* My weekly syndicated newspaper column, reformatted to Crain’s style…
Let’s talk about one of the weirdest things that happened this campaign season.
Earlier this year, ultraconservative activist Jack Roeser told me that his friend Bruce Rauner believed life began at conception. “I’d describe him as a guy who is a morally right-to-life guy, but not on the hustings,” Mr. Roeser, who has since passed away, said about Mr. Rauner.
Jack and many of his right-to-life allies backed Mr. Rauner every step of the way, while the candidate, who belatedly admitted that he’s pro-choice, spent much of the Republican primary focusing his attention on pledging battles with Springfield Democrats and their teachers union allies and fighting for term limits.
The candidate has often said that he has “no social agenda,” and would instead focus solely on cleaning up government and getting the economy running again. But he also wanted to avoid stressing social issues for fear of alienating a relatively small but still important base of Republican voters who just won’t vote for a pro-choicer of any party. Every vote counts, especially if you’re a Republican running in Democratic-leaning Illinois.
But the issue exploded during the campaign’s final week. As I’ve told you before, Local 150 of the Operating Engineers Union — one of Gov. Pat Quinn’s strongest supporters — spent big bucks supporting the unabashedly pro-life, pro-gun Libertarian Party candidate for governor, Chad Grimm. The idea was to siphon votes away from the GOP candidate. Like I said, every vote counts if you’re a Republican in Illinois.
The Republican Party of Illinois pushed back, sending mailers and doing thousands of robocalls warning Republicans that Mr. Quinn and his allies were trying to “steal” the election by pushing the Libertarian, and claiming that Mr. Grimm was for gay marriage and belonged to a party that is officially pro-choice.
Mr. Rauner has contributed about 80 percent of every dollar the party has raised. He installed a loyal ally as party chairman. They haven’t done much over there without first checking in with the candidate.
Meanwhile, the pro-choice group Personal PAC launched a TV attack ad on Mr. Rauner in Chicago. The ad urged viewers to vote for the statewide ballot initiative on employer mandated birth control, and claimed Mr. Rauner had given millions to “right-wing groups and politicians who oppose birth control coverage”
Mr. Rauner himself had earlier aired a TV ad only in the Chicago area touting his “pro-choice” views. The Personal PAC ad was designed to counter Rauner’s message.
Not long after, the Rauner-funded Illinois Republican Party countered the Personal PAC ad with a Chicago TV ad claiming that the pro-choice Mr. Rauner was for employer-funded birth control.
Talk about your mixed messages on all sides.
You’ve got your Quinn-backing unions pushing an anti-union Libertarian because he’s pro-life and pro-gun, while giving even more money to Mr. Quinn, who is pro-choice and a major proponent of gun control.
You’ve got your Republican candidate claiming he’s pro-choice.
And you’ve got the almost totally Rauner-funded state GOP saying he’s for employer-funded birth control while spending big bucks (mostly Mr. Rauner’s) to warn rank and file Republicans against voting for a pro-gay marriage candidate from a pro-choice party.
Whew.
The Democrats were outraged, incensed even that Mr. Rauner would be so duplicitous. It was proof, they said, that Mr. Rauner was really anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage at heart.
The Democrats only said that in Chicago, of course.
The truth is they’ve been planning this all along. Folks at the very top of the Quinn campaign told me during the summer they were going to make trouble for Mr. Rauner with Downstate conservatives by pushing him as far to the left as they could in Chicago.
The Democrats’ close allies helped keep the pro-life, pro-gun Libertarian on the ballot when the Republicans tried to kick him off and then they funded his campaign in order to peel votes away from Rauner.
In other words, the Quinn campaign was behind what spies call a “false flag operation.” And Mr. Rauner funded two diametrically opposed advertising messages about abortion at the same time in an attempt to save his political neck.
I don’t know who will win the election. But I sure know who lost.
You.
* Meanwhile, this e-mail coming to light is probably not what you want to see when you’re on a major Downstate swing trying to gin up the conservative base…
From: Diana Rauner
Sent: Friday, October 31, 2014 4:04 PM
Subject: Bruce Rauner is pro-choice!
Hi friends, so sorry to flood your inbox, but you know how committed I am to reproductive rights; and I can’t stand to sit by while Personal PAC unleashes yet another round of attacks against Bruce. Here are the facts:
Bruce has been one of the largest supporters of the ACLU Reproductive Rights Project for over 20 years. He has been a major supporter of Planned Parenthood both locally and nationally for a similar time, such that Cecile Richards told her local staff in Illinois earlier this year, “if I hear anything negative about Bruce Rauner my head will explode.”
Bruce has been unequivocal in his support for reproductive rights throughout a contentious Republican primary and publicly stated his support for reproductive rights in primary debates. He won the primary despite his pro-choice stance, in part by convincing pro-lifers to put aside their views on this issue in favor of economic ones.
Bruce has been in conversation with Personal PAC for over two years. Theirs was the only questionnaire that he has completed in this race, and the only question he got “wrong” was on parental notification. Bruce supports it– I don’t, but 75-80% of the population does, including a majority of people who consider themselves pro-choice.
* New York Times…
Democrats are nervously counting on an enduring edge among female voters in most states to prevent a Republican rout in Tuesday’s elections. Yet so great is the uncertainty that even before the returns are in, some are second-guessing the party’s strategy of focusing more on issues like abortion and birth control than on jobs and the economy.
The danger for Democratic candidates is that their advantage among women could be so reduced by dissatisfaction with President Obama and the country’s course that it is not enough to offset Republicans’ usual edge among the smaller population of male voters. Should that happen, a party pollster, Geoff Garin, acknowledged, “They’ll lose.”
But he and other Democratic strategists professed optimism, however tempered, for the party’s imperiled Senate majority, among other things. Mr. Garin pointed to surveys of states with the most competitive Senate contests showing that on average Democratic candidates lead among women by about 12 points, while men favor the Republican by an average of nine points. Since women account for more than half the electorate, Democrats theoretically can withstand some erosion of support.
As for the party’s emphasis on women’s issues, he said, “If Democrats weren’t running on these issues, the situation would be much worse.” […]
“On balance, I am not convinced the Democrats will make sufficient inroads with white women to make up for the margin by which they are going to lose white men,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster.
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Early voting and GOTV
Saturday, Nov 1, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Tribune has a really good story up about GOTV and early voting. Let’s start with a couple of charts…
* Those vote by mail (absentee) numbers for Chicago are going to rise by a lot, and may in other places as well.
Four years ago, about 65 percent of all Chicago absentee ballot requests were eventually mailed in. This year, Chicago has received just shy of 55,000 requests. So, if the return percentages hold (and they may not, we’ll see) we could see 35-36,000 absentee ballots counted.
Also, there are still a couple of days left for early voting, so we’ll see where those numbers end up.
* From the Tribune story…
As of Thursday, more people statewide had already voted early, either in person or by mail, than had done so in the last race for governor in 2010, according to officials involved in the Democratic get-out-the-vote effort. Four years ago, 546,630 ballots were cast early, they said. This year, the count stood at 554,549 ballots cast with four days of early voting opportunities yet to go, Democratic officials said.
* Regarding the Dems…
Those Democratic efforts have counted significantly upon maximizing the volume of mail-in votes — absentee ballots in the old election parlance — as well as early voting that began Oct. 20. Statewide, Democratic officials said, they have reached out to more than 2.2 million people through mailings, literature dropped at the house or face-to-face contacts. They are hoping to improve on 2010 results, when midterm turnout was roughly 49 percent and more than 3.7 million ballots were cast.
* But what does this really mean? The object here is to expand the electorate, not just get people to vote early. And many people are voting early because it’s a lot more convenient, or because they fell they can finally tune out the political bickering by voting, or whatever. Yes, both parties are pushing it, but early and mail-in voting is up everywhere and much of that is a natural occurrence.
* As I told you months ago, the Quinnsters were hoping to increase their electorate by 250,000 over four years ago. It’s not gonna be close to that, despite millions spent on the effort. Let’s switch over to Greg Hinz for a moment…
According to strategist Pete Giangreco, who handled the state Democratic Party’s vote-by-mail program, Mr. Quinn so far may have picked up an additional 40,000 votes or so just in the Chicago area. Mr. Giangreco gets that figure by comparing who returned their ballot — the party provided envelopes that included tracking information — with their primary voting history.
Based on that and other factors, the party assumes that only about half of those who had returned ballots by early this week did so because the party mailed them an application. Of those who did vote, 85 percent will support Mr. Quinn, he said. That yields the 40,000 figure.
I’m hearing the Durbin campaign thinks the number is maybe half that, but we’ll see.
* Back to the Tribune and the GOP side of the fence…
A big share of Republican get-out-the-vote efforts will be centered in the GOP-leaning suburban collar counties, with more money devoted to organizing and more boots on the ground. Statewide, Rauner campaign manager Chip Englander said a key target has been voters in 600,000 households thought to be open to voting for the Republican. Englander said an even greater focus has been put on voters in another 400,000 household who traditionally vote for Republicans but only in presidential election years.
He acknowledged Democrats have “perfected” a turnout model encouraging early voting and voting by mail, but Englander said the Rauner camp has “made a huge investment and a big push” for those votes and is satisfied with the effort. “They’ve never been up against someone like us,” he said.
The Rauner campaign has national winds at their back. The Democrats are fighting headwinds. So, convincing non-traditional off-year voters to cast a ballot could be easier for the Republicans than the Democrats, which is why the Dems spent so much money on this project.
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Saturday caption contest!
Saturday, Nov 1, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Saturdays are usually my lowest traffic days by far. However, since the election is just days away, maybe it’ll be higher today. And maybe this will help boost numbers…
…Adding… The Frerichs campaign’s “caption”…
Democrat Mike Frerichs, candidate for state treasurer, is questioning 22-year incumbent Republican Tom Cross’ commitment to reforming Springfield today after pictures surfaced of Tom Cross campaigning with scandal-plagued incumbent Dan Rutherford. The picture of Cross and Rutherford campaigning together in Pontiac was posted by Rutherford at 9:46 pm last night to his Twitter account, @RutherfordDan.
Rutherford’s office was the target of a scathing auditor general report this summer that found he spent $328,000 in taxpayer dollars over just two years to ramp up an internship program in his office that was filled with the sons and daughter’s of the politically connected. According to the Chicago Sun-Times, the interns were handpicked by Rutherford with no application process. Frerichs has also criticized the state treasurer’s office for:
1. Renewing the state’s contract with OppenheimerFunds to manage Bright Start, even after the firm lost $150 million in college savings belonging to 65,000 Illinoisans, and even though the firm is being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. A recent report by investment firm Morningstar also indicates that many Bright Start families are paying above-average fees for lackluster returns, and the report criticizes Illinois for offering parents sub-par tax benefits for college savings;
2. Failing to maximize the state’s investment in Illinois technology companies through Illinois’ Technology Development Accounts, a public-private partnership. Despite an independent study showing that prior investments have created more than 1,000 jobs in Illinois and attracted roughly $150 million in private investment, Rutherford failed to expand the bipartisan program;
3. Refusing to release the results of a taxpayer-funded investigation into allegations of Illinois State Treasurer’s Office employees being coerced to do campaign work on Rutherford’s behalf;
4. Devoting 1/3 of the staff of the state treasurer’s office to promoting his failed bid for governor under the guise of the I-Cash Program, including the coordination of the I-Cash Program with campaign stops.
