Oberweis is wintering in Florida
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mary Ann Ahern caught up with Republican US Senate candidate Jim Oberweis in Florida…
NBC 5 has learned that Oberweis flew out of Illinois Saturday, and is at his million-dollar Bonita Beach Florida condo until the end of the week.
When reached by phone, Oberweis would not confirm his whereabouts, and when he was repeatedly asked whether he’s in Illinois, he replied, “I think you’ve figured out by now that I’m not answering that question.”
Oberweis did say he’s “really focused on November,” where he hopes to battle incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin.
He won’t be back until Friday, Ahern reports.
* Here’s the audio of the TV story…
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* There should probably be another zero on that amount to be truly effective, but Sen. Kirk Dillard’s campaign just reported $400,000 in contributions from AFSCME, the IFT and the IEA.
Jim Edgar kicked in another $50K.
I’ll have more for subscribers about this tomorrow.
*** UPDATE *** Via Fred Klonsky’s blog, AFSCME’s Henry Bayer sent this e-mail to his members today…
By channeling our dollars directly to the Dillard campaign, which can purchase crucial television time at roughly half the rate of the independent expenditure campaign, we can get that information out most effectively.
When we started the independent expenditure campaign, we had not yet endorsed a candidate. We did not know who was best positioned to defeat Rauner.
The campaign has entered a new phase.
The independent expenditure effort did a good job of slowing Bruce Rauner’s momentum.
While he is still the frontrunner, Rauner can be beaten.
That’s why it is so important that we redouble our efforts to recruit volunteers for AFSCME phone banks and encourage each of our members to cast their vote in the Republican primary for Kirk Dillard.
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Poll: Hardiman at 36 percent
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kevin McDermott…
A new poll by Strive Strategies shows Quinn with 64 percent of the Democratic vote, to Hardiman’s 36 percent.
In a news release, the polling firm calls that a “solid lead” and presents it as good news for Quinn. It isn’t. Hardiman has no political base, no money, and has received no serious media coverage. It’s unlikely that one-third of Democratic Illinois voters even know who he is, let alone are supporting him.
Which means this is a classic “anyone-but-Quinn” protest vote — from within Quinn’s own party.
I don’t know much about this polling firm, but I’ve been planning my own poll this week. I’ll let you know what happens.
* There are no silver medals in campaigns, but the more support Hardiman gets, the weaker Quinn’s gonna look when the primary is over.
Quinn has always had trouble with female voters, and Hardiman is winning 40 percent of Democratic women.
* Also, We Ask America is planning to release its GOP tracking results at around 8 o’clock tonight. Click here at that time and use this post to comment below.
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* From a press release…
Governor Pat Quinn today announced key campaign staff for his 2014 re-election bid. In addition to the campaign’s Chief Strategist Bill Hyers, the Governor named his Campaign Manager, Senior Advisor, Director of Operations, Deputy Press Secretary and digital and turnout powerhouse firm 270 Strategies. The latest hires join The Mellman Group and Joe Slade White & Company, the Governor’s nationally renowned pollster and political strategy and media firm who also worked on his 2010 campaign.
“I’m proud to have a dedicated and capable team who knows how to work hard and win,” Governor Quinn said. “We will run a strong grassroots campaign built for success in the 21st century.”
The Governor named former Deputy Chief of Staff of Legislative Affairs in the Governor’s Office Lou Bertuca as Campaign Manager. As the campaign’s top ambassador, Bertuca will lead day-to-day campaign operations. Carrie Glenn- a seasoned campaign operative - will serve as Senior Advisor to the campaign, providing critical field leadership, operations support and voter turnout expertise. Bertuca and Glenn will work hand in hand with Hyers, an Illinois native and one of the most highly-sought after campaign leaders in the nation.
In addition, other key staff members named today include: Deputy Director of Operations Sean Floyd, formerly of Bill de Blasio’s successful campaign for mayor of New York City as well as Deputy Press Secretary Izabela Miltko, formerly of SEIU Local 1. Governor Quinn also announced the hiring of 270 Strategies, a digital consulting and marketing firm led by former Obama National Field Director Jeremy Bird. The firm specializes in 21st century grassroots organizing and cutting-edge digital analytics.
More details below:
Bill Hyers - Chief Strategist Hyers most recently managed Bill de Blasio’s successful campaign for mayor of New York City. He also led Governor Steve Beshear’s successful gubernatorial campaign in Kentucky, Mayor Michael Nutter’s successful campaign in Philadelphia and Kirsten Gillibrand’s first race for Congress in 2006. In addition, Hyers managed President Obama’s campaign in Pennsylvania in his 2012 bid for re-election and was Midwest Regional Director for his 2008 campaign.
Lou Bertuca - Campaign Manager Bertuca has worked for Governor Quinn for eight years in a variety of capacities, starting when Quinn was serving as Lieutenant Governor in 2007 and later becoming one of the Governor’s senior advisors. Prior to joining the campaign, Bertuca served as Deputy Chief of Staff in the Governor’s Office and Deputy Chief of Staff at the Illinois Tollway Authority.
Carrie Glenn - Senior Advisor Glenn has extensive campaign experience, which includes holding director and senior field positions in four states for President Obama’s 2008 campaign. Glenn most recently oversaw the Montana Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign. She will provide critical expertise on field operations, grassroots organizing and voter turnout.
Sean Floyd - Director of Operations Floyd previously worked as the Director of Operations for Bill De Blasio’s successful mayoral bid in New York City. He also served as the Director of Operations in Pennsylvania for President Obama’s re-election campaign.
Izabela Miltko - Deputy Press Secretary Miltko served as the Media Relations Specialist for the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 1, overseeing press outreach across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Texas and Wisconsin. Her experience also includes working in Senator Dick Durbin’s press office, as well as Statehouse reporting in Springfield.
270 Digital Strategies - Founded by former National Field Director for President Obama’s re-election campaign Jeremy Bird, 270 Strategies is a next-generation consulting firm that specializes in 21st century, cutting-edge digital strategies and data driven ground game. The 270 Strategies team used grassroots organizing to build their 21st century turnout machine on the historic Obama re-election campaign as well as work on the 2008 campaign.
The Mellman Group - The Mellman Group is one of the nation’s top polling firms, providing opinion research and strategic advice to political leaders, public interest organizations, Fortune 500 companies and government agencies. Clients include some of the nation’ stop political leaders, numerous U.S. Senators, Governors, members of Congress, and state and local officials.
Joe Slade White & Company –Joe Slade White & Company is a Democratic political strategy and media firm, whose clients have included Presidential candidates, U.S. Senators, Governors, members of Congress, and Mayors, including Vice-President Joe Biden and the former Governor of Michigan Jennifer Granholm. In 2012, White helped elect the only Democratic woman governor in the country, New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan.
So, the guy who has had serious problems dealing with the General Assembly names his former Deputy Chief of Staff of Legislative Affairs as his campaign manager?
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Rauner wants to know a lot
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* At about the six minute mark of his interview, Bruce Rauner told WBEZ he wants to have a “cooperative” relationship with state legislators. And then he said this…
“I want to get to know every legislator on a first name basis. I want to get to know them, their families, their hopes, their dreams, their fears, their weaknesses, their vulnerabilities. I want to get to know them well.”
Emphasis added for obvious reasons.
Be careful out there. He’s bringing the heat.
* Meanwhile, at about the 9:30 mark of this WTTW interview with GOP treasurer candidates Tom Cross and Bob Grogan, Mr. Grogan was asked about a comment he’d made earlier that running for office meant dealing with “a bunch of bullies”…
“Whether it’s the fake people on Facebook or on the Internet that are going out there and making up things about you and doing that sort of stuff. It’s rough and tumble… It’s not for normal people.”
Asked if he regretted running, Grogan took a very deep breath and said…
“You know, there are many a times that I do regret getting into it. I’m too stubborn and committed to turn around. Any time when you’re missing ball games with the kids and all that, obviously there’s a good deal of regret.”
He went on to say he felt he had to “stand up” and run, however.
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* I told subscribers about this development earlier this morning. Greg Hinz followed up…
In a critical development in the GOP race for governor, a union-backed group that had spent millions of dollars on TV ads blasting front-runner Bruce Rauner has decided to end its campaign, just as the race enters the crucial last week.
Michael Murray, a spokesman for the Illinois Freedom PAC, said the group has spent $3.1 million so far ripping Mr. Rauner but will spend no more, effective immediately.
Mr. Murray denied a report in Capitol Fax that unions that funded the effort concluded Mr. Rauner now is too far ahead to lose the race, and didn’t want to throw good money after bad. Rather, he insisted, “We feel we have accomplished our goal.”
“We wanted to highlight some issues with Bruce Rauner that the middle-class families of Illinois needed to be made aware of,” he said. “Now that we have achieved that goal, and all the top candidates are on the air, it’s up to their campaigns to make their final case.”
Yeah, OK. They “accomplished their goal” and now they go dark a week out? Right.
*** UPDATE 1 *** The full statement from Mike Murray…
We wanted to highlight some issues with Bruce Rauner that the middle class families of Illinois needed to be made aware of. You saw from the Tribune poll and Rauner’s reaction that we did just that. Now that we have achieved that goal, and all the top candidates are on the air, it’s up to the campaigns to make their final case.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Tribune…
Illinois Freedom raised more than $3.6 million and had begun a heavy schedule of TV advertising in early February. But a television industry official who asked not to be identified said the PAC’s spending on TV dropped noticeably on March 1 and fell even more this week. Murray said the group’s ads will run through the end of the week.
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* Pfleger does have a point, but the governor’s anti-violence program is in definite need of a thorough legislative examination…
South Side activists denounced “cul-de-sac” critics Monday and called for more cash — not less — for anti-violence programs such as Gov. Pat Quinn’s troubled Neighborhood Recovery Initiative.
