three weeks ago, the polling firm had Peter Roskam slightly ahead of Tammy Duckworth, 47-46. Now, they’ve got Duckworth edging Roskam 48-47. Crosstabs here. Click below for a larger image.
* Two weeks ago, they had Congresswoman Melissa Bean neck and neck with Dave McSweeney, 47-44. Now they’ve got Bean ahead by a more comfortable 50-45.
However - and this is a big however - for the second time in a row the organization has failed to poll the third candidate in the race, rendering this poll useless — The Archpundit has convinced me that the third party candidate is probably picked up in the “other” category. I’d still like to see the candidate in, but the poll is not totally useless. Crosstabs.
If they can’t even figure out that there are three candidates in this race, you gotta wonder whether they can be believed on anything else.
Even more so than with the Daily Herald’s congressional polling, all of these gubernatorial numbers are postively ancient, since the poll was conducted Oct. 16-22, according to the paper. In other words, they sat on these results for eight days and some of the numbers are over two weeks old.
The governor led Topinka by 16 percentage points, 48 percent to 32 percent, in the poll. And in a sign voters view this as the proverbial “None-of-the-Above” election, little-known Green Party candidate Rich Whitney polled 12 percent support, likely an unprecedented showing for a third-party candidate in Illinois. […]
In this campaign, though, women voters backed Blagojevich by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. And the governor led Topinka by 13 percentage points, 45-32 percent, in suburban Cook, and by 12 percentage points, 47-35 percent, in the DuPage, Lake, Kane, McHenry and Will collar counties.
That campaign is working, the poll shows. Asked to rate Topinka on a 1-10 scale, those surveyed rated her a 4.0 - lower than any statewide candidate this fall and even lower than President Bush, who rated a 4.2. Topinka was rated a 5.6 just two years earlier.
Blagojevich’s own rating stood at 4.6, dropping a full point from two years ago, a likely indication the seemingly endless stream of stories about corruption allegations in his administration is taking a toll.
*** UPDATE *** The Tribune/WGN poll isn’t on the Web yet, but I’m told the results are: 44-29-13
For the second time in a row, Constituent Dynamics has released a poll on the 10th CD that doesn’t jibe with any other numbers.
Two weeks ago, they had Congressman Mark Kirk ahead of Dan Seals 46-44. Nobody believed it. They also had Melissa Bean in a tough race and nobody believed that, either, until the Daily Herald poll suggested she was in trouble.
This time, they’ve got Dan Seals ahead of Congressman Mark Kirk 48-46. Gitcher crosstabs here. Click below for a larger image.
*** UPDATE *** I posted this in comments, but thought it should be elevated to the main page. Here is the methodology this outfit uses:
Majority Watch, a project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, comprises telephone surveys conducted using interactive voice recognition (IVR) technology.
In each of 30 contested congressional districts, a representative sample of 5,000 likely voters based on previous vote history was selected from state voter registration files. 1,200-1,300 interviews were completed in each district [â€¦]
Completed interviews were compared to the voter registration file to validate results. Interview were discarded when the surveyed demographic responses did not match the voter file information of the sampled likely voter. In this manner, approximately 1,000 interviews were validated for each district.
Final results were weighted to represent the likely electorate by demographic factors such as age, sex, race and CD geographical subarea. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than 3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all voters in a CD were polled.
Most politicians like to play it safe. Not Tim Nieukirk.
He’ll blindside firefighters rushing to save cats caught in a tree. He won’t climb into bed with special interests, but he will with your sister. And he goes after a breed of criminal that most politicians prefer to ignore - the Hamburglar.
Nieukirk is the star of a series of over-the-top campaign ads promoting his write-in campaign for Illinois governor.
The campaign consists entirely of homemade ads on YouTube.com and a MySpace.com page, but Nieukirk says he’s filed the necessary paperwork in every county so that any votes he collects will be officially counted.
See all of Nieukirk’s “campaign ads” here. His MySpace page is here. And you can buy Get Nieuked gear here.
Now that the AP has done a piece, maybe the Chicago TV people will finally show an interest. After all, Nieukirk’s campaign is solely on video. What could possibly be better for a light and fluffy TV feature?
