Site traffic is up well over 50 percent in the past two months. The election is bringing a lot of new people to the blog and with it some new tensions in the comments section.
For you newbies, please observe a few simple rules. And for those of you who have been around awhile, give yourself a refresher by reading what’s posted below.
* Bizarre conspiracy theories like one posted today - Copley fabricated a poll that was favorable to a Republican in order to help the Democrats - are seriously frowned upon. Perhaps there are some of you reading this now who don’t think this theory was all that bizarre. My advice to those people is to go somewhere else. In the past, you would have been publicly derided for your goofiness, but since the theorists are multiplying, I’m just gonna delete your posts without argument and put you into comment moderation (all your comments will then be held for approval by me), and perhaps banish you forever.
* “Does not” “Does too” “Does not” “Does too” flame wars are boring and stupid. I know that elections can get the blood boiling, but please refrain from wasting everyone’s time with such nonsense. Deletions are certain, moderation is probable, banishment is possible if you persist in being a jerk.
* Try to say something original, not regurgitate something you saw somebody say on another blog. Derision will surely follow. Eventual moderation is likely.
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* Rumors or even “facts” that you fervently believe to be true because you heard it from someone you consider to be a reliable source should be e-mailed to reporters or the feds, not posted here. Immediate deletion, permanent moderation, likely banishment.
* Let’s all try to be somewhat nice to each other, despite our disagreements. Elections end, politicians come and go, hot button issues ebb and flow, but we’ll always be here… or something like that.
Sorry. I was out of the office and couldn’t link to the story.
… 9 percent remain undecided.
The gap between Blagojevich and Topinka is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Other recent polls have indicated a much wider margin in favor of Blagojevich.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the poll of 625 likely voters Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 30-31.
The poll also shows that large numbers of votes still have unfavorable opinions of both Topinka and Blagojevich, but recent stories about federal investigations into corruption in state government are taking a toll on Blagojevich’s support.
These are the newest numbers we have. The Tribune poll (44-29-13) was taken Oct. 27-29. The Daily Herald poll (48-32-12) was taken Oct. 16-22.
We can pretty much bet that Blagojevich is stalled in the mid-40s, where he’s been for months. The real question has been for weeks whether voters would actually vote for a third party candidate or whether they were just temporarily parked there instead of sitting in the undecided column.
Also, there are still quite a few undecideds in this poll. Hopefully, Copley will tell us who those people are - since that would seem to be the most important part of this story.
[Let’s close comments on this. Go here for more discussion on Copley’s poll.]
A couple of stories about the governor’s wife doing business with a state contractor. This one was just posted:
Republican candidate for governor Judy Baar Topinka says she wants to restrict money that immediate family members of the governor and other constitutional officers can earn.
Topinka said at a press conference today in Chicago that she would propose prohibiting outside income to family members from lobbyists and state contractors.
Her proposal comes amid news reports that Governor Rod Blagojevich’s wife Patti, a real estate broker, has business dealings with people who have a financial stake in the administration’s actions.
And this one ran in the morning, but I forgot to post it.
Republican Judy Baar Topinka on Tuesday rejected Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s complaint that coverage of his wife’s business was sexist, suggesting his comment was meant to divert attention from serious ethics questions.
“Being female, I know what is sexism. It’s not sexism at all. It’s arrogance of power, not wishing to answer a question,” Topinka said in a telephone interview. “It really is a dumb comment — and probably diversionary on top of it.” […]
Blagojevich refused Tuesday to discuss his previous comments about a “Neanderthal and sexist” news story on his wife’s real estate dealings with a couple who have a financial stake in his administration’s decisions. […]
At a news conference to announce his endorsement by a gun-control group, Blagojevich said he would let others decide whether the coverage was unfair and he praised his wife as both a mother and a business owner.
A Chicago newspaper reported last week that Patricia Blagojevich made $113,700 — her only commissions this year — from a couple with a stake in the Blagojevich administration’s actions. Anita Mahajan has a no-bid state contract that began before Blagojevich took office. Amrish Mahajan runs a bank with requests pending before state regulators.
The AP points out a major flaw in the governor’s self defense.
When asked whether [Tony Rezko and Stu Levine’s] conduct raises questions about his judgment, Blagojevich answered it shows the need for strong systems to root out corruption.
Blagojevich says a lot of the things Levine pleaded guilty to occurred before his administration had an inspector general. He says he believes the system is much better today.
However, Blagojevich first appointed an inspector general for his office in April 2003. Based on his guilty plea, Levine’s crimes continued until at least May 2004.
There is no indication Blagojevich’s inspector was involved in discovering the offenses that are part of a federal corruption probe.
This story shows once again that every word he says has to be checked and double-checked. He will say anything. That attribute makes him an incredibly good campaigner, as long as his opponent doesn’t have the cash to respond, but it doesn’t exactly make him a fount of reliable information.
As I wrote in this morning’s Capitol Fax, the “say anything” campaign is epitomized in this radio ad [wav file], which accuses her of all sorts of nasty things, including how she “runs down those who honor our veterans” and claiming she wants to raise taxes.