The Rev. Michael Pfleger and former state Sen. Alice Palmer were among those who appeared at a news conference at The Ark of St. Sabina in the Gresham neighborhood to support the now disbanded program that was assailed in a blistering audit last month and is now facing a steady drumbeat of negative headlines. […]
“It angers me when people from Lemont and Palatine and Springfield, and suburbs all around Illinois, love to launch their attack on programs that seek to reach the most at-risk youth in our city,” Pfleger said. “It also bothers me that they never come to the South Side or to the West Side to say, ‘What can we do? How can we help? How can we stop this carnage of blood in our streets?’”
Pfleger and others shared troubling statistics — 216 school-age children killed in Chicago in 2010, 92 percent of black male teens unemployed in 2012 — and said success stories within the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative are being ignored, including “thousands of lives that were saved.”
* More…
“There are good and bad things about every state program, but why must we always concentrate on the bad when it involves youths on the South and West Sides?” said Pfleger, pastor of St. Sabina Church in Auburn Gresham. “I am sick and tired of people who do not live in our community and have never been to our community telling us what’s good for us.” […]
“Across the state 85 percent of black teens are unemployed. Across the city it is 89 percent,” said Jack Wuest, executive director of the nonprofit Alternative Schools Network, citing a January report by his organization. “Young blacks males in the city living with families earning less than $20,000 a year are 95 percent unemployed. This is an epidemic that has to be addressed in a broader fashion.”
* But…
Alice Palmer, a community activist, worked with 80 South Shore youths in programming supported by the initiative in 2010, including some who went on to get further training.
“These young people were well-received by businesses because they brought a positive message,” she said. “We have one young lady who is in nursing school thanks to the training and motivation she received from the neighborhood program.”
* According to an internal e-mail exchange posted by the Sun-Times in its original story, Ms. Palmer apparently knew the guy who allegedly killed his cohort during an alleged home invasion…
In a 2012 email, Betts identified Alice Palmer as his organization’s point person in the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative’s Mentoring Plus Jobs program for South Shore, of which Brown and Bufford were a part.
Palmer served in the Illinois Senate, involuntarily relinquishing her seat in 1997 to Barack Obama after being knocked off the ballot because her nominating petitions were insufficient. While Betts would not do so, a Quinn administration source confirmed the woman Betts referred to is the former state senator. Messages left at multiple phone numbers tied to Palmer were not returned Thursday.
“Dr. Palmer has first-hand familiarity with the youth involved in this tragic incident,” Betts said in his Aug. 8, 2012, email response to Barbara Shaw in which he promised to develop a “more formal response strategy” to the murder.
It would be nice to see her testify about this mess.
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Mr. “.01 percent”
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Sun-Times’ profile of Bruce Rauner…
Within minutes of sitting for an interview, gubernatorial front-runner Bruce Rauner makes a bold correction about his personal fortune when asked if he is among the so-called 1 percent of the wealthiest Americans.
“Oh, I’m probably .01 percent,” said Rauner, who owns nine homes, and made $53 million last year. […]
Rauner quickly grew perturbed when asked if the comparisons are true that he’s the “Mitt Romney of Illinois.”
“I am a very different person from Mitt Romney,” Rauner said. “I drink beer. I smoke a cigar. I use a gun. I ride a Harley. My grandparents lived in a double-wide trailer. I’m a salesman. He’s an analyst.” […]
“I get a crowd going to a standing ovation. I never saw [Romney] do that,” Rauner said.
* Sen. Kirk Dillard responded…
In a campaign statement today, Dillard, a Hinsdale Republican, called Rauner “out of touch,” and said he was concerned with “how” Rauner made his money.
“There’s no way someone who admits being in the top .01 of America’s richest people can relate to working families,” Dillard said. “How can someone with nine luxury homes relate to someone struggling to make ends meet? The answer is obvious: he can’t”
* As did somebody from Romney’s former campaign…
A former top Romney 2012 campaign official scoffed at Rauner’s comments.
“I don’t know what cave Bruce was stuck in during 2012, but of the 60+ million people who voted for Mitt Romney, tens of thousands would regularly show up to stand and cheer at our rallies,” the official told TPM.
* Rauner’s campaign responded to Dillard…
“Attacking success, on top of taking hundreds of thousands in campaign contributions from some of Pat Quinn’s biggest allies, is why Kirk Dillard should be running in the Democrat primary,” said Rauner campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf.
So far, though, there’s been no response to the Romney folks.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It’s been quite a lousy morning. I wasn’t feeling all that well, and then I finally woke up only to find that my Gmail account “has been disabled due to suspicious activity.” Trying to fix that now.
So, while I do that, how about we do this…
* The Question: Are there any local primary races that you are following? Who’s gonna win?
…Adding… Gmail is finally working. I had a real problem getting my computer to deal with the new password, but that’s fixed now as well. Hopefully, I can return to some sort of normalcy soon. What a lousy day.
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A little hypey
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP headline…
Study: Fiscal ’scarlet letter’ costs state extra $80M
* From the story…
The study, conducted by DePaul University professor Martin Luby, a visiting researcher at the U of I institute, and Tima Moldogaziev of the University of South Carolina, set out to determine whether interest rates were even higher than other states’ rates in similar situations. They used a “’scarlet letter’ metaphor to note the hypothesized incremental risk premium demanded by investors on bonds that carry the name ‘Illinois.’” […]
“That’s above what the state should have been paying based on our worst-in-the-nation credit rating,” Luby said. “That’s one expensive reputation.”
OK, but we’re talking two-tenths of one percent, or about $16 million a year on average.
Yes, that money could’ve been better spent elsewhere, but it’s not a hugely gigantic pile of cash in the state’s overall budget.
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* From the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s latest poll…
Now that Illinois has passed a law allowing registered trained citizens to carry loaded handguns in public, do you feel more safe or less safe?
More safe 31.8%
Less safe 52.3%
Neither/about the same (VOL) 12.9%
Other/Don’t know 3.0%
* From the Institute…
Voters in the Chicago suburbs responded similarly to the statewide average, with 54.6 percent saying they felt less safe. Those in the City of Chicago were much more likely to say they felt less safe (64.5 percent). In downstate Illinois, opinion was evenly split, with 41.9 percent saying they felt more safe and 40.5 percent saying they felt less safe.
* The following results compare 2013 answers (first result) to the 2014 poll…
Gun Rights vs. Gun Control
What do you think is more important? Protecting the right to own guns, or controlling gun ownership?
Response 2013 2014
Protecting the right to own guns 31.3% 41.5%
Controlling ownership 59.5% 53.0%
Other/Don’t know 9.2% 5.6%
Exceptions to Concealed Carry
Do you believe there should be exceptions to allowing concealed weapons in public places—excluding them from such places as schools, college campuses, shopping malls, and movie theaters?
Response 2013 2014
Yes 71.3% 56.7%
No 20.7% 35.7%
Other/Don’t know 8.0% 7.6%
Armed Guards in Schools
Do you favor or oppose putting more armed guards or police in schools?
Response 2013 2014
Favor 46.3% 53.1%
Oppose 44.8% 38.3%
Other/Don’t know 8.8% 8.6%
* Methodology…
The 2014 Simon Poll interviewed 1,001 registered voters across Illinois. It has a margin for error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that if we were to conduct the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances the results would vary by no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the results obtained here. The margin for error will be larger for demographic, geographic and response subgroups.
Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas. Cell phone interviews accounted for 30 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available. Customer Research International reports no Illinois political clients. The survey was paid for with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund.
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The governor’s totally messed up program
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
“There was no money allocated at all before the election of 2010,” Gov. Pat Quinn told Chicago TV reporter Charles Thomas about allegations that the governor had spent millions in state anti-violence grants to boost his flagging election campaign. Quinn used his to defend himself against growing criticism about a devastating state audit of the anti-violence grants.
But what the governor said in his own defense was not true.
According to Illinois Auditor General Bill Holland, Quinn’s administration signed contracts with 23 local groups on October 15th, about three weeks before 2010’s election day. Each of the groups, hand-picked by Chicago aldermen, were promised about $300,000 for a total of around $7 million.
“That is allocating money,” Auditor General Holland emphatically said last week about the awarding of those state contracts.
A Quinn spokesman countered that the governor actually meant to say that no money was distributed to the groups prior to election day. But the groups’ leaders, many with political ties, had signed state contracts in their hands. They knew that bigtime state money was on the way soon.
As you probably already know, Holland’s audit uncovered massive problems with the grants, finding “pervasive deficiencies” in the “planning, implementation, and management” of the grants doled out via the Governor’s Neighborhood Recovery Initiative. The program was “hastily implemented,” expenses were not adequately monitored, and a third of Chicago’s “most violent Chicago communities” weren’t included in the program.
The governor met with a group of ministers in the Roseland community in August of 2010. Black ministers have long held a strong position of power in Chicago’s African-American political culture, so Quinn was undoubtedly eager to placate them ahead of election day.
Five days after the meeting, the Illinois Violence Prevention Authority was informed by the governor’s office that Quinn wanted to establish a $20 million crime reduction program. Less than two months after the initial meeting, the governor upped the grant program to $50 million for Chicago communities alone. Chicago aldermen were asked to submit lists of groups that would receive the money and that list alone was used to solicit Requests for Proposals from the groups. Contracts were signed on October 15th.
The audit’s language is without a doubt the harshest since Rod Blagojevich was governor.
Some Republicans asked the Auditor General last week to forward his findings to the US Attorney.
One of the items pointed to by the Republicans is a passage from the Illinois Violence Prevention Authority’s September 30th, 2010 board minutes, when an official from the governor’s office told the board that “the Governor’s Office is committed to allocating some of the funds for this Initiative immediately and will allocate the rest after the election.”
That quote, the Republicans say, is proof that the election was an issue with the program. He was, some of them say, trying to “buy” the 2010 election. But that’s not really my read.
Back when Jim Edgar was Secretary of State, he oversaw a literacy grant program. Not coincidentally, lots of African-American churches with schools received grants from Edgar. The plan was simple and well thought out: Use state money to carefully buy influence with an important constituency.
But the creation of Quinn’s anti-violence initiative was completely reactive. Quinn was under enormous pressure from leaders of exploding neighborhoods to act fast.