“Illinois is ready for reform, but Tom Cross is not,” says Frerichs. “Republican Leader Cross was on Blagojevich’s clout list, and according to state records he tried to get jobs for 46 different people. Throughout the campaign, Republican Tom Cross said he thinks Dan Rutherford is doing a good job. I don’t think there is a voter in Illinois who thinks Dan Rutherford passing up the chance to create thousands of jobs for regular people while growing internships for his friends and donors is a job well done.“
Frerichs adds “As state treasurer, on day one I will launch an independent audit of the office to root out patronage and waste, enforce the ban on state employees doing political work, and release the taxpayer funded investigation as Dan Rutherford promised. Tom Cross says he thinks Dan Rutherford is doing a good job, but I believe the people of Illinois deserve better.”
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News from the front
Saturday, Nov 1, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a reader…
I’m sure you’re getting all kinds of these reports, but Rauner’s GOTV targeting is puzzling. I was at my father-in-law’s house in Bradley. He and his neighbor both have voted in the last 3 Dem primaries and have Kate Cloonen signs in their yards.
A Rauner “volunteer” knocked on both their doors and asked who they were voting for in the Governor’s race. Just really odd to me that they’re knocking on Dem doors with what appears to be an ID question the weekend before the election. She clearly was working off a list as well.
This has going on for quite a while now and I’m puzzled as well. The Rauner folks clearly believe that they can flip lots of Democratic voters to their guy.
But an ID canvass a few days before the election is, indeed, odd.
Either they’re brilliant or stupid. We’ll know Tuesday night (or Wednesday, depending).
* On the other side of the fence, the AFL-CIO sent this out today…
Michael T. Carrigan, President of the Illinois AFL-CIO announced the election strategy for labor. The Illinois AFL-CIO’s Labor 2014 program has already contacted more than 200,000 voters in key areas with personal phone calls and home visits and will include hundreds of union volunteers canvassing the state by going door-to-door and making phone calls this weekend and continuing through Election Day.
“Our major focus for these midterm elections is to ensure justice and equality for workers by getting voters to the polls early,” Carrigan said. “Illinois is facing a critical moment and we are doing everything we can to re-elect Governor Pat Quinn, as well as focusing on sending pro-worker candidates to Congress and the State Capitol.”
Thousands of union volunteers are hitting the streets and phones over the final weekend to interact directly with the voters, communicating the stakes of this election for working people. This weekend’s mobilization caps the Illinois AFL-CIO’s months-long campaign to ensure workers have a voice on Election Day.
“Labor’s unified efforts are sure to be felt throughout the state for years to come. We have been going beyond our member households to reach working people in every corner of Illinois, because we care about all working families,” Carrigan continued. “This is what labor does best – talk one-on-one and organize around the issues. This is something that out-of-state billionaires trying to buy this election aren’t able to do and why they will be wasting their money – because Illinois is not for sale.”
* Meanwhile, in RICO…
Four days before Election Day, a local Republican Party leader filed a lawsuit Friday afternoon against the Rock Island County Clerk in an effort to get the clerk’s office to recalibrate every voting machine before Nov. 4.
“I don’t believe it’s an intentional effort to steal the election, and I don’t think there’s any conspiracy, but there’s a problem with the machines, and they need to be checked,” William Bloom, Rock Island County Republican chairman, said in telephone interview.
Bloom added that he has heard from more than 30 voters who tried to vote for a Republican candidate only to have the Democrat selected on the machine’s touch screen.
On Thursday, Bloom threatened to take legal action against Rock Island County Clerk Karen Kinney if she failed to respond to his concerns regarding the voting machines by noon Friday.
In a news release Bloom sent to the media Thursday, he also asked that a Democratic and Republican judge, of the Republican Party’s choosing, observe the recalibration process with a Republican poll watcher.
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* As we discussed last night, Gov. Quinn’s campaign has a new radio ad appearing on African-American radio stations. The campaign sent it over a bit ago. It’s controversial, to say the least…
* Script…
Here’s Republican Billionaire Bruce Rauner, telling a story, at a recent conservative Republican fundraiser.
“Four African-American TSA Security Guards, big guys, they rushed up to me, they looked like they played for the Bears. I was like, they said “HEY!” I thought Wow, I’m not carrying my gun, what’s going on? They said “HEY you’re running for Governor.” I said, “Yes I am, you scared me, don’t do that.”
If that’s the kind of story Bruce Rauner tells behind closed-doors at a Republican fundraiser, what’s it going to be like if he’s in the Governor’s mansion?
Rauner poured money into right-wing groups that are campaigning to impeach President Obama. And Rauner wants to legalize deadly assault weapons and cut the minimum wage.
We need a Governor like Pat Quinn who’s stood up for us – fighting for people’s rights and dignity – with courage and respect.
Gov. Quinn: “Taxpayers for Quinn paid for this message because there’s so much at stake.”
* One of the reasons why it’s so controversial is what they cut out. Here’s the full clip…
* The clipped quote…
“You know what, all four of us are Democrats. We love your commercials, we love your wife. We’re all voting for you.”
This was intended as a story, told to whites, about how he was making inroads with African-Americans.
But the setup to that punchline is still problematic.
* So, either this is gonna blow up in Quinn’s face because he didn’t tell the whole story (I can almost envision the Tribune editorial headline), or it’s gonna blow up in Rauner’s.
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Good morning!
Saturday, Nov 1, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’ve had the pleasure and the privilege of buying several Michael Mayosky paintings over the years. My favorite, though, is hanging at the Brewhaus. It’s of my late, great friend “Raoul Brotherman,” a musician and human the likes of whom we will never see again.
Also, I’m in this video. See if you can spot me…
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* Audio from an obscure YouTube video is playing on African-American radio stations in Chicago as part of a new and destined to be highly controversial ad.
I’ve heard tons of buzz since late this afternoon, but I don’t yet have the ad. I asked the Quinn campaign earlier today and received no response, so I spent the last three hours listening to WVON trying to record it, but it never came on. I gave up. And then John V. Moore tweeted out the video.
Watch it…
* Transcript…
“Four African-American TSA guards, big guys, came and they rushed up to me. They looked like they played for the Bears.
“They said ‘Hey!’ I said [hands raised] “Wow, I’m not carrying my gun, what’s going on? Hold, what?’ [Laughter] They said ‘Hey! You’re running for governor.’ I said ‘Yes, I am, you scared me, don’t do that.’”
That video was posted last month. It’s unclear who’s behind the YouTube account.
* I asked Moore if he recalled anything about the rest of the radio ad…
“Yeah, it’s an African American male voice over. He said the audio was captured at a Republican or conservative event. After the audio the voice over mentions that Rauner has funded organizations that are trying to impeach President Obama.”
And, he said, it’s a Taxpayers for Quinn spot. That was finally confirmed by the Quinn campaign tonight.
* I asked the Rauner campaign for comment a couple of hours ago, and recently sent them the YouTube link. I’ll let you know what they say.
*** UPDATE 1 *** The Quinn campaign sent over the script…
Here’s Republican Billionaire Bruce Rauner, telling a story, at a recent conservative Republican fundraiser.
“Four African-American TSA Security Guards, big guys, they rushed up to me, they looked like they played for the Bears. I was like, they said “HEY!” I thought Wow, I’m not carrying my gun, what’s going on? They said “HEY you’re running for Governor.” I said, “Yes I am, you scared me, don’t do that.”
If that’s the kind of story Bruce Rauner tells behind closed-doors at a Republican fundraiser, what’s it going to be like if he’s in the Governor’s mansion?
Rauner poured money into right-wing groups that are campaigning to impeach President Obama. And Rauner wants to legalize deadly assault weapons and cut the minimum wage.
We need a Governor like Pat Quinn who’s stood up for us – fighting for people’s rights and dignity – with courage and respect.
Gov. Quinn: “Taxpayers for Quinn paid for this message because there’s so much at stake.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** Updated with comment from the governor’s campaign…
Our ad includes Bruce Rauner in his own words.
This is just another example of Mr. Rauner saying one thing privately in front of an all-Republican audience and another thing publicly in the city of Chicago. People can judge for themselves whether his comments are appropriate or not.
Also, remember this guy?…
*** UPDATE 3 *** Not that it really matters, because there was no real reason for him to mention their race (and he usually doesn’t when he tells this story), but here’s the full video…
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Karen Lewis endorses Chuy Garcia for mayor
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis released a video Friday night throwing her support behind Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia as he prepares to challenge Mayor Rahm Emanuel in late February.
Lewis had been preparing her own run for mayor before being diagnosed with a cancerous brain tumor a few weeks ago. The video features Lewis wearing a fashionable head covering and offering her endorsement of Garcia in a series of jump cuts.
* The video…
* Sun-Times…
Garcia is the keynote speaker at the CTU’s 2014 Legislators and Educators Appreciation Dinner Friday night.
Also running for Chicago mayor against Emanuel is Ald. Bob Fioretti (2nd).
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Quinn, Rauner head downstate
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It’s my tradition to keep the blog open on the last weekend before a general election. I can’t promise many posts. I have to be in Chicago for the pre-election party I host every couple of years, so we’ll see what happens. And, for sure don’t expect anything early Sunday morning.
I used to keep comments open every weekend, but some of y’all would have a few adult beverage on a Friday or Saturday night and then would come home and comment away, sometimes angrily.
Please, refrain from doing that. Thanks.
* OK, on to the story from David Ormsby…
Downstate Illinois is getting a big chunk of time from gubernatorial candidates in the 2014 campaign’s final weekend.
With polls showing that Republican Downstate dominance somewhat slipping in the race for Illinois governor, both Governor Pat Quinn and GOP challenger Bruce Rauner are or will be in the region this weekend, starting on Friday.
The governor started his day in Chicago, but then headed to UIUC to award some education and agriculture grants, then traveled to Mount Vernon and Edwardsville to hand out even more money. He’s in the Quad Cities this weekend for a rally with FLOTUS.
Rauner’s schedule has him in 14 cities over the next three days, with 11 of those towns outside the collar counties. He’ll be in southern Illinois, Quincy, Lawrenceville, Carmi, Harrisburg, and Marion on Saturday. On Sunday, he will be in Chicago and a suburban town, but then travels to East Alton and Peoria. On Monday, Jim Edgar and Rauner swing through Bloomington, Springfield, Moline, Rockford, and Lincolnshire.
* Back to Ormsby…
Recent polling has shown that Rauner has been underperforming the 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Bill Brady, who captured 59% of the Downstate vote. Rauner is drawing as little as 45% up to 53% in surveys.
Rauner’s poorer showing Downstate is partly reflected by the presence of Libertarian Party gubernatorial candidate Chad Grimm on the November 4 ballot. According to a recent Illinois Observer poll, Grimm is drawing 8.5% of the Downstate vote, a fact that is hurting the GOP nominee.
Rauner’s weekend schedule of stops in Southern, Central, Western and Northern Illinois is the starkest signal yet of the concerns by his campaign about the GOP base. The wealthy venture capitalist had intended to pry a higher than average share of votes out of Chicago from disenchanted Democrats to build a winning coalition. That strategy depended on support from a robust GOP base in Southern and Central Illinois in order to free him to focus his energy on poaching votes in Chicago.
…Adding… Keep in mind, however, that Rauner could just be making one last pass to fire up the base. While most of the vote is around Chicago, and he does need to be there (and will be, and will get his face on TV), it’s not a guaranteed sign of weakness.
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Emptying out my in-box
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Simon Edelman’s closer is pretty darned good…
* In other news, Gov. Pat Quinn held a press conference today at a Chicago training center for new school “Safe Passage” workers. Some reporters surmised that it had more to do with politics than with an official governmental event…
* So, they played a little hardball…
While Mayor Rahm Emanuel let politics trump friendship in backing Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn over Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, Quinn didn’t return the favor Friday when asked if Emanuel deserves another term in office.