…Gov. Rod Blagojevich said his barrage of attack TV ads against Republican Judy Baar Topinka is only an effort to show voters how the two candidates differ on the issues. But Blagojevich’s campaign on Tuesday also used claims made in a Downstate gun-rights newsletter to claim Topinka supports allowing citizens to carry concealed firearms.
In a recent issue of the Gun News, a group member reported that Topinka had said in a conversation that she would sign a concealed-carry bill “as soon as the legislature could get it to her desk.”
Campaigning in the southwest suburbs, Topinka said she was opposed to so-called concealed-carry laws and was shocked by the governor’s allegation. But when asked if she would veto a concealed-carry bill if it passed the legislature, she said she “probably would, yes.”
Later, she said, she was adamantly opposed to concealed-carry laws
“I don’t support concealed-carry. Period,” she said.
It’s difficult to defend yourself against a well-funded opponent who will literally say anything to win.
Meanwhile, Christine Radogno’s campaign demanded that Alexi Giannoulias pull a TV ad off the air. From a press release:
State Sen. Christine Radogno, Republican nominee for Illinois treasurer, today called television ads run by her Democratic opponent Alexi Giannoulias false distortions designed to deflect attention from his refusal to explain loans his bank made to crime figures and asked that he provide proof of his sources or remove his ad from the airwaves.
In a negative ad released yesterday by the Giannoulias campaign, it claims Radogno voted to raise telecom and utility rates by 22 percent and cites a Chicago Sun Times story from Oct. 23. A search on the Sun-Times website found no stories with the words Radogno and utility rates. Nowhere in the only news story on October 23rd that discusses utilities does Radogno’s name appear nor does the story mention a vote by the General Assembly, said Radogno.
“This is simply a desperate distortion by Alexi Giannoulias,†said Radogno. “He is again attempting to deflect attention from the fact that he has refused to answer questions about his involvement in loans he and his family’s bank made to organized crime figures. It’s no coincidence that he chose to run this negative ad at the same time new polls show this race is a dead heat.â€
Maybe so, but a whole lot of Democratic legislators are being whacked but good by their Republican opponents this fall for taking campaign contributions from utilities and for voting for the 1997 electric dereg bill - the basis for the slam against Radogno. I didn’t see Radogno standing up for them. While it may be an unfair hit, it’s been a common refrain this year.
The focus in the media for the next week will be largely on voter turnout. But how accurate will the reporting be? This excellent piece has been making the rounds of the blogs all week, but I keep forgetting to post it. The 5 myths of voter turnout, by Michael McDonald, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.
1) Thanks to increasing voter apathy, turnout keeps dwindling.
This is the mother of all turnout myths. There may be plenty of apathetic voters, but the idea that ever fewer Americans are showing up at the polls should be put to rest. What’s really happening is that the number of people not eligible to vote is rising — making it seem as though turnout is dropping. […]
3) Negative ads turn off voters and reduce turnout.
Don’t be so sure. The case on this one is still open. Negative TV advertising increased in the mid-1980s, but turnout hasn’t gone down correspondingly. The negative Swift boat campaign against Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., apparently did little to depress turnout in the 2004 presidential race.
Some academic studies have found that negative advertising increases turnout. And that’s not so surprising: A particularly nasty ad grabs people’s attention and gets them talking. People participate when they’re interested.
The danger of going negative is that voters may perceive the attacks as unfair. So campaigns tend to stick to “contrast ads,” in which candidates contrast their records with those of their opponents. When people see stark differences between candidates, they’re more likely to vote.
Go read the whole thing, especially if you’re an editorial writer, reporter, columnist or pundit.
Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has the latest on early voting.
Though most votes will be cast next Tuesday, almost 40,000 city and suburban voters have taken advantage of early voting, which ends Thursday. More than 5,000 voters filled out ballots Tuesday, and election officials expect even more to vote today and Thursday at election offices, village halls and libraries.
Remember, these Richard Day poll numbers are pretty old, but I doubt it will make much difference in the blow-out down-ballot races. However, Day’s ancient numbers may very well be a lot different now in the still somewhat volatile treasurer’s race.
In the race for secretary of state, incumbent Democrat Jesse white has a commanding lead. 65 percent of likely voters polled support White. He’s well ahead of Republican Dan Rutherford who has 24 percent. Green party candidate Karen Peterson picked up 6 percent. 5 percent of voters surveyed are still undecided. […]
Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is leading, but there are still a lot of voters that have to make up their minds. Giannoulias leads Christine Radogno by 9 points, 43-to-34. Green party candidate Dan Rodriguez Schlorff got 6 percent. 18 percent remain undecided.
…Democrat Lisa Madigan gets 68 percent of the vote, followed by Republican Stewart Umholtz with 22 percent. Green party candidate David Black Is at 3 percent and 7 percent still undecided. […]
Incumbent Democrat Daniel Hynes received 59 percent, followed by Carole Pankau with 21 percent. Green party candidate Alicia Snyder was at 6 percent. Undecided– 14 percent.
* And pollster Richard Day sums it up for the Daily Herald.