Steve Rhodes has a spot-on, in-depth take on the relationship between Stu Levine and Rod Blagojevich. It cuts right through the phony spin coming out of the governor’s campaign and is a must-read for any reporter covering this controversy.
(T)he more telling aspect of Levine’s deal in my mind was the implication of Blagojevich’s pal, Chris Kelly, in wrongdoing. Kelly and the recently-indicted Tony Rezko have been the governor’s two closest advisors. If the governor was merely betrayed by his two closest advisors, that’s still a pretty damning indictment (no pun intended) of his judgement in who he has given the keys to state government to. And, just to give the governor the benefit of the doubt for sake of argument, if he never paid attention to press reports swirling about Rezko and Kelly and never called them in and read them the riot act, he failed to do his job. If he never bothered to ask about what his father-in-law, Ald. Dick Mell once alleged - that state board and commission seats were being sold for $50,000 campaign contributions - he was derelict. (Mell recanted that allegation in the face of a libel suit, but perhaps only to clear a path for fededral investigators, much as county and state officials have done.) In addition, Joe Cari has told federal investigators that he was offered a state board or commission seat in exchange for a campaign contribution, even though Blagojevich has tried pass off Cari’s allegations as “triple hearsay” - which they are not.
Giving the governor the benefit of the doubt, in other words, doesn’t help his case because of his utter failure of vigilance after riding into office as a reformer.
Of course, I’m not so charitable as to give the governor the benefit of the doubt.
He goes on to remind people that there were big questions about Levine when Blagojevich reappointed him to the hospital board and the Teachers Retirement System board. For instance, after Levine resigned from the Gaming Board in 2001, press reports revealed that he hadn’t disclosed investments in Argosy Gaming Co., an Illinois casino owner that he had regulated. And then there’s this…
“Although Levine was known inside Illinois as a Republican rainmaker, his political contributions at the national level skewed toward Democratic officeholders. The burgeoning relationships between Levine, Cari, [former New York comptroller and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Carl] McCall, and the Blagojevich administration grew cozier in late 2003, when Levine paid more than $4,000 to fly the governor and some of his campaign operatives to fund-raising visits to Austin, Texas, and New York City, according to campaign reports and other sources. McCall hosted one fundraising event held in an exclusive New York club, and [Cari’s] HealthPoint paid for $3,500 in meals at another funder in the city the next day.”
Blagojevich knew full well who Levine was. If he didn’t question what Levine was up to, that alone makes him unfit for office
Go read the whole thing.
*** UPDATE *** The governor defends his wife’s business dealings with a state contractor.
Gov. Rod Blagojevich on Monday said anyone who suggests his wife got private real estate deals with a state contractor because he is governor is acting like a “Neanderthal” and being “sexist.”
Appearing Downstate to announce $6.8 million in state grants to build a river research station in Alton, Blagojevich was asked about a recent Tribune report that the his wife, Patricia, got more than $113,000 in real estate commissions through a woman who holds a longstanding no-bid state contract. The woman’s husband, a banker, also has business pending before state regulators.
“She has every right to pursue her business and, you know, there’s a sexist quality to that story-somehow moms who have their own businesses, who are women, can’t do things that way-that’s implicated in that story. So there’s a sexist component to that story,” Blagojevich said.
The governor then got into a black SUV and shut the door, before climbing back out to continue his point.
“Working women are very much a part of the real life experience today for families across our state. And to suggest she doesn’t have the right to have her own business and pursue her own business is Neanderthal and sexist,” the governor said before getting back in his vehicle and being driven away.
I put this here because Rhodes wrote about this topic as well.
“It’s unfair and completely ridiculous to suggest she should keep track of every client she does business with to see if they have contracts with the state,” said Blagojevich spokeswoman Abby Ottenhoff, of Patti Blagojevich’s real estate business.
Lawyers vet their cases for conflicts of interest within their firms. Reporters try to be similarly vigilant. Plus, Patti Blagojevich only has a few clients a year. What’s ridiculous is that a real estate agent whose husband is the governor wouldn’t keep track of whether her clients had contracts with the state. Unless she didn’t want to know - or already did.