“I am going to deal with my election on Tuesday, there will be plenty of time to talk about that,” Quinn told reporters after appearing with Emanuel at a training session that turned into a political rally for hundreds of new Safe Passage workers hired by Chicago Public Schools.
* Listen…
* Meanwhile, Rauner is hitting the road. AP…
Former Gov. Jim Edgar will campaign with fellow Republican Bruce Rauner as Rauner makes his final push to become Illinois’ next governor.
Edgar is scheduled to join Rauner Monday in Bloomington, Springfield, Moline, Rockford and the Chicago suburbs. […]
Edgar supported then-state Sen. Kirk Dillard in the GOP primary. He says in a statement Friday that after 12 years of Democratic governors “voters are eager for change” and Rauner is “exactly what Illinois needs.”
* Sun-Times…
In the closing days of toss-up campaigns, Sen. Mark Kirk R-Ill., is stumping with GOP governor nominee Bruce Rauner and former Rep. Bob Dold, R-Ill., at events in his old north suburban House district, turf where Kirk has the strongest coattails.
On Saturday morning, Kirk— a Highland Park resident, in the 10th district — and Rep. Peter Roskam R-Ill. are featured at a Dold get-out-the-vote rally at the Lincolnshire Marriott, in the heart of the 10th congressional district where Dold is in a tight battle with Rep. Brad Schneider D-Ill.
On Monday night, Kirk will be the featured guest at Rauner’s final GOTV rally of the campaign Monday night in the 10th District, which could also provide a boost to Dold. Rauner’s race with Gov. Pat Quinn is winding up in a dead heat.
Kirk is also doing a recorded call targeting suburban voters, urging a vote for Bruce.
* Other stuff from my in-box or keeping my browser tabs open…
* For Rauner and GOP, magic number in Illinois House is 1
* NYT: Voters in Illinois Governor’s Race to Choose ‘Failure’ or the ‘Billionaire’
* Pipefitters union puts up billboard supporting Emanuel
* Chicago dominates top of state list with elite schools, with a catch
* Schilling distributes tabloid mailer as race against Bustos nears finish line
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Inducement or just a party?
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As we’ve discussed before, state law is pretty clear about offering inducements to register or vote…
Sec. 29-1. Vote buying.
Any person who knowingly gives, lends or promises to give or lend any money or other valuable consideration to any other person to influence such other person to vote or to register to vote or to influence such other person to vote for or against any candidate or public question to be voted upon at any election shall be guilty of a Class 4 felony.
* So, was this rally illegal?…
* Before you answer, the rally was held just 89 feet from the county building, the only early voting location in Pike County. It’s almost right next door. The flier was sent to me by a Republican, by the way.
I called the number on the flier and the guy on the other end didn’t say much. I called and e-mailed the state’s attorney and left a message, but he hasn’t responded.
* I reached out to noted election law attorney Burt Odelson, and his response, in a nutshell, was yes, it’s illegal because it clicked all the legal switches.
* This is the only response I’ve received from the Pittsfield area…
Please find the Pike County Democrats response to your inquiry. On October 25th the Pike County Democrats held a Democrat rally. We were pleased with the turn out and we’re happy with the event. We had people at the event who had already voted, people who who planned to vote later, and people who were voting on election day. Everyone was welcome at the event. Thank you for your interest in the pike County Democrats.
Rick Toumbs
* But as usual with these things, another election law attorney I consulted, a Democrat, said it could go either way…
It can be argued that it is a rally and that people are eligible for a prize for going to the rally and not for voting. Or one could argue that it is for voting.
But the mailer says door prizes which would appear to make them attendance prizes.
He also hinted that he doubted the state’s attorney would do anything, since he’s on the flier.
Your thoughts?
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Question of the day
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The ILGOP is running a TV ad touting Bruce Rauner’s support for “employer-provided birth control,” which is in response to a Personal PAC ad saying Rauner opposes it.
While airing those ads, the ILGOP is sending out mailers and doing robocalls blasting Libertarian Chad Grimm for being for gay marriage and belonging to a party that’s pro-choice.
* Meanwhile, Gov. Quinn’s running mate and other Democrats are holding a press conference blasting Rauner for essentially paying for those ILGOP pro-life, anti gay marriage mailers.
But the ILGOP is sending those mailers and doing those robocalls because some labor unions, which are also huge Quinn supporters, are spending big bucks to bolster the Libertarian Grimm by hammering Rauner in mail and robocalls for being pro-choice and anti-gun.
Got all that?
Good…
* The Question: Have you lost your mind yet? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey software
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
“Chicago-based Exelon’s profit rose 26 percent in the third quarter…The country’s largest owner of nuclear power plants, Exelon reported net income of $993 million…”[Chicago Tribune, October 29, 2014 – emphasis added]
Just this past week, a Crain’s analysis revealed that contrary to their claims, Exelon may not be in dire straits after all:
“The analysis…raises questions about whether the state effectively will be asked to compel ratepayers to subsidize a profitable enterprise.” [Crain’s, October 27, 2014 – emphasis added]
Illinois’ businesses and citizens are still struggling. The last thing we need is a massive rate increase to bail out Exelon nuclear plants built during the Nixon administration and already paid for several times by ratepayers.
Even ComEd, Exelon’s own sister company, doesn’t agree with subsidized generation at above-market prices:
“ComEd has long believed that competitive markets will work in the best interests of our customers…so we are concerned about the negative impact on our customers from a requirement that would force utilities to buy subsidized generation at above-market prices.” [Crain’s Chicago Business, November 20, 2013]
Just Say No To Exelon’s $580 Million Rate Hike!!
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Very late Rauner oppo
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Likely too late to make any difference and maybe not even enough to get picked up by any other media outlets. Click here and here.
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*** UPDATED x2 *** And speaking of abortion…
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As noted below, the IL GOP is paying for a new TV ad touting Bruce Rauner’s support of employer birth control coverage. As we’ve already discussed, the IL GOP is also spending big bucks attacking the Libertarian Party candidate Chad Grimm on social issues. Greg Hinz has more…
GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner frequently has said he “has no social agenda” on hot button issues such as gay marriage and abortion, even emphasizing through his wife, Diana Rauner, that he in fact is pro-choice. But in the final days of his campaign, his money is saying something else.
In the past 24 hours, Rauner-funded flyers and robocalls have surfaced that savage another candidate for governor, Libertarian Chad Grimm, for backing same-sex marriage and legal abortion. Republican insiders fear that Mr. Grimm’s small-government message is playing well in conservative sections of the state and could take away votes that otherwise would go to Mr. Rauner.
“Libertarian Chad Grimm’s party supports gay marriage,” says the flyer, which was passed on to me by a Burr Ridge resident who got it in the mail yesterday. A similar phone message that also was also passed on to me says, “His party’s 100 percent pro-choice.”
Both the flyer and the calls were paid for by the Illinois Republican Party.
Mr. Rauner’s campaign, in a statement, denied any responsibility.
“This is not a Bruce Rauner mail piece,” said a spokesman, later extending his comment to cover the robocall after I emailed him a copy. “Bruce doesn’t have a social agenda — he’s pro-choice, comfortable with the existing marriage law and doesn’t seek to change it.”
But it’s impossible to believe that the state party would have send out either communication without the approval from Mr. Rauner. He’s contributed at least $4.5 million to the state party since summer — comprising 80 percent of the party’s total receiptss in the quarter ended Sept. 30. And he largely was responsible for the selection of Tim Schneider as the party’s chairman earlier this year. The previous chairman, Pat Brady, was forced out in part because of a flap over his support for same-sex marriage.
* From the Quinn campaign…
Directly disproving his claim that he “has no social agenda,” Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner is spending millions of dollars attacking reproductive freedom and marriage equality. Crain’s Chicago is reporting that Rauner is bankrolling anti-choice, anti-marriage equality efforts and advertisements. Rauner has sought to hide his beliefs from voters throughout the campaign. Quinn for Illinois communications director Brooke Anderson responded:
“Just days before the election, Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner’s true colors are showing - he really does oppose a woman’s right to choose and equal marriage rights.
“Mr. Rauner cannot be trusted to look out for women’s reproductive freedom and equal marriage rights when in fact he’s spending millions of dollars attacking those freedoms.
“Under Governor Quinn’s leadership, our state has made real progress from enacting marriage equality to one of the strongest pay equity laws in the nation.
“Mr. Rauner’s out-of-touch social agenda would be a setback for women and families in Illinois.”
*** UPDATE 1 *** More from the Quinn campaign…
Quinn for Illinois Media Advisory
**Friday, October 31, 2014**
CHICAGO – Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor Paul Vallas will be joined by women leaders and legislators to discuss Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner’s real position opposing a woman’s right to choose and marriage equality. Crain’s Chicago is reporting that Rauner is bankrolling anti-choice, anti-marriage equality advertisements in the closing days of the campaign.
WHEN: 2 p.m.
WHERE: Personal PAC - 7th Floor
134 N. LaSalle St.
Chicago, 60602
*** UPDATE 2 *** From a press release…
Equality Illinois today condemns Republican nominee for governor Bruce Rauner and the Illinois Republican Party for attacking a rival candidate for supporting marriage equality and women’s rights.
The campaign tactic was funded by Rauner despite his protestations that he has no social agenda, Crain’s Chicago Business reports today.
A flyer and robocalls put out by the Rauner-funded Illinois Republican Party attack Libertarian nominee for governor, Chad Grimm, who Republicans fear will siphon votes from Rauner and help Gov. Pat Quinn win re-election. The article and a copy of the flyer can be seen here: http://tinyurl.com/Rauner-Anti-Gay.
“This is just the latest evidence of Bruce Rauner showing his true conservative social agenda and his opposition to marriage equality for same-sex couples. It is condemnable and unsurprising at the same time,” said Bernard Cherkasov, CEO of Equality Illinois.
“We’ve exposed his repeated statements against marriage equality when he thought he was only speaking to conservative audiences. Now, there is one more direct evidence of Bruce Rauner money funding an anti-marriage equality mailer,” Cherkasov said. “It is clear for all that Bruce Rauner has no moral compass, and will say anything to win, and that makes him unqualified to be Governor of the Land of Abraham Lincoln.”
* Related…
* Associated Press: Gay marriage, abortion issues take back seat in governor’s race
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* As I told subscribers a few days ago, Personal PAC is running a new TV ad…
The spot begins with television news coverage of the “Hobby Lobby” decision, which allowed most businesses to opt out of providing birth control coverage in their employee health insurance. “Is it right for your boss to decide if your birth control is covered?” the ad continues. “Now you get to decide by voting ‘Yes’ to require Illinois health insurers to cover birth control.”
The ad then moves on to the Republican nominee. “Where does Bruce Rauner stand? He donated millions to right-wing groups and politicians who oppose birth control coverage. Vote ‘Yes’ for birth control coverage and vote ‘No’ on Bruce Rauner.”
* The ad…
* Well, the Illinois Republican Party has a new TV ad which calls the Personal PAC spot “Totally false”…
The truth? Bruce Rauner supports employer-provided birth control. Always has.
* Watch…
Notice, however, that the ad doesn’t say Rauner supports the actual ballot measure.
Even so, that could make some conservative heads explode.
This is a substantial buy, I’m told.