“It looks like it could be a sweep,†said Richard Day, whose Evanston-based firm conducted the poll. “There’s no one to pull up the bottom of the ticket (for Republicans).â€
That’s a reference to Judy Baar Topinka, who leads the GOP ticket this fall but whom the poll showed has had a tough time generating enthusiasm for her campaign against scandal-battered Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
The statewide survey of 603 likely voters was taken Oct. 16-22 and has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. […]
With the poll showing wide Democratic margins, voters could be getting ready Nov. 7 to give one party control of all statewide offices, reminiscent of 1994, when then-Gov. Jim Edgar led a Republican sweep. In 2002, voters gave Democrats control of the General Assembly, governor’s mansion, Illinois Supreme Court and all statewide offices, except for treasurer.
* Meanwhile, the Daily Herald tries to explain why its Cook County Board President poll was so different from the Tribune’s poll.
* And if you think Richard Day and the media outlets should be ashamed of himself for polling only 300 Cook County residents over several days and then sitting on the results for 8 days, check this out:
Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley appears to be politically weathering last summer’s high-profile city hall hiring fraud convictions as he looks toward re-election, a Daily Herald/ABC 7 Chicago poll shows.
Daley led his most prominent potential challenger, Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr., by a better than 2-to-1 margin, 65 percent to 24 percent, according to the early survey. […]
The survey of 154 likely voters was taken Oct. 16 to 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 8 percentage points.
Unreal.
By the way, Day used his rating method to guage voter interest in several issues.
The bitter political atmosphere is reflected in poll results that had voters say their top reason for supporting both Blagojevich and Topinka in the governor’s race, as well as Republican David McSweeney against Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean in the 8th District contest, is they disliked the opponents. Additionally, Democratic Cook County Board president hopeful Todd Stroger was viewed negatively by 53 percent of those surveyed.
Voters rated “promoting ethics and honesty in government†as their top concern in the statewide survey, giving it an 8.9 on the 1-10 scale. Job creation placed second at 8.5, crime concerns came in third at 8.4, increasing school funding was fourth at 8.2, and state budget problems fifth at 8.1.
Illegal immigration scored only a 6.8 — not as strong as one might expect, given the Republican focus on the issue this year, Day said.
In the 6th Congressional District race, immigration was cited by 9 percent of those polled as their primary reason for supporting Republican Peter Roskam, who has attacked Democrat Tammy Duckworth for being too soft on the issue. And in the 8th District race, only 2 percent listed immigration as their biggest reason for backing McSweeney over Bean.
Just because a political party focuses on an issue like immigration doesn’t mean voters will necessarily care all that much.
* The national Dems upgraded Seals a few days back, but the Sun-Times has more detail about what they’re up to.
Democrat Dan Seals is finally getting the attention of the national Democrats in his drive to defeat Rep. Mark Kirk in a 10th District congressional race that is getting closer than expected.
The Democratic House political operation, after declining to initially spend any money on Seals in favor of better prospects, is paying for a series of direct-mail pieces in the closing week of the campaign after polls indicated Seals may be within striking distance of Kirk.
One small indication of interest in the Kirk-Seals contest: early voting in the village of Northbrook, which has the highest early turnout of any suburban municipality in Cook County, according to Cook County Clerk David Orr.
For a guy who clamored for more debates against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, Democrat Dan Seals sure treats his rare chances to debate Kirk funnily.
At the last minute, Seals pulled out of today’s debate in Waukegan. That’s the kind of behavior usually reserved for incumbents. True, it was a private event, but the public would have learned about the contrasting positions of Kirk and Seals through the newspaper reporting on the event. Seals did, however, have the time to stage a downtown news conference to try to keep alive an unflattering story about a Kirk staffer that’s now a week old.
‘The Tribune has the money roundup in the two big congressional races.
The Republican and Democratic national congressional committees have already poured more than $7 million into TV ads, mailings and phone calls in Illinois’ two hotly contested suburban contests, Federal Election Commission reports show, and millions more are expected to be spent in the hours before next week’s balloting. […]
In the 6th District contest, where veteran Republican Rep. Henry Hyde is retiring, the GOP committee has spent about $2.3 million while the Democratic committee has spent $1.7 million. In the 8th District, Democrats have spent $723,000 to help Bean defend the seat she won two years ago against longtime Republican Rep. Phil Crane.
Two years ago, the Republican committee spent $1.2 million on Crane’s behalf while the Democratic committee spent $880,000 to help Bean.
Bean received substantially less help from her party than her GOP counterpart because she is an incumbent. But the Democratic committee is expected to spend about $1 million more in the 8th District by Election Day as well as an additional $1 million in the 6th District, party sources said.
And the Daily Herald has a piece on worries about the third party candidate in Bean’s district.
Apparently worried that he could end up playing the spoiler in next Tuesday’s election, Democrats are telling voters in the suburban 8th Congressional District not to “throw away†their vote on the race’s third-party candidate.
A new campaign ad mailed on behalf of Congresswoman Melissa Bean, a Barrington Democrat, warns that casting an anti-war protest vote for peace activist Bill Scheurer could hurt Bean and derail Democrats’ attempt to win control of Congress.
“George W. Bush wants you to waste your vote,†reads the ad, which was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and sent to Democrats.
It also claims Scheurer was “propped up†by Bean’s Republican challenger, Barrington Hills investment banker David McSweeney.