The idea here appeared to be to throw something - anything - together as quickly as he could to get the angry ministers and neighborhood leaders off his back. Allowing aldermen to pick the local agencies further ensured that the squeakiest wheels would be greased.
What Quinn purchased wasn’t votes, it was peace with a powerful and important constituency. It got him out of the headlines. He was no longer part of the problem.
There are those who say politics and governing must be completely separated, but that just can’t happen in a democratic republic.
How many of the legislators carelessly talking to the press about impeachment in this case have introduced bills or voted for or against legislation to the benefit of a powerful local constituency? All of them.
There’s no doubt, however, that this grant program went far beyond normally accepted practices, to the point of throwing them out. But the really serious legal problems will likely be found in the middle and the bottom - perhaps some of the aldermen who recommended the agencies and any of the connected folks who got the grants.
* Meanwhile…
West Garfield Park ranks in the top 20 most violent areas on the city map.
In 2011 and 2012, the West Side neighborhood got more than $2.1 million from Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration through his Neighborhood Recovery Initiative anti-violence program, state records show.
But instead of all that public money going toward quelling the shooting and other violence there, a substantial chunk of it — almost 7 percent — appears to have gone into the pocket of the husband of Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown.
Benton Cook, Brown’s spouse, was paid more than $146,401 in salary and fringe benefits from state grant funds to serve as the program coordinator with the Chicago Area Project, the agency the Quinn administration put in charge of doling out anti-violence funding to West Garfield Park, state records show.
And no comment yet from the governor’s office.
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Burying the debate
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* If you really don’t want to debate your under-funded opponent and you go ahead and do it anyway, you probably ought to do it like this…
In their only live joint appearance before the March 18 primary election, Republican congressional candidates Erika Harold and Rodney Davis clashed over Davis’ vote to trim veterans’ benefits in a federal budget deal.
The one-hour debate was held at 7 a.m. today at Bloomington-Normal radio station Cities 92.9 FM, a station whose signal doesn’t reach Champaign-Urbana or any of the larger communities in the 13th Congressional District. Only a portion of Bloomington-Normal is in the district, which is represented by Davis of Taylorville.
However, the magic of the Interwebtubes means the debate is forever available to anyone with a computer. Click here.
* From the debate coverage…
“I think it’s unconscionable to have voted for something that cut veteran’s pensions. And I would disagree with Congressman Davis, he was not the person who led the charge on restoring those benefits.”
[Harold] said Davis defended the cuts in a television interview.
“That’s not true,” Davis interjected.
“He was justifying the cuts as saying that they would not apply to disabled veterans, and he said that they would be applying to people who could have a second job. I think it’s a mischaracterization to say that he was the one who led it,” said Harold, a Harvard Law School graduate and former Miss America. “Finally I would say that if members of Congress fixed it, what was the point of having those cuts in the first place? Either they didn’t read the bill carefully or, what I think happened, is they understood after the American public responded negatively that this is unacceptable and they went back and fixed it.” […]
[Davis] said he was asked what the impact of the cuts would be “if they weren’t fixed.”
“And that’s the quote they used and that’s where you say that I support these cuts, and that is just wrong and disingenuous and frankly dishonest,” Davis charged.
* Meanwhile…
Davis raised $328,000 from Jan. 1 to Feb. 26, according to his pre-primary filing with the Federal Election Commission. Davis also reported $1.1 million in cash on hand. […]
Former judge Ann Callis, a candidate touted as a top recruit by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, brought in $102,000 in the pre-primary time period. The haul left her with $449,000 in cash on hand as of Feb. 26.
Physics professor George Gollin, a Democrat running against Callis in the primary, raised $76,000. He reported $227,000 in cash on hand, some of which includes an initial loan Gollin made to his campaign. […]
Davis’ GOP primary challenger, Erika Harold, a former Miss America winner, raised $61,000 in the pre-primary period. She reported $137,000 in cash on hand.
* And here’s a new TV ad by Democrat George Gollin…
* Script…
Narrator: Political insider Ann Callis folded to the tea party agenda. Ann Callis said this about cutting Social Security…
Audio of Callis: We’re going to have to see what’s there and what we remove
Narrator: Cut Social Security? Ann Callis wants what the tea party wants
The sentence in question was actually only part of a sentence. According to the Big Debbie’s House Blog, when asked if she’d favor making people work longer before they could retire, Callis said no. The blogger documented several other times where Callis opposed cutting Social Security benefits and quotes the Illinois AFL-CIO president…
Ann Callis has the support of thousands of working men and women in Illinois because she is a true fighter for the middle-class and will protect Social Security and Medicare. Gollin’s ad is clearly misleading and uses a quote out of context, and this desperate attack from George Gollin is totally unwarranted.
Subscribers have an update on poll results in that primary race.
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Proft, Matune hit
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Click the pic to see a larger version of a new flier sent out in defense of Rep. Ron Sandack, who is in the fight of his life against GOP primary challenge Keith Matune…
Hat tip: Illinois Truth Team, which appears to be a HGOP-related creation.
* Meanwhile, Carol Marin wrote a column bashing Dan Proft for allegedly sending out a mailer blasting Sandack that featured two men kissing. Click here to see the mailer. But Proft didn’t send that mailer. It was sent by the Illinois Family Action PAC. Marin promptly apologized in a rewritten column, but added this…
Proft argues there is no excuse for my error. He is correct. There is not.
That said, there was more to the original column, and let’s consider that. In my view, some of the mailers sent by Proft’s own PAC, Liberty Principles, appear homophobic.
That includes a mailer against Sandack that shows Mayor Rahm Emanuel in a leotard and a line reading, “Now we know where Ron Sandack learned how to dance.”
Proft, in a followup email to me, writes, “I do not believe that Rahm is gay.”
Another image on a Proft mailer shows a photo of Sandack in the foregound and a gay activist in the background with the headline, “Strange Bedfellows.”
Proft argues I misinterpret that as well, saying the mailer “chronicled (the gay activist’s) radical activism, house being raided by the FBI . . . comparison of Scott Walker to Mubarak and the like.”
Proft adds in his email to me, “You want to make the race about gay marriage. I do not. . . . To accuse me of gay bashing is little more than conservative bashing.” Noting that he has supported two candidates who endorsed either civil unions or same-sex marriage, Proft maintains it is economic policy principles that guide his commitment to a candidate.
“I’m a gay basher?” he writes. “Utter and complete bulljive.”
Subscribers know much more about this race, including details of a blistering new anti-Matune TV ad.
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Question of the day
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz…
If Mr. Dillard really has momentum, the Rauner campaign has the resources to whack him back. The campaign already has up spots criticizing his legislative votes on tax and spending issues. But much of the chatter in political circles last week was about whether the Rauner campaign will question Mr. Dillard’s union ties in paid TV ads, and whether it will remind voters that the senator once cut a television commercial for then-presidential candidate Barack Obama.
Team Rauner isn’t saying what it will do. I’d take that as indication it’s aware that a last-minute, heavily negative campaign would hurt not only Mr. Dillard but potentially backfire on Mr. Rauner, with the Dillard campaign loudly reminding voters that Mr. Rauner is the one who has donated to Mr. Emanuel and other Democrats such as former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. […]
Four years ago, Mr. Brady was the GOP nominee against incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, and Mr. Brady still harbors some goodwill among the GOP faithful, particularly downstate.
Mr. Brady also has another path to victory: light turnout. That would mean that traditional Republicans are dominating the party, rather than outraged “time for change” newcomers to whom Mr. Rauner has pitched his campaign.
* Kurt Erickson…
Walking into the Capitol Wednesday with a lawmaker-turned-lobbyist, we chatted about whether Dillard, with the help of the unions, could somehow turn the numbers around in his favor.
“That’s a very big hill to climb in such a short amount of time,” rhymed the former suburban Republican senator.
Later in the day I talked with a veteran member of the Senate — a Democrat — who cautioned that it was still too early to call the race. After all, he said, no one saw Brady — except perhaps Brady — emerging out of the cornstalks to win the 2010 GOP primary.
* Doug Finke…
The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees added its endorsement to those Dillard previously won from the Illinois Education Association and the Illinois Federation of Teachers. With the endorsements should come money, which anyone running against multi-millionaire Bruce Rauner is going to need.
The question is how much the endorsements will do for Dillard when the votes are cast.
Everyone knows that turnout in primary elections is sparse. Those most likely to vote are the committed party faithful. Among Republicans, that often means more conservative members of the party, which explains why you often see GOP candidates tacking to the right in the run-up to a primary.
You have to figure that the more conservative wing of the Republican Party will be more receptive to Rauner’s position that public employee unions, or at least their leaders, have been bad for the state and are the cause of many of the state’s problems. So if those are the people more likely to vote in a primary election, it may not do Dillard all that much good to pick up endorsements from public employee unions.
Then again, I talked to somebody over the weekend who saw a tracker that had Dillard in fourth place. Yes, that’s very weird. I don’t know whether to believe those results or not. Strange days.
…Adding… Looks like a normal off-year Democratic turnout and stronger GOP turnout in Chicago. From the Chicago Elections Commission…
2010 Early Voting (Gubernatorial Primary)
……………………………………….DEM…………REP
Week 1 (22-16 days out)…….9,533………786
Week 2 (15-09 days out)…..11,060……1,023
Total for Two Weeks…………20,593……1,809
2012 Early Voting (Presidential Primary)
……………………………………….DEM……….REP
Week 1 (22-16 days out)……9,993…….1,267
Week 2 (15-09 days out)…..10,750……1,382
Total ………………………………20,743……2,649
2014 Early Voting (Gubernatorial Primary)
……………………………………….DEM……….REP
Week 0 (22-16 days out)……NO EARLY VOTING
Week 1 (15-09 days out)…..9,268…….1,753
* The Question: Odds that Brady, Dillard or even Rutherford could surge enough to win the primary?
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Mouth, both sides
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune editorial…
Late last year, many lawmakers made an exceedingly difficult vote. They voted to save this state and its pension funds from financial ruin. […]
Here’s the danger in the March 18 primary election. If several lawmakers lose because they took a tough vote, fewer lawmakers will be willing to make the next tough vote. […]
There are only a handful of challenges in this primary for seats in the House and Senate, but several of them are taking on outsized importance. Voters, if you’re in one of those districts, reward courage. Don’t settle for the lie that soothes.