* Meanwhile, some unknown somebodies have produced a slick new online video attacking Personal PAC’s Terry Cosgrove…
* Cosgrove sent me an e-mail yesterday in which he says he isn’t the one endorsing candidates…
The Personal PAC Board of Directors votes on all endorsements (I am not a board member) after agreeing on the attached candidate questionnaire language, reviewing all other pertinent information, bringing all new candidates in for a personal interview, or conducts phone interviews for those living far from Chicago. Usually, upward of 20 board members participate in the candidates interviews and take that responsibility very seriously.
After the board officially votes to endorse candidates and sets priorities based on financial projections, it asks that the staff, of which I am one, to implement our program to get our endorsed candidates elected. We in no way attempt to hide or “distort” our process or intentions. […]
The problem for the right-wing is that there are two kinds of anti-choice candidates: those who want to hide their views from everyone except the right-wing and those who think they are clever enough to get away with it. At least they should be honest about that point.
Candidates are, indeed, warned that a non-response is considered to be 100 percent anti pro-choice. Check out the group’s questionnaire by clicking here. The warning about non-response isn’t in the “fine print,” it’s right at the top. A sample letter is here. And this stuff is sent by registered mail several times.
And the group has also spent a fortune protecting pro-choice Republicans and has often attacked Democrats. It’s not as partisan as the video above makes it appear.
* Despite all this, and despite the fact that Cosgrove raises millions of dollars every cycle and has a pretty strong win-loss record, candidates still evade the questionnaire and then scream when they’re attacked. For instance, from House candidate Leslie Munger…
Bolstered by an infusion of campaign cash with only four days until the November 4th election, State Representative Carol Sente (D-Vernon Hills) has moved her negative attacks into high gear, accusing first-time candidate Leslie Munger (R-Lincolnshire) of allowing sexual assaults on women, not protecting women from rape and incest and saying Munger will “stick it to our families.”
In their endorsement of Leslie Munger, the Chicago Tribune called Sente’s campaign, “one of the most disgusting campaigns in the state.” Sente appears to be living up to her reputation.
In the past two weeks, Rep. Sente has received $173,523 from Mike Madigan and the Illinois Democratic Party and an additional $13,873 from Personal PAC, a Springfield lobbying group headed by Terry Cosgrove. In a two-day period, Personal PAC sent four direct mail pieces and directed robo-calls into the 59th district telling people that Leslie Munger would vote for a law that would hurt women who had been sexually assaulted.
The Democratic Party of Illinois also sent three direct mail pieces on behalf of Sente with pictures of young women with captions including “What if I am raped?” and “Leslie Munger will stick it to our families,” claiming Munger would take away a women’s right to choose “even in the case of rape, incest and when the life or health of the mother is at risk.”
Munger has vehemently denied all of the allegations as intentional and malicious lies intended to smear her integrity, misrepresent her views and distract voters from issues Munger has focused on throughout her campaign.
“I believe in freedom and that it is not the role of government to interfere with a woman’s personal health choice,” Munger stated, “I corrected Rep. Sente when she misstated my views on this topic during our Daily Herald endorsement interview which was videotaped. It’s clear she believes it is ok to misrepresent my view on women’s reproductive rights and perpetuate falsehoods to her constituents.”
Notice how she never describes herself as “pro-choice”? She dances close, but can’t quite commit.
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* The Tribune editorial board commented today on a DCEO spokesman’s admission this week that the agency is trying to get new project announcements out the door before election day. You remember that one, right?…
“We have a good story to tell — and do I want to tell it before Nov. 4? Yes. Is that a crime?”
* From the Trib…
As Crain’s pointed out: Quinn committed $22 million to four companies this month alone.
Did taxpayers get snookered in the rush to roll out these projects before Nov. 4? Did the companies slyly extort especially sweet packages, knowing that Team Quinn faced a pre-election deadline to get the deals done?
Those are good questions for Gov. Quinn. Inquiring Illinois taxpayers surely want to know.
Yes, those are good questions.
* But back to the DCEO spokesman for a minute. Longtime commenter “Soccermom” made this valid point the other day…
Being an effective government spokesperson is not actually intuitive — you need to learn (preferably not the hard way) that whenever somebody mentions an election, you refer them to the campaign office. Boom. End of story.
It’s not an issue of “telling the truth.” It’s an issue of knowing where your paycheck comes from. And when you work for the State, your paycheck comes from the residents of Illinois — no matter who they vote for, or even if they vote.
Are the people of Illinois paying you to comment on the election? No, they are not. They are paying you to let them know what the State is doing with their money. That’s your job. Period.
Yep.
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Polling averages, models, projections, etc.
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Huffington Post…
* Real Clear Politics…
* Talking Points Memo…
* Bing.com…
* USA Today…
* ElectionProjection.com…
* 270toWin.com…
* More from Sabato…
That brings us to the seven Toss-ups. Because we now expect overtime in Georgia, we are calling that race a Toss-up, but at the end of the day it would be surprising if the Democrats ultimately won that seat. Also, and while we are keeping these races as Toss-ups in our ratings, it appears that Govs. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Pat Quinn (D-IL) have stabilized their positions, and they seem to have better than even odds to win second, full terms. So that’s three of the seven Toss-ups where we think the incumbent party is positioned to hold on, though we have not made picks yet and we reserve the right to change our minds before the end. Sen. Mark Udall’s (D-CO) seeming decline, in particular, could really hurt Hickenlooper.
Gut feeling?
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Today’s number: $3.5 million
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I told subscribers about this earlier in the week…
A race for a seat in the Illinois Senate representing the Quad-Cities has become the most expensive legislative election in state history.
According to state campaign finance reports, the 36th Senate District battle between Democratic state Sen. Mike Jacobs of East Moline and Republican challenger Neil Anderson of Rock Island has topped the $3.5 million mark as the two hurtle toward the Nov. 4 election.
That figure, according to political scientist Kent Redfield, professor emeritus at the University of Illinois-Springfield, beats a record-breaking 2010 Senate race in which $2.7 million was raised in the contest in which Republican challenger Sam McCann of Carlinville beat then-state Sen. Deanna Demuzio.
The Jacobs-Anderson tilt comes just two years after Jacobs was involved in another expensive race, when more than $2 million was raised in his contest against Republican Bill Albrecht.
…Adding… But that’s a relative pittance compared to the governor’s race…
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Rauner makes “Top 10″ robocall list
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the New York Times…
NoMoRobo, a free service, allows VOIP customers to sign up to block political robocalls, which get around the national “Do Not Call List” because they fall under the nonprofit clarification.
The service’s founder, Aaron Foss, put together a list for First Draft of the top 10 offenders:
* The list…
No. 1: Presidential Coalition (an affiliate of the nonprofit conservative group Citizens United).
No. 2: N.R.A.
No. 3: Crossroads GPS (founded by Karl Rove).
No. 4: Democrats for Senator Mark Warner and John Foust (a House candidate in Virginia).
No. 5: Newt Gingrich Tax Policy Center.
No. 6: National Committee for Family, Faith and Prayer (a Citizens United affiliate).
No. 7: Citizens United.
No. 8: Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin.
No. 9: Larry Hogan, Republican nominee for governor in Maryland.
No. 10: Bruce Rauner, Republican nominee for governor in Illinois.
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Ginning up the base
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the IL GOP…
The Illinois Republican Party sent a second “voter fraud alert” robocall to Illinois Republicans this afternoon, following a new round of questionable issues at polling locations, including an admitted “vote buying” attempt by a Chicago Alderwoman.
“This election is far too important for the Democrats to get away with their attempts to rig the election for Pat Quinn,” said Tim Schneider, Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party. “We deserve a change from the Democrats’ corruption and ‘same-old, same-old’ failures in our state.”
* Robocall script…
Hello, this is Chairman Tim Schneider calling Republicans with another important voter alert. Across the state we’re seeing electronic voting machines that automatically switch a vote from Republican to Democrat. We’re also seeing news reports of Democrats offering money and prizes for votes. Tampering with voting machines and vote-buying is illegal - it’s a felony, and we’re going to make sure anyone who does it gets prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. But we need your help. If you see something, say something. If you suspect your voting machine was mis-calibrated or you see offers of money for votes, call our voter fraud hotline at 312-201-9000. Don’t let the Democrats steal this election - get out and vote, and help us stop voter fraud. This call was paid for by the Illinois Republican Party. 312-201-9000.
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Cool new online stuff
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We Ask America has a new turnout effect calculator. It looks pretty cool, and it ought to because I had a little input into how it was built. From the explanation…
The calculator splits Illinois into four regions (Chicago, Suburban Cook Co., Collar Counties and Downstate) and we preset the turnout in each of those areas to match the 2010 midterm turnout. Of course, you can change those anyway you want. We’ve also populated the vote splits with our latest poll results, but you can wipe that out and put your own numbers. After you twiddle the numbers, click the submit button to see what it does to the final results. The whole thing is designed to fit on an iPad, and we included a RESET button to put all the numbers back to presets.
With the Illinois governor’s race as tight as it seems, this shows how tweaking a few numbers effects the final result. Instructions are on the page (just click on the INSTRUCTIONS button).
Have fun.
Click here to try it out. Post your result in comments and the person who is the closest to all three candidate results will win a steak dinner with Gregg Durham.
Just kidding.
Or not. We’ll see how Gregg reacts to this post.
* Meanwhile, subscribers already know that I’ve endorsed TrackBill, a really well-designed bill tracking system. It constantly scans everything over at LIS and will text or e-mail you right after any sort of legislation is introduced or moves that relates to your interests.
Very cool stuff, but - and this is important - make sure to click on their ad in the center column or click here so this website gets the credit. I love the product, but a guy’s gotta eat.
* Back to politics, the folks at Bing.com would like you to know that they have a fancy new election forecaster. Click here to see how their system sees the Illinois governor’s race playing out.
Have you seen any cool new political apps out there?
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It’s just basic mathematics
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bond expert states the obvious…
In Illinois, which has the most underfunded retirement system among U.S. states with a $100 billion uncovered pension liability, incumbent Democratic governor Pat Quinn wants to turn a temporary income tax rise enacted in 2011 into a permanent one.
His Republican opponent Bruce Rauner wants to phase it out and suggests savings instead, such as ending the practice of ramping up state employees’ pay before they retire to boost their pensions.
“The permanence of that tax increase would make it a better credit,” said Peter Hayes, Head of BlackRock’s Municipal Bonds Group, which holds a variety of Illinois-based debt. Hays said that could potentially make the group notch up its exposure to the state’s debt.
* And now, let’s clean out my in-box. AP…
Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn and Republican challenger Bruce Rauner picked up additional endorsements from newspapers around the state.
The (Carbondale) Southern Illinoisan endorsed Quinn on Wednesday, while The Quincy Herald-Whig endorsed Rauner on Thursday.
The Southern described its choice of Quinn as “the devil you know.” The endorsement says Illinois is a “mess” but questions Rauner’s proposals to reduce the state’s income tax and freeze property taxes.
The Herald-Whig says it backs Rauner because the state needs “bold, decisive leadership.”
* Pat Quinn’s latest 15-second TV ad…
* Tribune…
First lady Michelle Obama will appear Saturday in Moline at a get-out-the-vote rally for three Democrats: Gov. Pat Quinn, Sen. Dick Durbin and Rep. Cheri Bustos.
All three are running for re-election Tuesday and face Republican challenges.
* BND…
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, will attend a rally Sunday in East Alton for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner.
* Not playing well in the sandbox…
In a press release today, the Illinois Conservatives Facebook page announced they are recommending that Illinois conservatives vote for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner in Tuesday’s election.