* Southtown: Todd Stroger’s campaign is counting on a last-minute push from Chicago’s rock star of politics, Barack Obama, to put Stroger over the top in what still appears to be a tight race for Cook County Board president.
* Sneed: Hmmm: Sneed hears rumbles a mink coat reportedly belonging to Michelle Obama, wife of Sen. Barack Obama, may have gone missing following the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s Saturday birthday bash at the South Shore Cultural Center.
* Lieutenant governor candidates spar over hiring investigation [Audio clips at site]
* Officials announce reforms at Cook County juvenile center
* Sun-Times: Politics is a dirty tricks business but when it comes to Halloween, the two gubernatorial candidates offered up only treats Tuesday night.
* Sun-Times: Mayor Daley has purchased $80,000 in radio time over the next six days to urge Chicago voters — with the help of his running mate, state Sen. Miguel del Valle (D-Chicago), — to support advisory referendums on Tuesday’s ballot.
The Rockford Register-Star endorses Rich Whitney, thereby guaranteeing the Green Party candidate lots of press coverage and hurting Topinka’s chances of winning back those voters who may have temporarily parked their support with a protest candidate.
Only in the surreal realm of Illinois politics could red and blue combine to produce green.
The blue party candidate, Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, has danced as fast as he can on the campaign trail in a vain attempt to stay ahead of allegations of personal corruption and fiscal irresponsibility.
The red party’s pick, Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, has conducted a negative and unfocused campaign that doesn’t inspire confidence she could lead the state. Her main qualification is having a lower indictment potential than the incumbent.
There is a choice, and this Editorial Board is making it by endorsing Rich Whitney, the Green Party candidate, for Illinois governor.
We believe Whitney, a 51-year-old attorney from Carbondale, could clean up state government while leading Illinois toward school finance reform, job growth, environmental responsibility and social justice. […]
Some readers will perceive this endorsement as quixotic. We view it as pragmatic rather than foolishly idealistic. This endorsement is our battle cry: Illinois voters deserve better options.
Whitney is a serious candidate who could do the job. He might not win, but we hope he gets enough votes so Illinoisans have more of a choice when they go to the polls in the future.
This attitude that Topinka’s “main qualification is having a lower indictment potential than the incumbent” is precisely the sort of thinking that Zorn warned against in this morning’s column. The paper has bought into the governor’s TV ad blitz, as Zorn did until, he claims, last week, when…
But let me ask you, as I finally stopped to ask myself late last week: What, exactly, is so evil about Judy Baar Topinka? What is so objectionable about the idea of her as governor?
OK, she’s got a zany streak and speaks more in quips than in quotes. She’s been a little too cozy with the oily bipartisan crowd of insiders who have helped disgrace our state.
But she’s refreshingly blunt, socially moderate and honest enough not to pander to voters with promises she can’t keep without saddling future generations with staggering debts. […]
She was not “George Ryan’s treasurer,” as Blagojevich’s snide commercials said, any more than she was Jim Edgar’s treasurer or Blagojevich’s treasurer. She was your treasurer. You voted for her. Because she did a good job and avoided the sort of scandal that’s crept awfully close to Blagojevich.
I’m not here to tell you Topinka has had a blameless career, would be a great governor or even that I’m planning to vote for her (full disclosure, I nearly always vote Democratic). I’m here to tell you Judy Baar Topinka is not a phony, a nitwit or a crook.
Eric Zorn apparently believes that he’s bought into an ad campaign, not a reality. The headline is “Don’t be duped by Blagojevich’s snide TV ads.” And here’s how it ends:
If you vote for Blagojevich because you admire what he’s done in office and believe his promises, fine. But if you vote against Topinka because you now believe that there’s no difference in the integrity, sincerity or political courage of these two candidates, then you’re just the sucker Blagojevich was hoping you’d be. He started this as Mr. Squandered Opportunity, an earnest twit best known for expensive grandstanding and breaking his promise to reform the system in Illinois.
The millions he spent flinging offal at Topinka and sowing general revulsion has paid off, as it was nearly bound to in a Democratic state. He’s still unpopular–just 40 percent of the public views him favorably, according to our recent poll–but he’s succeeded in making her even more unpopular and racking up a 15-point lead in our poll.
Barack Obama writes of the audacity of hope. Rod Blagojevich practices the audacity of cynicism. I almost fell for it. Will you?
* Meanwhile, Topinka is finally forced to dump Kj.
Republican Judy Baar Topinka spoke out Monday against a top GOP official linked to a plot to squeeze kickbacks out of companies doing business with the state […]
Topinka stopped short of calling for Bob Kjellander, treasurer of the national Republican Party, to resign. But she said he should step down if he was involved in any misconduct.
“If Bob Kjellander has done … something wrong here, he needs to resign from his party post,” Topinka said before kicking off a statewide coffee-shop tour to talk to voters about the state’s financial situation.
* Breast cancer program expands - State closes loophole so more uninsured women can get care
* Executive order requires recycling electronics gear
* Roeper: That’s not voter apathy: They just don’t like stench of negative ads
* AP: Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s troubled fundraiser, Antoin “Tony” Rezko, won’t be able to post his luxurious suburban mansion as bond after all as he scrambles to stay out of jail.