And yet they didn’t “reward courage” by endorsing Bill Brady, the only Republican gubernatorial candidate who voted for/supported the pension reform bill.
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Today’s numbers
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
Attorney General Lisa Madigan today announced that her office collected nearly $1 billion in 2013 on behalf of the State of Illinois.
Through a combination of litigation and collection efforts, Madigan’s office generated more than $32 for every tax dollar appropriated to the office in 2013. Since Madigan took office, total collections have reached over $10 billion.
“My office works to maximize revenue to support critical state programs and services, and we do this while maintaining the lowest level of taxpayer funding since 1997,” Madigan said. “Since my first term as Attorney General, we’ve secured over $10 billion in revenue to fund state operations.”
In 2013, Madigan’s office collected $992,581,592.32 on behalf of the state. The Attorney General’s office generated nearly $374.5 million of this amount through collections litigation for damage to state property, child support, unpaid educational loans, fines and penalties. In addition, the Attorney General’s office collected nearly $273.6 million through tobacco litigation and nearly $243.6 million in estate tax revenues.
Additionally, due to a settlement with JPMorgan Chase & Company, Madigan’s office recovered $101 million for the state’s pension systems to cover losses sustained from investments in mortgage-backed securities that contributed to the economic collapse in 2008.
Madigan’s office operated in 2013 with an appropriation from the state’s general revenue fund of $30,843,200 – the lowest level of funding from taxpayer dollars that the office has received since 1997. Attorney General Madigan’s office generated $32.18 for every state general revenue tax dollar the office received in 2013.
The $992.6 million generated in 2013 does not include more than one billion dollars in benefits that Madigan’s office successfully recovered through mediation and litigation, which is distributed directly to Illinois residents, businesses and organizations often in the form of restitution.
For instance, Attorney General Madigan’s Consumer Fraud Bureau recovered and saved more than $1.1 billion on behalf of defrauded Illinois residents and businesses in 2013, a sum that includes relief that Illinois residents received directly from the $25 billion national foreclosure settlement that Attorney General Madigan secured in conjunction with her state counterparts, the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Over the last two years, Illinois residents have directly received nearly $2 billion in financial relief in the form of principal reductions, loan refinancing and cash payments as a result of the settlement, which was the second largest ever obtained through joint action of state attorneys general.
Madigan’s office also reached several major settlements with the pharmaceutical industry in 2013. Among the most notable is a $1.6 billion joint state and federal settlement with Johnson & Johnson and its subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals over its illegal marketing of antipsychotic drugs Risperdal and Invega. Illinois received $23.6 million under the agreement.
Madigan’s office also has secured more than $85 million in unpaid gasoline sales taxes through a joint enforcement initiative with the Illinois Department of Revenue. This ongoing investigation is aimed at cracking down on gas station owners who have evaded paying sales taxes by falsely under-reporting sales figures, causing the loss of millions of dollars in state tax revenue.
Thoughts?
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Two endorsements, two very different reasons
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The SJ-R goes with Kirk Dillard for governor…
Dillard, a suburban state senator from Hinsdale since 1993 and former chief of staff for former Illinois Gov. Jim Edgar, has a record of moderate views on fiscal and economic matters involving the state. In a state whose books are so dramatically out of whack, why look for moderation in a leader? Because reason and moderation — not heavy-handed, uncompromising pledges to take a jackhammer to Illinois government — are how good leaders get things done.
* But the Moline Dispatch and the Rock Island Argus go with Bruce Rauner…
Based on their records and long commitment to making Illinois a better place to live, we believe Sens. Dillard and Brady and Treasurer Rutherford could slide easily into the governor’s office and get to work within the system to try to change it. But is incremental change at glacial speed what Illinois needs? Or is it time to explore shaking up a system that has made one of the best states in the nation one of the worst in far too many categories?
* Related…
* After years of running together, Brady and Rutherford now running against each other
* Tom Kacich: It’s time for ugly part of campaigning
* Doubek: No Profiles In Courage
* Kass: In Illinois Republican primary, no white knights
* GOP Governor’s Race: 8 Issues You Should Know
* GOP governor candidates cite proudest accomplishments
* Local Historian Shares Thoughts on Governor’s Race
* 5 questions with Bruce Rauner
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Brady’s money problems
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* To put this into a little perspective, Bruce Rauner reported raising more than three times this much in one day last week…
State Sen. Bill Brady’s bargain-basement bid for governor is finally up on the television airwaves.
A spokesman for the Bloomington Republican said the campaign has purchased $100,000 in TV advertising time as the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination heads into its final days.
The 30-second ad is a “nice looking piece that sells Bill Brady,” spokesman Dan Egler said.
Brady has trailed his three opponents in fundraising through most of the 2014 campaign season. Records show he had about $273,000 in his campaign account at the end of 2013 and has raised about $27,000 since then.
* I asked Comcast what their numbers showed. They said Brady’s claimed total may “include other systems elsewhere in the state,” because their tracking has it at about $20,000 “spread across Chicago and our Central IL markets.”
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SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Recent cable TV buys
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Comcast…
Committee to Elect Will Guzzardi
$48,833
3/5 - 3/17/14
Northwest and Southwest zones
AEN, AMC, CNN, FOOD, HALL, LIFE, MNBC, OWN, OXYG, TBS, TNT, TWC, USA, VH1, WE,
All dayparts bought
Chicagoans United for Economic Security [Anti Christian Mitchell]
Agency: 76 Words, DC
$2,030
Targeting IL HD 26
3/11 – 3/17/14
Networks: BET, CNN, MNBC, TVL, TWC
Dayparts: 5-9A, 9A-4P
Syscodes: / zones / $ by syscode
1796 / Chicago Central/ $880
1797 / Chicago City North / $1,150
Total Buy - $2,030
House Republican Organization [Sandack]
Agency: Jamestown Associates, DC
$27,420
Targeting IL HD 81
3/10 – 3/17/14
Networks: FXNC, MNBC
All dayparts bought
Syscodes / zones / $ by syscode
1737 / Aurora-Naperville / $10,940
1733 / Wheaton –St Charles / $9,580
6217 / Oakbrook / $6,900
Total Buy - $27,420
Liberty Principles PAC, Chicago [Anti Sandack]
Direct buy from client
$59,010
Targeting IL HD 81
3/10 – 3/17/14
Networks: AEN, CNN, DISC, ESPN, FXNC, HIST, TNT
All dayparts bought
Syscodes: / zones / $ by syscode
1737 / Aurora-Naperville / $38,110
6217 / Oakbrook / $20,900
Total Buy - $59,010
Liberty Principles PAC, Chicago [Anti Pihos]
Direct buy from client
$59,015
Targeting IL HD 48
3/7 – 3/17/14
Networks: AEN, CNN, DISC, ESPN, FXNC, HIST, TNT
All dayparts bought
Syscodes: / zones / $ by syscode
1737 / Aurora-Naperville / $24,950
1733 / Wheaton –St Charles / $20,995
6217 / Oakbrook / $13,070
Total Buy - $59,015
* Also…
Carol Ammons for State Representative [Jakobsson district Dem primary]
Champaign-Sprngfld-Dtr
BET,BRVO,BTIL,CMDY,CNN,ESPN,HIST,LIF,MNBC,VH1
3/7/14 through 3/17/14
$3,298.84
More, including a Kirk Dillard buy, is here. [Fixed link.]
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Rutherford drama costs the state more money
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* After spending $27,000 in taxpayer money on his internal investigation, Treasurer Dan Rutherford now has three $200 an hour state-paid attorneys to defend himself against a federal lawsuit…
The state will pay three attorneys up to $200 per hour to represent Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford in a lawsuit filed by a former employee.
Edmund Michalowski accused Rutherford last month of sexually harassing him and forcing him to do campaign work on state time.
Rutherford, who is seeking the Republican nomination for Illinois governor, has denied the claims. He’s said the accusations have made his campaign more difficult.
Documents from the attorney general’s office say Robert Shuftan, Daniel Fahner and Bilal Zaheer have been appointed special assistant attorneys general. They’ll be paid using taxpayer funds from the treasurer’s office.
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* Both the Tribune and the Sun-Times have published profile pieces on Bruce Rauner. Most interesting nugget in the Tribune’s story…
The only way to fix the state’s fiscal woes, Rauner insists, is to effectively do away with the current pension system, though he would not seek to eliminate benefits already earned by public workers. Instead, Rauner says, going forward they all should be shifted into 401(k)-style plans that don’t guarantee minimum retirement benefits but give workers the option to invest the money.
Workers in the private sector were long ago shifted to the more volatile 401(k) plans, he argues. However, Rauner would not have the state pay to extend Social Security coverage to those same public workers, even though that is legally required for those in the private sector whether or not they have 401(k)s. [Emphasis added.]
…Adding… From a legislator…
Going to a 401(k) doesn’t necessarily trigger Social Security. In fact, as long as the employer + employee contribution into the 401(k) is at least 7.5% Social Security can be optional.
In other words, Rauner’s horrible idea isn’t illegal. But it’s still a horrible idea.
Also, he does want to eliminate some benefits. Rauner would freeze pension benefit payments at their current amount forever. No inflation protections at all for anyone. That’ll most certainly diminish pensions over not that much time.
* Sun-Times…
Myles Mendoza, the executive director of Ed Choice Illinois, said when he’d get a voicemail from Rauner, he’d save it.
“It’s like the voice of God coming through your phone. It’s sort of this roaring, commanding voice,” Mendoza said, adding: “You can hear the passion coming through.” Mendoza, who said he doesn’t get funding from Rauner, has known him since 2011 to be an advocate for education reform and having a leadership style that mixes confidence and warmth.
“It was a combination of being informed, being charismatic enough to get your attention and having the sort of sheer will to direct things in the way that they have to go,” Mendoza said. “I think he absolutely will stoke the fire and once the fire’s going, he will move things in the direction they need to go.”