The announcement caused division within the Facebook page’s leadership. Two longtime conservatives on the board - Downstate businessman Brian Milleville and attorney Sharee Langenstein - resigned after the board voted by 70 percent to endorse Rauner.
* I’ve been warning the GOP about this for a while now. Sending voting reminder notices to Democrats is not a good idea…
* Speaking of the twitters…
Heh.
* Other stuff that’s keeping my browser tabs open all day…
* Bernard Schoenburg: Bell accuses Scherer of ‘illegally’ taking tax break while he got same exemption
* Even with GOP pushback, Libertarians optimistic in final stretch
* Chicago ad execs on the Bruce Rauner and Pat Quinn ad campaigns
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
“Exelon Corp. is urging state utility regulators to press for changes in power markets that would boost revenue at the company’s Illinois nuclear power fleet by about $580 million.” [Crain’s Chicago Business, September 24, 2014]
Exelon wants a $580 million rate hike!! $580 million…for what??? Even if ratepayers bail out Exelon’s plants with $580 million every year, they won’t even guarantee to keep the plants open.
Illinois’ businesses and citizens are still struggling and the last thing we need is a massive rate increase to bail out Exelon nuclear plants built during the Nixon administration and already paid for several times by ratepayers.
Even ComEd, Exelon’s own sister company, doesn’t agree with subsidized generation at above-market prices:
“ComEd has long believed that competitive markets will work in the best interests of our customers…so we are concerned about the negative impact on our customers from a requirement that would force utilities to buy subsidized generation at above-market prices.” [Crain’s Chicago Business, November 20, 2013]
Yet now Exelon is demanding an annual 580 million dollar bailout from ratepayers—industrial, commercial and residential—because they don’t want to face the risks of the market they championed when it helped Exelon. So much for the “best interests of our customers.”
Just Say No To Exelon’s $580 Million Rate Hike!!
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* An uproar developed earlier this week when Bobby Schilling released a secretly recorded conversation with a Cheri Bustos congressional district office employee. The employee made some racist remarks about Rockfordians, and then resigned when Bustos found out.
It’s probably no surprise, but the person who made the recording once worked for Schilling’s campaign…
Austin Quick, 33, was paid a $3,792 salary in 2009 to work for Schilling’s 2010 congressional campaign, records show. He currently is a seminary student at Mundelein Seminary in the Chicago suburbs. […]
[Schilling campaign spokesman Jon Schweppe] said no one from the campaign asked Quick to make the recording. In a Facebook post dated the same week the recording was made, Quick posted a photo of Schilling and his wife and remarked on having had dinner together.
Contacted by phone Thursday, Quick would not say why he made the secret recording. Asked whether he was denying having covertly recorded Bustos’ district director, Heidi Schultz, he replied, “I’m saying there’s no proof to that.”
Schultz, who resigned her post Monday, said she was provided a photo of Quick and is certain he is the man who appeared in her Rock Island district office late last year, asking about her boss’ position on abortion.
* Now, there’s no defense for what that employee said. Zero.
However, the story also notes that the guy gave the Schilling campaign the recording three months ago.
Let’s revisit Schilling’s press release from earlier this week…
This recording is particularly revealing and Cheri Bustos has a lot to answer for. The views stated on the recording are a window into a cynical operation that does not respect the people she serves.
But it’s in no way “cynical” to sit on this until a week before the election?
C’mon.
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Question of the day
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Two of the three gubernatorial candidates bumped into each other today…
* The Question: Caption?
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Dold campaign celebrates Sabato ratings change
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
Adding to the growing momentum leading into Election Day behind Bob Dold’s (R-10) candidacy for Congress, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball – the nationally recognized nonpartisan Congressional rating system that is housed in the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, upgraded its race rating from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Republican.”
Sabato’s move marks the second time that the leading political handicapper shifted the race in Dold’s direction. View the rating’s change here. The Roll Call newspaper has consistently listed Congressman Schneider as one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives.
* They did change the rating, but this is what Sabato’s managing editor wrote…
Finally, Reps. Brad Schneider (D, IL-10) and Rick Nolan (D, MN-8) are perhaps the best bets to survive on this list, but strong challengers could very well do them in, even on Democratic turf.
* By the way, he also wrote this…
We have long said that Rep. Nick Rahall (D, WV-3) is in deep trouble, and we continue to believe that he is the most endangered Democratic House incumbent in the country. Right behind him is Rep. Bill Enyart (D, IL-12), whose southern Illinois seat is trending GOP.
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Rate “K Text”
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Remember the College Republicans’ “Say Yes To Bruce Rauner “ online ad? Despite huge publicity nationally and locally for the political spoof of a popular cable TV show, it has received fewer than 15,000 views, less than any other state where the ad appeared.
The Quinn campaign’s “Wolf of Winnetka” online ad, which y’all absolutely hated and which got zero earned media, has more than twice as many views as the College GOP ad, 32K+. The follow-up to that “Wolf” ad has almost 24,000 views so far, more than half again as many as the “Say Yes To The Dress” spoof.
I guess there’s no accounting for taste.
* Here’s the new College GOP ad for your amusement. It’s called “K Text”..
Hat tip: Illinois Review.
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Today’s quotable
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From last night’s debate between Congressman Bill Enyart and Republican challenger Mike Bost Here’s Bost answering a question about corporate personhood…
“I believe that corporate…corporate…corporations that are making up this United States are also individuals, that those individuals have rights and therefore the corporations have rights to establish what they believe because if you go…and and we’re talking about Hobby Lobby, but how about if we go down to the family farm which is also incorporated? When we start telling them that, okay, you’re incorporated, now you can’t follow your own religious beliefs. I don’t agree with it and I’m…I’m just adamantly opposed.”
If you watch the video, he received significant applause for that one.
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* From a fundraising pitch by the Frerichs campaign…
Yesterday, the Koch Brothers-backed American Future Fund bought attack ads on 12 downstate radio stations in an attempt to rescue Tom Cross’s Treasurer bid.
This is the same PAC that spent millions to limit labor rights in California and has backed extremist conservative candidates across the nation.
This should come as no surprise, as Tom Cross has time and again put the Koch brothers and other big business interests ahead of Illinois residents. Cross voted against legislation to warn parents of contaminated drinking water and against a bill to protect Lake Michigan from waste dumping, siding with corporate interests.
Don’t let the Koch Brothers buy the State Treasurer’s race! Donate $10, $25, or $30 today so Mike can reform the State Treasurer’s office so that it works for the people of Illinois instead of the special interests!
Thank you!
Team Frerichs
The Koch ties are somewhat tenuous, but, whatever, it’s a fundraising e-mail. You can’t fire people up by screaming “Nick Ryan!”
* Listen to the ad…
* The AFF press release…
The American Future Fund Political Action issued a new radio advertisement in support of Illinois Treasurer candidate Tom Cross. The ad focuses on Cross’ experience, bipartisan record, and reform-minded approach to clean up Springfield, stand up to the Governor’s deficit spending, and protect the hard-earned tax dollars of Illinois families.
The ad, titled “Clear Choice,” is airing on radio stations statewide.
Nick Ryan, Chairman of the American Future Fund Political Action, said: “The Illinois state government has become a pool of corruption that is wasting tax dollars for the benefit of corrupt politicians. Time has come for a change in Springfield. There is one candidate in the race for Illinois Treasurer who will stand up and fight this corruption and stand with Illinois voters – and that choice is Tom Cross.”
* The official Frerichs campaign media statement…
Across three decades, when energy companies and polluters have needed a friend in Springfield, Tom Cross has been their man. Tom Cross was one of only a handful of lawmakers to oppose bipartisan legislation backed by Mark Kirk, Barack Obama and even Jim Durkin to prevent toxic sledge from being dumped near Lake Michigan, and Tom Cross voted to allow toxic mercury into the drinking water of millions. Its no surprise the Koch Brothers, who are leading the charge against the environment in Illinois, are coming to rescue their friend Tom Cross.
The group has not yet filed a report with the State Board of Elections.
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McKeon upset by “hatchet job”
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From pollster Mike McKeon regarding my opinion of yesterday’s Sun-Times poll story…
Rich, hadn’t seen your hatchet job before I talked to you. If you even bothered to check the cross tabs you would have seen that the reporter was referring to the Southern Illinois section of my poll (below) and not downstate out side the collar counties. If you are calling an area that has St Clair, Madison and Jackson counties in it a traditional Republican strong hold then - I fear- you are snorting pixie dust..
If you believe that social issues - which is all the Dem super pacs are pushing -are more important to women then jobs, good luck. And you think Frerichs is a much more traditional ballot name than Cross? Also the Rauner spokes person is a moron, he has a chance to say Rauner is doing well with women talking jobs and he blasts the down state numbers instead?
As for the “controversial” women’s vote I go with what is there. Whether it is Madigan (see attached) to LaRouche, to Duke in Louisiana, to the recall elections in Colorado last year or showing that Rahm was not viewed favorably - that is what I do - show what’s there when I poll. I know I will take heat when I come out with things like this. Been taking heat for a long time, no problem.
As for your offer to kiss my ass if I am right I will pass- would not be able to tell if your mooning or kissing.it.
All the best Mike
* OK, first of all, I excerpted the Sun-Times story on the Downstate numbers. If he has a beef with that, he should take it up with the Sun-Times.
Secondly, here’s how McKeon explained the highly unusual poll result showing women favored Rauner 55-38…
But McKeon stands by the numbers, saying the high percentage of cellphone interviews in his polling captures a better cross-section of women of all ages than other surveys that are more dependant on traditional land lines.
And McKeon said women want to hear more about good-paying jobs and the economy and believe that the Democratic message has been too focused on social issues and the minimum wage.
“Women are in bad shape in the work force and the Democrats, all they’re doing is pushing social issues, overwhelmingly,” McKeon argued.
* Thirdly, notice how he never explains why Quinn is supposedly leading Rauner among men by 23 points, 53-30. I mean, that’s more unusual than the women’s preference. By far.
From the 2010 exit poll…
* And lastly, I did indeed tell him yesterday that I would publicly kiss his behind if the exit polls show Quinn winning men by a huge margin and losing women by a huge margin while still managing to win the race. I figured it was a safe bet.
* Also, the attachments he sent are here…
* Regions defined
* 1983 letter from Mike Madigan
* 1980s era article on the LaRouchies
* 1991 articles on David Duke race
* 2013 Colorado recall press release and article
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Run away! Run away!
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rep. Marty Moylan debated his Republican opponent Mel Thillens yesterday…
In response to a question from debate moderator Joe Campagna, past president of the Park Ridge chamber, only one candidate said who he is supporting for governor.
“Bruce Rauner’s got to be the guy who goes to the governor’s mansion next,” Thillens said. “We’ve got to change the conversation in Springfield.”
Moylan didn’t declare.
“I’m concentrating on my election. … I’m worried about Marty Moylan.”
* The Rauner campaign react…
“Independent suburban voters are rejecting Pat Quinn and his plan to raise taxes right after the election. You know Pat Quinn’s in serious trouble when members of his own party won’t admit they support his re-election with under a week to go.” - Rauner spokesperson Mike Schrimpf
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* From a press release…
“With five days left before a close election, Pat Quinn is so bankrupt of ideas he has to steal one of Bruce Rauner’s accomplishments to get positive press coverage.” – Rauner spokesperson Mike Schrimpf
Fact: Bruce Rauner was an early supporter and helped create the plan for the recently launched UI Labs, a research and commercialization collaborative. The Chicago Tribune reported on it in January 2013:
“Some students and researchers prefer the city to a smaller community … so this could increase the quality of the faculty,” said Bruce Rauner, a prominent Chicago venture capitalist who has worked on the development of this plan. “This can drive better research.”