* Gov. Rod Blagojevich appeared at the school Monday to confirm that $6.8 million in state funding will be released for the National Great Rivers Research and Education Center, a project that features a partnership among LCCC and other state and federal agencies and educational bodies.
* Ailing John Stroger unable to cast vote - He’ll miss first election of his adult life
* Tribune editorial: Democratic officials who endorse Todd Stroger, or who appear at events with him, or who record telephone robo-messages on his behalf, ought to closely examine Stroger’s advertising. Because when they vouch for Stroger as a paragon of reform, his credibility rubs off on them.
* High college costs sacrificing students’ dreams, study finds
The big question now is how many votes Rich Whitney gets.
Gov. Rod Blagojevich maintained a sizable advantage over Republican Judy Baar Topinka even as new corruption allegations surfaced involving his close supporters, a new Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll shows.
A week before the election, the survey of 600 likely voters shows Blagojevich backed by 44 percent, Topinka supported by 29 percent and Green Party candidate Richard Whitney with 13 percent. Another 13 percent were undecided in the survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, which has an error margin of 4 percentage points. […]
The poll also found that in the race to replace Topinka in the treasurer’s office, Chicago banker Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat, has the support of 40 percent of voters compared to 23 percent for Republican state Sen. Christine Radogno of Lemont. Green Party candidate Dan Rodriguez Schlorff got 5 percent.
But nearly 30 percent of voters were undecided in the treasurer contest and large numbers had never heard of either major party candidate, despite a series of stories about questionable loans given by the Giannoulias family’s Broadway Bank, the survey showed.
Two different media companies, two different Cook County Board president polls, two widely different results. The reason? Most likely it’s because the Tribune poll is recent and has a reasonable sample size, while the Daily Herald/ABC7 poll is ancient and has a tiny sample size.
First, the Tribune poll of 484 likely voters conducted Thursday through Sunday:
Stroger leads Peraica 48 percent to 33 percent with 17 percent of voters undecided—a significant gain for the Democrat since a similar poll about three weeks ago showed the contest a virtual tie.
While Stroger has surged, Peraica’s support has slipped among voter groups who are key to his chances, according to the poll of 484 likely voters conducted Thursday through Sunday. The poll has an error margin of 5 percentage points.
The new poll shows Todd Stroger increasing his advantage among city voters beyond what had already been a significant margin. The survey found 62 percent of city voters back Stroger, compared to 50 percent almost two weeks ago. At the same time, Peraica’s support in the city was essentially unchanged at 24 percent. […]
The survey found 63 percent of Democrats now say they support Stroger, up from 59 percent in the previous poll. Stroger’s support among African-American voters increased by 4 percentage points, to 79 percent.
Peraica’s edge among suburban Cook County voters has slipped to 44 percent from 48 percent, while Stroger’s suburban support rose to 32 percent from 28 percent.
Meanwhile, the latest Daily Herald/ABC poll is of just 300 voters taken Oct. 16 to 22, meaning the margin of error is plus-or-minus 6 percentage points and some results are more than two weeks old. So, the poll doesn’t take into account many of the ads that have been aired by Stroger or much of the field work by the Democratic machine.
Even though many don’t know him, Republican board member Tony Peraica led Democratic pinch hitter Todd Stroger by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent, the Daily Herald/ABC7 Chicago poll found.
To know Stroger apparently is to not love him, poll results show. Stroger, a Chicago alderman chosen to replace his father on the ballot after the primary, was known to 87 percent of those surveyed, but supported by less than half of them. On the other hand, Peraica was unknown to 42 percent, but still favored by more than half of those polled.
“If people know Stroger and not Peraica, they’ll vote for Peraica,” said Richard Day, whose Evanston-based firm conducted the poll. “It’s remarkable.” […]
Stroger was viewed unfavorably by more than half of those polled, 53 percent, and favorably by 24 percent - a 2-to-1 negative margin. Peraica was thought of unfavorably by 24 percent and favorably by 39 percent, with 42 percent unfamiliar with him.
Constituent Dynamics has released two new polls for the 6th and 8th Congressional Districts.
* Three weeks ago, the polling firm had Peter Roskam slightly ahead of Tammy Duckworth, 47-46. Now, they’ve got Duckworth edging Roskam 48-47. Crosstabs here. Click below for a larger image.
* Two weeks ago, they had Congresswoman Melissa Bean neck and neck with Dave McSweeney, 47-44. Now they’ve got Bean ahead by a more comfortable 50-45.
However - and this is a big however - for the second time in a row the organization has failed to poll the third candidate in the race, rendering this poll useless — The Archpundit has convinced me that the third party candidate is probably picked up in the “other” category. I’d still like to see the candidate in, but the poll is not totally useless. Crosstabs.
If they can’t even figure out that there are three candidates in this race, you gotta wonder whether they can be believed on anything else.
Even more so than with the Daily Herald’s congressional polling, all of these gubernatorial numbers are postively ancient, since the poll was conducted Oct. 16-22, according to the paper. In other words, they sat on these results for eight days and some of the numbers are over two weeks old.