Mendoza said Rauner has told him you can’t get people’s attention by being a wall flower. But he denied Rauner would have a scorched earth approach to leading.
“Bruce is going to get your attention, but it’s not going to be scorched earth all the way. I’ve seen communications where — he just has a way of making sure you don’t ignore things. He is a very loving person. He has this juxtaposition between strength and compassion,” Mendoza said. “Who else in this universe is a successful businessman but really spends most of their time learning and investing in education? Why is he doing this? Because he cares about disadvantaged kids. There’s like a handful of people who care about this stuff on his level. He cares about it, he’s like consumed by it. I think that’s why he’s running for governor, because he wants to change things.”
Discuss.
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More on “Bill”
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I stopped by our late commenter “Bill” Naegele’s wake yesterday and spoke with his widow and his daughter. They both greatly appreciated your kind comments about Bill after we learned of his passing on Friday. As you might imagine, there was a big turnout for the wake. People loved the man.
I also spoke with some of his fellow union officials and we kicked around the idea of maybe setting up a scholarship fund. Bill taught in a suburban community college, so the focus would be there. More details as I get them.
* Bill’s daughter also commented on our post over the weekend…
I would like to thank you all for the happiness this blog brought to Bill. He truly enjoyed all the banter and hell raising he experienced here with each of you. Reading the kind words and memories y’all have shared since his passing have been a great source of comfort for us.
I’ll leave you with one more smile thanks to Bill- his final wishes were that we take his ashes and scatter them off of the pier in the town in Florida where he loved to vacation. The town offers the option of engraving a message in a plank of the pier and Bill asked us to make one in his honor that says, “I never caught a fish here…and now I never will.”
* In the entire history of blogging, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an outpouring of sadness over the death of a commenter anywhere. We’ve built such a strong community here together that many of us feel truly close to one another.
Also, some of our commenters are so active that they almost have their own blogs within a blog. Bill was one of those folks. He had become an integral part of this website and our community and his passing has left a huge hole. I want to create a permanent memorial for him somewhere on the blog’s front page and I’m currently mulling how to do it. Maybe you could help.
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Reader comments closed for the weekend
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* For Bill. Get up and dance…
…Adding… Bill’s arrangements are as follows…
Visitation will be from 3:00 to 7:00 pm. Sunday, March 9th and Memorial Service will be at 7:30 at:
Beverly Ride Funeral Home
10415 S. Kedzie
Chicago, IL
In lieu of flowers the family asks to make a donation to your favorite charity
We’ll be picking a charity next week.
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Question of the day
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Eric Zorn…
Brady’s new one-liner — “the more I hear Bruce Rauner speak, the more he sounds like Rod Blagojevich” — isn’t nearly as preposterous as it sounds.
Though Blagojevich’s policy impulses differed from Rauner’s, he, too, ran as a populist outsider whose superior moral judgment and iron will would rout the corrupt power elite in Springfield and spark a rebirth of Illinois, as though our problems are simple and governors are kings.
We’ve seen that movie already. We know how it ends.
Meh.
Blagojevich was clinically insane. There are gonna be some big fights if Rauner is elected, but at least they will probably be about something that makes some sense. Rod’s GRT fight lasted months beyond all reason, for instance.
* And, yes, there is a very strong populist vein to be mined in this state. Rod had his schtick, Quinn does it, Rauner has also tapped into it.
It’s no coincidence that both Quinn and Rauner insist on staying at cheap hotels. Rauner has his $18 watch, Quinn has his decades old briefcase “Betsy.”
Quinn is more legit, however. He’s a frugal guy who lives a relatively modest private life. Rauner may have some frugal tastes, but his Manhattan condo with a moat around it shows he has an ultra-extravagant, 0.01 percenter side as well. I’m betting he doesn’t fly coach on business trips like Quinn does. Then again, Quinn loves that state plane.
* The Question: How would you compare and contrast Pat Quinn and Bruce Rauner?
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Matune attempts an explanation
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’d really like to believe the guy, because mainly I don’t care all that much about what people did in their 20s. But, Rep. Sandack is right that Keith Matune’s stories have changed so much that I don’t know what to think about his latest defense…
Court records obtained by the [House Republican Organization] and released to the media show that Matune was arrested in January 1994 for allegedly entering a woman’s dormitory through a window. In April 1994 he signed a plea agreement and the court withheld prosecution in exchange for two payments of $50, good behavior and promising not to enter the premises again, according to the documents.
Matune said Thursday that the building was his previous college fraternity house, was vacant, and that he and his friends entered the building with keys, not through a window, for a nostalgic reasons after finishing college.
This is the second incident the organization has released information on regarding Matune.
“It’s a desperate act of a desperate campaign who knows they’re not going to win this election,” Matune said Thursday. “It’s the whole centerpiece of the Ron Sandack campaign. They have absolutely nothing to run on so they have to smear and defame someone’s name.”
Sandack said in response that, “I’ve run a positive campaign. People that are paying attention know where I am on the issues that matter to the families in the 81st. Mr. Matune’s past is his past, and everyone makes a mistake. But his failure to be honest about it is a troubling act.
“Anyone that’s been listening to him [knows that] he continually changes his story – or he’s forgotten he’s been arrested, or that he told the [media outlets] he’s never been the arrested.”
If Matune wins this primary, he’s gonna cost the House Republicans a fortune this fall.
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“Bill”
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From IFT President Dan Montgomery…
It is with sadness that I inform you of the passing of IFT Vice President/Cook County College Teachers Union Legislative Chairman Bill Naegele.
Information on services will be forwarded as it is received.
* Bill Naegele was one of the most infamous commenters we ever had on this blog.
“Bill,” as we knew him, delighted in firing up other commenters by supporting Rod Blagojevich through thick and thin. Man, he got into some wicked fights.
It was mostly an act. He delighted in messing with people, making them defend their arguments, putting a burr under their saddles.
Bill and I eventually became friends and I got to experience the born contrarian up close and personal. He was one of the funniest, down to earth, in your face guys I ever knew.
* Bill introduced himself to me years ago at the Old State Capitol. The Statehouse was being remodeled, so the House held session at the old place. I took a photo and posted it on the blog. He wanted to maintain his anonymity, so we used a photo of the back of his head…
* On the day Blagojevich was arrested, Bill posted a comment that will live forever with people who’ve been around here awhile…
Heh.
* By then, most commenters had warmed up to Bill and he became a very popular guy. We even tried to get him appointed to Barack Obama’s Senate seat. OneMan put this one together, as I recall…
* We created a Facebook page and Bill jumped all the way in. Here’s his “acceptance speech”…
My friends,
On this great day for Illinois, at this moment, we now have 200 members of the Capitol Fax Bill for Senate Group. Let me just say that I am overwhelmed and humbled by your support. It is after much soul searching and after conferring with my family that I am proud to announce that should our movement be successful and Governor Blagojevich offers me the opportunity to serve you, the people of Illinois, as your Senator, I will accept the appointment.
It is time for a change in America! We have assembled a team that is unprecedented in national politics.
My fellow Americans now is the time to show the bureaucrats in Washington D.C. how government should be run for the people not for the special interests. Except for myself and my supporters, lobbyists will have no place in the Capitol Fax Bill Senate office. Our job is not done. Call or write Rod Blagojevich today and demand change we can believe in.
Demand Bill as your Senator! God Bless you and God bless America!
* When Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris instead, Bill issued this statement…
My fellow Illinoisians,
Today is a sad day for our state. Despite our best efforts to clean up politics in this state by running a campaign clean and free of the pay to play syndrome that has plagued Illinois for decades,it now seems that we were doomed from the start.
I can state here unequivocally that I was never contacted by COS John Harris to put in my bid for appointment to the US Senate. It could be because Harris knows that I have no money, power, or influence or it could be that he knows that I would never engage in any pay to play schemes,especially with someone as totally stupid and untrustworthy as he or his boss.
Be that as it may, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of my supporters especially Henry and Miller who made our great crusade possible. I intend to take a few weeks off, spend some time with my family, and contemplate the future.
Rest assured, my fellow Americans, You have not heard the last from CapitolFax Bill! With your support, we shall prevail!
God, I loved that guy.
* Bill’s comments tapered off over the past several months. It turns out, he was very ill.
For the first time ever on this website, here’s a photo of our beloved friend…
Rest in peace, pal.
This place is just never gonna be the same without that guy.
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Another surge?
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jim Oberweis surged nine points in 2006, but still lost the GOP governor’s race to Judy Baar Topinka. Bill Brady surged eight points to take first pace in the 2010 primary. Another surge is apparently happening now, according to the Chicago Tribune’s latest poll…
Rauner had 36 percent support — down 4 percentage points from a month ago amid a blitz of labor union-backed TV ads attacking his business dealings as a venture capitalist.
Dillard had 23 percent, doubling his support since last month, especially among Downstate voters. The veteran state lawmaker gained while state Sen. Bill Brady and Treasurer Dan Rutherford lost support in recent weeks. Brady was at 18 percent, down from 20 percent in early February. Rutherford, who was hit with a sexual harassment lawsuit by a former employee last month, was at 9 percent — a 4-percentage-point drop from the last poll. […]
There’s still the potential for some shifting in the contest: 13 percent of those polled said they were undecided. The survey of 600 registered voters likely to cast a ballot in the Republican primary was conducted March 1-5 through live interviews by land line and cellphone. It has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. […]
Downstate, however, Rauner saw his support fall from 35 percent to 30 percent, while Dillard’s increased from 6 percent to 21 percent. Dillard now stands tied among Downstate voters with Brady, the unsuccessful 2010 nominee from Bloomington who won the primary four years ago off his showing in the 96 counties outside the city and suburbs.
[…]
The ads may have driven up unfavorable views of Rauner. While the percentage of voters who have a favorable view of Rauner remained largely the same at 47 percent, the percentage who hold an unfavorable view rose from 10 percent in early February to 21 percent in the new poll.