The intent is to develop a “junior year abroad program” as well, with the aim of attracting top students from overseas.
Fact: With five days left before a close election, Pat Quinn is so bankrupt of ideas he has to steal one of Bruce Rauner’s accomplishments to get positive press coverage. #desperate #shameless #timeforchange
But that Tribune story also noted…
The goal of this project, supported by Gov. Pat Quinn and Mayor Rahm Emanuel, is to retain the next generation of Illinois-trained innovators.
* From February, 2013…
The University of Illinois is taking its second big step in a month to sharply increase its involvement in a Chicago-area economy that arguably could use some help.
Gov. Pat Quinn will announce today in his State of the State speech that the Urbana-Champaign school, in partnership with its National Center for Supercomputing Applications and private companies, will be forming an Illinois Manufacturing Lab likely to be located in the central area of Chicago.
* From December, 2013…
Plans for Chicago to become a hub for advanced manufacturing technology are moving down the assembly line with people, money and pilot projects.
Gov. Pat Quinn, who laid out the idea for a manufacturing lab in February, is expected to announce this morning that it will be the first assignment for UI Labs and will begin pilot projects with 10 manufacturers.
Mr. Quinn’s Illinois Manufacturing Lab was launched with a $5 million commitment from the state. University of Illinois trustees are expected to vote today on providing matching funds for the project. Chicago manufacturing consultant Scott Miller has been named interim director of the IML.
More here.
…Adding… If Quinn did steal it, and he may have, he’s been stealing it for almost two years now.
…Adding More… From Quinn’s press release…
Governor Pat Quinn today was joined by U.S. Senator Dick Durbin, Mayor Rahm Emanuel and leadership from UI LABS to break ground on UI LABS’ future headquarters and the new Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation Institute (DMDII). The event is part of Governor Quinn’s agenda to create jobs and drive Illinois’ economy forward.
“I’ve made this facility a major priority for Illinois by personally making our case to both the White House and Secretary of Defense, as well as securing key private sector partners because I know how important this institution will be to revitalizing our manufacturing industry,” Governor Quinn said. “The Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation Institute will help keep Illinois’ economic comeback going. I’m pleased to break ground on this facility that will solidify Illinois’ position as a high-tech manufacturing hub, support our growing technology and innovation sectors and create jobs across the state.”
The Governor personally petitioned the Secretary of Defense twice and made the case to key White House officials about the benefits and importance of DMDII. The Governor also worked to bring key private sector partners into the initiative, including CAT, Deere & Company, Lockheed Martin, Boeing and many more.
…Adding Still More… The Rauner folks have been pushing back on this all morning and moments ago sent me a link to this Greg Hinz piece…
Mr. Rauner put out a rather overblown press release today terming today’s news “one of Bruce Rauner’s accomplishments.” That’s a bit overstated, and I’ll put that down to an overeager press aide. But it is an absolute fact that the first person I heard about UI Labs from a year and a half ago was Mr. Rauner, who had been quietly pushing the concept for some period.
The press release said Quinn stole Rauner’s “accomplishment.” That implies that Rauner did the whole thing, which is completely bogus. He didn’t say that Quinn stole his idea. He was most definitely in on the original idea. But the record is obvious that he did not “accomplish” this thing entirely on his own. Period.
Greg also wrote this…
Credit also goes to Mr. Quinn, Michael Sacks at World Business Chicago, U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and — legitimately — Mayor Rahm Emanuel. All were heavily involved in lining up companion state and local funding, and in pushing the Obama Administration to just say yes.
In 30 years of covering this kind of thing, I’ve not seen anything that’s drawn this much potential. Try working together some more, gang. And don’t blow it.
Exactly.
…Adding Quinn Response… From a press release…
Quinn Communications Chief Responds to Bruce Rauner’s Arrogant “It Was All Me” Claim
As Governor Pat Quinn stood with Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Senator Dick Durbin this morning to break ground on a new digital manufacturing hub that they worked together to make possible, Quinn for Illinois communications director Brooke Anderson responded to billionaire Bruce Rauner’s false and arrogant claim that this hard-fought manufacturing win for Illinois was all about Rauner:
“Only billionaire Bruce Rauner - who couldn’t name a single one of his companies that created any jobs - would resort to arrogantly taking credit for the Governor’s work and partnership with other leaders to bring this advanced manufacturing hub to Illinois.
“All week, Mr. Rauner has complained about good economic news that he views as detrimental to his doomsayer campaign. Fortunately for the people of Illinois and unfortunately for Mr. Rauner, Illinois is making a comeback and currently leading the Midwest in job creation.
“Given that Mr. Rauner’s whole career has been about eliminating jobs, making millions at other people’s expense and always passing the buck when things go wrong, we’re not surprised that he’d be exemplifying this behavior down to the very end. ”
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* Bruce Rushton at the Illinois Times writes about his good friend Dave McKinney…
Reporters get lied to every day. It’s part of the job. But if you’re a journalist with any gumption, you can’t work with people you can’t trust, and so McKinney had no choice but to quit after this bizarre shell game with his livelihood in the finishing weeks of a white-hot gubernatorial race.
McKinney will land on his feet somewhere, but maybe not in journalism. All newspapers talk a good game, but lots of editors are afraid of someone like McKinney who, naively or not, demands as much integrity from his employer as he does from himself. […]
In the end, then, we have learned nothing about either Rauner or McKinney. We have, however learned a great deal about the Sun-Times. The only thing that can salvage a shred of the newspaper’s credibility now is an explanation that makes sense coupled with a rolling head or two. You can’t suspend a reporter, then say you have that reporter’s back, then yank his byline, all the while proclaiming that everything is on the up-and-up. If McKinney’s marriage was going to cost him his job, he should have been told before the wedding. Instead, the Sun-Times told him that everything would be fine, then cut him off at the knees on the back end.
* McKinney’s former Sun-Times colleague Neil Steinberg had his own take…
The news was nauseating when it first hit, but now it’s settled down a bit. I don’t know all the intricacies of what occurred, just what I’ve gleaned from the buzz going around. So my take is both half-informed and skewed from someone who has worked at the Sun-Times for 27 years and did not quit on the countless occasions when I ran into aspects of the business that made me wince.
A previous owner, David Radler used to push for all sorts of squishy stories to benefit his pal, Rod Blagojevich; the trick was to accept the assignment, and then quietly bury it into a Dumpster and forget about it, so ethics weren’t compromised. It worked; Radler’s long gone and Rod’s long gone—both men wound up in prison—but I’m still here. To me, the still-being-at-the-paper part is important. Rauner getting Dave fired and Dave quitting are functionally the same thing—he’s gone either way—and while I admire Dave as much as anybody, I can’t fight the creeping feeling he played into the hands of the Evil We All Oppose.
A few things to keep in mind: A) the newspaper that many are castigating for supposedly caving to Rauner is the same newspaper that just last week was happily publishing McKinney’s sharp pieces shredding Rauner; B) the endorsement of Rauner, though regrettable, is a different beast entirely than the supposed pressure he put on reporters. Every owner in the history of newspapering ballyhoos candidates he likes, a little or a lot, though no one is arguing that this was smoothly done; C) Rauner’s accusations that McKinney’s wife, a Democratic operative, was somehow driving the stories, while ridiculous—a story either is solid or it’s not; it hardly matters who suggested it, not that I have any reason to doubt Dave’s version of events—had a veneer of seriousness that justified investigation, and being nudged off your beat for a week is not, in itself, a big deal. I was suspended for a week last year for what struck me as a truly tenuous reason. But I didn’t tell anybody and few noticed (sigh) making it a whole lot easier to come back and start doing my job again, which is the route I wish Dave had chosen to take since while it is courageous to make a stand for journalistic integrity, you can only self-immolate once, there’s a dramatic flash and then ashes but what have you accomplished? The bottom line is, D) I sincerely believe that had McKinney managed to just step around this mess and gone back to doing his job, an important life skill in journalism, instead of pouring gasoline over himself, and the paper, and striking a match, the whole thing would be over by now and he’d be back to kicking Rauner’s ass, which is what this is supposedly all about; E) I wish this were “The Front Page” era so everybody involved could just go out and get drunk together, shake their heads at their collective stupidity, and go back to work the next day. But F) it’s not. The only upside I see in the real world is that G) Bruce Rauner revealed himself even more starkly as the ruthless, vindictive creature that he most certainly is, eager to try to squelch a story by leaning hard on the little folk reporting it. I can’t imagine anybody wanting that as governor. So maybe it’ll do some ultimate good, though the sting will linger on this one, and now we have to find somebody who thinks it’s a good career move to spend time in Springfield.
Thoughts?
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Rauner with 2-1 money lead over Quinn
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Republican Bruce Rauner and Democrat Pat Quinn are on pace to spend more than $100 million on the Illinois governor’s race, doubling the state’s previous record in a closely watched contest featuring heavy investment by business and labor.
As of Wednesday evening, Rauner had collected $63.75 million and Quinn had raised $29.3 million — the balance tilted to the Republican side largely because the Winnetka equity investor has dipped into his own fortune for $26.1 million. […]
Campaign disclosure reports show Rauner has raised his money from more than 8,500 separate donations. But 23 individuals or groups account for donations of $100,000 or more, generating more than $47 million of the $63 million he’s raised. Rauner sits atop the list with his own $26.1 million — nearly as much as Quinn has raised overall.
Rauner’s top six donors, excluding himself, account for $15.2 million: the Republican Governors Association with $8.6 million; Chicago hedge fund CEO Ken Griffin with $4.6 million; longtime conservative donor Richard Uihlein and his Uline Corp. with $640,000; the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association with $565,000; and Rauner former equity firm business partner Edgar Jannotta Jr. and Elizabeth Christie, another donor to GOP causes, with $405,300 each.
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Waukegan school strike finally ends
Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Things got tense in Waukegan Tuesday night when an angry audience confronted the local school board over a three-week teachers strike…
Tempers flared in the north suburbs Tuesday night as anger and frustration over a three-week teachers’ strike boil over.
Despite extra security, metal detectors and barricades for crowd control, the Waukegan school board abruptly ended its meeting. […]
When the school board announced the time allotted for public comment would be shorter than expected, tempers flared.
Board members tried to conduct the meeting, but the crowd shouted them down. What happened next eliciting even more anger.
And…
In response to jeers, school board member Victoria Torres leapt off the stage and into the crowd, where she scolded teachers and parents.
“Alright, let’s go! I’m a parent too! Yeah, sit down and shut up. Yeah, shut up!” Torres told the crowd. […]
“Her conduct was unacceptable, unnecessary, unprofessional; and I think the only thing she should do now is resign her position,” Waukegan Mayor Wayne Motley told a local CBS outlet. “I will contact the board members. I think that she set negotiations back two weeks.”
Raw video is here. Torres apologized the next day.
This strike has torn open some major wounds, as teacher strikes usually do. But quite a few politicians embraced the striking teachers, putting even more pressure on the school board.
* Yesterday, Gov. Quinn dispatched his state school board chairman Gery Chico to help mediate and the strike was finally settled last night. From a joint statement from the Board of Education and the Waukegan Teachers’ Council…
Shortly before midnight tonight, the Board of Education for Waukegan Community Unit School District # 60 and the Waukegan Teachers’ Council reached a tentative agreement on a three-year contract.
All schools will remain closed on October 30 and October 31, as both parties review the agreement. Pending a ratification by teachers on Thursday, teachers will return to work on Friday to help prepare schools for re-opening to students on Monday, November 3.