The governor led Topinka by 16 percentage points, 48 percent to 32 percent, in the poll. And in a sign voters view this as the proverbial “None-of-the-Above” election, little-known Green Party candidate Rich Whitney polled 12 percent support, likely an unprecedented showing for a third-party candidate in Illinois. […]
In this campaign, though, women voters backed Blagojevich by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. And the governor led Topinka by 13 percentage points, 45-32 percent, in suburban Cook, and by 12 percentage points, 47-35 percent, in the DuPage, Lake, Kane, McHenry and Will collar counties.
That campaign is working, the poll shows. Asked to rate Topinka on a 1-10 scale, those surveyed rated her a 4.0 - lower than any statewide candidate this fall and even lower than President Bush, who rated a 4.2. Topinka was rated a 5.6 just two years earlier.
Blagojevich’s own rating stood at 4.6, dropping a full point from two years ago, a likely indication the seemingly endless stream of stories about corruption allegations in his administration is taking a toll.
*** UPDATE *** The Tribune/WGN poll isn’t on the Web yet, but I’m told the results are: 44-29-13
For the second time in a row, Constituent Dynamics has released a poll on the 10th CD that doesn’t jibe with any other numbers.
Two weeks ago, they had Congressman Mark Kirk ahead of Dan Seals 46-44. Nobody believed it. They also had Melissa Bean in a tough race and nobody believed that, either, until the Daily Herald poll suggested she was in trouble.
This time, they’ve got Dan Seals ahead of Congressman Mark Kirk 48-46. Gitcher crosstabs here. Click below for a larger image.
*** UPDATE *** I posted this in comments, but thought it should be elevated to the main page. Here is the methodology this outfit uses:
Majority Watch, a project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, comprises telephone surveys conducted using interactive voice recognition (IVR) technology.
In each of 30 contested congressional districts, a representative sample of 5,000 likely voters based on previous vote history was selected from state voter registration files. 1,200-1,300 interviews were completed in each district […]
Completed interviews were compared to the voter registration file to validate results. Interview were discarded when the surveyed demographic responses did not match the voter file information of the sampled likely voter. In this manner, approximately 1,000 interviews were validated for each district.
Final results were weighted to represent the likely electorate by demographic factors such as age, sex, race and CD geographical subarea. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than 3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all voters in a CD were polled.
Most politicians like to play it safe. Not Tim Nieukirk.
He’ll blindside firefighters rushing to save cats caught in a tree. He won’t climb into bed with special interests, but he will with your sister. And he goes after a breed of criminal that most politicians prefer to ignore - the Hamburglar.
Nieukirk is the star of a series of over-the-top campaign ads promoting his write-in campaign for Illinois governor.
The campaign consists entirely of homemade ads on YouTube.com and a MySpace.com page, but Nieukirk says he’s filed the necessary paperwork in every county so that any votes he collects will be officially counted.
See all of Nieukirk’s “campaign ads” here. His MySpace page is here. And you can buy Get Nieuked gear here.
Now that the AP has done a piece, maybe the Chicago TV people will finally show an interest. After all, Nieukirk’s campaign is solely on video. What could possibly be better for a light and fluffy TV feature?
Steve Rhodes has a spot-on, in-depth take on the relationship between Stu Levine and Rod Blagojevich. It cuts right through the phony spin coming out of the governor’s campaign and is a must-read for any reporter covering this controversy.
(T)he more telling aspect of Levine’s deal in my mind was the implication of Blagojevich’s pal, Chris Kelly, in wrongdoing. Kelly and the recently-indicted Tony Rezko have been the governor’s two closest advisors. If the governor was merely betrayed by his two closest advisors, that’s still a pretty damning indictment (no pun intended) of his judgement in who he has given the keys to state government to. And, just to give the governor the benefit of the doubt for sake of argument, if he never paid attention to press reports swirling about Rezko and Kelly and never called them in and read them the riot act, he failed to do his job. If he never bothered to ask about what his father-in-law, Ald. Dick Mell once alleged - that state board and commission seats were being sold for $50,000 campaign contributions - he was derelict. (Mell recanted that allegation in the face of a libel suit, but perhaps only to clear a path for fededral investigators, much as county and state officials have done.) In addition, Joe Cari has told federal investigators that he was offered a state board or commission seat in exchange for a campaign contribution, even though Blagojevich has tried pass off Cari’s allegations as “triple hearsay” - which they are not.
Giving the governor the benefit of the doubt, in other words, doesn’t help his case because of his utter failure of vigilance after riding into office as a reformer.
Of course, I’m not so charitable as to give the governor the benefit of the doubt.
He goes on to remind people that there were big questions about Levine when Blagojevich reappointed him to the hospital board and the Teachers Retirement System board. For instance, after Levine resigned from the Gaming Board in 2001, press reports revealed that he hadn’t disclosed investments in Argosy Gaming Co., an Illinois casino owner that he had regulated. And then there’s this…
“Although Levine was known inside Illinois as a Republican rainmaker, his political contributions at the national level skewed toward Democratic officeholders. The burgeoning relationships between Levine, Cari, [former New York comptroller and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Carl] McCall, and the Blagojevich administration grew cozier in late 2003, when Levine paid more than $4,000 to fly the governor and some of his campaign operatives to fund-raising visits to Austin, Texas, and New York City, according to campaign reports and other sources. McCall hosted one fundraising event held in an exclusive New York club, and [Cari’s] HealthPoint paid for $3,500 in meals at another funder in the city the next day.”