Expect a Dillard/Obama TV ad or some such thing from Bruce Rauner’s campaign in 3… 2… 1…
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“Don’t worry, there’s plenty of money”
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Apparently, the House and Senate Republicans are not operating out of the same budgetary playbook…
Illinois senators voted along party lines Thursday to adopt a revenue estimate for next year that is about $1 billion less than was used to create the current state budget. […]
The new revenue estimate is lower in large part because much of the temporary income tax increase is set to expire at the end of 2014, midway through the next budget year. At the same time, budget negotiators must cope with increased costs that cannot be avoided, such as for pensions, health insurance for both retirees and active workers and Medicaid. Between the higher costs and less revenue, budget negotiators are looking at a $2.3 billion hole they will have to fill in the next budget.
Senate Republicans all voted against the revenue estimate. Some accused Democrats of hiding revenue to make the budget numbers look worse than they are. They said it was part of an attempt by Democrats to build support for continuing the income tax hike. […]
The same resolution passed the Illinois House on a 112-0 vote. Some House Republicans noted that the figures were based on estimates from the legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, which has provided reliable estimates in the past. Republicans said they were also encouraged that Gov. Pat Quinn’s budget office had estimates very similar to COGFA’s.
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You just knew this was gonna happen
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Dave McKinney and Frank Main at the Sun-Times…
Both Jermalle Brown and Douglas Bufford were gang members hired to play a small role in helping combat violence on the South Side through a program hatched by Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration.
Paid $8.50 an hour with taxpayer funds to hand out anti-violence pamphlets in their South Shore neighborhood, the two low-income teens were part-time foot soldiers in the governor’s $54.5 million Neighborhood Recovery Initiative, a program he once described as “a comprehensive and concerted effort to keep our young people safe, off the streets and in school.”
Quinn launched that program a month before his 2010 election as an answer to gun carnage in the city — even though murders that year, Chicago Police would later disclose, dipped to a nearly 50-year low.
But instead of embodying a bold new way to fight bloodshed on the South Side, Bufford is now dead, and Brown is charged with his murder, putting a dramatic and deadly new blemish on the one-time Quinn showpiece, which was pilloried last week in a report by Auditor General William Holland.
At the same time they were on the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative payroll, Brown, then 19, and Bufford, 16, allegedly broke into a Grand Crossing home in July 2012 with one other man and announced a robbery in what Chicago Police believe was a gang-related crime.
It’s not clear, based on court and police records, what happened next. But Bufford was fatally shot in the back of the head with a shotgun, and Brown and an associate now face murder charges tied to the shooting.
Ugh.
* I was on the phone with someone close to Quinn yesterday who pointed out that nowhere in the Auditor General’s blistering report on the governor’s anti-violence initiative was there any evidence that gangs or other notorious types had received grant money. The implication was that the program was much better run than portrayed.
Well, so far we don’t know of any gangs getting grants, but we do know of at least one completely botched attempt to turn a gang member’s life around by having him hand out anti-violence fliers.
Yes, handing out fliers.
What fool dreamed up that stupid quackery?
Go read the whole thing.
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Yet another explanation from Dillard
Friday, Mar 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard sparred last night over the now infamous Barack Obama ad…
Brady went after Dillard for his appearance in a TV ad run by President Barack Obama’s campaign in which he stated: “Republican legislators respect Barack Obama.”
Dillard downplayed the ad. “I said 15 nice words about Barack Obama,” he said. “It was an Internet thing that ended up in an ad and I called him and I said, ‘You know you’ve got to pull that because I’m for John McCain.”
* It was an “Internet thing”? Really? From the June 27, 2007 edition of the Iowa Independent…
Sen. Barack Obama’s first two Iowa TV ads hit the air Tuesday. Emphasizing Obama’s past, the ads are intended to deflect criticism of the Democrat from Illinois as inexperienced. […]
The centerpieces of both ads are interviews with two somewhat unlikely characters: Republican Sen. Kirk Dillard of Illinois narrates the first ad, called “Carry,” which chronicles Obama’s career in the Illinois Senate. And the highlight of the second ad, titled “Choices,” is a clip from world-famous legal scholar Lawrence Tribe, who taught Obama at Harvard Law School (although, despite Tribe’s fame, Iowa Independent was unable to reach any caucus goers who were familiar with his work).
On a press conference call held in conjunction with the launch of the ads, both Dillard and Tribe were made available to reporters. Each praised Obama unequivocally during their introductions on the call.
Dillard described Obama as “someone who really carried the ball well and was instantly respected” when he got to the state senate. Dillard said he and Obama formed an unlikely “tag team, of a caucasian, suburban senator” and an African American from the inner city. [Emphasis added.]
* So, Dillard not only wasn’t taken by surprise when the ad went on the air, he helped launch the TV ad with a press call. He knew it wasn’t an “Internet thing” back then. And he effused praise for Obama during and after that conference call…
Dillard told the Associated Press today that while he expects to support whoever wins the Republcian nomination, “I would not lost a night’s sleep worrying about my young children’s future if Sen. Obama were my president because I know he would probably surround himself, like Ronald Reagan, with exceptionally experienced people.”
Oy.
Sen. Dillard has been all over the map on this issue. Eric Zorn ran a timeline in 2010 about Dillard’s various explanations and the way this ad has been used against him. It’s worth a read.
* Also, if you’d like to refresh your memory, watch that ad…
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* During the 2002 Republican gubernatorial primary, the Chicago Tribune endorsed Corinne Wood.
In 2006, the Tribune endorsed Republican Ron Gidwitz for governor.
In 2010, the Tribune went with Andy McKenna in the GOP primary.
* Besides all losing their primaries, what else did those three have in common?
Well, all of them were millionaires who were the biggest self-funders in their respective races.
* And, today, Mother Tribune did it again…
We do appreciate comity. But we think Rauner would have a much easier time wielding a veto pen. A much easier time saying No to legislative leaders.
Of the four Republicans, Rauner best communicates to citizens the indelible fact that Illinois is broken. If nominated now, in November he would force voters to choose a future for this state:
If that future resembles the failed past, it will feature lawmakers of both parties battling openly over proposed marginal changes to the derelict status quo.
If that future takes this state in a new direction, it will embrace changes wrought by governors of neighboring states with balanced budgets, healthy pension funds and lower unemployment.
The best solution for all that now cripples Illinois would be a jobless rate of 6 percent or less, with more workers bringing home paychecks and contributing tax revenues.
Of the Republicans running for governor, Rauner is the change agent who could best begin to rescue Illinois.
Never mind that he very nearly derailed the Tribune’s much-beloved pension reform bill by coming out forcefully against it. Never mind that he has dismissed the Tribune’s near to the heart workers’ comp reform as basically worthless.
Nope. They just love his style, even as they continue to bash candidates for doing just what Rauner did, opposing pension reform and workers’ comp reform.
*** UPDATE *** They endorsed Tom Cross for treasurer, but it was a tough call because of - guess what? - pension reform…
To our mind, Cross made a bad vote based on political considerations. He damaged his credibility. More damaging, he undermined the efforts of his successor, House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, to pass the bill. […]
Our endorsement goes to Cross. We wish it came with more enthusiasm.
Rauner did more to undermine that pension reform vote than Cross, but his opposition was not even mentioned.
Sheesh.
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This just in… Another pension lawsuit filed
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* 4:46 pm - The State Universities Annuitants Association has filed its lawsuit against the pension reform law. Click here to read it.
RNUG’s evening plans will probably have to be changed. But help him out in comments with your own take.
The lawsuit was filed in Champaign County, by the way. The other pension lawsuits have been consolidated in Sangamon County.
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* The House Republicans just sent out a press release documenting Keith Matune’s arrest record. As you know, Matune is challenging Rep. Ron Sandack in the GOP primary.
The HGOP release talked about Matune’s public indecency/resisting arrest charges and the DuPage County bust for allegedly bouncing a check in Virginia, but this other arrest was news to me…
Arrest 3: Charged with criminal trespass: gaining entry to a woman’s dormitory through a window a year after leaving college
Direct from court documents:
On January 17, 1994, Keith Matune knowingly and intentionally entered the Shoemaker Cooperative after having been denied entry as evidenced by his having to enter through a window.
On January 26, 1994, the Court is advised that Matune has been arrested on warrant and posted bond. The Court orders Matune to appear in court in person on February 14, 1994. The Court advises that if Matune fails to appear a re-arrest warrant will be issued.
On February 14, 1994, Matune enters a plea of not guilty and requests trial by jury. The court sets a trial date for June 21, 1994.
On April 18, 1994, Matune signs a plea agreement and the court withholds prosecution, but orders Matune to show written proof of completion of all conditions of probation (2 payments of $50, good and lawful behavior, and not to enter the premises again).
* Kinda creepy. And check this out…
Arrest 2/conviction: Convicted of Public Indecency/Charged with Resisting Arrest – Matune does not disclose conviction on his teaching application in May, 2013 (Which is a crime in itself)
Direct from certified court documents:
On December, 18, 1992, in Tippecanoe County, Indiana, Keith Matune did knowingly or intentionally, in a public place, appear in a state of nudity. Matune also did knowingly or intentionally: forcibly resist, obstruct or interfere with a law enforcement officer. The prosecuting attorney for the State of Indiana filed both charges with affidavit supporting probable cause. Matune appears before the court in Sheriff’s custody.
On April 7, 1993, Matune withdraws his plea of Not Guilty and enters a plea of Guilty to the charge of public indecency. Matune is sentenced to 1 year in jail, the sentence was suspended and Matune was placed on probation for 1 year having to meet the following conditions: pay court costs, maintain good and lawful behavior, and complete any program of counseling recommended for him by his counselors in the State of Virginia. (Matune gave law enforcement and the courts a Virginia address.)
Emphasis was added to point out that less than a year after Matune was put on one-year probation, he was busted again for breaking into that women’s dormitory.
* Now, about that “first” arrest…
Arrest 1: Felony warrant of arrest issued in Montgomery Co., Virginia
On February 3, 1991, Matune wrote a bad check for $500. On March 26, 1991 a felony warrant was issued for the arrest of Keith Matune, a hearing date was set for April 24, 1991 and Matune failed to appear. The warrant was for a felony charge of larceny by check in the amount $500 (not $150 as Matune claims).