“This tentative agreement represents not only a compromise between the Union and the Board, but an end to what was a long, trying process for all parties involved,” said Waukegan Teachers’ Council President Kathy Schwarz. “We are grateful to the entire Waukegan community that struggled with us through these difficult times. We would also like to thank Governor Pat Quinn and Illinois State Board of Education Chairman Gery Chico for their assistance during the conclusion of contract talks. After years of instability, we are hopeful that this agreement will be the first step in giving our students the schools they deserve.”
“It is with great delight that we acknowledge having reached a Tentative Agreement with our teachers that will return our students to their classrooms. These last four weeks have been difficult for everyone involved. Both the Board of Education and I have witnessed first hand a great passion for education from parents, students and community members.
We eagerly look forward to working together as a community for the betterment of our students,” said Waukegan Superintendent Dr. Donaldo R. Batiste, and we thank the many community partners who came forward to offer invaluable support and assistance. Particular gratitude is extended to Governor Quinn, ISBE Chairman Chico, State Superintendent Koch, and Regional Superintendent Wood,” said Superintendent, Dr. Donaldo R. Batiste.
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* Ted Siedle at Forbes…
In short, I learned from my experience with Rauner that you don’t have to be brilliant to be successful in the silly business of buying and melding together established businesses—businesses you really know very little about—using state workers’ retirement savings. Access to public pension assets is the key prerequisite.
Trust me, any money manager with workers’ monies committed to funding his professional development for a protracted period of time, eventually—assuming he’s reasonably intelligent and capable of learning from his mistakes—will stumble upon a winner. Worse case, he’ll lose much of the workers savings over the course of the standard ten-year lock-up commitment period and pocket millions in asset-based management fees along the way.
Just being around all that pension cha-ching, tweaking purchase and sale agreements and engaging in thinly-disclosed rampant self-dealing virtually guarantees the manager blessed with Other People’s Money under his care will end up wealthy himself. Call it a “wealth transfer.”
Better still, thanks to private equity secrecy agreements, your clients may never know just how much you profited potentially at their expense.
Read the whole thing.
*** UPDATE 1 *** The Rauner campaign responds by attacking the author…
EDWARD SIEDLE IS A UNION ATTACK DOG
Siedle Wrote Articles Attacking Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo For Investing In Private Equity Funds. “In an online column for Forbes on April 4, Siedle blasted Raimondo for dramatically increasing both risk and fees by steering a sizable chunk of Rhode Island’s $7-billion state pension fund into ‘alternative investments,’ including hedge funds. He accused her of enabling a ‘Wall Street feeding frenzy.’” (Mike Stanton, “Former SEC Watchdog Edward Siedle Criticizes Rhode Island Treasurer’s Pension Strategies,” Providence Journal, 6/30/13)
Shortly After Attacking Raimondo, Siedle Was Paid $20,000 By A Union Hostile To The Treasurer. “A month later, he was having lunch in Providence at Capriccio with Rhode Island union officials and retirees who had read his columns, including two top officials of the state’s largest public employees union, Council 94 of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. Shortly thereafter, Council 94 hired Siedle for $20,000 to investigate Rhode Island’s pension funds. Siedle declined to reveal his fee, but Council 94 president J. Michael Downey confirmed it after questions from The Providence Journal.” (Mike Stanton, “Former SEC Watchdog Edward Siedle Criticizes Rhode Island Treasurer’s Pension Strategies,” Providence Journal, 6/30/13)
Forbes Forced Sielde To Stop Writing About Rhode Island. “Raimondo immediately attacked Siedle’s credibility and motives. ‘This was a bait and switch,’ said Raimondo spokeswoman Joy Fox. ‘He sold himself as a journalist while pitching a local union for business.’ Raimondo complained to Forbes, which says it has asked Siedle, an unpaid contributor since 2006, to ‘cease writing about Rhode Island.’” (Mike Stanton, “Former SEC Watchdog Edward Siedle Criticizes Rhode Island Treasurer’s Pension Strategies,” Providence Journal, 6/30/13)
*** UPDATE 2 *** The author has responded to the Rauner camp’s claims…
While Gina Raimondo, Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (and candidate for Governor) did indeed complain to Forbes about my writings exposing her Wall Street agenda, Forbes never asked me to stop writing about her. I have written a dozen articles on Forbes about her since her complaint which have been read by hundreds of thousands.
Check the record Bruce before you embarrass yourself with bogus allegations.
What about the red flags I’ve identified at GTCR, conflicts and secret dealings? Will you make public the potentially damning evidence?
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Do you believe in magic?
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* If you believe this about the Sun-Times’ newest EXCLUSIVE POLL…
The survey also showed Quinn was hurting when it came to the women vote – with 38 percent of the women polled saying they’d vote for Quinn when compared to 55 percent of women backing Rauner.
And if you believe that Jim Oberweis is leading Dick Durbin among women 50-41…
And if you believe this…
The survey, conducted Wednesday in live telephone interviews by McKeon & Associates, shows Quinn and Rauner each with 45 percent of the Downstate vote – a segment of the state that’s traditionally loyal to Republicans.
[Actually, I think that’s supposed to be southern Illinois.]
And if you believe that Gov. Pat Quinn is leading among males 53-30…
And if you believe that Tom Cross is taking 27 percent of the African-American vote and is leading Mike Frerichs among Latinos 40-37…
Well, then it truly is silly season and I feel sorry for you.
* This is the same newspaper, you may recall, which published (on its front page, no less) the results of a 2006 poll showing Rod Blagojevich leading Judy Baar Topinka by 30 points, 56-26.
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* From Andy Stone at Facebook…
In the hotly contested Illinois governor’s race, both Governor Pat Quinn and challenger Bruce Rauner have agreed to hold Facebook Q&As and answer questions directly from the voters. Each Q&A will happen on WLS-TV/ABC7Chicago’s Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/abc7chicago.
Gov. Quinn will hold his Facebook Q&A on Wednesday, October 29, at 8 p.m. CT / 9 p.m. ET.
Bruce Rauner will hold his Facebook Q&A on Thursday, October 30 at 8 p.m. CT / 9 p.m. ET.
Using Facebook’s Q&A tool, people from across Illinois will have the opportunity to ask a question of Governor Pat Quinn and challenger Bruce Rauner and watch the conversation play out in real time.
More information below:
https://www.facebook.com/abc7chicago/photos/a.419473366161.196130.165583971161/10152861092066162/?type=1
* Meanwhile WTTW is planning to use social media to enhance its US Senate debate coverage tonight. From Jay Smith, Supervising Producer, Chicago Tonight…
Hi Rich,
I hope you are well. I wanted to let you know that our forum with Dick Durbin and Jim Oberweis will be live streamed on our web site [tonight.] It will also be aired on Public TV and Radio stations statewide, including:
TV: WQPT – Quad Cities, WSIU – Carbondale, WILL – Champaign/Urbana, WTVP – Peoria, WEIU- Charleston
Radio: WBEZ - Chicago, WVIK – Quad Cities, Tri States Public Radio – Macomb, WGLT- Normal, WSIU – Carbondale, WNIU – Dekalb/Rockford, WUIS – Springfield, WCBU – Peoria.
We also will have a twitter stream widget on our web site, pulling in selected live tweeted commentary. Let me know if you’re going to be live tweeting and we can pull you in to that tool. We are also experimenting with using some Twitter content during the program.
Take care,
Jay
WTTW.com. The debate begins at 7 o’clock.
* And, finally…
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A friend snapped this pic and sent it to me earlier today…
Apparently, it’s one of those “mixed marriages.”
For those of you who don’t know, freshman Rep. Marty Moylan (D-Des Plaines) is attempting to fend off hard-charging opponent Mel Thillens (R-Park Ridge) in the 55th House District.
* The Question: Caption?
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Circling back on guns, gay marriage
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* When I first posted this ad, it was still just a YouTube video, but some of you thought it was one of the better ads of the season. Well, the Gun Violence Prevention IE PAC (G-PAC) says it raised $200,000 to get the spot on the air in Chicago. That ain’t much, particularly since the airwaves are absolutely packed right now with campaign commercials. But it might be striking enough to stand out…
* Meanwhile, from Equality Illinois…
After the Illinois House failed to pass the marriage bill in May 2013, Equality Illinois announced its Fight Back for Marriage campaign, making the commitment to spend $500,000 by the November 2014 election in the face of threats from marriage opponents to defeat the bill and oust the legislators who supported it.
By the end of the 2014 election cycle, the organization will have spent over $610,000, including:
Over $150,000 in direct contributions to candidates by the Equality Illinois Political Action Committee, the political arm of Equality Illinois,
Nearly $100,000 in a sophisticated information campaign to educate the electorate, and
An unprecedented targeted get-out-the-vote effort, with more than 400 Equality Illinois PAC volunteers making more than 60,000 persuasion, identification, or turn-out phone calls in support of Gov. Pat Quinn and other LGBT-supportive candidates
Discuss.
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* Joe Cahill on Gov. Pat Quinn’s month-long goodies tour…
But lately Mr. Quinn has authorized some big-money discretionary grants to companies that agree to expand in Illinois. Like Amazon, many had strong business reasons to add staff here without state funding. This month alone, the governor gave a total of $22 million to four Illinois-based companies. We’re talking direct transfers of state money here, not loans or tax credits.
I know what you’re thinking, because I’m thinking the same thing: The governor is giving away our money to generate favorable headlines about new jobs in Illinois a month before voters decide whether or not to give him another term.
The commerce spokesman acknowledges a halo effect. “In most cases, I think the timing largely had to do with the companies and when they were able to go forward,” he says, but adds, “We have a good story to tell — and do I want to tell it before Nov. 4? Yes. Is that a crime?”
Joe doesn’t identify the spokesman and agrees with the spokesman that it’s not illegal.
I dunno about that. At minimum, an admission like this is bound to create an uproar over an inappropriate mixture of government and campaigning at DCEO.
And, really, what kind of a doofus admits to election day motivations for pushing state corporate subsidies out the door after the lousy year his governor has had with the 2010 NRI program? And less than a week before election day at that?
This ain’t good, campers.
*** UPDATE *** From the Rauner campaign…
“Pat Quinn is already under federal investigation for misusing millions in October of 2010, and now it looks like he’s pumped out half a billion dollars this month to boost his campaign once again. He’s throwing around taxpayer money in October in the hopes of raising your taxes in November. Throwing around more money in the last six days won’t change the harm Pat Quinn has caused Illinois over the last six years.” - Rauner spokesperson Mike Schrimpf
And adds…
As of today, Pat Quinn has doled out nearly $500 million in the last four weeks. In the last two days alone, he doled out $36 million.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Well, at least now we know who the doofus is. From an AP report posted yesterday…
While Amazon’s Misener said the timing of his company’s announcement was “a complete coincidence,” a spokesman for the state Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity said that agency had been in regular contact with Cronus Chemicals hoping the announcement would happen before the election.
“We have some good news here, and, yes, we wanted everybody to know about that before the election,” DCEO spokesman David Roeder said. “I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that.”
How brazen can he get?
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Rate JBT’s TV ad
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This is her positive ad. She’s also running a “response ad,” but I don’t yet have that one. Anyway, here you go…
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Stupidly illegal
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This is just one more reason from the mountain of reasons why Gov. Pat Quinn should never have allowed Chicago aldermen to pick which groups would get anti-violence program money in 2010. Too many aldermen really are this goofy, or worse…
A Chicago alderman may be in hot water after she offered people the chance to win prizes if they vote.