Blagojevich knew full well who Levine was. If he didn’t question what Levine was up to, that alone makes him unfit for office
Go read the whole thing.
*** UPDATE *** The governor defends his wife’s business dealings with a state contractor.
Gov. Rod Blagojevich on Monday said anyone who suggests his wife got private real estate deals with a state contractor because he is governor is acting like a “Neanderthal” and being “sexist.”
Appearing Downstate to announce $6.8 million in state grants to build a river research station in Alton, Blagojevich was asked about a recent Tribune report that the his wife, Patricia, got more than $113,000 in real estate commissions through a woman who holds a longstanding no-bid state contract. The woman’s husband, a banker, also has business pending before state regulators.
“She has every right to pursue her business and, you know, there’s a sexist quality to that story-somehow moms who have their own businesses, who are women, can’t do things that way-that’s implicated in that story. So there’s a sexist component to that story,” Blagojevich said.
The governor then got into a black SUV and shut the door, before climbing back out to continue his point.
“Working women are very much a part of the real life experience today for families across our state. And to suggest she doesn’t have the right to have her own business and pursue her own business is Neanderthal and sexist,” the governor said before getting back in his vehicle and being driven away.
I put this here because Rhodes wrote about this topic as well.
“It’s unfair and completely ridiculous to suggest she should keep track of every client she does business with to see if they have contracts with the state,” said Blagojevich spokeswoman Abby Ottenhoff, of Patti Blagojevich’s real estate business.
Why?
Lawyers vet their cases for conflicts of interest within their firms. Reporters try to be similarly vigilant. Plus, Patti Blagojevich only has a few clients a year. What’s ridiculous is that a real estate agent whose husband is the governor wouldn’t keep track of whether her clients had contracts with the state. Unless she didn’t want to know - or already did.
[Updated from last night and bumped up. Also, FYI, the Daily Herald will be releasing a new poll on the governor’s race at about six o’clock tonight. A new poll for the county board president’s race will be released at 10 pm. Check back for links if you can.]
One brief bit of caution: Some of these Daily Herald/ABC7 poll numbers are eleven days old because the 6th District poll was conducted Oct. 19-24 and the 8th District survey was taken Oct 18-24. The margin of error for both polls is 4 percentage points.
The freshest numbers, according to pollster.com, come from Democratic pollster Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal. The survey of 400 likely voters taken Oct. 23-24 had Duckworth ahead 44-43. But here’s the narrative from the Daily Herald on its poll:
In the 6th Congressional District race to succeed retiring Rep. Henry Hyde of Wood Dale, Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam led Democratic Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth 46 to 42 percent […]
Of Roskam’s 46 percent, 27 percent said they were strong supporters, with 19 percent less strong in their support. Duckworth had 28 percent say they were strong backers, with 14 percent less strong. […]
Only 36 percent of those surveyed thought the country was headed down the right path, with 54 percent saying it’s going in the wrong direction and 10 percent not sure. Bush carried the district in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote.
Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran who opposes the war, is getting support from 66 percent of those who feel the country is on the wrong track. Roskam, running as the candidate of the party in control of the federal government, is backed by 22 percent of the wrong-direction voters.
The Daily Herald has the situation far worse for Bean, with the incumbent polling 8 points under 50 percent and the third party candidate eating up votes:
To the north, 8th District Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean of Barrington held a 42 percent to 39 percent lead over Republican investment banker David McSweeney of Barrington Hills [third party candidate Bill Scheurer is at 8 percent] […]
Although Bean hasn’t gone out of her way to bash Bush, she gets support from 62 percent of those polled who think the country is on the wrong track. Scheurer picks up 12 percent of those voters. […]
McSweeney captured only 68 percent support among those identifying themselves as strong Republicans and just 55 percent among those leaning Republican. That presents perhaps McSweeney’s biggest challenge. “If McSweeney can persuade and energize his natural base of Republican support, he will win the race,” Day said.
McSweeney’s support is based more along party lines: 22 percent saying they back him because they dislike Bean, with another 21 percent saying they back him because he’s a Republican. About 17 percent cited McSweeney’s issues, with an additional 9 percent specifying his opposition to abortion rights as the reason they’ll vote for him.
If this poll is right, and if those Republicans come home for McSweeney, this might be a major upset in the making.
*** UPDATE *** Duckworth’s last TV ad of the season is below.
This question was suggested by state Rep. Larry McKeon:
Most candidates have a campaign website. What do you find good and what do you find bad about the websites you have visited? Why? If you were going to design one what should a really good website contain?
There was an interesting little question in the Post-Dispatch poll released over the weekend about electric rates. Even when told that the utilities are claiming that extending the current electric rate freeze could drive them into bankruptcy, a solid majority of 56 percent still wanted the freeze to go ahead.