Fugitive from justice: felony charge in Illinois
On May 3, 1991, Keith Matune was pulled over in Downers Grove for driving with bright headlights. During this stop, a routine check on the offender revealed an N.C.I.C. warrant for Matune’s arrest out of Montgomery Co., Virginia. Matune was then taken into custody. The Montgomery County Sheriff then notified the Downers Grove police that they “will immediately initiate the extradition process to return him to Montgomery County.” The DuPage County state’s attorney then authorized an additional felony charge of “fugitive from justice.” Matune was booked and taken to DuPage County jail. Court records show bail was set at $20,000.
On May 23, 1991, Matune appeared in DuPage County to face the felony charge of “fugitive from justice.” Court records state that Matune “fled the Commonwealth of Virginia with the intent to avoid prosecution for that [larceny] offense.”
The extradition was only cancelled after Matune was forced to pay restitution.
* OK, so if you look at the original Virginia arrest warrant, you’ll see that the man who swore that Matune wrote a check “with the intent to defraud, knowing that there were insufficient funds in the account to pay said check,” was a guy named Edward Jasie.
Ed Jasie is now deceased, but he was a criminal defense attorney.
So, Matune bounces a check to a noted criminal defense attorney (and a former commonwealth attorney) then heads to Illinois.
Which begs the question, might there be more to the curious case of Keith Matune?
Full document dump is here.
*** UPDATE *** Dan Proft’s new TV ad blasting Sandack and supporting Matune…
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Fun with numbers
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a Daily Herald story originally entitled “Suburbs would pay more under graduated income tax”…
A growing campaign for a graduated income tax in Illinois could push more of the total tax burden onto some areas of the suburbs, where median incomes far outpace state averages, critics say. […]
The suburbs’ higher incomes suggest a graduated tax, whatever it eventually looked like, could be a battleground issue locally. […]
The median annual household income in most suburban counties is higher than the Illinois average of $56,853, census data from 2008 to 2012 shows.
The median household income is $78,538 in DuPage County, $68,674 in Kane County, $83,835 in Kendall County, $79,085 in Lake County, $77,325 in McHenry County and $76,352 in Will County.
In Cook County including Chicago, the median household income is $54,648. However, it’s higher in most suburban Cook County towns, like a median of $71,306 in Streamwood and $81,105 in Hoffman Estates, for example.
* OK, the first thing you really need to understand about a graduated tax is that once you reach a higher tax threshold your increased tax rate does not apply to your full income. It applies only to the income above your new rate level. So, for instance, here are rates that Rep. Naomi Jakobsson has suggested, via the Illinois Policy Institute…
A person making $60K under Jakobsson’s plan would not be paying 6 percent on that entire 60 grand. That person would be paying six percent only on $2,000, and etc. down the line.
* The folks at A Better Illinois, which is advocating for a graduated Illinois tax and is backed by organized labor, among others, put together actual tax rates for all those suburban counties in the Daily Herald article and compared them to today’s current income tax rate. I’ve adjusted the headings a bit to make it more clear that these are Jakobsson’s proposed rates.
Again, this chart compares the current income tax rate of 5 percent to what the actual rate would be for median income in the suburbs if Rep. Jakobsson’s rates were enacted…
You can check their math by clicking here.
* So, under this particular proposal, people earning around the median income would be paying less than they are now, not more.
Then again, if the income tax is allowed to expire on schedule and the graduated tax was implemented down the road, there would most definitely be a tax hike for median earners, but not as high as they’re paying today.
* It should also be noted that the group doesn’t actually support Rep. Jakobsson’s tax rate plan, calling it “less progressive than what’s most likely to be attached to a Fair Tax.”
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Don’t Let Psychologists Prescribe
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
In any discussion about treatment of mental illness, the interests of the patients and their families must come first. In considering Senate Bill 2187 – sometimes called “RxP” – members of the General Assembly should keep that in mind.
SB 2187 would allow psychologists who have no medical training to prescribe powerful medications to patients. Current Illinois law allows only people who have medical training – doctors, nurse practitioners and physician assistants – to prescribe drugs.
Why does medical training matter? Physical illnesses and mental disorders are often intertwined. Additionally, psychiatric medication, such as drugs for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, can interact negatively with medication for chronic illnesses like diabetes and high blood pressure. Finally, psychiatric drugs are powerful and can create risky side effects. To understand these intricacies, psychiatrists go through four years of medical school and four additional years of residency. They learn to treat the whole patient – not just the brain.
The most recent version of the “RxP” bill would require about 30 semester hours, or 10 college courses, plus 10 weeks of supervision by a psychologist to prescribe medication. The course work could be completed online. Would you allow someone trained online to repair your brakes? Fly a plane? Work as a lifeguard? Treat the family dog?
Psychologists who want to prescribe can follow the route taken by Illinois nurse practitioners, physician assistants and doctors. They can obtain medical training – instead of insisting on a law that would put patients at risk. To become involved, join the Coalition for Patient Safety, http://coalitionforpatientsafety.com.
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Question of the day
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sen. Bill Brady’s lack of campaign cash has meant he’s mainly advertising on the Internet. Here’s a recent Facebook ad…
* And here’s one a buddy of mine saw while listening to Billy Idol…
* The Question: Where else could Bill Brady place ads? And what should they say?
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And the winners are…
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sen. Bill Cunningham’s choice for yesterday’s caption contest winner was this one by Jeff Trigg…
Does freezing Lake Michigan water stimulate the growth of hair? Ask Sen. Cunningham.
* My personal favorite was posted by Sangamon GOP…
As the rest of the Illinois GOP primary moved on, Dan Rutherford was left in an awkward position.
Sen. Cunningham has graciously donated $200 to our Special Olympics Chicago fundraising page, which put us over $5,000. I’ll be making my own contribution a bit later today.
* Meanwhile, from a press release…
State Senator Daniel Biss (D-Evanston) has introduced legislation expanding restrictions enacted last year to prevent police from using aerial drones to infringe on individuals’ privacy rights. His new proposal prohibits law enforcement from requiring private individuals or companies, except in certain emergencies, to hand over information gathered by drones they own. The Senate Criminal Law Committee approved the plan [yesterday], clearing the way for a vote of the full Senate.
“The need to impose restrictions on drone usage is important so that our legal protections keep pace with advances in technology,” said Biss, who also sponsored last year’s Freedom from Drone Surveillance Act. “As it became clear that individuals and corporations would also be using drones, we needed to put in place measures ensuring law enforcement could not bypass the warrant process by simply requisitioning footage collected by other people’s drones.”
* The photo included with the release…
Caption?
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Progress, but still serious problems
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Illinois Kids Count 2014 report: “Child Health Matters,” was released today. Key findings…
Health Care Coverage: Illinois has made significant progress reducing disparities in children’s health insurance coverage through Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and All Kids. The proportion of Illinois children without health insurance declined from 6 percent in 2008 to 3 percent in 2012. The state has also significantly narrowed racial-ethnic disparities in children’s health insurance coverage.
Family Income: There are wide health-related disparities between children in low-income families and those in families with higher incomes. Children in low-income families are less likely to receive comprehensive, coordinated care within a medical home. Low-income children are more likely to be overweight or obese and less likely to engage in vigorous physical activity. They are more likely to have oral health problems and less likely to receive preventive dental care.
Race-ethnicity: Racial-ethnic minority children in Illinois experience multiple disparities in health status, access to care, and environmental supports. Certain disparities are more pronounced among specific groups. The data show that African-American children are most likely to have poor birth outcomes such as low birthweight and most likely to be affected by asthma. Latino children are least likely to have access to continuous and coordinated care through a medical home. Latino parents are least likely to report excellent or good health for their children and other family members.
Special Health Care Needs: More than 450,000 Illinois children have special health care needs. About 40 percent of these children do not have adequate health insurance. Children with special health care needs are much more likely than other children to have frequent school absences. Less than half of youth with special health care needs receive services necessary to make appropriate transitions to adult health care, work, and independence.
Child Abuse and Neglect: Children who have experienced abuse or neglect have significant and complex health care needs. Medical, dental, and behavioral health conditions are very prevalent among children entering foster care. Since FY 2006, substantiated cases of child abuse and neglect in Illinois have increased by 13 percent. Counties with substantially larger increases include DuPage, Kane, Macon, Vermilion, and Will.
Read the full report by clicking here.
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Ditka cuts radio ad for Erika Harold
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Illinois Review…
Former Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka is cheering for Erika Harold in the 13th CD GOP primary. He’s recorded a radio ad supporting Harold that will start playing on radio stations in the district, saying the former Miss America is a natural leader, a conservative and “tough.”
* Rate it…
Sounds like he literally phoned that one in. They couldn’t get him to a studio or at least have him use a landline?
* Meanwhile…
Erika Harold of Urbana, one of three Republican candidates in the 13th District, will speak Saturday at CPAC 2014, the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C., as one of the top 10 conservatives under 40.
“We are pleased to announce that Erika Harold has been selected as one of our top 10 conservatives under 40,” said American Conservative Union Chairman Al Cardenas. “Our focus at CPAC has always been to showcase rising stars in the conservative movement. The depth and diversity of young leaders like Erika provides hope for America’s future as we face tough challenges ahead.”
Considering how badly she’s polling and how little money she’s raised, she’s probably on the list because she’s become a national media darling.
* But she did provide a thoughtful, if needlessly wordy, answer to a question about campaign finance reform…
The current framework of federal campaign finance laws favors special interest political action committees and political parties at the expense of citizens, as the amount of money citizens can contribute to their preferred candidates is capped at a lower level than the amount of money political action committees and political parties are permitted to contribute.
Moreover, this disparity in contribution limits serves to protect incumbents and disadvantage challengers, as political action committees simply are far more likely to contribute to incumbents in order to gain an audience with these individuals.
Accordingly, I would support legislation that eliminates these contribution limit differentials.
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Scott Walker redux versus a “RINO”?