Fifth Ward Alderman Leslie Hairston has since pulled the post off her Facebook page, but not after it caught the attention of the Cook County State’s Attorney. […]
The post on the alderman’s Facebook page went up Monday telling residents they could win raffle prizes if they go to the polls.
Hairston’s instructions: “Vote–you’re eligible no matter the candidate, then put their name and contact information on the back of their voter receipt…. And stop by the Fifth Ward office and drop it off.”
Among the raffle prizes were gift cards from area businesses, including Walgreens, Potbelly’s and Starbucks. Plus, $100 visa gift cards.
* From the state election code…
Sec. 29-1. Vote buying.
Any person who knowingly gives, lends or promises to give or lend any money or other valuable consideration to any other person to influence such other person to vote or to register to vote or to influence such other person to vote for or against any candidate or public question to be voted upon at any election shall be guilty of a Class 4 felony.
Pretty darned clear.
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Keep calm and comment on
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The morning videos have mostly worked as intended - giving most of us something to agree on before proceeding with the divisive events of the day.
Even so, things are starting to get a little tense in comments as election day draws ever nearer.
* I’ve enjoyed covering and watching this campaign season more than any in my lifetime. I wasn’t sure why until this morning, when I was hanging out with Oscar the Puppy. He’s kept me calm, he’s allowed me to laugh at the absurdities without getting overly worked up.
So, here’s a pic I took not long after I had that little revelation…
Feel any better?
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A big Wednesday oppo dump
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Uh-oh…
A campaign committee formed last week to support the Libertarian Party candidate for governor is headed by a convicted felon.
The Liberty for Illinois committee has sent out direct mail pieces in support of gubernatorial candidate Chad Grimm’s third party bid against Republican Bruce Rauner and Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.
The committee, which has received all of its $200,000 in funding from the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150, is headed by Michael Bonivel, of Chicago, who spent at least two years in prison on two separate drug-related convictions.
Bonivel’s involvement in the race for governor is the latest twist in a push by the Operating Engineers to dilute support for Rauner among conservative voters. The Joliet-based labor organization already gave Grimm $30,000 to help tilt a hotly contested race in Quinn’s favor.
* Yikes…
Court documents reveal that Bruce Rauner personally authorized a transaction which appears to have involved the flushing away of state pension money as part of a plan designed to allow Rauner and his fellow GTCR principals to escape liability in nursing home lawsuits.
* Hmm…
I recently briefly examined GTCR’s SEC filings. Below are my observations about the industry generally and Rauner’s firm specifically. […]
The litany of permissible conflict of interest scenarios (many of which are commonplace throughout private equity) detailed in Bruce Rauner’s firm SEC filings, should be disturbing to any so-called sophisticated investor. Unfortunately, public pensions routinely consent to such potentially harmful conflicts either because they don’t read, don’t fully comprehend the oblique disclosures, or simply don’t care that politically-connected insiders may be profiting at the expense of stakeholders.
…Adding… One more…
But this story of how someone appeared to get a job with political pull and then ended up on the payroll of the state’s Executive Ethics Commission does have a certain only-in-Illinois quality to it.
The story involves a woman named Gretchen Tucka. She was referenced several times as “Employee 218″ in a report by Illinois Executive Inspector General Ricardo Meza that absolutely excoriated IDOT, charging that hundreds of people had been improperly hired by the department under Govs. Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn.
…Adding… I know I said “one more,” but here’s another one…
Before entrusting anti-crime program funds in North Lawndale, the Quinn administration acted on the advice of then-Ald. Sharon Denise Dixon (24th), picking the non-profit Better Boys Foundation as the “lead agency” for NRI in North Lawndale.
In February, the Illinois auditor general’s office reviewed about $388,000 that the Better Boys Foundation oversaw and concluded that 46 percent of the money went for what “appeared to be unallowable” expenses or there was no documentation to back up what was done with those dollars.
On Tuesday — more than eight months since the auditor general’s report was completed — a state spokeswoman said the foundation provided it with documentation and “we are in the process of reviewing it to determine if any funds will need to be recovered.”
In any case, two top foundation executives are no longer in their jobs. That’s because both former executive director John Holton and LaTonya Lumpkin — whose resume notes that she directed NRI in North Lawndale for the Better Boys Foundation — have landed jobs in Quinn’s administration. They were put in positions exempt from merit-hiring, anti-patronage rules, state records show.
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Will it help or will it backfire?
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The National Journal on Bruce Rauner’s persistent outreach to African-American voters…
Democrats are perplexed by Rauner’s strategy, assuming it’s as much a play to win over moderate suburban white voters as it is to actually win over black votes. Even one in-state Republican operative wondered why Rauner was spending valuable October campaign time in overwhelmingly Democratic precincts, given that he needs to win over undecided suburbanites in more politically-competitive territory.
“What Rauner is trying to do is taking a 90-10 electorate, and making it 88-12,” said a former adviser to Rahm Emanuel about the Republican’s focus on black voters. “That’s a waste of your time when there’s a 60-40 [suburban] electorate that you can make 50-50.” […]
Even Republicans working for Rauner privately acknowledged that despite their candidate’s optimism, they’re not going to reshape long-standing voting patterns that have consigned Republicans to a sliver of the black vote. His campaign has set a goal of winning 20 percent of the vote in Chicago, something that can be accomplished with only small inroads among minority voters. But they also hope that by highlighting Rauner’s minority outreach, he’ll improve his showing among softer Republican voters—like married women in the suburbs and moderates. The Chicago Tribune poll, which showed Rauner narrowly ahead, reported that his gains had “been driven primarily by white suburban women, a voting bloc considered socially moderate but fiscally conservative.”
Indeed, Rauner is part of a leading wave of candidates who are beginning to engage in minority outreach, even if it doesn’t render immediate political dividends. Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus has prioritized minority outreach in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, and has opened field offices meant to reach African-American voters in Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, and Florida.
* If it was all just a made-for-TV show to convince suburban women that he’s an open-minded moderate, then I might agree. But Rauner’s campaign and the IL GOP are also doing quite a bit of other outreach that suburban women won’t ever hear about, including significant amounts of direct mail, black and Latino radio/TV ads, etc.
He is, in other words, forcefully and repeatedly reminding the Democratic Party’s base that there’s an election going on. It would be akin to Democrats blanketing Wheaton with a high-dollar, shotgun-style GOTV program.
Not to mention that African-American preachers - as a class - aren’t exactly beloved by the hardcore Republican “base.” There’s some downside for Rauner here.
But, hey, maybe it’ll work. I give him credit for the outreach, at least. He has, without a doubt, forcefully expressed more high-profile concerns about the economic and social justice plights of minorities than most any other Republican we’ve seen in this state. Props for that.
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* From the Weekly Standard…
Two Illinois voters say their attempts to vote early for Republicans on an electronic voting machine were registered as votes for Democrats—and they say have the video evidence to prove it.
* The video is starting to go viral…
But scroll down through the hype and you get to this…
Eventually, both voters were able to vote for the Republican candidates, as they say they preferred. They said the screen appeared to be poorly calibrated, so that while pressing anywhere in the box for a Democrat registered a vote for the Democrat, only pressing the bottom half of the Republican box did so for the Republican. The only way to make the correct vote, they said, was to press the incorrectly checked box to “uncheck” it, then press low in the Republican’s box. The voters say they were able to figure this out without calling over an election judge for help.
If you watch the video again, you can see that the person pressed right on the line dividing the two candidates. And they figured it out without assistance.
* More…
Jon Schweppe, a spokesman for the Schilling campaign, says he called an official on the Illinois state board of elections on Friday afternoon about the voters’ complaints.
“I spoke with Bruce Brown at the Illinois State Board of Elections,” Schweppe says. “He called me back about an hour later after speaking with the Rock Island County Clerk’s office. He told me he suggested a full recalibration to fix the problem. He said it was a common problem and easy to fix.”
This really needs to be addressed by the State Board of Elections. Calibrations errors are easily overcome, but why are the machines going out of calibration in the first place? Shouldn’t there be regular testing throughout each day of voting if this is a problem?
* Also, a judge ruled against the GOP about another issue in the county…
Rock Island County Clerk Karen Kinney addressed concerns about her handling of absentee ballots after a judge ruled in her favor Monday.
Kinney’s office has been the target of a Republican Party attack that not only is she opening ballots early and counting them but that her voting machines are calibrated in such a way that switches votes from Republican to Democrat.
Rock Island County Circuit Judge Lori Lefstein denied the GOP’s emergency injunction on the counting of absentee ballots.
“There is nothing wrong in this office,” Kinney, a Democrat, said afterward.
Keep in mind that the county clerk is facing reelection, and the unions have been pushing early voting very hard in RICO, so a bit of misdirection and over-playing of relatively minor problems is to be expected, like this press release from the IL GOP…
ILGOP Demands Action After Vote-Switching Video Surfaces
In wake of shocking vote-switching video in Rock Island County, ILGOP demands clerk stop pretending voting machines are calibrated correctly
Schneider: “The Illinois Republican Party will take any and all necessary legal action to ensure that every single voter’s voice is heard.”
Rock Island, IL – The Illinois Republican Party expressed shock and outrage over a video that surfaced today showing voting machines in Rock Island County calibrated to switch votes from Republican to Democrat.
The Rock Island County Clerk had previously dismissed multiple complaints of vote-switching as false and has yet to address a plan to fix her voting machines following the incident captured in the video.
“Earlier this week, we expressed deep concerns over reports of early voting machines in Rock Island County calibrated in a way that switches people’s votes from Republican to Democrat – similar to recent reports out of Cook County,” ILGOP Chairman Tim Schneider said. “The Rock Island Clerk ignored our concerns and claimed no problem existed. Following today’s shocking video, we renew our call on the Rock Island Clerk to immediately investigate the calibration of voting machines in the county. The Illinois Republican Party will take any and all necessary legal action to ensure that every single voter’s voice is heard.”
Despite the over-heated rhetoric, it can’t be said enough that if these machines have screen calibration problems then local officials need to make sure they’re tested throughout the day.
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* Bruce Rauner was asked yesterday what risk Illinois was placed in by Gov. Pat Quinn’s refusal to support an Ebola-related travel ban. His response…
“I think its’ a very significant risk. Why should we allow foreigners coming from the three countries where the Ebola virus is widespread? It’s a massive problem. Why should we allow them to get visas and come to the United States? We should do everything we can to protect American citizens, Illinois citizens from this virus.”
* Kinda harsh language, which I then used in a question posed to Rauner’s press secretary…
Since Quinn can’t legally stop foreigners from coming to Illinois, how is his non-support of a travel ban imperiling Illinoisans?
* His response…
The citizens of Illinois expect their governor to advocate on their behalf with the federal government to improve quality of life and defend their safety. Just as he advocates for an Ebola travel ban, Bruce will advocate for many federal actions that benefit Illinois, including comprehensive immigration reform, federal disaster assistance and funding for the Army Corps of Engineers. Governor Quinn should reconsider his opposition to an Ebola travel ban.
Your thoughts on this? Would it make much difference if Quinn broke with the administration and called for a travel ban?
* Meanwhile, the Tribune editorialized for a travel ban…
But if we’re going to err, let’s err on the side of caution. Given the lethality of Ebola and the virus’ 21-day incubation period, a quarantine rule for medical professionals and others who have had contact with the disease in those high-risk countries seems reasonable.
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Good morning!
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I hope you’re ready for a rock ‘n soul morning jolt here, kids, because you just gotta crank it higher…
Feeling that should make you move
Sounds that should help you groove
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