QUESTION:As you may know, electric rates are scheduled to sharply increase in Illinois next year as the result of deregulation of the market. Some say the state should freeze those rates because there isn’t adequate competition in the market yet. The electric industry says continuing the freeze could drive it into bankruptcy. In your opinion, should the state:
“The power companies are going to need a hell of a PR campaign'’ to win over the public to the rate hikes, predicted pollster Del Ali. “It’s not enough to threaten to go bankrupt, because people don’t care.'’
That was apparent in comments by poll respondents such as Cheri Akers of Hamilton.
“I would be more than happy to see it freeze,'’ she said. “I don’t think they would go bankrupt. I think the companies are bluffing.'’
My syndicated newspaper column is about… what else?… the Levine plea.
Corrupt political insider Stu Levine was hit with so many federal indictments earlier this year that he literally was facing a life sentence behind bars.
Last week, he copped a plea that will let him walk free after five years and seven months in what probably will be a minimum security prison — in exchange for his cooperation.
We can discern one of two things from this: 1) Much of the federal case was weak and letting Levine off relatively easy was a face-saving move by U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald; or 2) Levine has agreed to help the feds reel in some very big fish and used that prospect to negotiate a much better deal.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I find myself leaning toward “Door Number 2.”
There was no hint of an apology, nor any expression of embarrassment nor regret for even unwittingly keeping Levine in a position of trust. There was no acceptance of responsibility whatsoever, not even the indirect sort. He didn’t even do that thing Mayor Daley does where he acts like he’s angry about somebody letting him down.
It is hard to feel sorry for Levine. Harder still to have sympathy for one of his dearest friends, Edward “Fast Eddie” Vrdolyak. But one of the twists of this case that had to be wrenching for Levine is that in trying to save himself from a lifetime behind bars, he apparently had to wire up on and sell out someone he truly cared about. And so he secretly recorded conversations that would give the FBI and the U.S. attorney’s office the chance to do what they have dreamed of doing for decades: build a case against the Dark Lord of the 10th Ward.
Vrdolyak, a former alderman who once ran for Chicago mayor, is a millionaire many times over, thanks to the taxpayers of Cicero and other hapless municipalities that paid him seven figures annually for his “advice and counsel.” One of his ill-fated advisees, former Cicero Town President Betty Loren Maltese, sits in federal prison now after being convicted of corruption.
Though he has been investigated a dozen times, the catlike Vrdolyak has easily had nine lives. Until now.
- Who are the “certain State of Illinois officials” with whom Rezko allegedly had clout to influence appointments to state boards?
In the early Blagojevich years, who in the governor’s office–other than the governor himself, of course–had the authority to suggest formal appointments to state boards whose decisions had huge financial impacts?
- Did any staff member ever express concern to Blagojevich that Rezko was exerting influence over his appointment process?
- Who, if the indictment is correct, preserved a scheme to steer decisions on teacher pension system investments by derailing a proposed consolidation of that fund with two others?
- Was anyone in the governor’s office aware of the alleged plot to extort $1.5 million in political contributions from an investment firm?
- What does the Rezko indictment–and now the Levine plea agreement–say about your 2002 campaign pledge to end “business as usual” in Illinois if you became governor?
- And the seventh question: Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan says the governor’s office should make public any federal subpoenas issued to his administration–and stop withholding them from view. Illinois government belongs to the people, Governor. Why won’t you show them the subpoenas?
The Sun-Times has a “getting personal” feature that it does with candidates [and maybe other people, I’m not sure]. Here are Judy Baar Topinka’s responses:
1. Last movie you felt like walking out of? If I pay money for a movie, and it’s not good, I sit there in hopes that it will get better.
2. iPod, CD player or radio? Radio.
3. TV show you try not to miss? NY Times Discover Channel — I like the archeology segments.
4. Weirdest trick you can do? Make a face like a Sharpei dog.
5. Food you wouldn’t eat on a bet? Monkey brains or cockroaches.
6. Worst punishment you got as a kid? Making me sit quietly.
7. Book all Americans should read? 1984
1. Last movie you felt like walking out of? “I don’t know that I’ve ever walked out of a movie.”
2. iPod, CD player or radio? CDs. “But I do now have a little iPod that I rarely listen to.”
3. TV show you try not to miss? “I watch sports on TV, you know, when I’m home. And we’ll watch movies. And I love old movies.”
4. Weirdest trick you can do? “I can spin a basketball on all five fingers of my right hand. Oh, and I can memorize 43 tangible, concrete words.”
5. Food you wouldn’t eat on a bet? “Liver. Right? Oooooofff. Can’t.”
6. Worst punishment you got as a kid? Getting spanked by his father for interfering with a spanking his brother was getting.
7. Book all Americans should read? “A phony answer is Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America. Everybody recommends that book, and I bet none of ‘em read it. . . . Can I think about that one?”
* Rhodes: Lawyers vet their cases for conflicts of interest within their firms. Reporters try to be similarly vigilant. Plus, Patti Blagojevich only has a few clients a year. What’s ridiculous is that a real estate agent whose husband is the governor wouldn’t keep track of whether her clients had contracts with the state. Unless she didn’t want to know - or already did.
* Plan links minimum pay in state to inflation - Gov, mayor urge $1 hike, yearly boosts
* Last toll on state open-road tolling project finished