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Give Bruce Rauner chutzpah points for this comment in last night’s debate…
“Why are you running in the Republican primary? I think you should be running in the Democratic primary,” Rauner needled [Dillard], noting that Dillard has taken hundreds of thousands of dollars in public-sector union money. Rauner has long maintained that if a governor takes public union money it is not only a conflict of interest but amounts to a “bribe.”
* Dillard’s response…
“Mr. Rauner doesn’t quite get it and this is one of many things that make him unelectable, that a third of these people that he likes to demonize are Republican Primary voters,”
* More from Dillard’s response…
“Well first of all I’m a lifelong Republican,” Dillard said. He also mentioned that he was the former chairman of the DuPage County Republican Party. He said he’s not going to agree with all policies but did defend his vote for school reform.
Bruce Rauner, the man who’s given hundreds of thousands of dollars to Democrats, called somebody else a RINO?
Sheesh.
* And here’s a bit more from that exchange…
Rauner attacked Dillard’s links to the public employee unions.
“Those are the exact same groups that have supported Pat Quinn, supported the Democratic Governors Association. and helped get us into the financial mess we’re in. Yet, you’re with them aligned. The teachers union has said you’re aligned with them on the policies. They are in favor of a tax hike,” said Rauner.
“I’m not gonna’ agree with the teachers on everything. I’m not for a progressive income tax. I didn’t vote for the 67% income tax,” responded Dillard.
* A little background…
“The union interest here is to continue the gravy train of high taxpayer burdens to fund public employee compensations,” [John Tillman, CEO of the Illinois Policy Institute] said.
“This is all part-and-parcel of the public sector unions’ strategy,” Tillman said. “They want to have tremendous influence over whoever wins the governor’s race in the fall.”
David Yepsen, a long time journalist who is now director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, said what the unions really want is to not be Wisconsin.
“I think the labor movement in Illinois is genuinely afraid Bruce Rauner will try to do what Scott Walker tried in Wisconsin and they are worried,” Yepsen told Illinois Watchdog.
* More on the Scott Walker fears…
Despite the concerns espoused in the unions’ anti-Rauner literature, though, one point has also become clear: Despite his lavish personal finances and vitriolic anti-organizing rhetoric, Rauner has not outlined any specific plan to hurt organized labor on his campaign website, in his limited press interviews or during debates.
Rauner has not, for example, proposed curbing collective bargaining rights like Walker did, or initiating a right-to-work law, like Daniels and Snyder. Though he has backed creation of “right-to-work” zones, where local governments could opt to adopt right-to-work laws, the candidate has stopped short of endorsing a statewide law outright. (Messages left with Rauner’s campaign for this story were not returned.)
And when it comes to pension cuts, the number one issue facing Illinois public employees of late, Rauner’s opinion likely won’t determine the outcome either way. Many of the same public employee unions financing Illinois Freedom PAC sued Quinn for signing into law last December a landmark bill that cuts Illinois’ public worker pensions. For his part, Rauner has said that law does not go far enough in cutting pensions and shoring up the state’s finances. It’s unclear, however, what he could do on pensions now that the Illinois Supreme Court will likely decide the matter.
Nonetheless, Bowen of IFT argues Rauner has staked out a clear “anti-middle class and anti-union position.” That will translate into anti-union policy, she says, no matter that Rauner currently seems to lack a cohesive strategy for doing so.
And statehouse observers feel that while Rauner may not have the impact of, for example, Scott Walker, who enjoys a Republican-majority legislature, he can still hurt unions.
“At first he can stop things from happening that public employee unions want to see happen,” says Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois-Springfield. “And then he can get involved in legislative races and work with the state legislature.” In future elections, Redfield explains, Rauner could create political momentum and raise finances to elect anti-union legislators—who would, in turn, introduce bills that would be harmful to the labor movement.
…Adding… The IFT has a clever little gif page over on Buzzfeed about Rauner.
* Meanwhile, Dillard also got in some punches last night, too…
“If Mr. Rauner is our nominee . . . we are nominating someone who buys influence in all parts of his life. Putting Bruce in charge of Springfield is sort of like putting a rat in charge of the cheese,” Dillard said.
* But Bill Brady piled on Dillard…
“To walk away from $175 to $180 billion [in potential savings], I frankly would say for your own political interest, Kirk Dillard. Last night I said Bruce Rauner was starting to act like Rod Blagojevich; Kirk Dillard is starting to act like Pat Quinn,” Brady said. “Pat Quinn sold out to the unions in the last election. We need a governor who’s willing to stand up for what’s right and not use votes like that or issues like that for political gain.”
* Both of these guys are still vying for second place…
Brady and Dillard got into a dust up when Brady questioned Dillard’s math over savings Dillard said occurred by voting for a Blagojevich-backed bill to refinance the state’s pension obligations.
“Bill, that’s why your business is bankrupt,” Dillard said.
“Wait a second, you want to get into a lawsuit?” Brady shot back. “My business isn’t bankrupt. It’s been through some tough times but it’s not in bankruptcy.”
* Brady did, however, get in some digs at Rauner along the way…
Brady also insisted that he was the only “reliable Republican” in the race, and criticized Rauner — who has spent millions on television ads in his first bid for public office — of trying to buy the race.
“The real question here is: Why should the voters of Illinois trust their vote with Bruce Rauner? Someone that they didn’t even know four months ago,” Brady said. “The three of us have a pretty open book. We’ve got a track record.”
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Quinn has real base problems
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We Ask America tested Gov. Pat Quinn’s job approval rating among likely Democratic primary voters…
Approve 57%
Disapprove 31%
Neutral 12%
* But then they asked this: “I will probably vote to re-elect Pat Quinn as governor no matter who is running against him in the fall.” The response…
Agree 50%
Disagree 34%
Undecided 16%
* From the pollster…
Whoa…a third of likely Democratic voters disagreed with a fairly mildly written re-elect question, and another 16% aren’t so sure.
* Look at the Downstate results for the reason why…
Agree 38%
Disagree 48%
Undecided 15%
* Back to the pollster…
Now, political families fight, but when push comes to shove they tend to stick together. Still, having a third of likely Democratic voters say they’re not sure they’ll vote for an incumbent governor is a swift kick in the patootie.
Will those miffed voters come back home in the fall? Probably. But depending on how deep voters’ walking dread goes, some may not vote at all and a handful may vote against Gov. Quinn because they’ve had it with his schtick. Still, it’s likely Quinn will face Bruce Rauner whose attacks on union bosses will make Quinn the lesser of two evils for some.
But Mr. Quinn may want to tend to a bit of family housekeeping sooner than later.
* Methodology…
Date: 3/4-5/2014 - Participants: 1,262 Likely Dem. Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.90%
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Oh. My. Goodness.
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* After claiming weeks ago that gay marriage had faded as an issue, the AP now has a story about how the issue is impacting some legislative races…
But on the GOP side, two of the toughest primary challenges involve state Reps. Ron Sandack of Downers Grove and Ed Sullivan of Mundelein, two of three House Republicans who broke ranks to vote in favor. The third, former House Republican leader Tom Cross, gave up his seat to run for treasurer.
Sandack is being challenged by Downers Grove High School teacher Keith Mathune and Sullivan by Mundelein bus driver Bob Bednar. Both are being helped by conservative family groups hoping the four-way GOP governor primary lures social conservatives to the polls.
Illinois Families First, a political action committee started by conservative activist Paul Caprio, is working with local religious groups to campaign against Sandack and Sullivan — including raising money and organizing robo-calls.
Another conservative activist, Dan Proft, has directed $13,500 from his political action committee, Liberty Principles, to pay for direct mailk criticizing Sandack’s gay marriage vote.
Matune has criticized Sandack for his vote and for accepting campaign contributions of both opponents and proponents of same-sex marriage.
“I am a pro-traditional marriage person,” Matune said. “I … believe that the residents of our district would not vote (as Sandack has).”
* The Daily Herald looked a bit closer at the Sandack-Matune race…
Campaign advertisements in the 81st state House race continue to question the honesty of candidate Keith Matune, who is challenging incumbent state Rep. Ron Sandack in a bitter race for the Republican party’s nomination in the March 18 primary.
The campaign has been contentious from the start as Sandack and Matune, both of Downers Grove, compete for votes from residents of the 81st District, which includes parts of Downers Grove, Naperville, Lisle, Darien, Westmont and Woodridge.
The race has turned into one of the top handful of GOP primaries in the state. And with incumbent state representatives Jeanne Ives of Wheaton and Sandra Pihos of Glen Ellyn facing tough primaries, too, DuPage County has become a Republican battleground in Illinois.
One recent campaign mailer sent in the 81st District questions Matune’s honesty concerning his reply to a Daily Herald questionnaire that asks all candidates if they have ever “been arrested for or convicted of a crime.”
Matune said he has never been arrested. But the mailer cites documents showing he was arrested in 1992 in Indiana and charged with public indecency, to which he pleaded guilty in 1993.
* And the Tribune focused on social media…
In one recent exchange, Matune tweeted his contention that Sandack is more sympathetic to the Democratic party than to Republicans.
“Sandack is against term limits for (House Speaker Michael) Madigan,” the tweet reads. “The contradiction suggests that he seeks higher office and doesn’t want to be limited by term limits!”
After a local attorney tweeted his support for Matune’s position, Sandack fired back the next day.
“You’re wrong,” the tweet reads. “I want term limits 4 all legislators. I’ve had a TL bill for 2 years now. Look it up. #factsmatter.”
* But that’s not even the half of it. I told subscribers about this mailer earlier today. It’s just too wild not to share with everybody. The mailer, sent by Dan Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC, attacks Rep. Ron Sandack. It includes one of the most over the top images I’ve ever seen. Click for a larger pic…
* Let’s zoom in…
Oy.
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Rate the new Dillard TV ad
Thursday, Mar 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Steve Shearer’s union-backed Fund for Progress and Jobs (he filed a D-! to drop the word “Republican” from the name this week) is running a new TV ad on behalf of Kirk Dillard. The 100 percent positive spot is airing in Chicago…
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