[Updated from last night and bumped up. Also, FYI, the Daily Herald will be releasing a new poll on the governor’s race at about six o’clock tonight. A new poll for the county board president’s race will be released at 10 pm. Check back for links if you can.]
One brief bit of caution: Some of these Daily Herald/ABC7 poll numbers are eleven days old because the 6th District poll was conducted Oct. 19-24 and the 8th District survey was taken Oct 18-24. The margin of error for both polls is 4 percentage points.
The freshest numbers, according to pollster.com, come from Democratic pollster Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal. The survey of 400 likely voters taken Oct. 23-24 had Duckworth ahead 44-43. But here’s the narrative from the Daily Herald on its poll:
In the 6th Congressional District race to succeed retiring Rep. Henry Hyde of Wood Dale, Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam led Democratic Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth 46 to 42 percent […]
Of Roskam’s 46 percent, 27 percent said they were strong supporters, with 19 percent less strong in their support. Duckworth had 28 percent say they were strong backers, with 14 percent less strong. […]
Only 36 percent of those surveyed thought the country was headed down the right path, with 54 percent saying it’s going in the wrong direction and 10 percent not sure. Bush carried the district in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote.
Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran who opposes the war, is getting support from 66 percent of those who feel the country is on the wrong track. Roskam, running as the candidate of the party in control of the federal government, is backed by 22 percent of the wrong-direction voters.
The Daily Herald has the situation far worse for Bean, with the incumbent polling 8 points under 50 percent and the third party candidate eating up votes:
To the north, 8th District Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean of Barrington held a 42 percent to 39 percent lead over Republican investment banker David McSweeney of Barrington Hills [third party candidate Bill Scheurer is at 8 percent] […]
Although Bean hasn’t gone out of her way to bash Bush, she gets support from 62 percent of those polled who think the country is on the wrong track. Scheurer picks up 12 percent of those voters. […]
McSweeney captured only 68 percent support among those identifying themselves as strong Republicans and just 55 percent among those leaning Republican. That presents perhaps McSweeney’s biggest challenge. “If McSweeney can persuade and energize his natural base of Republican support, he will win the race,” Day said.
McSweeney’s support is based more along party lines: 22 percent saying they back him because they dislike Bean, with another 21 percent saying they back him because he’s a Republican. About 17 percent cited McSweeney’s issues, with an additional 9 percent specifying his opposition to abortion rights as the reason they’ll vote for him.
If this poll is right, and if those Republicans come home for McSweeney, this might be a major upset in the making.
*** UPDATE *** Duckworth’s last TV ad of the season is below.
This question was suggested by state Rep. Larry McKeon:
Most candidates have a campaign website. What do you find good and what do you find bad about the websites you have visited? Why? If you were going to design one what should a really good website contain?
There was an interesting little question in the Post-Dispatch poll released over the weekend about electric rates. Even when told that the utilities are claiming that extending the current electric rate freeze could drive them into bankruptcy, a solid majority of 56 percent still wanted the freeze to go ahead.
QUESTION:As you may know, electric rates are scheduled to sharply increase in Illinois next year as the result of deregulation of the market. Some say the state should freeze those rates because there isn’t adequate competition in the market yet. The electric industry says continuing the freeze could drive it into bankruptcy. In your opinion, should the state:
â€œThe power companies are going to need a hell of a PR campaign'’ to win over the public to the rate hikes, predicted pollster Del Ali. â€œIt’s not enough to threaten to go bankrupt, because people don’t care.'’
That was apparent in comments by poll respondents such as Cheri Akers of Hamilton.
â€œI would be more than happy to see it freeze,'’ she said. â€œI don’t think they would go bankrupt. I think the companies are bluffing.'’
My syndicated newspaper column is about… what else?… the Levine plea.
Corrupt political insider Stu Levine was hit with so many federal indictments earlier this year that he literally was facing a life sentence behind bars.
Last week, he copped a plea that will let him walk free after five years and seven months in what probably will be a minimum security prison — in exchange for his cooperation.
We can discern one of two things from this: 1) Much of the federal case was weak and letting Levine off relatively easy was a face-saving move by U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald; or 2) Levine has agreed to help the feds reel in some very big fish and used that prospect to negotiate a much better deal.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I find myself leaning toward “Door Number 2.”
There was no hint of an apology, nor any expression of embarrassment nor regret for even unwittingly keeping Levine in a position of trust. There was no acceptance of responsibility whatsoever, not even the indirect sort. He didn’t even do that thing Mayor Daley does where he acts like he’s angry about somebody letting him down.
It is hard to feel sorry for Levine. Harder still to have sympathy for one of his dearest friends, Edward “Fast Eddie” Vrdolyak. But one of the twists of this case that had to be wrenching for Levine is that in trying to save himself from a lifetime behind bars, he apparently had to wire up on and sell out someone he truly cared about. And so he secretly recorded conversations that would give the FBI and the U.S. attorney’s office the chance to do what they have dreamed of doing for decades: build a case against the Dark Lord of the 10th Ward.
Vrdolyak, a former alderman who once ran for Chicago mayor, is a millionaire many times over, thanks to the taxpayers of Cicero and other hapless municipalities that paid him seven figures annually for his “advice and counsel.” One of his ill-fated advisees, former Cicero Town President Betty Loren Maltese, sits in federal prison now after being convicted of corruption.
Though he has been investigated a dozen times, the catlike Vrdolyak has easily had nine lives. Until now.
- Who are the “certain State of Illinois officials” with whom Rezko allegedly had clout to influence appointments to state boards?
In the early Blagojevich years, who in the governor’s office–other than the governor himself, of course–had the authority to suggest formal appointments to state boards whose decisions had huge financial impacts?
- Did any staff member ever express concern to Blagojevich that Rezko was exerting influence over his appointment process?
- Who, if the indictment is correct, preserved a scheme to steer decisions on teacher pension system investments by derailing a proposed consolidation of that fund with two others?
- Was anyone in the governor’s office aware of the alleged plot to extort $1.5 million in political contributions from an investment firm?
- What does the Rezko indictment–and now the Levine plea agreement–say about your 2002 campaign pledge to end “business as usual” in Illinois if you became governor?
- And the seventh question: Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan says the governor’s office should make public any federal subpoenas issued to his administration–and stop withholding them from view. Illinois government belongs to the people, Governor. Why won’t you show them the subpoenas?
The Sun-Times has a “getting personal” feature that it does with candidates [and maybe other people, I’m not sure]. Here are Judy Baar Topinka’s responses:
1. Last movie you felt like walking out of? If I pay money for a movie, and it’s not good, I sit there in hopes that it will get better.
2. iPod, CD player or radio? Radio.
3. TV show you try not to miss? NY Times Discover Channel — I like the archeology segments.
4. Weirdest trick you can do? Make a face like a Sharpei dog.
5. Food you wouldn’t eat on a bet? Monkey brains or cockroaches.
6. Worst punishment you got as a kid? Making me sit quietly.
7. Book all Americans should read? 1984
1. Last movie you felt like walking out of? “I don’t know that I’ve ever walked out of a movie.”
2. iPod, CD player or radio? CDs. “But I do now have a little iPod that I rarely listen to.”
3. TV show you try not to miss? “I watch sports on TV, you know, when I’m home. And we’ll watch movies. And I love old movies.”
4. Weirdest trick you can do? “I can spin a basketball on all five fingers of my right hand. Oh, and I can memorize 43 tangible, concrete words.”
5. Food you wouldn’t eat on a bet? “Liver. Right? Oooooofff. Can’t.”
6. Worst punishment you got as a kid? Getting spanked by his father for interfering with a spanking his brother was getting.
7. Book all Americans should read? “A phony answer is Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America. Everybody recommends that book, and I bet none of ‘em read it. . . . Can I think about that one?”
* Rhodes: Lawyers vet their cases for conflicts of interest within their firms. Reporters try to be similarly vigilant. Plus, Patti Blagojevich only has a few clients a year. What’s ridiculous is that a real estate agent whose husband is the governor wouldn’t keep track of whether her clients had contracts with the state. Unless she didn’t want to know - or already did.
* Plan links minimum pay in state to inflation - Gov, mayor urge $1 hike, yearly boosts
* Last toll on state open-road tolling project finished